News Herald Sun SuperCoach Articles
- Thread starter Presto
- Start date
Heeney elite from 5 and a bit games, Rampe elite from 11 games and Lloyd elite at all is quite entertaining. Mills and Papley are the only two Swans who had a case at being elite last year.
This is the textbook example of a system where the results invalidate the system, you need to re-design it. Any system designed to find elite that turns up Zac Fisher, Motlop and McEvoy, among several others, is not working.
This is the textbook example of a system where the results invalidate the system, you need to re-design it. Any system designed to find elite that turns up Zac Fisher, Motlop and McEvoy, among several others, is not working.
KFC SuperCoach 2021: All the premium options to pick, consider and avoid in the ruck
Is Max Gawn worth the highest price tag in KFC SuperCoach history? And are there legitimate challengers to the big two? The Phantom analyses the premium rucks.
The Phantom
26 min read
February 5, 2021 - 3:25PM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
There’s some value around in the ruck this season, with Braydon Preuss, who is set to take up the No. 1 ruck role at the Giants, leading the way.
But even if you’re going with a cheaper R2 option, you should be spending the big bucks at No. 1
But who do you go with - Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy?
Or is there a legitimate challenger to the big two?
Here’s a look at the top-price ruck options for 2021.
SET-AND-FORGET
Max Gawn (Melb) $751,400
Look at that price.
After Gawn posted 12 KFC SuperCoach tons – a staggering seven in excess of 150 - it’s the most expensive in our great game’s history.
But we will ever see it again?
I don’t think so – not this year anyway.
That’s not saying he won’t finish as the No. 1 scorer in the game again, his average may just take a hit.
You don’t me need to tell you how influential he is in the ruck and around the ground but you may need to be told this influence appears to have been scaled up further than usual in shortened quarters last year.
Gawn spent longer on the ground, he’s better at performing under pressure and, given there was less time to affect the match, more players had minimal impact at the bottom-end than usual. It resulted in more scaling done at the top-end, and the Melbourne big man was always there.
In 2019, Gawn scored 150 or more in 19 per cent of his matches. Last year, it was 50 per cent.
Big scores – 140 or more – were up across the board, with 16 more recorded despite 90 less total games being played.
Again, while there may not be a repeat of the extraordinary stretch between rounds four and eight, which featured scores of 141, 163, 153, 185 and 157, he will still go big.
Especially with match-ups against Sean Darcy, Braydon Preuss, Rhys Stanley and Ben McEvoy/Jon Ceglar in the opening six rounds.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m tipping Gawn to still lead the competition but he may do it with an average closer to 130 – and that means a significant price fall. You’re getting the likely No. 1 scorer in his position and a go-to captain option, but there’s better value.
Brodie Grundy (Coll) $648,200
And this guy is that value.
He played second fiddle to Gawn last year, but in the previous two seasons, the Collingwood big man was the No. 1 player in KFC SuperCoach.
Not just of all ruckmen. Grundy scored more points than anyone else, after posting KFC SuperCoach tons in 38 of his 44 matches.
His other six scores were 81, 84, 86, 99, 95 and 98.
Was he carrying an injury 2020? Was his form a direct reflection of the difficulties of hub life? Did the shorter quarters limit his ability as an accumulator?
Possibly yes to all of the above.
The 26-year-old is also as durable as the come, playing every home-and-away game in the past three seasons and missing just three matches since 2015.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Expect Grundy to meet Gawn in the middle at around the 130-point mark this year. And that makes the $100k difference very, very appealing.
THE CHALLENGERS
Reilly O’Brien (Adel) $570,800
In the 13th game of his career, in Round 13, 2019, O’Brien announced himself as a KFC SuperCoach ruckmen of the future, scoring a huge 181 points against the Tigers.
It was also the confirmation, he was Adelaide’s No. 1 big man, and that Sam Jacobs’ time was up.
He kicked off 2020 with 107 and 161 in the opening two rounds, before struggling with some inconsistency.
But, on the back of a strong finish – he averaged 119 in the final month of the year – O’Brien increased his KFC SuperCoach from 95 to 106.
He may be the sixth-ranked ruckman for hitouts-to-advantage but the 25-year-old finished with more tackles, contested marks and intercepts marks than Gawn and Grundy last year.
And he’s still only played 37 AFL games.
So can the young Crow seriously challenge the top two as his all-round game continues to develop?
The Phantom’s Verdict : Maybe not this year, but KFC SuperCoaches should still expect another spike.
Tim English (WB) $551,200
Tim English is the next Dean Cox, the champion former West Coast Eagle who was just as dominant around the ground, with his ball-winning and foot skills, as he was in the ruck.
That was the statement made by many 12 months again, even earlier by some.
Yes, I was one of them.
And after seven rounds last year, there weren’t many arguing.
After a quiet opening two rounds, out-muscled by Brodie Grundy and then the Paddy Ryder-Rowan Marshall combination, English exploded, posting scores of 120, 145, 125, 105 and 204 in the next five matches.
His influence was then quelled around the ground and in the air for the best part of two months, before finishing strongly with a 126-point three-round average.
Assessing his 2020 numbers per 100 minutes, English, on average, had more disposals, marks, intercept marks, goals and effective kicks than he did in 2019.
The 23-year-old’s hitout numbers were also up slightly, with English winning 5.4 hitouts-to-advantage per game – up from 5.1.
It’s an area he still falls behind in but the arrival of Stefan Martin as both big-bodied support, and as a mentor, will help, as will another pre-season.
Cox’s first big season, number-wise, was his fifth – and that’s where English is at in 2021.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s got a way to go, but that’s exciting for the Bulldogs and KFC SuperCoaches. It would still be brave call to start him in 2021, however.
CAN HE MAINTAIN IT?
Nic Naitanui (WC) $593,700
Less matches, shorter quarters and scaling weighted more in-favour of high-impact acts. Was there a player more suited to KFC SuperCoach in 2020 than Naitanui?
No.
But, despite nine KFC SuperCoach tons – five of them in excess of 135 – the answer to the question of whether or not he can better his 2020 average of 110 and seriously challenge Grundy and Gawn is just as definitive.
No.
And, at the price, you would be picking him to do exactly that.
The Phantom’s Verdict: As much as I love watching him play, he’s not a point-of-difference I’d be banking on this year.
DOES HE STILL HAVE IT?
Todd Goldstein (NM) $601,700
In the three years following his dominant 2015 season, which saw him average 129 KFC SuperCoach points as the No. 1 scorer in the game, Goldstein fell, posting season averages of 108, 95 and 101.
Many wrote him off as legitimate challenger to the No. 1 ruck spot.
But after 112 in each of the past two seasons – to rank third behind Gawn and Grundy – the answer to the subhead is yes, he does.
The Phantom’s Verdict: But is it enough to start him? Not with Grundy just $47k away.
Is Max Gawn worth the highest price tag in KFC SuperCoach history? And are there legitimate challengers to the big two? The Phantom analyses the premium rucks.
The Phantom
26 min read
February 5, 2021 - 3:25PM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
There’s some value around in the ruck this season, with Braydon Preuss, who is set to take up the No. 1 ruck role at the Giants, leading the way.
But even if you’re going with a cheaper R2 option, you should be spending the big bucks at No. 1
But who do you go with - Max Gawn or Brodie Grundy?
Or is there a legitimate challenger to the big two?
Here’s a look at the top-price ruck options for 2021.
SET-AND-FORGET
Max Gawn (Melb) $751,400
Look at that price.
After Gawn posted 12 KFC SuperCoach tons – a staggering seven in excess of 150 - it’s the most expensive in our great game’s history.
But we will ever see it again?
I don’t think so – not this year anyway.
That’s not saying he won’t finish as the No. 1 scorer in the game again, his average may just take a hit.
You don’t me need to tell you how influential he is in the ruck and around the ground but you may need to be told this influence appears to have been scaled up further than usual in shortened quarters last year.
Gawn spent longer on the ground, he’s better at performing under pressure and, given there was less time to affect the match, more players had minimal impact at the bottom-end than usual. It resulted in more scaling done at the top-end, and the Melbourne big man was always there.
In 2019, Gawn scored 150 or more in 19 per cent of his matches. Last year, it was 50 per cent.
Big scores – 140 or more – were up across the board, with 16 more recorded despite 90 less total games being played.
Again, while there may not be a repeat of the extraordinary stretch between rounds four and eight, which featured scores of 141, 163, 153, 185 and 157, he will still go big.
Especially with match-ups against Sean Darcy, Braydon Preuss, Rhys Stanley and Ben McEvoy/Jon Ceglar in the opening six rounds.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m tipping Gawn to still lead the competition but he may do it with an average closer to 130 – and that means a significant price fall. You’re getting the likely No. 1 scorer in his position and a go-to captain option, but there’s better value.
Brodie Grundy (Coll) $648,200
And this guy is that value.
He played second fiddle to Gawn last year, but in the previous two seasons, the Collingwood big man was the No. 1 player in KFC SuperCoach.
Not just of all ruckmen. Grundy scored more points than anyone else, after posting KFC SuperCoach tons in 38 of his 44 matches.
His other six scores were 81, 84, 86, 99, 95 and 98.
Was he carrying an injury 2020? Was his form a direct reflection of the difficulties of hub life? Did the shorter quarters limit his ability as an accumulator?
Possibly yes to all of the above.
The 26-year-old is also as durable as the come, playing every home-and-away game in the past three seasons and missing just three matches since 2015.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Expect Grundy to meet Gawn in the middle at around the 130-point mark this year. And that makes the $100k difference very, very appealing.
THE CHALLENGERS
Reilly O’Brien (Adel) $570,800
In the 13th game of his career, in Round 13, 2019, O’Brien announced himself as a KFC SuperCoach ruckmen of the future, scoring a huge 181 points against the Tigers.
It was also the confirmation, he was Adelaide’s No. 1 big man, and that Sam Jacobs’ time was up.
He kicked off 2020 with 107 and 161 in the opening two rounds, before struggling with some inconsistency.
But, on the back of a strong finish – he averaged 119 in the final month of the year – O’Brien increased his KFC SuperCoach from 95 to 106.
He may be the sixth-ranked ruckman for hitouts-to-advantage but the 25-year-old finished with more tackles, contested marks and intercepts marks than Gawn and Grundy last year.
And he’s still only played 37 AFL games.
So can the young Crow seriously challenge the top two as his all-round game continues to develop?
The Phantom’s Verdict : Maybe not this year, but KFC SuperCoaches should still expect another spike.
Tim English (WB) $551,200
Tim English is the next Dean Cox, the champion former West Coast Eagle who was just as dominant around the ground, with his ball-winning and foot skills, as he was in the ruck.
That was the statement made by many 12 months again, even earlier by some.
Yes, I was one of them.
And after seven rounds last year, there weren’t many arguing.
After a quiet opening two rounds, out-muscled by Brodie Grundy and then the Paddy Ryder-Rowan Marshall combination, English exploded, posting scores of 120, 145, 125, 105 and 204 in the next five matches.
His influence was then quelled around the ground and in the air for the best part of two months, before finishing strongly with a 126-point three-round average.
Assessing his 2020 numbers per 100 minutes, English, on average, had more disposals, marks, intercept marks, goals and effective kicks than he did in 2019.
The 23-year-old’s hitout numbers were also up slightly, with English winning 5.4 hitouts-to-advantage per game – up from 5.1.
It’s an area he still falls behind in but the arrival of Stefan Martin as both big-bodied support, and as a mentor, will help, as will another pre-season.
Cox’s first big season, number-wise, was his fifth – and that’s where English is at in 2021.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s got a way to go, but that’s exciting for the Bulldogs and KFC SuperCoaches. It would still be brave call to start him in 2021, however.
CAN HE MAINTAIN IT?
Nic Naitanui (WC) $593,700
Less matches, shorter quarters and scaling weighted more in-favour of high-impact acts. Was there a player more suited to KFC SuperCoach in 2020 than Naitanui?
