Position 2021: Ruck Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
- Start date
@Connoisseur
I know you love your ruck stats , so was just curious to how many of Grundy's HTA went to Treloar over the last few seasons and what % of all his HTA that was.
Cheers
I know you love your ruck stats , so was just curious to how many of Grundy's HTA went to Treloar over the last few seasons and what % of all his HTA that was.
Cheers
That's a pretty big "if". He's only had 3 scores under 85 in the last 3 seasons, one of them was an injury which he followed up with 117, 132, 133 and 134, one was an 82 that he followed up with back to back 156s (to end the season) and the other was a 76 he followed up with 140, 145, 151 and 131.
I think he's overpriced but Preuss is so high risk, basically there is Hickey as a bailout in the event he is injured or just fails. He also needs to do pretty damn well to close it inside 2 trades, even if Gawn falls 100k. If Gawn holds even remotely close to where is he or Preuss is just average it becomes a nightmare upgrade. Realistically Preuss probably needs to be at 95, last year with the inflated ruck scoring there were only 9 rucks, and that includes Stanley's 7 game effort, that made that level. Guys like Sinclair, Darcy, Soldo, Ceglar and Pittonet were all only 70s types. There were 7 in 2019 with the enormous ROB breakout being the 7th.
I actually think Preuss has looked decent and can do it, more just for the planning involved in case he doesn't which is also absolutely possible.
I think he's overpriced but Preuss is so high risk, basically there is Hickey as a bailout in the event he is injured or just fails. He also needs to do pretty damn well to close it inside 2 trades, even if Gawn falls 100k. If Gawn holds even remotely close to where is he or Preuss is just average it becomes a nightmare upgrade. Realistically Preuss probably needs to be at 95, last year with the inflated ruck scoring there were only 9 rucks, and that includes Stanley's 7 game effort, that made that level. Guys like Sinclair, Darcy, Soldo, Ceglar and Pittonet were all only 70s types. There were 7 in 2019 with the enormous ROB breakout being the 7th.
I actually think Preuss has looked decent and can do it, more just for the planning involved in case he doesn't which is also absolutely possible.
Some stats on Gawn & his early draw courtesy of @Connoisseur :-
M Gawn:
RD1: Avg VS Freo since 2015: 136.2 from 5
RD2: Avg VS StK since 2015: 118 from 11
RD3: Avg VS GWS since 2015: 135.17 from 6
RD4: Avg VS Geel since 2015: 103.57 from 7
RD5: Avg VS Haw since 2015: 141.4 from 5
RD6: Avg VS Rich since 2015: 150.6 from 5
RD7: Avg VS NM since 2015: 138.4 from 5
Last 3 matches against each side:
132+151+151
135+133+126
150+149+156
141+116+93
185+127+112
163+134+145
212+117+111
= 139.95 from 21 (1/21 below 100, 16/21 120+, 7/21 150+)
Amazing history there, I can't see him starting slowly myself & looms as a great VC/Capt option over those first 7 weeks (probably the whole year tbh).
M Gawn:
RD1: Avg VS Freo since 2015: 136.2 from 5
RD2: Avg VS StK since 2015: 118 from 11
RD3: Avg VS GWS since 2015: 135.17 from 6
RD4: Avg VS Geel since 2015: 103.57 from 7
RD5: Avg VS Haw since 2015: 141.4 from 5
RD6: Avg VS Rich since 2015: 150.6 from 5
RD7: Avg VS NM since 2015: 138.4 from 5
Last 3 matches against each side:
132+151+151
135+133+126
150+149+156
141+116+93
185+127+112
163+134+145
212+117+111
= 139.95 from 21 (1/21 below 100, 16/21 120+, 7/21 150+)
Amazing history there, I can't see him starting slowly myself & looms as a great VC/Capt option over those first 7 weeks (probably the whole year tbh).
This is awesome and definitely something everyone should at least read!
My other thought with this one is the ease of fixing the worst case scenario from starting either.
Say Gawn..
First few rounds he scores poorly.. maybe an 80ish score and 100ish score.. going into round 3 he has a high BE and potential cash drop. There are nerves about what will happen from here.. is his elite scoring drying up? Maybe a preseason niggle? maybe just starting slow? Who knows.. but you're worried. You can back him in to shake it off or bail out to any other ruckman out there (even Preuss if he has started well). No guarantee either option works out for the best.. but the key is you have options.
Now Preuss..
He scores poorly as well. Clearly isn't at a level where he'll make cash quickly and you're bleeding points to those that started the Gawn/Grundy types (or even the next tier down). You're stuck with a player who isn't a keeper.. isn't making money.. and isn't scoring points. Add to that he's now getting JS concerns.. But you've spent your cash and now you have a 300k ruckman and no obvious bail out. Maybe you've got Marshall you can swing up there, but now you've lost your ruck/fwd swing and have to bring in a 300k player from another line. Absolute best case you use it to grab a rookie you missed you're still now down a keeper and still a mile off Gawn, and probably unlikely to be able to get him until at least the byes. That is a seriously long time and probably 2-3 trades (including the Preuss out trade) to be without someone who should (all things being even) average at least 120-125. Scary stuff!
Obviously this is one very slanted view towards what could go wrong with either and there is clear upside opportunities to starting both as well, but my experience is often we oversell the upside and undersell the risk so it's worth keeping in mind.
My other thought with this one is the ease of fixing the worst case scenario from starting either.
Say Gawn..
