Position Midfielder Discussion

[gutsroy]

How low will treloar be as I play for overall but everyone everywhere says don’t start he will be way cheaper to get

His scoring variance (absolute and normalized to score) are at the lower end of top 20 mid premos.
Barring injury, don’t see him as having high price fluctuations, more gradual decay due to the MN (think he’s at best a 110-115 type due to kick: handball ratio and kicking efficiency), so priced close enough to his ceiling.
But haven’t looked at draw / other factors.

 

[gutsroy]

What are peoples thoughts on Kade Kolodjashnij who was suffering from concussion?

Not fully across it, but had looked at him recently, too. Think he was one of a few Dees not participating in a number of drills and also limited in terms of running work, but he might have started ramping that up in the meantime.
Don’t think I’d look at Bennell / Kolodjashnij types until the round they were on the bubble (not sure either will make the round 1 squad, so not likely to be starters).
Hope he comes good, showed some real promise prior to all the setbacks, has had a really rough trot.

 

[Leroy]

Predictions for what Sam Walsh will average this season?

Can he increase his average like Clayton Oliver did in his second year of senior footy?

There was a bit of a Sam Walsh discussion a few pages back where I pulled up some numbers...

Don't know how to link to posts without quoting on my mobile so maybe a mod can clean it up.

Clayton Oliver went 22/111 in his 2nd season after 13/70 in his 1st.
Fyfe went 21/108 after 16/72.
The Bont went 20/103 after 16/78.

Sam Walsh has just blazed 22/87 in year one and looks as good a footballer as any. While 2nd year blues are certainly common, the best can make a massive jump up as well. Is he going to go at 105? Be worth a start if you thought he was...

Bont, Oliver and Fyfe all had the ability to win contested ball from day dot. Walsh is an outside accumulator in the Gaff mould but he is a special talent and is capable of averaging up to 30 disposals in his second season. I am reluctant to pick the uncontested types in SC because they need 30 disposals to barely break the ton.

Good take. Just looking at the stats, in their first two years, CP% and average disposals for those other guys were:
Oliver: 19 disposals at 50% contested, then up to 30 at 51%.
Fyfe: 16 at 44%, then 25 at 50%
Bont: 16 at 46%, then 21 at 49%

Walsh averaged 25 disposals at 38% contested last year.

As a comparison, in 2019 Gaff averaged 32 possessions at 29% contested. In Gaff's first year he averaged 18 disposals at 25% contested.

Folding that together, Walsh is definitely more contested than Gaff, but cleary not as contested as Oliver/Bont/Fyfe were at that stage, although he is a stellar ball winner.

The big increases for the other guys mainly came from finding more ball (becoming a little more contested contributed some). Walsh is starting from a better base but as @Agent 47 said: looks like he'd need nearly 30 disposals a game to get past 100.

 

[Bomber18]

The hindsight “right”premo starter mids will be interesting this year. Many are pretty keen on Dunkley and Neale but I’m pretty certain they won’t start for me. Dunkley had a huge +20ppg spike in scoring and much more often than not, players don’t improve on their breakout season. At this stage, not buying that he’ll average 120-125 and think he’ll be more 110. Would prefer to wait and see on him.
Neale has better history in scoring, but the history is 110 scoring rather than 120 scoring. I reckon Neale will come down below 580k at some point after a few tags. Also think he will finish more around 110 as the lions will have a tougher draw this year and Neale may have more competition for inside ball this season compared to last.

JKelly is the slightly riskier pick I’m liking at this stage. His game count in the last two years isnt as good as Neale/Dunkley, but I like his scoring potential and think with a better preseason, he can turn that iffy game count around.

 

[Zagbag]

The hindsight “right”premo starter mids will be interesting this year. Many are pretty keen on Dunkley and Neale but I’m pretty certain they won’t start for me. Dunkley had a huge +20ppg spike in scoring and much more often than not, players don’t improve on their breakout season. At this stage, not buying that he’ll average 120-125 and think he’ll be more 110. Would prefer to wait and see on him.
Neale has better history in scoring, but the history is 110 scoring rather than 120 scoring. I reckon Neale will come down below 580k at some point after a few tags. Also think he will finish more around 110 as the lions will have a tougher draw this year and Neale may have more competition for inside ball this season compared to last.