No.
But, despite nine KFC SuperCoach tons – five of them in excess of 135 – the answer to the question of whether or not he can better his 2020 average of 110 and seriously challenge Grundy and Gawn is just as definitive.
No.
And, at the price, you would be picking him to do exactly that.
The Phantom’s Verdict: As much as I love watching him play, he’s not a point-of-difference I’d be banking on this year.
DOES HE STILL HAVE IT?
Todd Goldstein (NM) $601,700
In the three years following his dominant 2015 season, which saw him average 129 KFC SuperCoach points as the No. 1 scorer in the game, Goldstein fell, posting season averages of 108, 95 and 101.
Many wrote him off as legitimate challenger to the No. 1 ruck spot.
But after 112 in each of the past two seasons – to rank third behind Gawn and Grundy – the answer to the subhead is yes, he does.
The Phantom’s Verdict: But is it enough to start him? Not with Grundy just $47k away.
FORWARDS
On first look, the forward line in KFC SuperCoach this year looks stacked.
Patrick Dangerfield, Rowan Marshall and Josh Dunkley return to the pool, while Steele Sidebottom adds another high-end premium option to the forward mix.
But, really, there are only 10 players priced at more than $475k – there are 25 in defence.
For this analysis, the price bracket has been extended to $460k.
But what does it all mean for KFC SuperCoaches?
Let’s find out.
THE LOCKS
Rowan Marshall (StK) $557,200, Ruck
There’s a strong case to make Marshall your first picked – and the player to build your forward-line around.
He’s almost a top-six lock and his dual-position status will allow for valuable ruck cover.
And not just for when one of your ruckmen is injured or suspended.
If a mid-price gamble - Brayden Preuss for example - backfires, Marshall could make a slight restructure easier. There are far more options in the mid-range bracket in the forward line and you could take advantage of this while Marshall sits at R2 until you start to upgrade.
Anyway, Preuss isn’t going to fail – *crosses fingers* - but you get the point.
That’s really only a bonus, though, he could be picked on his scoring power alone.
In his breakout year of 2019, Marshall averaged 110 points per game, on the back of 14 KFC SuperCoach tons, six in excess of 120.
Then Paddy Ryder arrived at the Saints and Marshall posted scores of 92, 70 and 81 in the opening three games of last season alongside his new ruck partner.
Ryder missed the next two matches and Marshall posted back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons.
But that’s not the end of the story.
Marshall adjusted to the new ruck-forward role – one he played so well in the VFL before exploding onto the scene at the top level – and began assertting his dominance in a slightly different way.
On average, and with the stats adjusted per 100 minutes, Marshall recorded more marks, contested marks and goals than he did in 2019.
His hitout numbers were down but Marshall gained more territory than any other ruckman in the competition and only Nic Naitanui recorded more inside-50s per game.
In the final 10 home-and-away games of the year, the 25-year-old booted nine goals, took 19 contested marks and averaged 112 KFC SuperCoach points.
Ryder played in nine of them.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’ve built my forward line around him, you should too.
THE NEXT BEST
Josh Dunkley (WB) $560,200
If you’ve been following premium week, you will know where The Phantom stands on the arrival of Adam Treloar at the Bulldogs – scroll down if you haven’t.
Am I tipping Dunkley to spend more time forward again in 2020? Yes.
Does that mean we should expect a similar KFC SuperCoach average to last year – and not that of his career-best season of 2019? Yes.
But will that still make him a top-six forward? Yes.
Those three questions just about sum up Dunkley in KFC SuperCoach in 2021.
The Bulldogs gun started slow as a forward in 2019, before exploding when moved back into the midfield where he averaged 128 points per game from Round 7.
But, to absolutely no one’s surprise in the KFC SuperCoach community, Dunkley was moved around again last year – attending just 22 per cent of centre bounces from Round 10 onwards - and missed six matches with a nasty ankle injury.
He only passed the 100-point mark in just three of the final eight games of the year after returning, but never dropped below 87.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Unless, by trying to leave the club for more midfield time, Dunkley has convinced coach Luke Beveridge to keep him in the middle, there might be some inconsistency in his role – and, in turn, his scoring. But it’s unlikely he averages less than last season – 104 – making him a near top-six certainty.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) $611,900
I feel uneasy leaving Dangerfield out of the top section.
This is the guy who has averaged 120, 132, 136, 122, 115 and 114 in the past six seasons.
And he’s available as a forward, again.
But he’s battling an ongoing groin issue, which restricted him last season, and he’s even made multiple trips to Adelaide to see renowned groin/hip expert Steve Saunders.
“If you lose Round 1 … there are still 21 games to go,” Dangerfield said in late January when asked about his chances against the Crows in the season opener.
But if you’ve watched the Brownlow Medallist over the years, you will know it takes a lot to keep him out of a game for premiership points.
I expect him to play and spend most of his time inside-50 after he confirmed the injury ‘will definitely’ have an impact on his role early in the year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s not the forward role I’m concerned about – he could take 5 contested marks and boot six goals against the Crows in Round 1 – but it’s the combination of that, the injury and the very limited pre-season. Upgrade target?
Dustin Martin (Rich) $541,600
Speaking of, the three-time Norm Smith Medallist has been a slow starter in KFC SuperCoach in recent years.
Martin has passed the 100-point mark against the Blues in Round 1 in the past two seasons before going on to post six-round averages of 88 and 89.
But when you prime yourself perfectly to deliver consistent, dominant performances on the big stage, who really cares?
We, the KFC SuperCoach community do. Well, everyone except Al Paton.
With Hawthorn and the Swans up after Carlton this year, will it happen again? It’s hard to say.
Regardless, he’s still likely to average 100 minimum and that’s what he’s priced at.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re unlikely to lose by picking him but there’s plenty to be lost if you leave him out and he does start with a bang. I’d like to enjoy the season-opener on March 18.
Steele Sidebottom (Coll) $588,000
Sidebottom is an interesting KFC SuperCoach prospect in 2021.
As a midfielder, he sat on the level just below the top tier, meaning he was rarely discussed as a serious starting option in the classic format.
But as a dual-position forward this year, it’s a different story.
Or is it?
Thanks to two big scores – 150 and 141 – the classy Magpie averaged 109 points from nine matches in 2020, the second-highest season average of his career.
But his raw numbers were very similar – some even down – to 2019, a year he averaged just 94 points per game.
Adjusting the stats per 100 minutes, Sidebottom won more of the ball in total and in a contest, increasing his contested possessions per game by 1.3 and his clearances by 0.7.
However, the 30-year-old was involved in less scoring chains (4.8 – down from 5), gained less territory (269 – down from 365), took less marks (4.1 – down from 5.8), sent the ball inside-50 on fewer occasions (3.4 – down from 3.5) and missed more targets by foot (48% kicking efficiency – down from 64%).
While the contested side of the game has always been weighted more heavily in KFC SuperCoach – and his increased inside role with no Adam Treloar will keep him above that 94-point mark – the scaling in those big games, with shorter quarters, may have slightly skewed last year’s average.
It also must be noted, Sidebottom left the Collingwood hub last year for family reasons – it wasn’t an easy year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s still too good not to be a top-six forward but I think we can pick him up cheaper at some point.
On first look, the forward line in KFC SuperCoach this year looks stacked.
Patrick Dangerfield, Rowan Marshall and Josh Dunkley return to the pool, while Steele Sidebottom adds another high-end premium option to the forward mix.
But, really, there are only 10 players priced at more than $475k – there are 25 in defence.
For this analysis, the price bracket has been extended to $460k.
But what does it all mean for KFC SuperCoaches?
Let’s find out.
THE LOCKS
Rowan Marshall (StK) $557,200, Ruck
There’s a strong case to make Marshall your first picked – and the player to build your forward-line around.
He’s almost a top-six lock and his dual-position status will allow for valuable ruck cover.
And not just for when one of your ruckmen is injured or suspended.
If a mid-price gamble - Brayden Preuss for example - backfires, Marshall could make a slight restructure easier. There are far more options in the mid-range bracket in the forward line and you could take advantage of this while Marshall sits at R2 until you start to upgrade.
Anyway, Preuss isn’t going to fail – *crosses fingers* - but you get the point.
That’s really only a bonus, though, he could be picked on his scoring power alone.
In his breakout year of 2019, Marshall averaged 110 points per game, on the back of 14 KFC SuperCoach tons, six in excess of 120.
Then Paddy Ryder arrived at the Saints and Marshall posted scores of 92, 70 and 81 in the opening three games of last season alongside his new ruck partner.
Ryder missed the next two matches and Marshall posted back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons.
But that’s not the end of the story.
Marshall adjusted to the new ruck-forward role – one he played so well in the VFL before exploding onto the scene at the top level – and began assertting his dominance in a slightly different way.
On average, and with the stats adjusted per 100 minutes, Marshall recorded more marks, contested marks and goals than he did in 2019.
His hitout numbers were down but Marshall gained more territory than any other ruckman in the competition and only Nic Naitanui recorded more inside-50s per game.
In the final 10 home-and-away games of the year, the 25-year-old booted nine goals, took 19 contested marks and averaged 112 KFC SuperCoach points.
Ryder played in nine of them.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’ve built my forward line around him, you should too.
THE NEXT BEST
Josh Dunkley (WB) $560,200
If you’ve been following premium week, you will know where The Phantom stands on the arrival of Adam Treloar at the Bulldogs – scroll down if you haven’t.
Am I tipping Dunkley to spend more time forward again in 2020? Yes.
Does that mean we should expect a similar KFC SuperCoach average to last year – and not that of his career-best season of 2019? Yes.
But will that still make him a top-six forward? Yes.
Those three questions just about sum up Dunkley in KFC SuperCoach in 2021.
The Bulldogs gun started slow as a forward in 2019, before exploding when moved back into the midfield where he averaged 128 points per game from Round 7.
But, to absolutely no one’s surprise in the KFC SuperCoach community, Dunkley was moved around again last year – attending just 22 per cent of centre bounces from Round 10 onwards - and missed six matches with a nasty ankle injury.
He only passed the 100-point mark in just three of the final eight games of the year after returning, but never dropped below 87.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Unless, by trying to leave the club for more midfield time, Dunkley has convinced coach Luke Beveridge to keep him in the middle, there might be some inconsistency in his role – and, in turn, his scoring. But it’s unlikely he averages less than last season – 104 – making him a near top-six certainty.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) $611,900
I feel uneasy leaving Dangerfield out of the top section.
This is the guy who has averaged 120, 132, 136, 122, 115 and 114 in the past six seasons.
And he’s available as a forward, again.
But he’s battling an ongoing groin issue, which restricted him last season, and he’s even made multiple trips to Adelaide to see renowned groin/hip expert Steve Saunders.
“If you lose Round 1 … there are still 21 games to go,” Dangerfield said in late January when asked about his chances against the Crows in the season opener.
But if you’ve watched the Brownlow Medallist over the years, you will know it takes a lot to keep him out of a game for premiership points.
I expect him to play and spend most of his time inside-50 after he confirmed the injury ‘will definitely’ have an impact on his role early in the year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s not the forward role I’m concerned about – he could take 5 contested marks and boot six goals against the Crows in Round 1 – but it’s the combination of that, the injury and the very limited pre-season. Upgrade target?
Dustin Martin (Rich) $541,600
Speaking of, the three-time Norm Smith Medallist has been a slow starter in KFC SuperCoach in recent years.
Martin has passed the 100-point mark against the Blues in Round 1 in the past two seasons before going on to post six-round averages of 88 and 89.
But when you prime yourself perfectly to deliver consistent, dominant performances on the big stage, who really cares?
We, the KFC SuperCoach community do. Well, everyone except Al Paton.
With Hawthorn and the Swans up after Carlton this year, will it happen again? It’s hard to say.
