Analysis Cash Cows On The Bubble

[Impromptu]

Round 3 of SuperCoach in any given year is the round where we try to catch that 'Missed Rookies', ie 'Cash Cow', get rid of the 'Fallen Speculative Mid-Pricer' and in some cases give our 'Fallen Premiums' a massive flick to outside the solar system. The question is with only 2 trades what do we do?

Do we focus on the Missed Rookies or the Fallen players? Well, I think answer really depends on your current SuperCoach team and how many missed rookies and who are Fallen players in your team?

In this article we focus on the 'Missed Cash Cows', but only the main ones and only the ones who are rookie priced and listed below.

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 770, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Position
[/TD]
[TD]Name
[/TD]
[TD]Cost ($)
[/TD]
[TD]Cost (PPG)
[/TD]
[TD]Average
[/TD]
[TD]R1
[/TD]
[TD]R2
[/TD]
[TD]BE
[/TD]
[TD]SC Gold
[/TD]
[TD]Increase
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MID/DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Brett Goodes
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$128,200
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]113
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]98
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-136
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]106
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$108,000
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Jasper Pittard
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$128,000
[/TD]
[TD]24
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]93
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]91
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-109
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$68,300
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Lewis Stevenson
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]80
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]66
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]93
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-91
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]88
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$76,400
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Campbell Heath
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]70
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-87
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$73,700
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Luke Brown
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$135,500
[/TD]
[TD]25
[/TD]
[TD]71
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]97
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-62
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]43
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$46,700
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MID
[/TD]
[TD]Jaeger O'Meara
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]120
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-124
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]96
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$98,200
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MID
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Viney
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$109,500
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]83
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]117
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-102
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]83
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$82,500
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MID
[/TD]
[TD]Oliver Wines
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$169,500
[/TD]
[TD]32
[/TD]
[TD]88
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]125
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]51
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-77
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]88
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$73,600
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MID
[/TD]
[TD]Matt Jones
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$109,500
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]57
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$47,200
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FWD/MID
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Dwyer
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$96,200
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]80
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]110
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-103
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]80
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$81,500
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FWD/MID
[/TD]
[TD]Jake Neade
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]57
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]86
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-75
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$65,700
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Position
[/TD]
[TD]Name
[/TD]
[TD]Cost ($)
[/TD]
[TD]Cost (PPG)
[/TD]
[TD]Average
[/TD]
[TD]R1
[/TD]
[TD]R2
[/TD]
[TD]BE
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MID
[/TD]
[TD]Brad Crouch
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]85
[/TD]
[TD]DNP
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]85
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-102
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Hutchins
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$115,900
[/TD]
[TD]22
[/TD]
[TD]78
[/TD]
[TD]DNP
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-88
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEF
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Frost
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$96,200
[/TD]
[TD]18
[/TD]
[TD]72
[/TD]
[TD]DNP
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]72
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-88
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Cash Cows that are missed is quite important this round as this is when the rookies increase in price and are often known as Rookies 'On The Bubble'. Just note and this is obvious to some, but the first price rise is very crucial as the base or current price is at the lowest point and the breakeven is always based on the current price; therefore lower the current price of a player the better.

The obvious ones which you MUST trade in if you don't have them are: Brett Goodes, Jaeger O'Meara, Jack Viney and possibly Jasper Pittard. While Viney and his Melbourne team had a shocker over weekend, I think he should still be a must before the price rise. Now I assume you have all these players.

Depending on how many non-rookies in your Defence, you may need to trade in either Stevenson, Heath or L.Brown. I suggest you will need at least 1 and probably 2 out of these players. Some people may have Terlich in their team even though he didn't play the first round. If you loaded up with premiums/mid-prices in the Defence say Goddard, Gibbs and 2 of Heppell/Harlett/Shaw/Waters/Watts/Dixon, presumably with Goodes and Pittard, then you have 2 spots available on the bench.

