Hey guys, thought I'd do a bit of a team analysis on the team that I keep coming back to as I have nothing better to do with my day. Apologies in advance for the length of it as it will be quite detailed. Each player I have selected in my team will be critiqued as to why I have chosen them. I have $5,300 salary leftover, let me know what you think, enjoy the read, and hope I can help some people out with the information. Cheers!
DEFENCE: Although there are so many solid premium options in defence this year, I will wait for them to hopefully drop in price as many have question marks over them, especially regarding the age of Shaw, Simpson, Montagna, etc. In addition to this, the defence is where I see the greatest value in 2017 and in my opinion it is the position with the best rookies.
Taylor Adams: 23 years old and has huge scoring potential (averaged 115.8 from last 7 full games of 2015 and had a low score of 88 from full games up until R20 in 2016). The issue with Adams is his durability, however if he can stay fit, he is an absolute lock as a defender as I see him averaging 105 and being top 3.
Hamish Hartlett: 26 years old and entering SC prime age, he has always had the talent, but just needs to add better consistency to his game. Il be watching his pre season closely regarding his position, but if he plays in the midfield in NAB challenge he is huge value for his price. Prior to his poor 2016 season, without including subbed games he has averaged 92, 91, 91, 102, 101 in the previous 5 seasons, therefore if he can get back to his best, he is 20ppg underpriced. Averaged 114 from his last 8 games of 2015 so has the proven ability to score very highly and as a defender that is very valuable scoring.
Andrew McGrath: The #1 draft pick has huge potential and should slot straight onto the HBF for Essendon. His speed and run from defence along with his elite skills will be good for his SC scoring as proved by his average of 145pts in the TAC Cup. Despite his hefty price tag, I believe he can average around 70-75.
Matt Scharenberg: Former #6 draft pick who has been extremely unlucky with injuries, however if he can get on the park he is a steal at his $164k starting price. Collingwood need his elite foot skills coming out of the defensive half and his back into full training which is a positive. If he gets named R1 he is locked in.
Curtly Hampton: Out for the majority of 2016 with a foot injury, he played the last couple of months in the SANFL which makes him cheap as chips for 2017. Has potential and has been training with the midfield group at Adelaide. In 2014 at GWS he averaged 79.1 from his 10 full games, including a decent average of 88.9 in his first 7 games (78, 110, 89, 109, 66, 92, 78). At $160k his a lock if named R1.
Nic Newman: 23 year old has a mature body and has now had 2 seasons to develop in the NEAFL. With McVeigh getting older, Sydney fan forums have Newman starting as the HBF in their best 22 for 2017. Averaged 28 disposals per game in the NEAFL but most importantly 21 of them were kicks so his 3:1 kick-to-handball ratio will promote better SC scoring. Received a two-year contract extension so they consider him as an important player and his finish to the NEAFL season was huge winning BOG honours in the grand final. In the final 14 games of the NEAFL season his lowest disposal tally was 23, indicating his consistency is quite good.
Luke Ryan: Mature aged half back flanker from the VFL who was the winner of the VFL Rising Star award in 2016. Fremantle have snapped him up which is good for SC as he will most likely get games as they look towards youth. He won the most intercept possessions of any player in the VFL which is huge for SC, and is evident by his average of 105pts. Looks the likely type to get early games and at his price is a lock.
Ed Vickers-Willis: Showed some good signs in the VFL in the back half of the season after coming back from a shoulder injury. Most NM fan forums have him and/or Hibberd on the bench of extended 25 man squads so they are getting close. My D8 will be whoever gets named in R1.
MIDFIELD: With the money I saved by going cheap in defence, I have been able to load up in the midfield as this is where I see less cheap rookie options unlike other years, and with higher draft picks getting DPP it has allowed greater flexibility as money making midfield options can be selected as defenders or forwards instead. Obviously some injury risks here but willing to take the risk as my M1-M6 premiums all have a history and ability to score 120+ and present value.
Patrick Dangerfield: Absolute lock despite his price tag as he is a massive scorer, a great captain option, and is extremely durable. Scored above 120+ on 17 occasions in 2016 (8 games above 140).
