Champion Data SuperCoach formguide: Trade and rookie tips for Round 11
Champion Data, Herald Sun
May 31, 2018 2:30pm
Subscriber only
IF YOU didn’t trade out Tim Kelly last round, then this week you have no other choice but to cash in and turn him into a bona fide premium.
Almost 14,700 SuperCoaches jumped ship last round and in hindsight it was the right call as Kelly attended a season-low five centre bounces and scored just 57 points — slightly up on his 48 points the previous round.
INS AND OUTS: SEE ALL THE ROUND 11 TEAMS
FIX MY TEAM: EXPERT SUPERCOACH ANSWERS
Kelly has a break-even score of 136 points this round and once again the smart choice would to turn him into Patrick Dangerfield after he racked up 133 points against Carlton. Gold Coast concede the most points to midfielders and Dangerfield is close to a must-have.
If you’re looking for a point of difference, then how can you pass up Andrew Gaff? He’s in career-best form and has recorded disposal tallies of 33, 36, 36, 36 and 30 from his past five games against this week’s opponent St Kilda. All roads lead to another 30-plus disposal game on Saturday night. Adding the Gaff’s appeal is that the Saints leak the third-most points to midfielders this season.
Scott Pendlebury is also an option this round. It’s hard to remember the last time he was priced under $500k. He is averaging 106 points in full games which is almost identical to Dustin Martin and Joel Selwood. Pendlebury has three 100-plus point scores against Fremantle from his past four games against them.
It’s been a great ride, Tim Kelly.Andrew Gaff has a three-round average of 117.
ROOKIE WATCH
It’s time to pull the trigger and trade in defence, with both Jeremy Finlayson and Sam Murray prime candidates to get the chop.
The Giants named five inclusions for Sunday’s game against Adelaide including two first-gamers, with no sign of Finlayson. Murray has been named on Collingwood’s extended bench against Fremantle but is unlikely to make the final team based on post-match comments from Nathan Buckley last week suggesting that he may have an extended spell in the VFL.
Bailey Rice should be the top defensive target after he played his second match on the weekend. He has done everything right so far, ranking third at the Saints for intercept possessions (14) since Round 9.
Teammate Logan Austin is also an option after he debuted with 23 disposals and 106 points. With Nathan Brown, Dylan Roberton, Sam Gilbert and the suspended Jack Carlisle all missing, jobs security isn’t an issue for either player.
Jordan Ridley is an alternative to the Saints duo, but a return from injury by Michael Hurley could oust him from the Bombers backline. An injury to Patrick Ambrose though could see Ridley remain in the side, but I’d look to the Saints duo ahead of the young Bomber regardless.
Bailey Rice and Tim Smith SuperCoach are this week’s top rookie picks.
The No. 1 trade-in target this round has to be Melbourne’s Tim Smith with his low break-even score (-116) ensuring he booms in price after his next game. He has looked right at home in the Dees’ forward line, scoring 91 and 101 points from two games.
Zac Giles-Langdon has to go this week even though he has a reachable break-even score of 34 points. Jake Waterman (85 BE) and Billy Gowers (71 BE) are also ready to be culled in attack.
SuperCoaches with Charlie Spargo, Nick Holman and Ed Phillips in the midfield face a major selection headache as to which player to field on the ground. If you also own Dom Barry, the closeness of Melbourne and Port Adelaide start times makes it impossible to loophole Spargo. So essentially, you have to make a call and stick with it. Good luck!
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sydney Swans vs Carlton
Lance Franklin kicked 10 goals and had 183 points when these sides last met in Round 23 last season at the SCG. Kade Simpson finished with 29 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 115 points.
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
Luke Dahlhaus suffered his fifth consecutive price drop last round after scoring 84 points against Collingwood. Jake Lever’s price spike by $26,200 after scoring 99 points against former side Adelaide Crows.
Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide
Jarryd Roughead finished with 18 disposals, two goals and 89 points when he last played Port Adelaide in Round 11 last season. Travis Boak had 23 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 101 points for the Power.
Gold Coast vs Geelong
Aaron Hall averaged 27 disposals, four tackles, seven score involvements and 101 points at Metricon Stadium last season. Joel Selwood has averaged 28 disposals and 113 points from his four games at the venue.
Essendon vs Richmond
Zach Merrett has scored 100-plus points in two of four games at the MCG this season including 118 against Geelong in Round 9. Alex Rance’s only three-figure score at the MCG came against Hawthorn in Round 3.
West Coast vs St Kilda
Andrew Gaff has had 30-plus disposals in each of his past five games against St Kilda, averaging 34 disposals and 99 points. Jack Steven has averaged 27 disposals and 101 points in these games.
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions
Todd Goldstein celebrated his 200th AFL match in style last round against Fremantle, kicking a late goal to score 102 points. Mitch Robinson had a blinder against Sydney, finishing with a career-high 26 contested possessions and 172 points.
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Brodie Grundy is averaging 125 points against bottom-10 sides this season, ranked No. 1 at the Magpies. Nat Fyfe is averaging 130 points against top-eight opposition, ranked No. 1 at the Dockers.
Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants
With scores of 47 and a season-low 42 points from his past two games, Sam Jacobs’ price has plummeted by $67,500. Jeremy Cameron’s 61 points against Essendon last week was his second-lowest score of the year, falling by $19,700.