JKelly is the slightly riskier pick I’m liking at this stage. His game count in the last two years isnt as good as Neale/Dunkley, but I like his scoring potential and think with a better preseason, he can turn that iffy game count around.

Totally agree. Dunkley is a superstar player, and so versatile - you wonder if that versatility might end up costing him? I bought him at his lowest possible price last year, so I had a great experience - but I have my doubts about whether he can improve.

On the flip side, I’ve never been a regular Neale owner, but it won’t take long until he starts getting more attention. Can’t knock his durability though. I’d prefer JKelly as you say.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

The hindsight “right”premo starter mids will be interesting this year. Many are pretty keen on Dunkley and Neale but I’m pretty certain they won’t start for me. Dunkley had a huge +20ppg spike in scoring and much more often than not, players don’t improve on their breakout season. At this stage, not buying that he’ll average 120-125 and think he’ll be more 110. Would prefer to wait and see on him.
Neale has better history in scoring, but the history is 110 scoring rather than 120 scoring. I reckon Neale will come down below 580k at some point after a few tags. Also think he will finish more around 110 as the lions will have a tougher draw this year and Neale may have more competition for inside ball this season compared to last.

JKelly is the slightly riskier pick I’m liking at this stage. His game count in the last two years isnt as good as Neale/Dunkley, but I like his scoring potential and think with a better preseason, he can turn that iffy game count around.

Totally agree. Dunkley is a superstar player, and so versatile - you wonder if that versatility might end up costing him? I bought him at his lowest possible price last year, so I had a great experience - but I have my doubts about whether he can improve.

On the flip side, I’ve never been a regular Neale owner, but it won’t take long until he starts getting more attention. Can’t knock his durability though. I’d prefer JKelly as you say.

Agree, some risk Dunk slightly weakens. Although, given trend, is Danger going the same way and could he be 110 this year.

Age for Dunks and Bont though are also favourable and reason to argue they could improve too given 2H skew. Neale could keep getting attention or maybe some goes to Lyons/Zorko again.

To me, downside risk is greater in a Fyfe from role change, injury risk in a Kelly. The Dogs bye round is a positive.

Treloar started to balance DE and accumulation, could be flat this year.

 

[Bermi]

Hannebery has put in 3 solid weeks of training, hmmm, maybe he is over his injuries curse
Seb Ross (calf) is set to return to training next week.

DAN HANNEBERY looks set to be unleashed in the upcoming Marsh Community Series after putting together a solid three weeks of training after breaking his right foot in October.
The St Kilda midfielder suffered the freak injury shortly into his off-season break last year when he tripped on a small set of stairs while visiting his sister and her fiancé in Perth...……..
……...the 28-year-old has turned a corner in his recovery and has been in full training for three weeks, meaning he appears a likely starter for the Saints' first pre-season game on February 20...…...

Looking set to join Hannebery in the clash with Hawthorn in two weeks is defender Dylan Roberton, who also moved well in the intense scratch match on Thursday.
Roberton is looking to resume his playing career this year after last playing in round four, 2018; the game where he collapsed behind play with a heart issue that has since required the insertion of an internal defibrillator.
The 28-year-old was set to resume in early 2019 but his defibrillator activated in a pre-season game and he subsequently sat out the entire year to ensure his irregularity was under control.

Roberton played on the wing and in defence, where he faces hot competition to break into the side following the recruitment of Dougal Howard and the emergence of Callum Wilkie and Josh Battle last season.

Also notable in Thursday's match practice was new recruit Bradley Hill, who really got moving after half-time and showcased his blistering pace and pinpoint accuracy.

At one point, the wingman burst through the middle and blasted the ball to a leading – and trimmed down – Paddy Ryder, who spent most of the game in the forward line.

Ryder swapped in and out with the much-improved Rowan Marshall in what's set to be a flexible pairing where both will spend time in attack and the ruck.

Another off-season acquisition in Zak Jones was typically hard at it in the middle while former Tiger Dan Butler did a few nice things up forward.

Talented forward Max King impressed with a contested mark in front of Jake Carlisle, which he followed up with a nice goal, while Ben Long collected plenty of the ball and was another standout.

Captain Jarryn Geary, Seb Ross, Matt Parker and Sam Alabakis sat out the game while Jimmy Webster didn't play in the last quarter and ran laps instead.