Regardless, he’s still likely to average 100 minimum and that’s what he’s priced at.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re unlikely to lose by picking him but there’s plenty to be lost if you leave him out and he does start with a bang. I’d like to enjoy the season-opener on March 18.
Steele Sidebottom (Coll) $588,000
Sidebottom is an interesting KFC SuperCoach prospect in 2021.
As a midfielder, he sat on the level just below the top tier, meaning he was rarely discussed as a serious starting option in the classic format.
But as a dual-position forward this year, it’s a different story.
Or is it?
Thanks to two big scores – 150 and 141 – the classy Magpie averaged 109 points from nine matches in 2020, the second-highest season average of his career.
But his raw numbers were very similar – some even down – to 2019, a year he averaged just 94 points per game.
Adjusting the stats per 100 minutes, Sidebottom won more of the ball in total and in a contest, increasing his contested possessions per game by 1.3 and his clearances by 0.7.
However, the 30-year-old was involved in less scoring chains (4.8 – down from 5), gained less territory (269 – down from 365), took less marks (4.1 – down from 5.8), sent the ball inside-50 on fewer occasions (3.4 – down from 3.5) and missed more targets by foot (48% kicking efficiency – down from 64%).
While the contested side of the game has always been weighted more heavily in KFC SuperCoach – and his increased inside role with no Adam Treloar will keep him above that 94-point mark – the scaling in those big games, with shorter quarters, may have slightly skewed last year’s average.
It also must be noted, Sidebottom left the Collingwood hub last year for family reasons – it wasn’t an easy year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s still too good not to be a top-six forward but I think we can pick him up cheaper at some point.
CAN WE TRUST HIM?
Michael Walters (Freo) $531,100
Michael Walters position breakdown
Time in Position
Defence - Midfield - Forward
2020: 0% - 43% - 57%
2019: 0% - 59% - 41%
2018: 2% - 40% - 58%
2017: 1% - 37% - 62%
2016: 0% - 23% - 77%
2020 Breakdown
Midfield - Forward
R1-8: 68% - 32%
R12-17: 8% - 92%
KFC SuperCoach scores
R1-8: 110, 148, 109, 113, 92, 107, 101, 115
R12-17: 60, 93, 82, 49, 90, 115, Dnp
No words needed here.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Don’t do it to yourself. Not to start with anyway.
NEXT GEN
Zak Butters (Port) $471,400
As a forward, the 20-year-old rated elite for effective disposals, kicking efficiency, intercept marks, contested possessions, groundball-gets, intercept possessions, score involvements and goal assists in just his second year in the competition.
He played majority of the year forward, but the ratings highlight just how much of an impact he had when pushing up through the midfield.
Butters increased his average from 60 to 87 after posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and four other scores of 80 or more from his 15 games.
And the Power only want Butters and fellow young star Connor Rozee to spend more time in the midfield going forward – especially if recruit Orazio Fantasia stays fit.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Would be a big call to start at the price but I am tipping another spike for Butters this year. Bigger than Rozee’s? Probably not.
Shai Bolton (Rich) $462,400
The skillful Tiger was electric in his midfield stint during 2019.
Bolton, after spending most of the first 17 games of his career in the forward line, was pushed into the midfield in Round 16 and averaged 27 disposals, eight contested possessions, four clearances and 117 KFC SuperCoach points, while also booting three goals, in the next two matches.
But he returned to his role as a small-forward for the finals and was dropped after the Tigers loss to the Saints in Round 4 last year.
If there was a silver lining to Dion Prestia’s injury last year, however, it was Bolton’s return to the side – and the midfield – in Round 6.
From that point, the 22-year-old ranked second at the Tigers for score involvements, third for contested possessions and fifth for disposals. He finished with five KFC SuperCoach tons in the minor round and posted a career-high 135 points, on the back of 16 disposals, nine contested possessions and seven tackles, in the grand final win over the Cats.
The Phantom’s Verdict: In the top-six mix if he can find consistency through the midfield.
MIDFIELDERS ($500k+)
THE LOCKS
Lachie Neale (Bris) $721,800
It’s a lot to pay – and, yes, he’s probably slightly overpriced – but do you really want to start without the Brownlow Medallist?
Neale posted 13 scores of 130 or more – seven of them in excess of 150 – to finish with a career-best average of 134. Only Max Gawn averaged more KFC SuperCoach points per game.
With shortened quarters, his percentage of time-on-ground was up by almost four per cent in 2020 and, as a result of his dominance through the midfield, Neale was one to benefit from the slightly adjusted scaling, which was mostly done at the top-end.
It would be a big call to overlook Lachie Neale despite the price. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos
Without going into the complicated detail – you can read more here though – I’m not betting on another 134-point average.
But he’ll go close, and I’m tipping he will be the $650k+ midfielder who goes closest to maintaining his huge price tag – as well as the gap to the next-best scorer.
Neale tallied more disposals, contested possessions, effective disposals and KFC SuperCoach points than any other player last year and he passed that 134-point mark on eight occasions in 2019.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The answer to the question in the first line is no.
NEXT-BEST
Clayton Oliver (Melb), $656,700
Oliver’s staggering start to his career continued last year. After recording averages of 70, 111, 115 and 109 in his first four seasons, the contested-ball star went to another level in 2020.
He passed the 120-point mark for the first time, on the back of 13 scores of 100 or more and the first KFC SuperCoach double ton of his career.
Sure, his huge scores of 177 and 205 may have been scaled up slightly more than usual last season, but Oliver was more direct.
Adjusting his stats per 100 minutes, Oliver, on average, gained an extra 59 metres per game than in 2019 and recorded almost two extra kicks in each match.
He’s also proven himself as one of the most-durable players in the game, playing 89 consecutive games since the end of his debut season.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s in at the moment, but I’m starting to come around to the idea there may be better value.
Michael Walters (Freo) $531,100
Michael Walters position breakdown
Time in Position
Defence - Midfield - Forward
2020: 0% - 43% - 57%
2019: 0% - 59% - 41%
2018: 2% - 40% - 58%
2017: 1% - 37% - 62%
2016: 0% - 23% - 77%
Midfield - Forward
R1-8: 68% - 32%
R12-17: 8% - 92%
KFC SuperCoach scores
R1-8: 110, 148, 109, 113, 92, 107, 101, 115
R12-17: 60, 93, 82, 49, 90, 115, Dnp
No words needed here.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Don’t do it to yourself. Not to start with anyway.
NEXT GEN
Zak Butters (Port) $471,400
As a forward, the 20-year-old rated elite for effective disposals, kicking efficiency, intercept marks, contested possessions, groundball-gets, intercept possessions, score involvements and goal assists in just his second year in the competition.
He played majority of the year forward, but the ratings highlight just how much of an impact he had when pushing up through the midfield.
Butters increased his average from 60 to 87 after posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and four other scores of 80 or more from his 15 games.
And the Power only want Butters and fellow young star Connor Rozee to spend more time in the midfield going forward – especially if recruit Orazio Fantasia stays fit.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Would be a big call to start at the price but I am tipping another spike for Butters this year. Bigger than Rozee’s? Probably not.
Shai Bolton (Rich) $462,400
The skillful Tiger was electric in his midfield stint during 2019.
Bolton, after spending most of the first 17 games of his career in the forward line, was pushed into the midfield in Round 16 and averaged 27 disposals, eight contested possessions, four clearances and 117 KFC SuperCoach points, while also booting three goals, in the next two matches.
But he returned to his role as a small-forward for the finals and was dropped after the Tigers loss to the Saints in Round 4 last year.
If there was a silver lining to Dion Prestia’s injury last year, however, it was Bolton’s return to the side – and the midfield – in Round 6.
From that point, the 22-year-old ranked second at the Tigers for score involvements, third for contested possessions and fifth for disposals. He finished with five KFC SuperCoach tons in the minor round and posted a career-high 135 points, on the back of 16 disposals, nine contested possessions and seven tackles, in the grand final win over the Cats.
The Phantom’s Verdict: In the top-six mix if he can find consistency through the midfield.
MIDFIELDERS ($500k+)
THE LOCKS
Lachie Neale (Bris) $721,800
It’s a lot to pay – and, yes, he’s probably slightly overpriced – but do you really want to start without the Brownlow Medallist?
Neale posted 13 scores of 130 or more – seven of them in excess of 150 – to finish with a career-best average of 134. Only Max Gawn averaged more KFC SuperCoach points per game.
With shortened quarters, his percentage of time-on-ground was up by almost four per cent in 2020 and, as a result of his dominance through the midfield, Neale was one to benefit from the slightly adjusted scaling, which was mostly done at the top-end.
It would be a big call to overlook Lachie Neale despite the price. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos
Without going into the complicated detail – you can read more here though – I’m not betting on another 134-point average.
But he’ll go close, and I’m tipping he will be the $650k+ midfielder who goes closest to maintaining his huge price tag – as well as the gap to the next-best scorer.
Neale tallied more disposals, contested possessions, effective disposals and KFC SuperCoach points than any other player last year and he passed that 134-point mark on eight occasions in 2019.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The answer to the question in the first line is no.
NEXT-BEST
Clayton Oliver (Melb), $656,700
Oliver’s staggering start to his career continued last year. After recording averages of 70, 111, 115 and 109 in his first four seasons, the contested-ball star went to another level in 2020.
He passed the 120-point mark for the first time, on the back of 13 scores of 100 or more and the first KFC SuperCoach double ton of his career.
Sure, his huge scores of 177 and 205 may have been scaled up slightly more than usual last season, but Oliver was more direct.
Adjusting his stats per 100 minutes, Oliver, on average, gained an extra 59 metres per game than in 2019 and recorded almost two extra kicks in each match.
He’s also proven himself as one of the most-durable players in the game, playing 89 consecutive games since the end of his debut season.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s in at the moment, but I’m starting to come around to the idea there may be better value.
CAN THEY MAINTAIN IT?
Christian Petracca (Melb) $631,900
After a standout junior career as a midfielder, the KFC SuperCoach community waited - and waited – for Petracca’s breakout year. And, finally, after four years of failing to average more than 81 points, it happened.
And, to be fair, it was worth the wait.
A fitter, leaner Petracca took on a full-time midfield role in 2020 and thrived, averaging 23 disposals and 117 points per game, to finish the season as the seventh-ranked player in KFC SuperCoach.
The key to the strongly-built Demon’s rise was that he not only won more of the ball – at the contest and away from it – but he did so while mainting his influence forward-of-centre.
Petracca booted 15.14 off his own boot, played a direct-hand in 13 other majors – the ninth-most in the competition – and only Geelong forward Tom Hawkins was involved in more of his team’s scoring chains.
The Phantom’s Verdict: As good as those numbers are, and despite how unstoppable he looked at times last year, $631k is a lot to pay. An upgrade target for mine.
THE BULLDOGS
Jack Macrae ($650,100), Marcus Bontempelli ($623,900) and Adam Treloar ($587,600)
One of the biggest questions of the KFC SuperCoach pre-season is how the Bulldogs midfield operates with the inclusion of Treloar.
All are terrific scorers in their own right and the crowded Bulldogs engine-room has scored well individually in the past, too.
In 2019, Macrae, Bontempelli and Josh Dunkley finished as the second, fifth and sixth-ranked KFC SuperCoach scorers in the game.
But there were signs last year – Macrae out on a wing to start, Dunkley back inside-50 – that point to potential trouble in 2021.
Sure, despite the concern shorter quarters would affect the influence of accumulators, Macrae (121) was influential and Bontempelli (116) starred.
But the addition of Treloar is different.
Unlike Dunkley, he can’t play forward. He’s a jet but, arguably, he’s the least versatile of his new midfield teammates.
Add to that Tom Liberatore’s return to form, the rise of Bailey Smith and the magnet man himself, coach Luke Beveridge, and KFC SuperCoaches could very well have a problem.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Bontempelli is the one I’m concerned most about, given his effectiveness as a forward. Macrae not as much, given, even if he is moved around to some degree, he’s still likely to play more inside than outside. But Treloar is the value selection here – I’m tipping the former Magpie to go close to No. 1 at his new club, given the likelihood he could be the most-settled position-wise.
