Discussion SuperCoach Pre-Preseason + Mid Price Madness for 2016

[Manikato1]

All this speculation, what if Lyon throws Fyfe Foward?
That will throw a spanner in the works. Had been spoken about and it wouldn't surprise me if he does play fwd more to get through the season in better shape

That is the problem with Ross Lying. It is hard to work out what he means and what he does. He does have a tell however. Here is the scenario.

It is Monday or Tuesday and important player X got a bit of injury on Saturday. Journo asks "Player X got a bit of a niggle on the weekend how is that looking for this week?"

Ross Lying answers "We expect him to be available" Deciphered means got no idea but could easily be a late withdrawal.

OR..... Ross Lying answers "Player X has an ankle injury and will not be available this week but should be good for the week after. Deciphered that means Player X has a serious injury and is no chance this week and I have no idea when he will be available.

He has done this before and most recently when Fyfe was injured later in the season this year. It almost made me fall off my chair when he actually conceded that one of his players would not be available that early in the week. He just does not do that normally. I suspected immediately Fyfe had some serious issue.

Fyfe also featured is his best lie. When Fyfe popped his shoulder in Rd 3 2012? (correct me if wrong) Ross Lying stated on a Monday to the press it was not a major issue and that they expected him to be available. History now tells us he did the classic late withdrawal. Then after playing one more game had surgery.

Ross, Ross, Ross.............you talk so much and say so little. If there was an Olympic event for that you would be a gold medal contender.

 

[Manikato1]

Hmmm. Bennell is the younger player so probably going to increase his mid time, but he's at a new club so that always raises some question marks.

Bennell had 89% TOG last year and similar numbers before that. He has no upside IMO re TOG.

 

[BC]

It's no secret Rossy is going to change things up next year.
In his last presser (one of the great open pressers i've seen) "Does that make sense".
He pretty much conceded there game style needs to change to score more points as it doesn't get the job done in september.
I think all the talk of Fyfe playing more fwd has gotten a little out of hand tbh
Due to less interchanges i think he'll get rested up fwd more often but when push come to shove he'll be there with Sandi tapping it down his throat in the guts more often than not, and being rested fwd is better that sitting on the pine.
He's a contested jet. He'll score tons in any position.
"Does that make sense"

 

[Snowman]

Don't generally like starting midprice/stepping stone type mids, but if the rumours of Omeara&Crouch starting low300k! are true Hmm...going have to at least consider the option if they're fit and ready to go rnd1.

 

[Drew]

From the HS podcast below...they mentioned some starting prices which may be of interest.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...k/news-story/b50573ade67bde5372a68035794f7c6a

DEF

H Shaw 607K
J McVeigh 542K
B Smith 415K
M Jaensch 407K
N Malceski 383K

MID

R Sloane 569K
J Selwood 565K
S Sidebottom 562K
T Rockliff 550K
L Parker 538K
T Boak 535K

FWD ̣- All have DPP

L Montagna 599K
H Bennell 548K
M Barlow 505K
T Greene 446K

Could see myself starting all of Rocky, J.Selwood and Sloane next year. Sloane probably the riskiest, only really one year with what you'd call a keeper mid average, but still showed last year he had a big top end so worth the punt.

Will be watching Seedsman early next year, be interesting to see the role he plays at the Crows and if he's solid best 22. From what i've read it sounds like he'll be a running half back - wing role, could make him viable in SC if he wins the ball and runs it forward and gets score assists from kicking it into the forward line.

Anyone heard whether Newnes will maintain DPP status? Could be worthy of a starting spot in defence again this year i reckon.

 

[happydays]

Travis Cloke anyone

Great analysis.
I like him.

 

[Junior Wölf]

^ most think that Newnes will be just a Mid sadly

 

[kakarot]

^ most think that Newnes will be just a Mid sadly

Yeah, played on a wing too much to keep DEF status I reckon.

Would be interesting to see Montagna's heat maps. Only kicked 8.9 (less than Steven), and only registered 6 goal assists. Lots of inside 50s, but less than Steven again. I guess it's a bit like what happened to Danyle Pearce this year, who led the AFL for inside 50s in 2014 to get granted FWD status in 2015.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

Great analysis.
I like him.

lol..... 17 games for an average of 69, which can't be blamed on anything other than Cloke being awful. Scored 100+ twice in 2015. I really hope you are both being sarcastic!