Even though some people have said the Port SuperCoach defence has been solid due to its easy draw, I personally think you need them as even if they start scoring 2 50s, which isn't idea1, it is still a decen price rise in the worst case scenario. On the other hand, if you don't trade them in, you risk being behind when it comes to Upgrade time. This is possibly one of the reason why I traded Chris Newman out after one game as I wasn't confident in Newman's scoring and felt I was missing a Port rookie.

For me, Wines is a No, mainly due starting price. If you decide to trade Wines in then possibly should have been last round, before his recent game. Looks like a Gun player, but you won't make much money compared to others, even though you may get the advantage of a higher score.

I think most people will have Neade in their team and I think he is a solid selection if you don't have him.

Dwyer I think is a tricky one as some people are concened about his job security. After Dwyer's last game, without any detail knowledge of the Collingwood team, I'd say that Dwyer is guaranteed the next 2 games, unless he has a shocker. I believe Dwyer is a solid $120K in 2 rounds with the remainder unknown. I have Dwyer but personally if I didn't have Dwyer I would trade him in.

If you only have one spot left in the midfield then I suggest you dont trade Matt Jones in and wait a week to bring Crouch in. If you are feeling adventurous, then you can trade Crouch in this week.

Frost is an interesting one and I would have not mentioned it, but for the fact that Maxwell is expected to be out for 6-8 weeks. Either way, we get another week to look at him.

The above 'Rookies Analysis' is not in detail and therefore, feel free to add your views. It was more to give a general feel of the Rookies on the Bubble.

Now in deciding on whether to trade in a rookie or not really depends on your circumstances.

Premiums

If you have Watts (sorry Melbourne supporters) and Newman (sorry everyone), you may want to trade them out so you avoid the price drop (and yes it may matter) and you catch a missed cash cow. It is your call to decide whether these Premiums are permanently fallen or just temporarily and if you do trade out Premiums then you have to accept the consequences in the event they start running a muck.

Horrible Rookies

This is an annoying feeling, where you have rookies who are not doing well or doesn't look like stringing 4 games and there has been no price rise and you may need to trade them out. This may include Rampe and Kommer. I think if you don't have enough room in a given position, then it could be viable to trade them out for one of the rookies above.

Every Team Is Different

Now it is unlikely I'll be trading any of the rookies as I feel I have enough, namely:

D - Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson (Heath, Terlich)
M - O'Meara, Viney, M. Jones, Speight (Rampe, Kommer)
F - Dwyer, Neade

Speight is Floating Donut and Rampe/Kommer I'll wait for teams out. I'll probably wait for Crouch, but if I do jump on this week then I'll probably trade in L.Brown for Rampe/Kommer using DPP substitute.

My Advice is Cash Cows are very important and you should focus on them.

Note that Crouch and Leuenberger have only 1 game, so you could decide to trade in the above Cash Cows and wait for Crouch and Leuenberger. Having said that, I will probably trade in Leuenberger as the only rookies I'm interested in the above table is Crouch and L.Brown. Still deciding.

Good Luck

 

[Courtesans]

It seems every man and his dog has the essentail rookies, don't recall that happening for a few years in so far as the field was a little wider.

As regards premiums, 'it is your call to decide whether these Premiums are permanently fallen', is too true Jay.

 

[Philzsay]

If you have Watts (sorry Melbourne supporters) and Newman (sorry everyone), you may want to trade them out so you avoid the price drop (and yes it may matter) and you catch a missed cash cow. It is your call to decide whether these Premiums are permanently fallen or just temporarily and if you do trade out Premiums then you have to accept the consequences in the event they start running a muck.

It's almost as if this paragragh was written specifically for me. I have both, thought both offered value before the season started and wanted to give my team a bit of a POD feel in having a slightly stronger backline than most. Turned out to be the wrong call, hence a negative POD. (So far!)

It will be interesting to see who is the most 'traded in' rookie this week. Maybe Dwyer simply due to many coaches already having many of the others?