SLEEPERS
Matt Crouch (Adel) $594,700
In 2017, Crouch recorded more disposals than any other player in the competition, earning himself an All-Australian jacket for the first time, as well as his first Crows’ Club Champion award, in a year when Adelaide made the grand final.
Crouch averaged 111 SuperCoach points per match to finish the season as the sixth-ranked player in the game.
He was on the radar of every KFC SuperCoach.
But then the Crows lost their way and, to some degree, so did Crouch.
He was still winning the ball but he became less influential with it and averaged 102 and 104 points per game in the next two seasons respectively.
Then, after averaging 88 points in the opening three rounds of 2020, he was dropped by new coach Matthew Nicks.
He was well and truly off the radar.
And, given he’s only in 2 per cent of teams at the moment, he hasn’t found his way back on it.
That’s despite posting a KFC SuperCoach ton in 10 of the final 13 matches of the year after returning to the side.
And, more impressively, averaging 129 points from Round 12 onwards, when he really started to have an impact with his possession, following some external criticsm.
Only Max Gawn scored more points in the final month of the season.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Starting to tempt me.
Taylor Adams (Coll) $588,800
This one is simple. In the eight games Adams played alongside Treloar last season, he averaged 102 KFC SuperCoach points per game. In the nine games without his former teammate, he averaged 116.
It was a similar story in 2019 with Adams increasing his average from 86 to 108 without Treloar in the side.
Now he’s gone, Adams assumes the extra midfield responsibility on a full-time basis.
And the tough midfielder, who averaged 28 disposals, 13 contested possesions, seven tackles, six clearances and six score involvements per 100 minutes, is coming off the best KFC SuperCoach season of his career, finishing 2020 with a 109-point average.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Given the questions marks on a number of $600k+ midfielders, like Crouch, Adams’ numbers are well and truly making the case for him. And only 10.4 per of KFC SuperCoaches are listening at the moment.
BOUNCE BACK
Patrick Cripps (Carl) $523,700
“You’re going to see him back to his powerful self and hopefully dominating clearances.”
That’s what Carlton assistant coach Brent Stanton said about the Blues co-captain in January, after Cripps added a few kilos over summer in a bid to return to the body shape which saw him star in the previous two seasons.
Between 2018 and 2019, Cripps posted a KFC SuperCoach ton in 29 of his 42 games – 11 of them in excess of 140.
After a career-best average of 119 in 2018, Cripps started the following year price at $648k.
This year, after trimming down in 2020 and struggling with form and injury on his way to a 97-point average, the 25-year-old is available for $125k less than the 2018 figure.
Now that’s value.
He had a shoulder reconstruction over summer but he’s ‘ahead of schedule’ according to Stanton.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I think I’ve just talked myself into him.
INJURY CONCERN
Josh Kelly (GWS $615,600), Nat Fyfe (Freo $608,300) and Tom Mitchell (Haw $610,100)
If you could guarantee all three would play every game for the year in the midfield, they would be just about the first three players you pick.
But history – and current injury – suggests that is unlikely to happen.
Kelly has averaged 114 or more in each of the past four seasons but in the past three he’s missed 18 home-and-away matches.
Fyfe has averaged 113 or more in the past three years and boasts three 120-point season averages across his career. But the Dockers star has missed 35 games through injury and suspension since 2015. And the rapid rise of the Fremantle midfield’s next generation saw him spend plenty of time inside-50 in 2020.
Mitchell has a different concern. The Brownlow Medallist played every last year after missing 12 months with a broken leg and averaged 113 points per game. A fit-and-firing Mitchell improves on that mark with the return of standard quarters.
But after undergoing a shoulder reconstruction, he’s yet to resume full training and is an unlikely starter for the Hawks’ AAMI Series fixture.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I love them all, but I’m just not sure I can justify starting any of them at this point.
Christian Petracca (Melb) $631,900
After a standout junior career as a midfielder, the KFC SuperCoach community waited - and waited – for Petracca’s breakout year. And, finally, after four years of failing to average more than 81 points, it happened.
And, to be fair, it was worth the wait.
A fitter, leaner Petracca took on a full-time midfield role in 2020 and thrived, averaging 23 disposals and 117 points per game, to finish the season as the seventh-ranked player in KFC SuperCoach.
The key to the strongly-built Demon’s rise was that he not only won more of the ball – at the contest and away from it – but he did so while mainting his influence forward-of-centre.
Petracca booted 15.14 off his own boot, played a direct-hand in 13 other majors – the ninth-most in the competition – and only Geelong forward Tom Hawkins was involved in more of his team’s scoring chains.
The Phantom’s Verdict: As good as those numbers are, and despite how unstoppable he looked at times last year, $631k is a lot to pay. An upgrade target for mine.
THE BULLDOGS
Jack Macrae ($650,100), Marcus Bontempelli ($623,900) and Adam Treloar ($587,600)
One of the biggest questions of the KFC SuperCoach pre-season is how the Bulldogs midfield operates with the inclusion of Treloar.
All are terrific scorers in their own right and the crowded Bulldogs engine-room has scored well individually in the past, too.
In 2019, Macrae, Bontempelli and Josh Dunkley finished as the second, fifth and sixth-ranked KFC SuperCoach scorers in the game.
But there were signs last year – Macrae out on a wing to start, Dunkley back inside-50 – that point to potential trouble in 2021.
Sure, despite the concern shorter quarters would affect the influence of accumulators, Macrae (121) was influential and Bontempelli (116) starred.
But the addition of Treloar is different.
Unlike Dunkley, he can’t play forward. He’s a jet but, arguably, he’s the least versatile of his new midfield teammates.
Add to that Tom Liberatore’s return to form, the rise of Bailey Smith and the magnet man himself, coach Luke Beveridge, and KFC SuperCoaches could very well have a problem.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Bontempelli is the one I’m concerned most about, given his effectiveness as a forward. Macrae not as much, given, even if he is moved around to some degree, he’s still likely to play more inside than outside. But Treloar is the value selection here – I’m tipping the former Magpie to go close to No. 1 at his new club, given the likelihood he could be the most-settled position-wise.
SLEEPERS
Matt Crouch (Adel) $594,700
In 2017, Crouch recorded more disposals than any other player in the competition, earning himself an All-Australian jacket for the first time, as well as his first Crows’ Club Champion award, in a year when Adelaide made the grand final.
Crouch averaged 111 SuperCoach points per match to finish the season as the sixth-ranked player in the game.
He was on the radar of every KFC SuperCoach.
But then the Crows lost their way and, to some degree, so did Crouch.
He was still winning the ball but he became less influential with it and averaged 102 and 104 points per game in the next two seasons respectively.
Then, after averaging 88 points in the opening three rounds of 2020, he was dropped by new coach Matthew Nicks.
He was well and truly off the radar.
And, given he’s only in 2 per cent of teams at the moment, he hasn’t found his way back on it.
That’s despite posting a KFC SuperCoach ton in 10 of the final 13 matches of the year after returning to the side.
And, more impressively, averaging 129 points from Round 12 onwards, when he really started to have an impact with his possession, following some external criticsm.
Only Max Gawn scored more points in the final month of the season.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Starting to tempt me.
Taylor Adams (Coll) $588,800
This one is simple. In the eight games Adams played alongside Treloar last season, he averaged 102 KFC SuperCoach points per game. In the nine games without his former teammate, he averaged 116.
It was a similar story in 2019 with Adams increasing his average from 86 to 108 without Treloar in the side.
Now he’s gone, Adams assumes the extra midfield responsibility on a full-time basis.
And the tough midfielder, who averaged 28 disposals, 13 contested possesions, seven tackles, six clearances and six score involvements per 100 minutes, is coming off the best KFC SuperCoach season of his career, finishing 2020 with a 109-point average.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Given the questions marks on a number of $600k+ midfielders, like Crouch, Adams’ numbers are well and truly making the case for him. And only 10.4 per of KFC SuperCoaches are listening at the moment.
BOUNCE BACK
Patrick Cripps (Carl) $523,700
“You’re going to see him back to his powerful self and hopefully dominating clearances.”
That’s what Carlton assistant coach Brent Stanton said about the Blues co-captain in January, after Cripps added a few kilos over summer in a bid to return to the body shape which saw him star in the previous two seasons.
Between 2018 and 2019, Cripps posted a KFC SuperCoach ton in 29 of his 42 games – 11 of them in excess of 140.
After a career-best average of 119 in 2018, Cripps started the following year price at $648k.
This year, after trimming down in 2020 and struggling with form and injury on his way to a 97-point average, the 25-year-old is available for $125k less than the 2018 figure.
Now that’s value.
He had a shoulder reconstruction over summer but he’s ‘ahead of schedule’ according to Stanton.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I think I’ve just talked myself into him.
INJURY CONCERN
Josh Kelly (GWS $615,600), Nat Fyfe (Freo $608,300) and Tom Mitchell (Haw $610,100)
If you could guarantee all three would play every game for the year in the midfield, they would be just about the first three players you pick.
But history – and current injury – suggests that is unlikely to happen.
Kelly has averaged 114 or more in each of the past four seasons but in the past three he’s missed 18 home-and-away matches.
Fyfe has averaged 113 or more in the past three years and boasts three 120-point season averages across his career. But the Dockers star has missed 35 games through injury and suspension since 2015. And the rapid rise of the Fremantle midfield’s next generation saw him spend plenty of time inside-50 in 2020.
Mitchell has a different concern. The Brownlow Medallist played every last year after missing 12 months with a broken leg and averaged 113 points per game. A fit-and-firing Mitchell improves on that mark with the return of standard quarters.
But after undergoing a shoulder reconstruction, he’s yet to resume full training and is an unlikely starter for the Hawks’ AAMI Series fixture.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I love them all, but I’m just not sure I can justify starting any of them at this point.
NEXT GEN
Sam Walsh (Carl) $543,300
Walsh exploded onto the scene in his debut season of 2019, posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and finishing with an average of 87.
And just when it looked like the young gun had succumbed to the dreaded second-year Blues, following his 78-point average in the first seven rounds, he exploded again.
Walsh’s inside game developed dramatically in the second-half of the season, on the back of more exposure in the role, and he averaged 114 points in his final 11 matches.
Two of his final three matches of the year highlighted his rapidly improving all-round game.
In Round 16 against the Swans, Walsh tallied 25 disposals – 21 of them effective - 19 uncontested possessions, 10 score involvements, nine marks and six inside-50s.
Then in the final game of the year against the Lions in Round 18, Walsh stepped up on the inside, finishing with career highs in contested possessions (21) and groundball-gets (18), to go with 31 disposals and six clearances.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He ended up adding 11 points to his KFC SuperCoach average in his second season and a similar increase – if not bigger – is on the cards in 2021.
Hugh McCluggage (Bris) $545,500
The sublimely-skilled Brisbane young gun threatened to take over KFC SuperCoach in 2020.
After a moderate opening two games, McCluggage went bang, posting scores of 155, 141 and 116.
But then he struggled for consistency, passing the 100-point mark in just six of his next 12 matches.
It will happen, though.
In 12 TAC Cup games during his draft year, McCluggage was dominant through the midfield and forward of centre, averaging 28 disposals and two goals — a combination of numbers Champion Data had never seen at any level during their time covering the game prior to this.
Averages of 13 contested possessions, six clearances and nine score involvements per game made McCluggage the complete midfielder.
And it’s all likely to come together at the next level very soon.
If it wasn’t for his uncharacteristically bad conversion in front of goal – 8.21 – last year, McCluggage would’ve gone close to replicating his impressive 23-disposal, 1-goal per game season of 2019.
But what did improve was his contested possession rate which jumped from 37 to 40 per cent in 2020, after increasing from 35 the previous year.