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Essendon's Mitch Brown is eligible as a DEF/FWD in SuperCoach 2016.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

TOP OF THE POPS

Heath Shaw (GWS) $607,800

Matthew Boyd (WB) $560,900

Jarrad McVeigh (Syd) $542,600 (Mid DPP)

Alex Rance (Rich) $523,700

Tom McDonald (Melb) $517,500

Bachar Houli (Rich) $516,100

Corey Enright (Geel) $516,000

Michael Hurley (Ess) $511,500

Rory Laird (Adel) $506,200

Kade Simpson (Carl) $500,200

MAKE OR BREAK PICKS

Paul Seedsman (Adel) $324,700 (Mid DPP)

Jake Carlisle (StK) $371,400 (Fwd DPP)

Nick Malceski (GCS) $383,800

Scott Thompson (NM) $396,700

Chris Yarran (Rich) $400,100

ROOKIES TO WATCH

Aaron Francis (Ess) $198,300 (Mid DPP)

Andy Otten (Adel) $148,400

Ciaran Byrne (Carl) $123,900

Riley Bonner (PtA) $117,300

Mitch Brown (Ess) $117,300 (Fwd DPP)

 

[Johnsy44]

Is Byrne still fwd/def?

 

[freowho]

Don't generally like starting midprice/stepping stone type mids, but if the rumours of Omeara&Crouch starting low300k! are true Hmm...going have to at least consider the option if they're fit and ready to go rnd1.

I think if people are considering O'Meara and Crouch they would have to consider Daniel Wells.

 

[Jurn Stern]

ROOKIES TO WATCH

Aaron Francis (Ess) $198,300 (Mid DPP)

Andy Otten (Adel) $148,400

Ciaran Byrne (Carl) $123,900

Riley Bonner (PtA) $117,300

Mitch Brown (Ess) $117,300 (Fwd DPP)[/QUOTE]

Has anyone else noticed that the injury priced players seem to be getting a bigger discount than normal? I thought 0 games meant a 30% discount, but it seems like we've seen some 40 and even 50% discounts. I'm keen to see Libba's price.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

ROOKIES TO WATCH

Aaron Francis (Ess) $198,300 (Mid DPP)

Andy Otten (Adel) $148,400

Ciaran Byrne (Carl) $123,900

Riley Bonner (PtA) $117,300

Mitch Brown (Ess) $117,300 (Fwd DPP)

Has anyone else noticed that the injury priced players seem to be getting a bigger discount than normal? I thought 0 games meant a 30% discount, but it seems like we've seen some 40 and even 50% discounts. I'm keen to see Libba's price.

I was about to post about what a steal Otten would be at $148k, but then I looked him up.



Those numbers are pretty bad. A few things caught my eye.

1. This is his 9th season. I personally thought he was much younger, so I think what we have seen so far is what we will see from now on.
2. He has averaged 9.5 games across his career. There are two returns of 0 and only 2 games in his debut season, but even if you discard those as outliers his durability looks shocking.
3. His seasons in order of best to worst - 76, 76, 75, 64, 55, 26, 0, 0 with the most recent "ok" season being 2013. Consistency looks to be an issue season by season, but even his ceiling is pretty low.

Even as a cash cow he will be a slow burn with scores like that. A slow burn and concerns about durability makes him pretty unappealing (which I am surprised about!)

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Gary Ablett is set for his first full intensity training session on Monday.

 

[freowho]

ROOKIES TO WATCH

Aaron Francis (Ess) $198,300 (Mid DPP)

Andy Otten (Adel) $148,400

Ciaran Byrne (Carl) $123,900

Riley Bonner (PtA) $117,300

Mitch Brown (Ess) $117,300 (Fwd DPP)

Has anyone else noticed that the injury priced players seem to be getting a bigger discount than normal? I thought 0 games meant a 30% discount, but it seems like we've seen some 40 and even 50% discounts. I'm keen to see Libba's price.