Ross (calf) is set to return to training next week while Geary (calf) and Parker (foot) will follow the week after.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/369823/big-name-saint-set-for-marsh-minutes-after-luckless-2019

 

[BIGB0Y]

Agree, some risk Dunk slightly weakens. Although, given trend, is Danger going the same way and could he be 110 this year.

Age for Dunks and Bont though are also favourable and reason to argue they could improve too given 2H skew. Neale could keep getting attention or maybe some goes to Lyons/Zorko again.

To me, downside risk is greater in a Fyfe from role change, injury risk in a Kelly. The Dogs bye round is a positive.

Treloar started to balance DE and accumulation, could be flat this year.

dangerfield was first picked in my team. take his score of 26 out against essendon he averaged 120 for the year. with kelly gone and selwood slowing down, he will be by far the number 1 man in that midfield. in my opinion will be a top 3 mid this year. danger has been super durable over the years to missing 6 games in 9 years.

 

[jarrad_]

also has de Boer round 1 and hutchings round 3

 

[Bermi]

dangerfield was first picked in my team. take his score of 26 out against essendon he averaged 120 for the year. with kelly gone and selwood slowing down, he will be by far the number 1 man in that midfield. in my opinion will be a top 3 mid this year. danger has been super durable over the years to missing 6 games in 9 years.

Dangerfield has been in and out of my team. He's at an age where he is slowing down too. He could score well in the early rounds with Duncan also possibly not match fit (besides Rd1 coping the DeBoar tag EDIT and Hutchings Rd3). Dangefield seems to score best when he is relied upon to carry the team.

Duncan has been on a modified program following an off-season shoulder injury and recently underwent a minor surgery on his hip.
“It was one of those things where he was training, and he just pulled up sore, football boss Simon Lloyd said speaking to krockfootball.com.au.
“They spent a period of a week or so trying to just work with the medical team and the physios to get him right, and it didn’t improve.
“So, he went through the scans and saw the specialist, and we thought it’s best to actually intervene with this now so that he’s right come the start of the season.”
https://www.geelongcats.com.au/news/550535/injury-update-duncan-and-selwood-latest

 

[Eagling]

I've heard from some people that Dunkley is possibly the worst forward in the Doggies Mid rotation big 3. Don't know how true that is, but the upside for Dunkley is there - he's potentially 10 ppg underpriced with a permanent midfield role, he could 125+ for the season.

Of course, there's a chance he'll be sent forward, but he's still only getting into finding his level as SC scorer, and could easily be absolutely elite.

 

[Pieman17]

No love for Coniglio this year ?

 

[50 shades of Wade]

No love for Coniglio this year ?

There are to many premiums in the GWS mid field with ward coming back

 

[Bermi]

I've heard from some people that Dunkley is possibly the worst forward in the Doggies Mid rotation big 3. Don't know how true that is, but the upside for Dunkley is there - he's potentially 10 ppg underpriced with a permanent midfield role, he could 125+ for the season.

Of course, there's a chance he'll be sent forward, but he's still only getting into finding his level as SC scorer, and could easily be absolutely elite.

I remember reading that Dunkley himself saying he is bad at kicking goals.

 

[Bermi]

No love for Coniglio this year ?

Coniglio coming off a knee injury and Kelly injury prone. I would risk only one of them and I'd rather chance Kelly.

 

[Zoku Pops]

Starting both Kelly & Fyfe to risky?

Kelly I see upside in and Fyfe I just love having in my team but both come with injury risks.

 

[Agent 47]

I remember reading that Dunkley himself saying he is bad at kicking goals.

Bont is just about the worst in the league when it comes to goal kicking accuracy. 15.27 from a man of his talent is appalling.

 

[wt44]

I like the idea of Josh Kelly but he is a straight up flat track bully who consistently goes missing in last quarters when the game is up for grabs. Did it at least 5 times last year and his constant injury threat makes it a big no imo.

 

[Bermi]

Bont is just about the worst in the league when it comes to goal kicking accuracy. 15.27 from a man of his talent is appalling.

Maybe that's why WBDs targeted Josh Bruce, neither Bont or Dunk can be relied to kick goals.

 

[Bermi]

I like the idea of Josh Kelly but he is a straight up flat track bully who consistently goes missing in last quarters when the game is up for grabs. Did it at least 5 times last year and his constant injury threat makes it a big no imo.

Maybe J Kelly fading in the last quarters had to do with being injured a lot. Just wasn't fit.