The trend mirrors his KFC SuperCoach average, too, with McCluggage going from 55 to 77 in his sop****re year before jumping to 94 in 2019 and 101 last season.
The Phantom’s Verdict:Another jump isn’t all that far away.
AVOID
Dylan Shiel (Ess) $548,000
The Essendon midfielder’s past seven season averages are 95, 103, 99, 98, 90, 97, 102. Solid numbers. But not true KFC SuperCoach premium numbers. And he’s had more than enough time to convince us otherwise.
DEFENDERS
THE LOCKS
Jake Lloyd (Syd) $656,400
The Sydney star has posted a KFC SuperCoach ton in 45 of his past 54 home-and-away matches.
That’s it. That’s the description.
Well, it could be. But there’s more. Lloyd finished with the equal-fourth-highest KFC SuperCoach average in the competition last year. He had more kicks than any other player in the minor round and ranked first in the competition for effective disposals, fourth for rebound 50s and fifth for metres-gained.
Rankings helped by the fact the skillful right-footer played on with 90 of his 94 kick-ins last. And with the new rule forcing the player on the mark to stand a further five metres back in 2021, that 96 per cent mark could be in trouble.
The only question mark is around his $656k price-tag. Is he overpriced?
There’s a case, sure, given the scores may even out across the 44 players on the ground a little with the return of standard quarters (you can find the full analysis on this here).
In short, highlighting the increased scaling at the top-end, there were 182 140+ scores in KFC SuperCoach last year – 16 more than in 2019 despite a total of 45 less games being played.
Lloyd had four of them, after just one the previous season, so another 122-point average may be a stretch.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re picking him for his consistent three-figure scores and, arguably, the best KFC SuperCoach role in the competition. Not for the value – you can do that elsewhere. Said he was a “little bit injured” last week but, hey, my foot would be hurting too if I had that many kicks. I wouldn’t worry just yet.
Rory Laird (Adel) $564,800
Your elsewhere could start here.
Laird is priced at an average of 105 – three points less than his career-best All-Australian year of 2018.
Great, right? That’s probably just his base line.
At the height of Adelaide’s struggles, the ball-winning defender moved into the midfield in Round 9 last year and starred, averaging 118 points per game in the run home. Laird had 37 disposals in Round 10 and 25 or more in each of his final five matches.
And, after leading the Crows for contested possessions, clearances and ground-ball gets from Round 10 – and with the departure of Brad Crouch - he’s likely to assume the same role in 2021.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Yep.
Sam Walsh (Carl) $543,300
Walsh exploded onto the scene in his debut season of 2019, posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and finishing with an average of 87.
And just when it looked like the young gun had succumbed to the dreaded second-year Blues, following his 78-point average in the first seven rounds, he exploded again.
Walsh’s inside game developed dramatically in the second-half of the season, on the back of more exposure in the role, and he averaged 114 points in his final 11 matches.
Two of his final three matches of the year highlighted his rapidly improving all-round game.
In Round 16 against the Swans, Walsh tallied 25 disposals – 21 of them effective - 19 uncontested possessions, 10 score involvements, nine marks and six inside-50s.
Then in the final game of the year against the Lions in Round 18, Walsh stepped up on the inside, finishing with career highs in contested possessions (21) and groundball-gets (18), to go with 31 disposals and six clearances.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He ended up adding 11 points to his KFC SuperCoach average in his second season and a similar increase – if not bigger – is on the cards in 2021.
Hugh McCluggage (Bris) $545,500
The sublimely-skilled Brisbane young gun threatened to take over KFC SuperCoach in 2020.
After a moderate opening two games, McCluggage went bang, posting scores of 155, 141 and 116.
But then he struggled for consistency, passing the 100-point mark in just six of his next 12 matches.
It will happen, though.
In 12 TAC Cup games during his draft year, McCluggage was dominant through the midfield and forward of centre, averaging 28 disposals and two goals — a combination of numbers Champion Data had never seen at any level during their time covering the game prior to this.
Averages of 13 contested possessions, six clearances and nine score involvements per game made McCluggage the complete midfielder.
And it’s all likely to come together at the next level very soon.
If it wasn’t for his uncharacteristically bad conversion in front of goal – 8.21 – last year, McCluggage would’ve gone close to replicating his impressive 23-disposal, 1-goal per game season of 2019.
But what did improve was his contested possession rate which jumped from 37 to 40 per cent in 2020, after increasing from 35 the previous year.
The trend mirrors his KFC SuperCoach average, too, with McCluggage going from 55 to 77 in his sop****re year before jumping to 94 in 2019 and 101 last season.
The Phantom’s Verdict:Another jump isn’t all that far away.
AVOID
Dylan Shiel (Ess) $548,000
The Essendon midfielder’s past seven season averages are 95, 103, 99, 98, 90, 97, 102. Solid numbers. But not true KFC SuperCoach premium numbers. And he’s had more than enough time to convince us otherwise.
DEFENDERS
THE LOCKS
Jake Lloyd (Syd) $656,400
The Sydney star has posted a KFC SuperCoach ton in 45 of his past 54 home-and-away matches.
That’s it. That’s the description.
Well, it could be. But there’s more. Lloyd finished with the equal-fourth-highest KFC SuperCoach average in the competition last year. He had more kicks than any other player in the minor round and ranked first in the competition for effective disposals, fourth for rebound 50s and fifth for metres-gained.
Rankings helped by the fact the skillful right-footer played on with 90 of his 94 kick-ins last. And with the new rule forcing the player on the mark to stand a further five metres back in 2021, that 96 per cent mark could be in trouble.
The only question mark is around his $656k price-tag. Is he overpriced?
There’s a case, sure, given the scores may even out across the 44 players on the ground a little with the return of standard quarters (you can find the full analysis on this here).
In short, highlighting the increased scaling at the top-end, there were 182 140+ scores in KFC SuperCoach last year – 16 more than in 2019 despite a total of 45 less games being played.
Lloyd had four of them, after just one the previous season, so another 122-point average may be a stretch.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re picking him for his consistent three-figure scores and, arguably, the best KFC SuperCoach role in the competition. Not for the value – you can do that elsewhere. Said he was a “little bit injured” last week but, hey, my foot would be hurting too if I had that many kicks. I wouldn’t worry just yet.
Rory Laird (Adel) $564,800
Your elsewhere could start here.
Laird is priced at an average of 105 – three points less than his career-best All-Australian year of 2018.
Great, right? That’s probably just his base line.
At the height of Adelaide’s struggles, the ball-winning defender moved into the midfield in Round 9 last year and starred, averaging 118 points per game in the run home. Laird had 37 disposals in Round 10 and 25 or more in each of his final five matches.
And, after leading the Crows for contested possessions, clearances and ground-ball gets from Round 10 – and with the departure of Brad Crouch - he’s likely to assume the same role in 2021.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Yep.
THE NEXT BEST
Lachie Whitfield (GWS) $561,600
Whitfield is unlucky to miss out in the section above – just like he was in Round 3 last season.
The skillful Giant copped a heavy knock in the first quarter against the Bulldogs and was taken out the game in the second term.
He finished with eight KFC SuperCoach points to his name.
And, obviously, that score counted towards his overall average of 104.
Take out the injury-affected performance and Whitfield’s average was 110 – aligning with his career-best 111-point mark from the previous year.
Since Round 9, 2018, Whitfield has scored 85 KFC SuperCoach points or more in 39 of his 44 non-injury affected matches, with 29 KFC SuperCoach tons.
Some will raise the issue of his durability but apart from the four games he missed with a broken collarbone in 2019 – another impact injury – Whitfield has ran out in all-but three games for the Giants since Round 20, 2016.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He was a great pick as a forward last season and is probably even a better one as a defender in 2021.
Luke Ryan (Freo) $576,500
After pushing his average from 90 to 96 in an impressive third year in the competition, Ryan exploded in 2020, posting 13 KFC SuperCoach tons on his way to finishing with the second-highest average of all defenders to have played five or more games.
There’s no shame finishing runner-up to Jake Lloyd.
But if you look past his slow start, which included three scores of less than 80, Ryan averaged 116 from Round 4 onwards and passed the 100-point mark in 12 of his final 13 games.
In his fourth year in the competition – after being drafted from the VFL as 20-year-old in 2016 – Ryan was the No. 1 ranked player for intercepts and rebound-50s.
And, like Lloyd, the 186cm Ryan is a beneficiary of the recent play-on rule, running out of the square, adding to his kick tally, with 74 of 89 kick-ins last year.
He ranked No. 3 in the AFL for kicks per game as a result.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Huge 2020, and I’m tipping him to finish in the top-six, but I think he’s one who will lose a few points as the scores – and scaling – even out.
Tom Stewart (Geel) $538,000
He’s not getting a lot of love from the KFC SuperCoach community so far this pre-season, featuring in just 9.7 per cent of teams as of February 1.
But there is, indeed, plenty to love.
Stewart posted seven consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons to finish the home-and-away season, before scoring 151, 94 and 101 in the Cats’ last three finals.
In fact, if you take out the injury-affected 18-point score in Round 4, Stewart averaged 106 points per game, again, showing there is plenty of value in his $538k price-tag.
The Geelong star took more marks than any other player in the competition and rated elite for disposals, rebound 50s, effective kicks, effective disposals, metres gained and score launches for a defender.
He’s proven his consistency, too, scoring 84 points or more in 30 of his 36 matches in the past two home-and-away seasons.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You have to scroll a little find him, but that definitely shouldn’t put you off.
CAN THEY MAINTAIN IT?
Luke McDonald (NM) $512,900
In 2019, McDonald finished the year in defence, averaging just 60 KFC SuperCoach points per game and failing to win more than 20 disposals in any of his 13 matches.
Fast forward 12 months and, following a brief stint in a defensive midfield role, McDonald was crowned North’s best-and-fairest after a 10-game stretch in the run home which saw him average 25 disposals and 116 KFC SuperCoach points across half-back.
He not only became one of the club’s best ball-winners, but the competition’s.
The 26-year-old confirmed recently that he would settle in defence in 2021 and declared he’s only getting started.
“I’m not resting on my laurels and I really want to keep improving and try to be one of the best defenders in the competition, to be honest,” McDonald told the club’s website.
But, given his previous scoring history – averages of 67, 84, 64, 53 and 66 in his first five seasons in the game – if I had to pick one player to fit in this category in any position, it would be McDonald.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Not only did he find the ball at will, McDonald hit the target with 159 of his 196 disposals from Round 10 onwards. But I’ve just got too many questions. Do North become more direct under David Noble? Do opposition sides let McDonald run around by himself if the Roos improve?
Jordan Ridley (Ess) $547,700
Speaking of hitting targets, the numbers say the reigning Bombers best-and-fairest is the best ball-user in the competition.
Of all players to average 16 disposals or more, Ridley’s efficiency of 87.5 per cent is No. 1.
Ridley averaged 18 per game and 266 of his 304 total disposals were effective.
And, while he may have only played nine games in his first three seasons on the list, the right-footer hit the target with 113 of the first 130 disposals of his career.
Ridley also rated elite for intercept marks, contested marks and spoils for a defender, proving he has multiple avenues of scoring.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Ridley’s 2020 was the definition of breakout and his efficiency is likely to keep him in the top-six mix again in 2021.
Jeremy Howe (Coll, $517,900)
The intercept star is another who fits right under this header. Howe averaged 120 points in the opening month of 2020, before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury.
The big discount as a result makes his 2021 price tag look very appealing.
And it is. But I’m still not convinced.
Given the expected adjustment in scaling and Howe’s modified pre-season to-date, it appears too small a sample size for the 30-year-old, who had 27 intecepts across the first four rounds.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s a wait-and-see on this one for me.
THE SLEEPERS
Sam Docherty (Carl) $496,000
Remember this guy?