I'm in favour. I felt last year that most coaches were taking the same cash cows at the start of the year.
Excuse me for a moment while I use a golf analogy. A golf hole that looks difficult from the tee with lots of bunkers and water is a poor hole because players stop taking risks. Most will play the hole defensively and it becomes boring. A golf hole where the trouble is more subtle is more fun because you will get more variety in how players attack the hole. Some will start taking more risks because they don't notice the trouble, some will take risks depending on the conditions or their form, some will always play defensively. Often 1 well placed bunker is enough to separate the good and bad players.
A few years ago supercoach raised the prices of all the first round draft picks because everyone was taking the best players but I think they raised the prices too much and priced them out of the game. On the surface more cash cows to choose from appears to make the game too easy. There will always be half a dozen obvious picks. But after those first half a dozen there should be genuine debate and even confusion about which of the other cash cows are the best to take. Just as I am Cursed has posted, Andy Otten at $148,400 now becomes a consideration, but not a lock. At $200,000 he was out of the picture.The best coaches will pick the best cash cows even if we have 50 to choose from. Meanwhile the bad coaches will pick the bad cash cows but they will still have more fun because the game is more fun.

 

[Jurn Stern]

Has anyone else noticed that the injury priced players seem to be getting a bigger discount than normal? I thought 0 games meant a 30% discount, but it seems like we've seen some 40 and even 50% discounts. I'm keen to see Libba's price.

I'm in favour. I felt last year that most coaches were taking the same cash cows at the start of the year.
Excuse me for a moment while I use a golf analogy. A golf hole that looks difficult from the tee with lots of bunkers and water is a poor hole because players stop taking risks. Most will play the hole defensively and it becomes boring. A golf hole where the trouble is more subtle is more fun because you will get more variety in how players attack the hole. Some will start taking more risks because they don't notice the trouble, some will take risks depending on the conditions or their form, some will always play defensively. Often 1 well placed bunker is enough to separate the good and bad players.
A few years ago supercoach raised the prices of all the first round draft picks because everyone was taking the best players but I think they raised the prices too much and priced them out of the game. On the surface more cash cows to choose from appears to make the game too easy. There will always be half a dozen obvious picks. But after those first half a dozen there should be genuine debate and even confusion about which of the other cash cows are the best to take. Just as I am Cursed has posted, Andy Otten at $148,400 now becomes a consideration, but not a lock. At $200,000 he was out of the picture.The best coaches will pick the best cash cows even if we have 50 to choose from. Meanwhile the bad coaches will pick the bad cash cows but they will still have more fun because the game is more fun.

Agreed. I can never see myself selecting a high first round pick due to price. I was interested to see the AFL fantasy didnt have Weitering as the highest price Carlton rookie. Maybe they are taking position into account.

 

[Pearcey47]

I think if people are considering O'Meara and Crouch they would have to consider Daniel Wells.

Crouch and O'Meara are both 21 and early in their career. Both have averaged over 87 in the 2 seasons they have played.
Wells is 30 and has played 9 games in his past 2 years.

I dont really see the correlation?

 

[Goodie's Guns]

TOP OF THE POPS

Brett Deledio (Rich) $608,800

Leigh Montagna (StK) $599,000 (Mid DPP)

Dustin Martin (Rich) $569,300 (Mid DPP)

Luke Dahlhaus (WB) $563,600 (Mid DPP)

Harley Bennell (Frem) $548,600 (Mid DPP)

Dayne Zorko (BL) $543,000 (Mid DPP)

Chad Wingard (PtA) $527,800

Jack Gunston (Haw) $521,200

Jarryd Roughead (Haw) $520,200

Shaun Higgins (NM) $514,400

MAKE OR BREAK PICKS

Daniel Menzel (Geel) & Troy Menzel (Adel) $260,600

Matt Wright (Carl) $294,800 (Mid DPP)

Dale Thomas (Carl) $308,700 (Mid DPP)

Craig Bird (Ess) $348,000 (Mid DPP)

Charlie Dixon (PtA) $376,700

ROOKIES TO WATCH

Ben Kennedy (Melb) $187,800

Charlie Curnow (Carl) 171,300

Daniel Rioli (Rich) $157,800

Sam Kerridge (Carl) $137,600 (Mid DPP)

Christian Petracca (Melb) $123,900 (Mid DPP)