Champion Data, Herald Sun
May 31, 2018 2:30pm
Subscriber only
IF YOU didn’t trade out Tim Kelly last round, then this week you have no other choice but to cash in and turn him into a bona fide premium.
Almost 14,700 SuperCoaches jumped ship last round and in hindsight it was the right call as Kelly attended a season-low five centre bounces and scored just 57 points — slightly up on his 48 points the previous round.
INS AND OUTS: SEE ALL THE ROUND 11 TEAMS
FIX MY TEAM: EXPERT SUPERCOACH ANSWERS
Kelly has a break-even score of 136 points this round and once again the smart choice would to turn him into Patrick Dangerfield after he racked up 133 points against Carlton. Gold Coast concede the most points to midfielders and Dangerfield is close to a must-have.
If you’re looking for a point of difference, then how can you pass up Andrew Gaff? He’s in career-best form and has recorded disposal tallies of 33, 36, 36, 36 and 30 from his past five games against this week’s opponent St Kilda. All roads lead to another 30-plus disposal game on Saturday night. Adding the Gaff’s appeal is that the Saints leak the third-most points to midfielders this season.
Scott Pendlebury is also an option this round. It’s hard to remember the last time he was priced under $500k. He is averaging 106 points in full games which is almost identical to Dustin Martin and Joel Selwood. Pendlebury has three 100-plus point scores against Fremantle from his past four games against them.
It’s been a great ride, Tim Kelly.Andrew Gaff has a three-round average of 117.
ROOKIE WATCH
It’s time to pull the trigger and trade in defence, with both Jeremy Finlayson and Sam Murray prime candidates to get the chop.
The Giants named five inclusions for Sunday’s game against Adelaide including two first-gamers, with no sign of Finlayson. Murray has been named on Collingwood’s extended bench against Fremantle but is unlikely to make the final team based on post-match comments from Nathan Buckley last week suggesting that he may have an extended spell in the VFL.
Bailey Rice should be the top defensive target after he played his second match on the weekend. He has done everything right so far, ranking third at the Saints for intercept possessions (14) since Round 9.
Teammate Logan Austin is also an option after he debuted with 23 disposals and 106 points. With Nathan Brown, Dylan Roberton, Sam Gilbert and the suspended Jack Carlisle all missing, jobs security isn’t an issue for either player.
Jordan Ridley is an alternative to the Saints duo, but a return from injury by Michael Hurley could oust him from the Bombers backline. An injury to Patrick Ambrose though could see Ridley remain in the side, but I’d look to the Saints duo ahead of the young Bomber regardless.
Bailey Rice and Tim Smith SuperCoach are this week’s top rookie picks.
The No. 1 trade-in target this round has to be Melbourne’s Tim Smith with his low break-even score (-116) ensuring he booms in price after his next game. He has looked right at home in the Dees’ forward line, scoring 91 and 101 points from two games.
Zac Giles-Langdon has to go this week even though he has a reachable break-even score of 34 points. Jake Waterman (85 BE) and Billy Gowers (71 BE) are also ready to be culled in attack.
SuperCoaches with Charlie Spargo, Nick Holman and Ed Phillips in the midfield face a major selection headache as to which player to field on the ground. If you also own Dom Barry, the closeness of Melbourne and Port Adelaide start times makes it impossible to loophole Spargo. So essentially, you have to make a call and stick with it. Good luck!
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Sydney Swans vs Carlton
Lance Franklin kicked 10 goals and had 183 points when these sides last met in Round 23 last season at the SCG. Kade Simpson finished with 29 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 115 points.
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne
Luke Dahlhaus suffered his fifth consecutive price drop last round after scoring 84 points against Collingwood. Jake Lever’s price spike by $26,200 after scoring 99 points against former side Adelaide Crows.
Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide
Jarryd Roughead finished with 18 disposals, two goals and 89 points when he last played Port Adelaide in Round 11 last season. Travis Boak had 23 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 101 points for the Power.
Gold Coast vs Geelong
Aaron Hall averaged 27 disposals, four tackles, seven score involvements and 101 points at Metricon Stadium last season. Joel Selwood has averaged 28 disposals and 113 points from his four games at the venue.
Essendon vs Richmond
Zach Merrett has scored 100-plus points in two of four games at the MCG this season including 118 against Geelong in Round 9. Alex Rance’s only three-figure score at the MCG came against Hawthorn in Round 3.
West Coast vs St Kilda
Andrew Gaff has had 30-plus disposals in each of his past five games against St Kilda, averaging 34 disposals and 99 points. Jack Steven has averaged 27 disposals and 101 points in these games.
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions
Todd Goldstein celebrated his 200th AFL match in style last round against Fremantle, kicking a late goal to score 102 points. Mitch Robinson had a blinder against Sydney, finishing with a career-high 26 contested possessions and 172 points.
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Brodie Grundy is averaging 125 points against bottom-10 sides this season, ranked No. 1 at the Magpies. Nat Fyfe is averaging 130 points against top-eight opposition, ranked No. 1 at the Dockers.
Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants
With scores of 47 and a season-low 42 points from his past two games, Sam Jacobs’ price has plummeted by $67,500. Jeremy Cameron’s 61 points against Essendon last week was his second-lowest score of the year, falling by $19,700.