Only 6.6 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches seem to at the moment – at least in a good way, anyway.
He’s the guy who averaged 109 and 114 in consecutive seasons before his horror injury run.
In those two years, Docherty posted a SuperCoach ton in 33 of the Blues’ 44 matches.
He struggled for consistency last year, finishing with a 92-point average, but still managed to pass the 100-point mark on five occasions – all of them in excess of 117.
I think we should just be concentrating on the fact he played all but one game in 2020 after previously not playing since Round 23, 2017.
Docherty is recovering from off-season ankle surgery but is ahead of schedule according to the Blues.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The introduction of Adam Saad and the return of Nic Newman will be interesting, but I’m starting to talk myself into it.
Steven May (Melb) $507,900
This is how the Melbourne defender finished 2020: 115, 110, 149, 102, 58, 122 and 123.
And it must be noted, May was switched forward against the Dockers in Round 16, resulted in the sub-60 performance.
That’s serious scoring.
The former Sun took 91 kick-ins last year – only Lloyd took more – and he played on with 82 of them. As a result, May rated elite for kicks, effective kicks, disposals, effective disposals and metres gained as a defender.
He barely received a mention in KFC SuperCoach prior to his standout finish to last year, but he did average 82 or more in each of his final three seasons at Gold Coast.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m not saying I will pick him but, on form, and given his effectiveness by foot – something not all that common at the Demons – he should be in more than 0.9 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams.
AVOID
Shannon Hurn (WC) $477,800
He still posted two big scores – 138 and 152 – last year, but the next gen of KFC SuperCoach defenders have well and truly gone past him.
Lachie Whitfield (GWS) $561,600
Whitfield is unlucky to miss out in the section above – just like he was in Round 3 last season.
The skillful Giant copped a heavy knock in the first quarter against the Bulldogs and was taken out the game in the second term.
He finished with eight KFC SuperCoach points to his name.
And, obviously, that score counted towards his overall average of 104.
Take out the injury-affected performance and Whitfield’s average was 110 – aligning with his career-best 111-point mark from the previous year.
Since Round 9, 2018, Whitfield has scored 85 KFC SuperCoach points or more in 39 of his 44 non-injury affected matches, with 29 KFC SuperCoach tons.
Some will raise the issue of his durability but apart from the four games he missed with a broken collarbone in 2019 – another impact injury – Whitfield has ran out in all-but three games for the Giants since Round 20, 2016.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He was a great pick as a forward last season and is probably even a better one as a defender in 2021.
Luke Ryan (Freo) $576,500
After pushing his average from 90 to 96 in an impressive third year in the competition, Ryan exploded in 2020, posting 13 KFC SuperCoach tons on his way to finishing with the second-highest average of all defenders to have played five or more games.
There’s no shame finishing runner-up to Jake Lloyd.
But if you look past his slow start, which included three scores of less than 80, Ryan averaged 116 from Round 4 onwards and passed the 100-point mark in 12 of his final 13 games.
In his fourth year in the competition – after being drafted from the VFL as 20-year-old in 2016 – Ryan was the No. 1 ranked player for intercepts and rebound-50s.
And, like Lloyd, the 186cm Ryan is a beneficiary of the recent play-on rule, running out of the square, adding to his kick tally, with 74 of 89 kick-ins last year.
He ranked No. 3 in the AFL for kicks per game as a result.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Huge 2020, and I’m tipping him to finish in the top-six, but I think he’s one who will lose a few points as the scores – and scaling – even out.
Tom Stewart (Geel) $538,000
He’s not getting a lot of love from the KFC SuperCoach community so far this pre-season, featuring in just 9.7 per cent of teams as of February 1.
But there is, indeed, plenty to love.
Stewart posted seven consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons to finish the home-and-away season, before scoring 151, 94 and 101 in the Cats’ last three finals.
In fact, if you take out the injury-affected 18-point score in Round 4, Stewart averaged 106 points per game, again, showing there is plenty of value in his $538k price-tag.
The Geelong star took more marks than any other player in the competition and rated elite for disposals, rebound 50s, effective kicks, effective disposals, metres gained and score launches for a defender.
He’s proven his consistency, too, scoring 84 points or more in 30 of his 36 matches in the past two home-and-away seasons.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You have to scroll a little find him, but that definitely shouldn’t put you off.
CAN THEY MAINTAIN IT?
Luke McDonald (NM) $512,900
In 2019, McDonald finished the year in defence, averaging just 60 KFC SuperCoach points per game and failing to win more than 20 disposals in any of his 13 matches.
Fast forward 12 months and, following a brief stint in a defensive midfield role, McDonald was crowned North’s best-and-fairest after a 10-game stretch in the run home which saw him average 25 disposals and 116 KFC SuperCoach points across half-back.
He not only became one of the club’s best ball-winners, but the competition’s.
The 26-year-old confirmed recently that he would settle in defence in 2021 and declared he’s only getting started.
“I’m not resting on my laurels and I really want to keep improving and try to be one of the best defenders in the competition, to be honest,” McDonald told the club’s website.
But, given his previous scoring history – averages of 67, 84, 64, 53 and 66 in his first five seasons in the game – if I had to pick one player to fit in this category in any position, it would be McDonald.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Not only did he find the ball at will, McDonald hit the target with 159 of his 196 disposals from Round 10 onwards. But I’ve just got too many questions. Do North become more direct under David Noble? Do opposition sides let McDonald run around by himself if the Roos improve?
Jordan Ridley (Ess) $547,700
Speaking of hitting targets, the numbers say the reigning Bombers best-and-fairest is the best ball-user in the competition.
Of all players to average 16 disposals or more, Ridley’s efficiency of 87.5 per cent is No. 1.
Ridley averaged 18 per game and 266 of his 304 total disposals were effective.
And, while he may have only played nine games in his first three seasons on the list, the right-footer hit the target with 113 of the first 130 disposals of his career.
Ridley also rated elite for intercept marks, contested marks and spoils for a defender, proving he has multiple avenues of scoring.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Ridley’s 2020 was the definition of breakout and his efficiency is likely to keep him in the top-six mix again in 2021.
Jeremy Howe (Coll, $517,900)
The intercept star is another who fits right under this header. Howe averaged 120 points in the opening month of 2020, before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury.
The big discount as a result makes his 2021 price tag look very appealing.
And it is. But I’m still not convinced.
Given the expected adjustment in scaling and Howe’s modified pre-season to-date, it appears too small a sample size for the 30-year-old, who had 27 intecepts across the first four rounds.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s a wait-and-see on this one for me.
THE SLEEPERS
Sam Docherty (Carl) $496,000
Remember this guy?
Only 6.6 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches seem to at the moment – at least in a good way, anyway.
He’s the guy who averaged 109 and 114 in consecutive seasons before his horror injury run.
In those two years, Docherty posted a SuperCoach ton in 33 of the Blues’ 44 matches.
He struggled for consistency last year, finishing with a 92-point average, but still managed to pass the 100-point mark on five occasions – all of them in excess of 117.
I think we should just be concentrating on the fact he played all but one game in 2020 after previously not playing since Round 23, 2017.
Docherty is recovering from off-season ankle surgery but is ahead of schedule according to the Blues.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The introduction of Adam Saad and the return of Nic Newman will be interesting, but I’m starting to talk myself into it.
Steven May (Melb) $507,900
This is how the Melbourne defender finished 2020: 115, 110, 149, 102, 58, 122 and 123.
And it must be noted, May was switched forward against the Dockers in Round 16, resulted in the sub-60 performance.
That’s serious scoring.
The former Sun took 91 kick-ins last year – only Lloyd took more – and he played on with 82 of them. As a result, May rated elite for kicks, effective kicks, disposals, effective disposals and metres gained as a defender.
He barely received a mention in KFC SuperCoach prior to his standout finish to last year, but he did average 82 or more in each of his final three seasons at Gold Coast.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m not saying I will pick him but, on form, and given his effectiveness by foot – something not all that common at the Demons – he should be in more than 0.9 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams.
AVOID
Shannon Hurn (WC) $477,800
He still posted two big scores – 138 and 152 – last year, but the next gen of KFC SuperCoach defenders have well and truly gone past him.
KFC SuperCoach 2021 fixture analysis: How byes, schedule can give your team an edge
A closer look at the fixture can help you pick the right guns and dodge KFC SuperCoach landmines like byes and taggers. Here’s who to pick and who to avoid.
Al Paton
@al_superfooty
February 6, 2021 - 6:00AM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
The byes are back (cue creepy music).
In 2020 the bye rounds, like everything else, were flipped on their head when the original fixture was thrown in the bin due to COVID-19.
KFC SuperCoach players still had bye rounds to contend with, but they appeared with such short notice planning for them was almost impossible.
This year — fingers crossed — we have half a season to prepare for one of the most important periods of the SuperCoach season. And to study the full 2021 AFL fixture for other ways to gain a serious KFC SuperCoach edge.
Given the possibility of more scheduling changes, it’s best to not select an entire squad based on the fixture. But paying attention to it can give you a jump on your KFC SuperCoach rivals.
Experts rated Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Sydney’s fixtures as the easiest in the competition, while Richmond and St Kilda face the toughest draw. But digging a bit deeper reveals a lot more KFC SuperCoach gold.
FAST STARTERS
The first six rounds are a crucial time in KFC SuperCoach.
That’s enough time for rookies and bargain selections to make enough money to start cashing them in and improving our team by adding extra premiums — who hopefully haven’t gone up in value too much themselves in that time.
So it pays to take a close look at the fixture and players’ scoring history against each opponent — available in SuperCoach Plus — to see who could get off to a flyer, pumping out some big KFC SuperCoach numbers to rocket up in value. You want these guys in your team, not jumping out of reach.
If you’re contemplating starting without Max Gawn and hoping he becomes more affordable, you might want to reconsider that plan. The Demons’ first six games are against Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond — so Gawn’s ruck opponents will be Sean Darcy, Paddy Ryder/Rowan Marshall, Braydon Preuss, Rhys Stanley, Jon Ceglar and Toby Nankervis. That could be a platform for some mega Max scoring.
Brodie Grundy’s early draw — Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Brisbane, GWS, West Coast and Essendon — is almost as inviting. He will be a leading captaincy option in Round 1 after scoring 179 against Tim English last year.
Jack Macrae’s eyes would have also lit up when the fixture was released. He faces his five favourite opponents in the first eight rounds — North Melbourne (career average 110, Round 3), Brisbane (134, R4), Gold Coast (136, R5), Richmond (121, R7) and Carlton (118, R8).
In contrast, teammate Josh Dunkley has a career average above 100 against just two of the Dogs’ first six opponents. His past two scores against Round 1 rival Collingwood are 67 and 73.
Patrick Dangerfield (career average of 127 v Round 1 opponent Adelaide), Patrick Cripps, Clayton Oliver, Zach Merrett and Tom Mitchell should all get off to strong starts if history is a guide, while Ben Cunnington (bargain alert!) scored 119 and 132 in his most recent games against North Melbourne’s first two opponents, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast.
But put a red flag next to Giant Josh Kelly. Historically his two toughest opponents are the Bulldogs (career average 82) who he faces in Round 6, and Fremantle (83, R2) while he also has a career average under 90 against Sydney (R5) and Adelaide (R7).
THE BYES
Round 12: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, GWS Giants
Round 13: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast
Round 14: Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Melbourne
Bye rules: Best 18 scoring, three trades per round.
The most obvious tip is to not pick too many players from teams that have the bye in the same round — especially if they play in the same position. This only applies to your keepers since rookies and mid-pricers can be traded out by the time the byes come around, or during the bye rounds (see below).
Top midfielders Lachie Neale, Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett and all the Bulldogs onballers will me missing in Round 13, but the next week is the one to be scared of.
If you’ve going with the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy ruck line-up and no playing emergency you’re down to just 20 available on-field slots in Round 14 to get at least 18 scores. Add popular premiums Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Rowan Marshall and you’re in trouble, and that’s not considering players like Isaac Heeney, Jack Steele or Nat Fyfe.