Scott Pendlebury: My favourite player in the game and with Collingwood likely to improve in 2017, he will be the main driving force. Although he has been earmarked for more forward time, I see him playing majority of his time in the midfield with stints in the forward line which may actually assist his scores. His durable, extremely consistent, and with previous season averages of 129, 125, 127, 124, 116, 119 he is very hard to overlook.
Gary Ablett: Risky as he is getting older and getting injured more often, however I want one last season to select and farewell the mighty GAJ from my SC team that he has carried for many many years. I think he still has the scoring ability to average 120 and with the departures of Prestia and JOM he will still be needed in the midfield. Like Pendles, I think GAJ will be used forward more often but he has the potential to kick 3 goals a game as a dangerous small forward, and if he collects 25-30 touches a game in addition to this, his scores will definitely reflect well.
Tom Rockliff: Despite again being an injury risk, looking back at his past seasons, his games tally of 19, 20, 22, 21, 18, 16, 17 was not as bad as expected. If he can overcome his injuries, he is one of the best SC scorers in the game and has a huge ceiling. Brisbane forums are saying his looking the fittest they have ever seen him, and with the off-season problems he will be looking to recapture his best footy after he admitted losing his love for the game in 2016. Averaged 125.75 from the last 12 games of 2016 with 50% of those games 130+. Scoring is evident, just needs to stay fit and I'm taking the risk in hope that he does.
Nat Fyfe: Still only 25 years old and despite having most of the year off with injury, his back at training and looking extremely fit. When fit he is an absolute SC scoring machine with season averages of 122 and 124 (135 from his first 12 games of 2015 before the Mitchell knee) prior to last year. Extremely underpriced at an average of 106, heres hoping he gets back to his best and stays injury free in 2017.
Dayne Beams: Has been quite unlucky with injuries at Brisbane and when he gets on the park he delivers. In his past 3 seasons where he has played 15 games or more, his unsubbed averages are 123 in 2012, 118 in 2014, and 121 in 2015 from R3-15 before injury struck. Theres no doubt his an injury risk, but when his priced at an average of 80 and averages around 120 when he plays, he is considerably underpriced and huge value if fit in round 1.
David Swallow: At $280k and priced at an average of 52, he is extremely underpriced and will be a great stepping stone to a premium. With Prestia and JOM gone his reliance through the midfield will be increased, and his in full pre season training and looking fit. Averaged 103 in 2014 so has the scoring ability, just needs to get on the park. I see him averaging 90-95 which makes him 40ppg underpriced, lock if ready for R1.
David Myers: Has to be a lock if named for R1 and looks fit. Priced as a rookie at $133k, this makes him priced at a ridiculous average of 25. He has scoring ability as evident by his 2014 season where he averaged 86 (95 from R16-22). I expect around 75-80 from Myers if he plays which makes him 50ppg underpriced. Lock.
Sam Powell-Pepper: A contested beast with a ready made AFL body, SPP looks ready to step into the Port Adelaide midfield in R1. An elite runner, he averaged 22 disposals, 3 tackles and 1.5 goals per game in the U18 competition, and in addition to this he averaged 120SC points for the WAFL colts. His down fall is that he gives away free kicks and apparently has a shocking kicking efficiency, therefore he may not be all that SC friendly when he misses targets at AFL level, but we will wait and see. Regardless if he is named R1 he should be picked, but I am going in with him at M9 on a side of caution as I can see him averaging 60s early on.
Jake Barrett: Has been given a chance at Brisbane which should be good for him. At GWS he was starved of opportunities, however he should get games at Brisbane, only problem is they have so many players capable of playing midfield roles. Loves contested ball which is good for SC scoring and is a ball magnet averaging 29.3 disposals a game in the NEAFL. If he gets upgraded from the rookie list and gets early games he should be a good cash cow.
Jack Graham: Surprisingly slipped a long way in the draft to pick 53 which makes him basement rookie priced. He has the body to make an early impact and won the Larke Medal as the best player in the U18 National Championships with an average of 25 disposals and 5 clearances a game. Loves contested ball which again is good for SC scoring and if given the early opportunity will also be a good cash cow.
