Opinion Player X vs Player Y

[_Slip_]

What makes you say 108 Slip? I don't know much about how Carlton are likely to play this year, but perhaps that's it?

I'd say 104 average for Gibbs for now, and expect Libba to average at least that. Libba has cracked 110 in his fourth year and continues to get better every year, and is only 23. Gibbs hasn't got above 107 in eight seasons, with his best year being back in 2009 (with 2014 being close).

Gibbs is probably somewhat similar to Steven last year (who I picked, and was extremely happy with) - very cheap for what he can deliver, but probably a weakish keeper and more of a stepping stone. I think Libba is comfortably ahead of Gibbs this year though, if you can only have one. Better player already, better ceiling and cheaper.

Hey Darkie

I agree Gibbs is a weakish keeper but I still see plenty of upside with Gibbs. The 108 is a point higher than he has ever previously averaged but I believe he can bounce back to his best under Bolton. Last year his disposal average (kicks well down), 1 per centers, rebound 50s were well down and his clangers were up 3.7 game (career 2.2). Hopefully Bolton can bring out Gibbs full potential.

I projecting Libba to go 104 with a slight down turn due to him returning from injury. Libba's output under Beveridge is also an unknown quantity with a different game style to McCartney and a number of the younger Dogs have also lifted their game, which may or may not impact on Libba.

I have Gibbs slightly ahead of Libba but that is just my 'Gut feel'.

 

[jones711]

D3: Marley Williams or Tom Langdon ?

Very similar players in terms of age, games played and 2015 stats. They even play for the same team ! Am leaning slightly towards Langdon based on the fact he put in less sub 70 scores last year than Williams, but the last third of the season from Williams was pretty impressive. They are almost identical in price this year and both averaged 85 last year. Just had a quick look at Rowsus tables where both are profiled. He doesn't seem too keen on either of them !

 

[Darkie]

Hey Darkie

I agree Gibbs is a weakish keeper but I still see plenty of upside with Gibbs. The 108 is a point higher than he has ever previously averaged but I believe he can bounce back to his best under Bolton. Last year his disposal average (kicks well down), 1 per centers, rebound 50s were well down and his clangers were up 3.7 game (career 2.2). Hopefully Bolton can bring out Gibbs full potential.

I projecting Libba to go 104 with a slight down turn due to him returning from injury. Libba's output under Beveridge is also an unknown quantity with a different game style to McCartney and a number of the younger Dogs have also lifted their game, which may or may not impact on Libba.

I have Gibbs slightly ahead of Libba but that is just my 'Gut feel'.

Thanks Slip. It's hard to predict what impact a new coach will have, although I understand that Murphy typically scored a lot better pre-Malthouse, so perhaps Gibbs will score better post-Malthouse!

Its a good point re Beveridge as well - it's essentially a new coach insofar as Libba is concerned. I imagine Libba's role is probably less at risk under a different game style than some other players', but it's a source of uncertainty nonetheless.

 

[Darkie]

The prevailing discussion on Buddy seems to be that he will start fast, burn bright, and then explode or crash, at which time owners will take their bags of cash and upgrade to a tastey fallen premium. Maybe this will happen....and maybe it won't. My concern with Buddy is that not many people seem to be looking at him as a solid season long keeper and are already preparing their exit strategies for when something goes wrong. Now, I don't have a problem with having an exit strategy (that's smart play), it's just that I would prefer a player where there is only a 5% chance that that the plan is needed rather thank the 80% (roughly) which seem to be relevant for Buddy.
Please note, I am quite a conservative player, so this probably explains my approach. If you like things more exciting, then Buddy is probably your man

I basically agree with all of this RB, and I'm actually quite conservative myself in many regards, so your advice is probably very pertinent.

The main reason I'm considering Buddy is that I'm not sure who to bring in now that I'm cutting McVeigh. I have all the premiums I think are strong, low-risk starting picks (there are obviously others I want later), so I either get someone that has more starting-side risk than I like (someone like Boyd/Sloane/Buddy) or I go for someone safer that I think is a bit inferior (maybe Yeo/Wines/Wingard). The latter group has little appeal for me, but perhaps I could handle the risk of the first group, given how solid the rest of my picks tend to be. It's a bit of a portfolio approach.

In fairness to Buddy, there's probably some chance (maybe 30%?) he gets through without being traded (due to unavailability (bad) or becoming overpriced (good)) and perhaps a 5% chance McVeigh would need trading out, so it's probably an incremental 65% of a trade, rather than a full one.

I'm also considering raiding my cash stash now, to get in one of the very top-priced players.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I basically agree with all of this RB, and I'm actually quite conservative myself in many regards, so your advice is probably very pertinent.

The main reason I'm considering Buddy is that I'm not sure who to bring in now that I'm cutting McVeigh. I have all the premiums I think are strong, low-risk starting picks (there are obviously others I want later), so I either get someone that has more starting-side risk than I like (someone like Boyd/Sloane/Buddy) or I go for someone safer that I think is a bit inferior (maybe Yeo/Wines/Wingard). The latter group has little appeal for me, but perhaps I could handle the risk of the first group, given how solid the rest of my picks tend to be. It's a bit of a portfolio approach.