 

[Prochard]

Well I originally chose watts over birchall cause watts provides a dpp link with my floating donut Brent staker(fwd)... Now watts obviously was a bad choice , and I'm just wondering who I should trade watts out for?
1.birchall
2. Luke brown/Heath
3. Switch staker to back and get Kennedy (forward ) in

 

[Polarbear]

Great article Inpromptu. I just need a little help.
Unfortunately I still have Newman with my backline as follows:

Goddard,Gibbs,Duffield,NEWMAN, Goodes, Pittard (Stevenson, Terlich)

I have enough cash to go Newman to Hanley or Heppell although leaning towards Hanley.
But do I do that or bring in a another cash cow such as Heath or Brown?

Any help or suggestions would be appreciated.

Currently ranked 683

Cheers

 

[PC]

Thanks for this article Jay - good info for someone that doesn't really understand the rookie bubble and what happens down the track.

Is it a valid move to trade out a rookie like Jones to one like Crouch next week? You pick up the Jones price rise, spread the rookie top out times and probably get a better rookie option. Or is this a waste of a trade?

 

[Deeman1]

Another great read Impromptu well done.

My rookies are as follows:

Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson, Brown, Terlich

Wines, O'Meara, Viney, Mitchell K, Jones

Currie, Daw

Maccaffer, Rowe

I also have Karnezis at F6 with Varcoe at F5.

As you can see i do not have either Dwyer or Neade. Going to make two trades this week, one to fix the Watts problem and the other I have several options:

1. Karnezis -> Dwyer/Neade (cash + 146k min)
2. Mitchell -> Dwyer/Neade (no change in cash)
3. Currie -> Dwyer/Neade (via Rowe) (no change in cash)

My reading of above is that if you were to trade in one of Dwyer/Neade that you would personally trade in Neade. Its a trivky one as Dwyer problably has the better scoring power but worse JS and Neade probably has the poorer scoring power and better JS.

What do you and others think.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Is it a valid move to trade out a rookie like Jones to one like Crouch next week? You pick up the Jones price rise, spread the rookie top out times and probably get a better rookie option. Or is this a waste of a trade?

I don't think that is a waste of a trade at all, especially if you are getting rid of a Mitchell or Jones.
Getting a rookie like Crouch who can obviously play and did well in a fairly strong Crows side is much better than Jones who is playing of a fledging club and a guy that is sub prone. Take the little bit of cash they can make you and don't miss out on a guy like Crouch who judging by his debut could make quite a lot of coin.

 

[Bobbie]

Have most of the rookies except for Crouch, Brown and Dwyer. Existing rookies that could be corrected are:

Def: Terlich - should I trade for Brown?
Mid:Kommer and Jones (and perhaps Stevens) - one will go for Crouch next week
Fwd: Macaffer and Karnezsis (ok, he's a mid pricer but is on the chopping block) - one will go for Dwyer

Trying to use my trades wisely, and also have the Roughead issue. Wondering if I should grab Brown and Dwyer this week, and next week grab Crouch and address the Roughy issue by possibly trading to Leuy if he produces the goods again.

Any advice re where I should be using my trades to bring in the bubbling rookies would be much appreciated.

 

[johno686]

I don't think that is a waste of a trade at all, especially if you are getting rid of a Mitchell or Jones.
Getting a rookie like Crouch who can obviously play and did well in a fairly strong Crows side is much better than Jones who is playing of a fledging club and a guy that is sub prone. Take the little bit of cash they can make you and don't miss out on a guy like Crouch who judging by his debut could make quite a lot of coin.

Spot on what im doing next week Jones to Crouch.

 

[PC]

Thanks GG and Johno - glad my ponderings are not completely off the mark

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Spot on what im doing next week Jones to Crouch.

Yeah I will be trading Mitchell to Crouch, either this week if Mitchell is agin sub or next week if he starts.

 

[blue dreamer]

This article has made me change this weeks trades (thanks Jay).

I was going Byrnes - Crozier and Mitchell - Crouch.

Can't see Byrnes as a small forward at Melbourne increasing either his points or cash value and had Crozier last year (got stuck with him when he got sick) will score better than byrnes and generate (some) cash as a stepping stone, still doing this trade (atm).