If you’re playing for leagues a valid strategy is to effectively “tank” in one of the bye rounds by fielding a severely depleted line-up and having much stronger teams for the other two weeks. But if overall rankings is your goal, it’s something to keep in mind because the points gained in the stronger bye weeks are limited by best 18 scoring.
Note: SuperCoach Plus users can hit “show byes” to see how many players you have available each week.
ADVANCED BYE STRATEGY
If you play it smart you can ensure you have 18 players available each bye round to deliver the highest possible score, and improve your squad for the run home at the same time.
This is achieved by trading out cash cows leading into their bye and bringing in premium stars who have had their bye already.
So prime targets to trade in for Round 13 are stars from Geelong (Tom Stewart, Mitch Duncan, Sam Menegola) and GWS (Josh Kelly, Nick Haynes, Lachie Whitfield) while cashing in a Brisbane rookie like Nakia Cockatoo or a Bombers cheapie like Archie Perkins (in an ideal world there will be a rookie from a Round 12 bye team on the bubble to swap them to).
In Round 14 we’ll all be trading out James Rowe and our Sydney and Fremantle rookies and aiming to pick up Bulldogs, Lions and Eagles guns.
It doesn’t always work out that way, but knowing the plan can help us make those 50-50 selection calls now.
If you’re tossing up between starting Tom Stewart and Brayden Maynard in defence, it makes sense to start with Maynard because Stewart fits much better into a bye trade plan.
If you’re hoping to have a “finished” team with 22 premos on field at the end of the bye rounds, you’ll need to start with Round 14 premiums if you want them in your final side.
Jake Lloyd might not maintain his huge starting price but trading him in any time before Round 14 will be awkward since you know he will miss a game. Much easier to just pick him from the start.
Of course, plenty of other factors will influence our trade decisions, but keeping one eye on how many top-scorers you have available for each of the bye rounds as you go will put you in a stronger position when they roll around.
TAGGER ALERT
The tagger is the nemesis of the KFC SuperCoach player, and Matt de Boer is public enemy No.1. The Giants stopper has a history of clamping down on the biggest stars in the game and causing nightmares for SuperCoach players, especially if you have nominated them as captain that week.
In 2021 the Giants play each of Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne, Richmond and Sydney twice — alarm bells for the likes of Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett and Clayton Oliver.
De Boer only encounters Lion Lachie Neale once, in Round 11, but it’s not all good news. In Round 17 last year Sydney’s Ryan Clarke held Neale to just 55 points — a season-low. You can expect he’ll get the job again when the two teams meet in Round 1.
De Boer’s early opponents are St Kilda (Jack Steele), Fremantle (Nat Fyfe) and Melbourne (Oliver). He has a date with the Bulldogs (Marcus Bontempelli) in Round 6.
NEW CLOKE?
Key forwards’ scores are impacted by the quality of their opposition more than any other position, and this year there are four very cheap spearheads who could make a quick cash grab with a couple of big scores in the early rounds.
This move famously helped John Bruyn win the $50,000 grand prize in 2013 when he started with Travis Cloke on the back of an inconsistent 2012 season (average 83) and a good early draw. Cloke exploded out the blocks, averaging 133 over the first six rounds and jumped in value by about $150,000. Bruyn then traded him out — exactly as other coaches were paying top dollar for him — and never looked back.
Could one of these key forwards follow a similar path in 2021?
Joe Daniher (Bris) $233,300 FWD: First six games against Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton
Ben Brown (Melb) $260,300 FWD: Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond
Jeremy Cameron (Geel) $399,100 FWD: Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast
Lance Franklin (Syd) $312,000 FWD: Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, GWS Giants, Gold Coast
Of that group Cameron’s fixture jumps out, with few pundits expecting the Crows, Hawks or Kangaroos to challenge for finals and three of those games — against the Lions, Roos and Eagles — at the Cats’ GMHBA Stadium fortress.
A closer look at the fixture can help you pick the right guns and dodge KFC SuperCoach landmines like byes and taggers. Here’s who to pick and who to avoid.
Al Paton
@al_superfooty
February 6, 2021 - 6:00AM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
The byes are back (cue creepy music).
In 2020 the bye rounds, like everything else, were flipped on their head when the original fixture was thrown in the bin due to COVID-19.
KFC SuperCoach players still had bye rounds to contend with, but they appeared with such short notice planning for them was almost impossible.
This year — fingers crossed — we have half a season to prepare for one of the most important periods of the SuperCoach season. And to study the full 2021 AFL fixture for other ways to gain a serious KFC SuperCoach edge.
Given the possibility of more scheduling changes, it’s best to not select an entire squad based on the fixture. But paying attention to it can give you a jump on your KFC SuperCoach rivals.
Experts rated Essendon, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Sydney’s fixtures as the easiest in the competition, while Richmond and St Kilda face the toughest draw. But digging a bit deeper reveals a lot more KFC SuperCoach gold.
FAST STARTERS
The first six rounds are a crucial time in KFC SuperCoach.
That’s enough time for rookies and bargain selections to make enough money to start cashing them in and improving our team by adding extra premiums — who hopefully haven’t gone up in value too much themselves in that time.
So it pays to take a close look at the fixture and players’ scoring history against each opponent — available in SuperCoach Plus — to see who could get off to a flyer, pumping out some big KFC SuperCoach numbers to rocket up in value. You want these guys in your team, not jumping out of reach.
If you’re contemplating starting without Max Gawn and hoping he becomes more affordable, you might want to reconsider that plan. The Demons’ first six games are against Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond — so Gawn’s ruck opponents will be Sean Darcy, Paddy Ryder/Rowan Marshall, Braydon Preuss, Rhys Stanley, Jon Ceglar and Toby Nankervis. That could be a platform for some mega Max scoring.
Brodie Grundy’s early draw — Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Brisbane, GWS, West Coast and Essendon — is almost as inviting. He will be a leading captaincy option in Round 1 after scoring 179 against Tim English last year.
Jack Macrae’s eyes would have also lit up when the fixture was released. He faces his five favourite opponents in the first eight rounds — North Melbourne (career average 110, Round 3), Brisbane (134, R4), Gold Coast (136, R5), Richmond (121, R7) and Carlton (118, R8).
In contrast, teammate Josh Dunkley has a career average above 100 against just two of the Dogs’ first six opponents. His past two scores against Round 1 rival Collingwood are 67 and 73.
Patrick Dangerfield (career average of 127 v Round 1 opponent Adelaide), Patrick Cripps, Clayton Oliver, Zach Merrett and Tom Mitchell should all get off to strong starts if history is a guide, while Ben Cunnington (bargain alert!) scored 119 and 132 in his most recent games against North Melbourne’s first two opponents, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast.
But put a red flag next to Giant Josh Kelly. Historically his two toughest opponents are the Bulldogs (career average 82) who he faces in Round 6, and Fremantle (83, R2) while he also has a career average under 90 against Sydney (R5) and Adelaide (R7).
THE BYES
Round 12: Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, GWS Giants
Round 13: Brisbane Lions, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast
Round 14: Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Melbourne
Bye rules: Best 18 scoring, three trades per round.
The most obvious tip is to not pick too many players from teams that have the bye in the same round — especially if they play in the same position. This only applies to your keepers since rookies and mid-pricers can be traded out by the time the byes come around, or during the bye rounds (see below).
Top midfielders Lachie Neale, Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett and all the Bulldogs onballers will me missing in Round 13, but the next week is the one to be scared of.
If you’ve going with the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy ruck line-up and no playing emergency you’re down to just 20 available on-field slots in Round 14 to get at least 18 scores. Add popular premiums Jake Lloyd, Rory Laird and Rowan Marshall and you’re in trouble, and that’s not considering players like Isaac Heeney, Jack Steele or Nat Fyfe.
If you’re playing for leagues a valid strategy is to effectively “tank” in one of the bye rounds by fielding a severely depleted line-up and having much stronger teams for the other two weeks. But if overall rankings is your goal, it’s something to keep in mind because the points gained in the stronger bye weeks are limited by best 18 scoring.
Note: SuperCoach Plus users can hit “show byes” to see how many players you have available each week.
ADVANCED BYE STRATEGY
If you play it smart you can ensure you have 18 players available each bye round to deliver the highest possible score, and improve your squad for the run home at the same time.
This is achieved by trading out cash cows leading into their bye and bringing in premium stars who have had their bye already.
So prime targets to trade in for Round 13 are stars from Geelong (Tom Stewart, Mitch Duncan, Sam Menegola) and GWS (Josh Kelly, Nick Haynes, Lachie Whitfield) while cashing in a Brisbane rookie like Nakia Cockatoo or a Bombers cheapie like Archie Perkins (in an ideal world there will be a rookie from a Round 12 bye team on the bubble to swap them to).
In Round 14 we’ll all be trading out James Rowe and our Sydney and Fremantle rookies and aiming to pick up Bulldogs, Lions and Eagles guns.
It doesn’t always work out that way, but knowing the plan can help us make those 50-50 selection calls now.
If you’re tossing up between starting Tom Stewart and Brayden Maynard in defence, it makes sense to start with Maynard because Stewart fits much better into a bye trade plan.
If you’re hoping to have a “finished” team with 22 premos on field at the end of the bye rounds, you’ll need to start with Round 14 premiums if you want them in your final side.
Jake Lloyd might not maintain his huge starting price but trading him in any time before Round 14 will be awkward since you know he will miss a game. Much easier to just pick him from the start.
Of course, plenty of other factors will influence our trade decisions, but keeping one eye on how many top-scorers you have available for each of the bye rounds as you go will put you in a stronger position when they roll around.
TAGGER ALERT
The tagger is the nemesis of the KFC SuperCoach player, and Matt de Boer is public enemy No.1. The Giants stopper has a history of clamping down on the biggest stars in the game and causing nightmares for SuperCoach players, especially if you have nominated them as captain that week.
In 2021 the Giants play each of Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne, Richmond and Sydney twice — alarm bells for the likes of Patrick Cripps, Zach Merrett and Clayton Oliver.
De Boer only encounters Lion Lachie Neale once, in Round 11, but it’s not all good news. In Round 17 last year Sydney’s Ryan Clarke held Neale to just 55 points — a season-low. You can expect he’ll get the job again when the two teams meet in Round 1.
De Boer’s early opponents are St Kilda (Jack Steele), Fremantle (Nat Fyfe) and Melbourne (Oliver). He has a date with the Bulldogs (Marcus Bontempelli) in Round 6.
NEW CLOKE?
Key forwards’ scores are impacted by the quality of their opposition more than any other position, and this year there are four very cheap spearheads who could make a quick cash grab with a couple of big scores in the early rounds.
This move famously helped John Bruyn win the $50,000 grand prize in 2013 when he started with Travis Cloke on the back of an inconsistent 2012 season (average 83) and a good early draw. Cloke exploded out the blocks, averaging 133 over the first six rounds and jumped in value by about $150,000. Bruyn then traded him out — exactly as other coaches were paying top dollar for him — and never looked back.
Could one of these key forwards follow a similar path in 2021?
Joe Daniher (Bris) $233,300 FWD: First six games against Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton
Ben Brown (Melb) $260,300 FWD: Fremantle, St Kilda, GWS Giants, Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond
Jeremy Cameron (Geel) $399,100 FWD: Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, West Coast
Lance Franklin (Syd) $312,000 FWD: Brisbane, Adelaide, Richmond, Essendon, GWS Giants, Gold Coast
Of that group Cameron’s fixture jumps out, with few pundits expecting the Crows, Hawks or Kangaroos to challenge for finals and three of those games — against the Lions, Roos and Eagles — at the Cats’ GMHBA Stadium fortress.