In fairness to Buddy, there's probably some chance (maybe 30%?) he gets through without being traded (due to unavailability (bad) or becoming overpriced (good)) and perhaps a 5% chance McVeigh would need trading out, so it's probably an incremental 65% of a trade, rather than a full one.

I'm also considering raiding my cash stash now, to get in one of the very top-priced players.

It sounds like you have thought this through and have a few pretty solid options you could take. Given you have minimized risks in other areas, Buddy could be the right X-factor for you to take. You still have 47 days to go until the first Lockout, so plenty of time to consider the various options until then

 

[_Slip_]

Fyfe & Libba vs JPK & Sloane?

😮

 

[Rowsus]

The prevailing discussion on Buddy seems to be that he will start fast, burn bright, and then explode or crash, at which time owners will take their bags of cash and upgrade to a tastey fallen premium. Maybe this will happen....and maybe it won't. My concern with Buddy is that not many people seem to be looking at him as a solid season long keeper and are already preparing their exit strategies for when something goes wrong. Now, I don't have a problem with having an exit strategy (that's smart play), it's just that I would prefer a player where there is only a 5% chance that that the plan is needed rather thank the 80% (roughly) which seem to be relevant for Buddy.
Please note, I am quite a conservative player, so this probably explains my approach. If you like things more exciting, then Buddy is probably your man

As Darkie said, I agree with all this. The main part that makes this so tantalising, is the prospect that you might get 8 games from Buddy at 130, and see his Price sitting up at about $620k. If you trade him out, you not only have the $150k, which matches about the 8th or 10th best Cash Cow in your side for the season, you also have nearly 300 points on the Coaches that started a 95/game player at F4. Yes, you are down a trade on those Coaches, but there's not a coach here that wouldn't swap a trade for 300 points AND $150k.
Having said that, that scenario is very unlikely, but something half way between that, and breaking even on Buddy is still a good result. I think people are being smart, not looking at Buddy as a season long prospect. Remember my catch cry "Have reasonable expectations". I don't think it is reasonable to expect to get 20+ games from Buddy. Hope, yes, expect, no.
I have him, and I am prepared to butcher him early if he does something like the above scenario. Outside of that, I will hang onto him until the warning bells are ringing. There's not many players you can get for $470k that you'd give a chance to be averaging 115+ at some stage early or Mid season, or a chance to be 105+ for the season. I think when you get a chance with one, especially one that can be explosive as Buddy, you just have to roll the dice, especially with a history behind them, and being available outside of the Midfield. But attaching a trade to his spot would seem to be the most sensible approach too. It doesn't mean that you will end up using it though!

 

[Ricky Bobby]

^^ wise words Rowsus. Ther may be something here for me to think about

 

[Junior Wölf]

Not sure if done yet. Am interested to see what people's thoughts are.

Yeo vs Rich at D3

 

[Courtesans]

Not sure if done yet. Am interested to see what people's thoughts are.

Yeo vs Rich at D3

Yeo. Remember, you are picking one or the other as a keeper.

 

[Tamuhawk]

KK & JPK Vs Boyd & Tmitch

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

KK & JPK Vs Boyd & Tmitch

My preference would be KK & JPK

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Not sure if done yet. Am interested to see what people's thoughts are.

Yeo vs Rich at D3

Yeo

KK & JPK Vs Boyd & Tmitch

KK & JPK

 

[Manikato1]

The main part that makes this so tantalising, is the prospect that you might get 8 games from Buddy at 130,

Anyone know site that compares players performances against teams? Can only find one with DT scores. Bit of a bugger. In respect of Buddy I looked at the top six teams he has performed against over his career. Buddy plays against 4 of the top 6 in the first 8 rounds and the 7th ranked team rd 8. If that is any kind of guide he could go big. I don't think I will take him but it is good to chuck stuff in the pot and see what comes out!

 

[Goodie's Guns]

KK & JPK Vs Boyd & Tmitch

KK and JPK for me also mate

 

[stephen]

Anyone know site that compares players performances against teams? Can only find one with DT scores. Bit of a bugger. In respect of Buddy I looked at the top six teams he has performed against over his career. Buddy plays against 4 of the top 6 in the first 8 rounds and the 7th ranked team rd 8. If that is any kind of guide he could go big. I don't think I will take him but it is good to chuck stuff in the pot and see what comes out!

Fanfooty.

Here's Buddy:

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/opponentsc.php?firstname=Lance&surname=Franklin

 

[jo_el]

Beams or tmitchell?

 

[MrMurdoch]

Beams or tmitchell?

Beams should be a safe 110-115+ average, but misses games every year, so factor that into your choice. Mitchell could be anything, wouldnt put it past him going 120+ but could just as easily only go 100. I think this decision depends on how many other risky picks youve got in your midfield/team, and whether you could afford to put another one in.

 

[MrMurdoch]

Not sure if done yet. Am interested to see what people's thoughts are.

Yeo vs Rich at D3

Cant see either being a top 10 defender but the one with more potential is probably Yeo.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Price not an issue...

Zach Merrett vs. Dayne Zorko vs. Shane Edwards ???