Byrnes was my last man picked in R1 when the teams were announced and was never comfortable with the selection so he is now first shown the door.

Have changed Mitchell - Crouch to Mitchell - Viney.

Hadn't originally looked at Viney (for this trade) as I have decided on the no Melbourne players strategy (another reason to trade away Byrnes)however his projected $ rise is too good to pass up and will still probably go Rampe to Crouch next week.

Thanks Jay I'm sure the extra cash by having both Viney & Crouch will help in upgrading sooner rather than later.

 

[Deeman1]

Yeah I will be trading Mitchell to Crouch, either this week if Mitchell is agin sub or next week if he starts.

Agree, I think that the Mitchell/Jones -> Crouch will be a pretty popular trade next week.

 

[The Phoenix]

I reckon Elliot Kavanagh will get a run this week to start getting some gametime and depth in the Essendon squad.....just in case the injury curse strikes again.
I have Kommer who does seem to have some potential so don't think I'll trade him out but he may become part of the rotating newbie group at Essendon.
Slower to rise in price possibly but don't necessarily need all rookies to peak the same week, and a trade is a trade. We'll see!

 

[Petejeds]

Value your opinion Impromt! Im ranked 625 at the moment and looking solid however i need to make my first two trades. The rookies i have are: Pittard, Stevenson, Goodes, Terlich, omeara, Viney, Wines, Stevens, Crouch Dwyer, Mcaff.

I have VARCOE and am thinking of going with JJ KENNEDY before his price rise over a downgrade like Neade as I think Josh will be a good stepping stone in future weeks especially with WC draw. I have the DUFF MAN but am tempted to hold another couple weeks. My sneaky play im thinking of may seem a little crazy but i want to bring in Luke Parker 379k for Mundy which is 100k more and likely price decrease. With Parkers price rise again could be a solid future stepping stone. Should i go another mid rookie go with my plan?

Your thoughts would be much appreciated

 

[Impromptu]

This article has made me change this weeks trades (thanks Jay).

I was going Byrnes - Crozier and Mitchell - Crouch.

Your decision been made easier with Crozier dropped!

 

[IDIG]

I've decided to stand by Ryder and bring in Dwyer this week but I wonder how i'll get Crouch in next week?

B - Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson, Brown (Heath, Terlich)
M - O'Meara, Viney (Kommer, Richo)
R - Rowe, Daw
F - Dwyer (Neade, Macaffer)

I don't really want to get rid of Richo because i'm in a particular vulnerable position with 6 rookie backs as well as no Ablett, Pendles, Swan so it's very important for me to keep my loopholes. Do i just miss out?

 

[Deeman1]

I've decided to stand by Ryder and bring in Dwyer this week but I wonder how i'll get Crouch in next week?

B - Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson, Brown (Heath, Terlich)
M - O'Meara, Viney (Kommer, Richo)
R - Rowe, Daw
F - Dwyer (Neade, Macaffer)





I don't really want to get rid of Richo because i'm in a particular vulnerable position with 6 rookie backs as well as no Ablett, Pendles, Swan so it's very important for me to keep my loopholes. Do i just miss out?

Not sure that you have to many options. Given that you wish to keep your F/D, your only real
options are Viney, O'Meara or Kommer.

If you were desperate to get Crouch in Kommer would probably have to be the one to go. Depends how much you see Crouch as a must have.

 

[Nk29]

I've decided to stand by Ryder and bring in Dwyer this week but I wonder how i'll get Crouch in next week?

B - Goodes, Pittard, Stevenson, Brown (Heath, Terlich)
M - O'Meara, Viney (Kommer, Richo)
R - Rowe, Daw
F - Dwyer (Neade, Macaffer)

I don't really want to get rid of Richo because i'm in a particular vulnerable position with 6 rookie backs as well as no Ablett, Pendles, Swan so it's very important for me to keep my loopholes. Do i just miss out?

Get rid of Kommer next week. He isn't going to score that well I feel.