RUCKS: Playing it safe in the rucks this year as I don't trust mid-pricers, and if they fail on you, you end up stuck with a $300k player with no one else decent to trade in. Because of that I have gone all out and picked the best of the best. Grundy I rate very highly but due to his lowish ceiling I think his still a year or two off becoming a super premium choice. Martin is tempting as the only real ruck at Brisbane, however I feel too scared to remove my current premiums to get him in, and wouldn't know where to spend the additional $100k anyway. Sandilands is my only other option but at 34 years old his a massive injury risk, and will be extremely slow, therefore at best I can see him averaging 100 which would make money, but if he breaks down early your in trouble and I have too many other risks as it is to include him as well.
Max Gawn: Had a massive 2016 with a huge average of 125 between R3-21 (which mind you includes a crappy 49 and 63), and with 5 scores above 160+ he also becomes a good captain option. Can't see him going any lower than 110 and his only 24 years old which is young for a ruck man, therefore he has the potential to improve and average 120+ so his locked.
Todd Goldstein: Was unable to back up his massive 2015 average of 128.8, however this means he is a lot more affordable in 2017. Played injured majority of the year which I think made his scores below standard for him, however he still averaged 118 from his initial 10 games of the season (again including a crappy 49) which I think is more of what we can expect in 2017. Only issue is the emergence of Daw and the departure of Harvey, Dal Santo, Wells, etc. who used to crumb his taps, however I think he is a professional that will adapt to this change and return to his best if fit. I'm expecting 115+ and he will remain a top 2 ruck.
Luke Strnadica: Not a lot to say about this young bloke, won't play and will be used as a captain loophole due to Fremantle having a lot of later games. Also provides a DPP link in the rare scenario if I wanted to bring in a FWD-RUC DPP premium such as Ryder at some point in the season if he is playing to a premium standard.
FORWARDS: A bit tricky to select premium forwards this season apart from the Bulldogs boys so have opted for break out and value options at F3-F4. Rookie options aren't very prevalent so have gone a tad more expensive at F5.
Luke Dahlhaus: Averaged 108.3 from the first 10 games of the seasons before injury struck. If he stays fit he is almost a lock as a top 6 forward, obviously you pay the price for him but for someone who should average 100+ and be a top 6 FWD he is a pretty safe pick.
Jack Macrae: Only 22 years old and stagnated after his impressive 2nd season where he averaged 100, 100 and 94 this year but with his age he still has improvement to be made in my opinion. Finished the year with a finals average of 107. Il be starting him as I think 100 will be a minimum for him with a potential to push 105 with natural progression.
Isaac Heeney: Bit of a risk as at the price he is he really needs to become a premium averaging 95+ but I think Heeney is more than capable of doing that. Averaged 97.6 from the last 8 games of the season when he moved into the midfield more and with Tom Mitchell gone he looks like the one to take more midfield minutes. After some research into Heeney, I found that from his 11 games in his career (I know, relatively small sample size but still interesting) where he has had 18+ disposals he averages 110.7 and has a low score of 84 in the GF. With more midfield time I think he can be a breakout in his third season.
Harley Bennell: If he overcomes his calf injury and is ready for R1 I think he presents huge value as his scoring ability is to a premium standard. In his previous 4 seasons he has averaged 97, 96, 96 and 102 so he can score, and the fact he is priced at 72 he is quite underpriced for what he is capable of.
Hugh McCluggage: The #3 draft pick has loads of talent and was regarded as the #1 pick by majority of club recruiters. Averaged 28 disposals and 2 goals per game in the TAC Cup and should get early games at Brisbane on a HFF rotating through the midfield. Think he could score 70ish.
Jarrod Pickett: Former #4 draft pick is now bargain priced after not playing the past couple of seasons and should finally get a run at it at Carlton in 2017. I'm not expecting massive scores from him as he is a small forward, however he should have good J/S and become a slow cash cow, at least he should play though.
Aaron Black: Moved to Geelong for a fresh start which may be good for his SC output. He has the potential to be a decent SC scorer and is dirt cheap. Averaged 77 from 18 games in 2013 (including 95 from the first 6 games) so if he can match that output that would be huge for his price. Great value and locked in if named.
Brett Eddy: Mature aged recruit that is a KPF so not expecting big scores but still managed to average 91SC points in the SANFL. He should play as Port Adelaide wouldn't recruit a 27 year old without the intention of playing him.