SC 2018 season analysis (little bits of gold).

[freowho]

I thought it might be good to have 1 thread for any little insights the community might have found when looking at 2018.

I'll start it off with the players who had the biggest difference between their supercoach per time on ground for the year compared to their supercoach average for the year. This has helped me find Lachie Neale and David Armitage in the past. sc is supercoach average, st is supercoach per time on ground, tg is time on ground and g is home and away games played for the year. Age is how old they will be next year. I've included stats for past years for context. As an example NicNat, Ollie Wines and Matt Crouch keep coming up on this list but their aerobic capacity seems to be stopping them from increasing their time on ground.
Looking at the names below Brayden Sier, Todd Marshall and Paul Ahern look like players who have room for improvement given their age and time on ground.

 

[freowho]

I looked at how the top supercoach rucks were affected by their opponent in 2018. On average I went down to Bellchambers and didn't include Sandilands scores because he didn't play many games but included him as an opponent, FremantleA is against Sandi and Fremantle is without Sandi.
Grundy doesn't get Sandi until rnd 11, Gawn until rnd 12 and plays West Coast in rnd 3 where NicNat won't play. They would be the 3 main threats to a big early price drop. The only other one might be Stef Martin in rnd 5 who he had 110 and 121 against this year. Given he is also a great VC not starting him could be painful.
For those looking at an R2 placeholder definitely avoid one that plays Gawn early as he destroyed his opponents scores this year. Even if his average goes down with Preuss in the team he should still be an opponent to avoid.
Goldstein potentially starts with Sandi and Stef!

 

[freowho]

Dangerfield???
The old data is a bit dodgy so I might have missed something BUT..........
There are 65 players in supercoach who have 2400+ home and away seasons.
Only 5 have played more games than Danger at the start of a 2400+ home and away season.
Brad Johnson 254 games, 2479 points.
Brent Harvey 241 games, 2471 points.
Gary Ablett 232 games, 2707 points.
Adam Goodes, 230 games, 2515 points.
Dean Cox, 227 games, 2471 points.
Danger is on 224 games.

Only 6 have posted 2400+ home and away seasons in their 12th plus year of playing AFL.
Brad Johnson in his 13th year, 2479 points.
Brent Harvey in his 13th year, 2471 points.
Gary Ablett in his 12th year, 2707 points.
Dean Cox in his 12th year, 2471 points.
Scott Thompson in his 12th year, 2431 points.
Leigh Montagna in his 12th year, 2411 points.
Danger is entering his 12th year.

I know we have PIT scores to cover games lost but how many points will we be happy with? You could mount an argument he will be priced at 2600+ points? Ablett is the only name above to do it. If we are looking for 2400 points there will probably be half a dozen other mids that will do the same job for less cost.

As an aside these are the players with the least number of games before a 2400+ home and away season.
Shane Tuck, 3 games, 2464 points.
Clayton Oliver, 14 games, 2453 points.
Zach Merrett, 37 games, 2453 points.
Max Gawn, 39 games, 2607 points.
Jimmy Bartel, 40 games, 2516 points.

I was surprised how many players had 2400+ home and away seasons with so few games under their belt. 19 had less than 70 games.

 

[freowho]

In 14 years of supercoach there have been 44 times where a player has recorded a 120+ average for the home and away season. 15 times have these players backed up with another 120+ average the following year. 5 players account for these 15 times. Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Fyfe and Dangerfield.
On 6 of these occasions the player either dropped over $100k or went under $600k before rnd 9 of the second year. On 2 occasions Pendlebury dropped to $613 and $610K by round 10. Probably gettable. In 2014 Ablett had 2 big captains scores but also missed 2 games and scored a 64 in round 11. Could be argued both ways. There are 6 clear occasions where not starting the 120+ player the following year has been painful and Ablett has 4 of them. Fyfe in 2015 and Pendles in 2014 are the other two. 3 players in 14 years have been able to come out guns blazing from a high starting price.