First few rounds he scores poorly.. maybe an 80ish score and 100ish score.. going into round 3 he has a high BE and potential cash drop. There are nerves about what will happen from here.. is his elite scoring drying up? Maybe a preseason niggle? maybe just starting slow? Who knows.. but you're worried. You can back him in to shake it off or bail out to any other ruckman out there (even Preuss if he has started well). No guarantee either option works out for the best.. but the key is you have options.
Now Preuss..
He scores poorly as well. Clearly isn't at a level where he'll make cash quickly and you're bleeding points to those that started the Gawn/Grundy types (or even the next tier down). You're stuck with a player who isn't a keeper.. isn't making money.. and isn't scoring points. Add to that he's now getting JS concerns.. But you've spent your cash and now you have a 300k ruckman and no obvious bail out. Maybe you've got Marshall you can swing up there, but now you've lost your ruck/fwd swing and have to bring in a 300k player from another line. Absolute best case you use it to grab a rookie you missed you're still now down a keeper and still a mile off Gawn, and probably unlikely to be able to get him until at least the byes. That is a seriously long time and probably 2-3 trades (including the Preuss out trade) to be without someone who should (all things being even) average at least 120-125. Scary stuff!
Obviously this is one very slanted view towards what could go wrong with either and there is clear upside opportunities to starting both as well, but my experience is often we oversell the upside and undersell the risk so it's worth keeping in mind.
- Joined
- 23 Jan 2014
- Messages
- 675
- Likes
- 2,480
Every year I try to get too cute with my Rucks and it almost always backfires, so set and forget has got to be the go this season.
Went with English last year and because of the 2 round price change and him being destroyed by Grundy rnd 1, I traded him out only for him to go berserk, which was really annoying..
Went with English last year and because of the 2 round price change and him being destroyed by Grundy rnd 1, I traded him out only for him to go berserk, which was really annoying..
- Joined
- 31 Jul 2013
- Messages
- 491
- Likes
- 1,397
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Compelling numbers but regardless it's not a case of if he goes down in value but how much. It's true Gawn as a C option is huge tho
I think most would say Preuss scores min 80 that means ~200k more salary for the Preuss owner by mid season.
Still Gawn vs Preuss isn't a fair comp.
Its more like Gawn + you're 4th (or 5th?) onield rookie vs. Preuss + Taranto/Heeney (note second combo is cheaper!)...
With the 60k to spare still....maybe you even get an extra onfield rookies option like B.Campbell vs random 123k
The cash you save and where it goes is what matters.
Gawn inevitably gives you the huge C option but you are definitely paying for it and you introduce (very likely) exposure to a rookie who will give you a 30 or even a donut when they're dropped.
Gawn himself isn't risky. Bit without solid JS rookies he's gonna push you mid pricer or force 1-2 extra onfield rookies
This debate rages rightfully so every year.
Im such a sucker for a mid price ruck I know I'll probably end up with Preuss so I'm also biased!!
I think most would say Preuss scores min 80 that means ~200k more salary for the Preuss owner by mid season.
Still Gawn vs Preuss isn't a fair comp.
Its more like Gawn + you're 4th (or 5th?) onield rookie vs. Preuss + Taranto/Heeney (note second combo is cheaper!)...
With the 60k to spare still....maybe you even get an extra onfield rookies option like B.Campbell vs random 123k
The cash you save and where it goes is what matters.
Gawn inevitably gives you the huge C option but you are definitely paying for it and you introduce (very likely) exposure to a rookie who will give you a 30 or even a donut when they're dropped.
Gawn himself isn't risky. Bit without solid JS rookies he's gonna push you mid pricer or force 1-2 extra onfield rookies
This debate rages rightfully so every year.
Im such a sucker for a mid price ruck I know I'll probably end up with Preuss so I'm also biased!!
Will add to the Gawn debate and trying to get him cheaper.
Last year he started at $697k, the lowest he got to was $673 in round 14. Even After his 87 and 107 in R9-10 he didn't drop below his starting price, mainly because he went 163, 153, 185, 157 before that and was a 100k more than his staring price.
2019 started at 692k, the lowest he got was 609 not until round 18. He did drop to 640k in round 5 but I doubt anyone would have the funds to upgrade then.
2018 started at 504k, never got cheaper than that.
Last year he started at $697k, the lowest he got to was $673 in round 14. Even After his 87 and 107 in R9-10 he didn't drop below his starting price, mainly because he went 163, 153, 185, 157 before that and was a 100k more than his staring price.
2019 started at 692k, the lowest he got was 609 not until round 18. He did drop to 640k in round 5 but I doubt anyone would have the funds to upgrade then.
2018 started at 504k, never got cheaper than that.
- Joined
- 31 Jul 2013
- Messages
- 491
- Likes
- 1,397
- AFL Club
- Richmond
I think it's clear last year is a bad year to compare to. The sheer number of 150s across the board shows that. It's whether he 'just falls' to 130 or 120.
If Preuss went 90 first 6 rds and Gawn goes 130 -> lets assume non-Gawn owners do ok with their captions
I think the initial 450k (!!!) difference can plug that 40ppg gap AND you are 150k ahead at least....of course he'll.still be hard to.reach but that's where hopefully a bit of luck and good planning comes in.
If Preuss went 90 first 6 rds and Gawn goes 130 -> lets assume non-Gawn owners do ok with their captions
I think the initial 450k (!!!) difference can plug that 40ppg gap AND you are 150k ahead at least....of course he'll.still be hard to.reach but that's where hopefully a bit of luck and good planning comes in.