AFL 2021: Dustin Martin showing no signs of slowing down after enjoying another outstanding pre-season
He’s one of the AFL’s greatest big-game players, and turns 30 this year, yet Dustin Martin refuses to take his foot off the pedal and is ready to spearhead another Richmond title push.
Richmond superstar Dustin Martin will start the season in excellent condition after showing on the training track this summer he was hungry for more success.
Tigers’ high performance chief Peter Burge confirmed the squad was in good shape heading into the new season with only three players currently in the rehabilitation group.
Ruckman Ivan Soldo and youngster Noah Cumberland are both out with serious knee injuries, while Bachar Houli is in doubt for Round 1 with the calf problem he suffered in the Grand Final.
Gun midfielder Dion Prestia also tweaked his ankle in match simulation last week, but is expected to be back in full training next week.
It means Richmond is pleased with its fitness bill four months after taking out back-to-back premierships, in another big tick for its strength and conditioning department.
And even as Martin prepares to turn 30 this year, Burge said the champion ballwinner had enjoyed another outstanding pre-season campaign and was showing no signs of slowing down.
“He’s been pretty impressive, ‘Dusty’,” Burge said.
“He would hate for me to be talking him up, but for someone who has achieved so much in the past few years you could excuse someone maybe for just taking their foot off the pedal.
“He doesn’t miss training, he is always looking to do more, and he’s just really impressive.”
Martin, 29, cemented his reputation as one of the greatest big game players in AFL history in the Tigers’ third premiership win in four years, taking out his third Norm Smith Medal.
Burge said even after a decent session on Monday at Punt Rd Oval, Martin was keen to do more.
“He asked me afterwards if he could do a (extra) fartlek (interval running) session,” Burge said.
“I said ‘Mate you don’t need to do it today, you’ve got a pretty heavy session coming up’, but quite often he will do something anyway because he likes to maintain that high standard.
“He’s older and he’s more mature and he really enjoys being around his teammates given COVID and all of the restrictions.
“He gets a real lift coming in to the club and training. It’s his outlet and he loves it.”
He’s one of the AFL’s greatest big-game players, and turns 30 this year, yet Dustin Martin refuses to take his foot off the pedal and is ready to spearhead another Richmond title push.
Richmond superstar Dustin Martin will start the season in excellent condition after showing on the training track this summer he was hungry for more success.
Tigers’ high performance chief Peter Burge confirmed the squad was in good shape heading into the new season with only three players currently in the rehabilitation group.
Ruckman Ivan Soldo and youngster Noah Cumberland are both out with serious knee injuries, while Bachar Houli is in doubt for Round 1 with the calf problem he suffered in the Grand Final.
Gun midfielder Dion Prestia also tweaked his ankle in match simulation last week, but is expected to be back in full training next week.
It means Richmond is pleased with its fitness bill four months after taking out back-to-back premierships, in another big tick for its strength and conditioning department.
And even as Martin prepares to turn 30 this year, Burge said the champion ballwinner had enjoyed another outstanding pre-season campaign and was showing no signs of slowing down.
“He’s been pretty impressive, ‘Dusty’,” Burge said.
“He would hate for me to be talking him up, but for someone who has achieved so much in the past few years you could excuse someone maybe for just taking their foot off the pedal.
“He doesn’t miss training, he is always looking to do more, and he’s just really impressive.”
Martin, 29, cemented his reputation as one of the greatest big game players in AFL history in the Tigers’ third premiership win in four years, taking out his third Norm Smith Medal.
Burge said even after a decent session on Monday at Punt Rd Oval, Martin was keen to do more.
“He asked me afterwards if he could do a (extra) fartlek (interval running) session,” Burge said.
“I said ‘Mate you don’t need to do it today, you’ve got a pretty heavy session coming up’, but quite often he will do something anyway because he likes to maintain that high standard.
“He’s older and he’s more mature and he really enjoys being around his teammates given COVID and all of the restrictions.
“He gets a real lift coming in to the club and training. It’s his outlet and he loves it.”
- Joined
- 7 Sep 2020
- Messages
- 12,069
- Likes
- 42,465
I mean it's a puff piece. He's hardly going to say he showed up and I could still smell Vegas on him although to be fair, maybe Covid means no Vegas this time and we should be picking him!
Not sure why he's considered unders, he wasn't great last year and there's no real reason to think his role will be better this year. If anything everyone being fit is a negative for Dusty who likes to hide out in the forwardline for the first third of the year, trot around to get some fitness in the middle third and then just maintain into the finals for a deep run. He's been in the same ball park average for the 7 out of the 8 seasons where he didn't show up in insane shape playing the perfect midfield role and 2017 and 2018 are the only seasons since 2015 where he started strong. Last two years in particular he's started really slowly.
Still a solid pick because he'll play most games and he'll be among it at the end of things but he's got a very strong record of being available a fair bit cheaper at some point and only one season where he actually scored a hurt level higher than his starting price. Not likely to hurt you for not starting him, likely to be cheaper in the first couple of months.
Still think his durability and certainty make him a good starting choice, just think the other factors make him an even better upgrade target.
Not sure why he's considered unders, he wasn't great last year and there's no real reason to think his role will be better this year. If anything everyone being fit is a negative for Dusty who likes to hide out in the forwardline for the first third of the year, trot around to get some fitness in the middle third and then just maintain into the finals for a deep run. He's been in the same ball park average for the 7 out of the 8 seasons where he didn't show up in insane shape playing the perfect midfield role and 2017 and 2018 are the only seasons since 2015 where he started strong. Last two years in particular he's started really slowly.
Still a solid pick because he'll play most games and he'll be among it at the end of things but he's got a very strong record of being available a fair bit cheaper at some point and only one season where he actually scored a hurt level higher than his starting price. Not likely to hurt you for not starting him, likely to be cheaper in the first couple of months.
Still think his durability and certainty make him a good starting choice, just think the other factors make him an even better upgrade target.
Champion Data’s KFC SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako has picked his first team of the 2021 pre-season — and there are some big surprises.
Sticking to a pricing structure and having a balanced squad should be at the forefront of every team. That is, picking a handful of premiums in each position and complementing them with rookies, or even some mid-price options should you decide to take a punt. Also, look out for those fallen premiums as they have the potential to bounce back and score plenty of points.
In terms of rookies, it’s a bit early to know who’s likely to play early on. Therefore, the rookies I have picked in my team are essentially just placeholders until we can identify the players to target.
The premiums pick themselves, but do target those that boast strong durability. Covering premiums that are sidelined through injury isn’t great, so you can minimise that risk by picking players that have a proven durability track record.
Picking a breakout player like Christian Petracca from last season is often a bonus, and they generally emerge during the pre-season competition, as he did last year with a score of 188. I’m pretty sure we’ll have at least one player announce himself during the AFL Community Series.
DEFENDERS
Structure: Three premiums, one mid-priced and four rookies.
Unlike last season, I have decided to start with three premiums in defence. Jake Lloyd basically picks himself, while I also like the security of owning Tom Stewart. Lloyd dropped below 100 points just twice last season, while Stewart failed to reach that mark in just five of his full matches. At this stage, I have tentatively pencilled Jeremy Howe in as my third premium, but he could easily become one of Caleb Daniel, Lachie Whitfield or even Zac Williams.
I am very bullish on Isaac Cumming as a mid-price option. On the back of Heath Shaw, Zac Williams and Aidan Corr leaving the Giants, Cumming could be a defensive gem. In one of his few appearances in 2020, he finished with 16 disposals and 97 points in Round 18. He also took four kick-ins per game which ranks him in the top-10 in the competition. Cumming also signed a new contract at the end of last season and will no doubt be given every chance to become a regular.
As I outlined above, the rookies are only placeholders at this stage, but I am quietly confident that Thomas Highmore may get some early games. The Saints have a track record of playing their mature-age recruits early — Callum Wilkie hasn’t missed a game since arriving on the scene in 2019.
MIDFIELDERS
Structure: Three premiums, one fallen premium, one mid-priced and six rookies.
From an overall structure point of view, nothing has changed here from last season. I’ll once again go in with Lachie Neale, even though he starts the season as the most expensive midfielder. He dropped below 100 points in just three games in 2020 and pumped out 13 scores of at least 130. He has also started each of the past two seasons in blazing fashion, averaging 146 and 159 points respectively in the opening four rounds.
After the acquisition of Adam Treloar, there is plenty of uncertainty around the Bulldogs’ midfield structure. Luke Beveridge is notorious for spinning the magnets, which makes picking a Bulldogs midfielder in your starting side somewhat of a risk. I have opted for inside bull Clayton Oliver instead.
At this stage, Patrick Dangerfield is in my midfield as a way to accommodate the guns in attack. Dangerfield’s selection also gives me that valuable DPP link to the forwards. He will eventually find his way into that position at some stage this season.
Ben Cunnington is the fallen premium I have opted for. He scored 184 points in Round 1 last season before a back injury cruelly ended his season. Tim Taranto is another player I could look at in that price bracket.
Tom Green showed enough in his six matches last season to suggest he could be in for a huge second season. In his best display he finished with 30 disposals, 22 contested possessions and 119 points in his penultimate match of the year. He averaged 72 points in his debut season, which is almost identical to Oliver in his debut year. As we all know, Oliver broke out in his second year and increased his output by 41 points per game. There are no guarantees that Green enjoys a similar spike, bit it’s definitely a risk worth taking.
The noise coming out of the Kangaroos is that young gun Will Phillips will debut in Round 1 – making him a safe pick in the midfield. The other five rookies could all change depending on who emerges during the pre-season.
RUCKS
Structure: Two premiums and one floating doughnut
There is a genuine temptation to start with Brayden Preuss this season. Such a move will save me a whopping $345,000 should I pick him instead of Brodie Grundy. Preuss will lead the Giants’ ruck division now that Sam Jacobs has retired and presents tremendous value at his starting price.
However, despite Preuss’s obvious upside, I will once again go with the trusty combination of Max Gawn and Grundy. Only Neale (13 times) exceeded 120 points more than Gawn (11 times) despite him missing three games through injury.
This ruck combination isn’t set in stone, though. I am leaving the door slightly ajar for a potential swap to Preuss should I decide to mix things up a bit and use the saved funds elsewhere.
Dockers rookie Josh Treacy will be handed the all-important floating doughnut role in 2021. His DPP status is the key, as you’ll see when I outline my forward line.
FORWARDS
Structure: Three premiums, one mid-priced and four rookies.
Despite my initial reservations around the Bulldogs’ midfield, the fact that Josh Dunkley has DPP status earns him a place in my forward line at this stage.
He attended 81 per cent of centre bounces prior to his injury last season, but upon his return in Round 10, his centre bounce involvement dropped to 22 per cent. Irrespective of those
figures, he has plenty of appeal as a forward.
Owning a ruckman in the forwards often gives you a strategic edge, which makes Rowan Marshall close to a must-have in my eyes. He provides me with another ruck option should one of my rucks get injured/suspended. That’s when the link with Treacy comes into play.
The fact that Marshall will once again share the ruck duties with Paddy Ryder shouldn’t deter you in any way, as the Saints may look to rest Ryder at stages throughout the year. Marshall scored 100-plus points in the two games Ryder missed through injury in 2020.
Dayne Zorko rounds out my premium forwards. His scoring was somewhat erratic last season, but his ceiling is huge – posting two scores of 160-plus points. He was also third in line at centre bounces behind Jarryd Lyons and Lachie Neale at Brisbane.
Jack Ziebell’s starting price basically sums up his 2020 season. He had an injury-interrupted pre-season and missed nine games through injury – posting career-lows in almost every statistic. He now looks set for a role change after training in defence across the pre-season and is way too cheap not to start with.
James Rowe is the only rookie forward that’s close to being locked in at this stage. With Tyson Stengle suspended for the opening four rounds, Rowe could be given a chance to make the forward pressure role his own. He dominated in the SANFL last season, averaging 15 disposals, three goals and 96 points. The remaining three forwards are only placeholders.