Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion

[Manikato1]

Mentioned in the ruck thread that Treacy is a chance for round 1. If this comes to fruition then we will need to look at an alternative floating donut in order to utilise the VC loophole and can also have the option at looping a player on our benches as emergency. Might even be some coaches who opt for two FD’s so might find the following useful even if Treacy doesn’t play round 1.

So what are our options? Well, if we’re looking at $102,400 options then there aren’t many. We also only have 6 rounds of the fixture to work with too.

To work out who will be best I’ll use a simple number system whereby the first game of the round is number 1 and the last game of the round is number 9. So essentially the highest score is our man.

A. Newchurch ADE (MID/FWD): 4, 3, 3, 7, 7, 7 for a total of 31

B. Chugg COLL (DEF/FWD) or Ginnivan COLL (MID/FWD): 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 8 for a total of 20

C. Fyfe GC (DEF/MID) or Oea (MID/FWD): 9, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3 for a total of 29

D. Saunders HAW (MID/FWD): 5, 7, 9, 9, 8, 7 for a total of 45

So a clear winner here with Hawthorn’s Josh Saunders as the best option for a floating donut if Treacy plays round 1 or if you’re looking for a second donut.

Reports are that he played well in match sims. I not a close Freo watcher but Tabener has an injury so maybe he gets a shot at it early until Tabener is fit again. I would have thought Meek would have been in front of him in the ruck so cannot see him getting into that space.

JL has been quoted as wanting two key forwards with Fyfe rotating between midfield and forward. When forward he is a strong mark or creates a distraction that allows the other key forwards to come into the game. Fyfe took a screamer in the forward line in the match sim.

 

[Darkie]

Thanks for that , very much appreciated.

Would be nice if they got to that mark by say Round 7 (Bye rounds might be more realistic)

Ziebell 86.58 (achieved 5/12)
Daniher 81.66 (1/8)
Impey 77.56 (0/7)

actually makes them less clear cut than I initially thought , I guess we are buying perceived JS (unless managed) with the 3 of them.

If they all got to $ 375 k ish should be reasonable to upgrade to a fallen premium around $ 500k (hopefully)

Phillips 74.66
Campbell 72.86

Seems a lot of mid options at North , if Campbell is off HB that sounds promising.

I guess we just need to wait until Round 1 to see what other options are available.

Just hate when you pick rookies and they play 3-4 games , then vanish , with limited $$$ growth , very annoying and frustrating.

No problem, and agreed on your comments.

I find that getting those lineball calls on rookies right (is this a spike score, meaning I trade out soon? Will they come back in, meaning I should hold them on the bench?) can make a big difference.

Having a high JS name like Ziebell can make it slightly easier to carry a low BE rookie on the bench if they do happen to be left out for a game or two. [Ie there is an indirect benefit as well as a direct benefit of Zeibell’s JS.]

Of course you don’t know at the time it’s only for a game or two, but it gives you an easier option.

 

[Herbie66]

No problem, and agreed on your comments.

I find that getting those lineball calls on rookies right (is this a spike score, meaning I trade out soon? Will they come back in, meaning I should hold them on the bench?) can make a big difference.

Having a high JS name like Ziebell can make it slightly easier to carry a low BE rookie on the bench if they do happen to be left out for a game or two. [Ie there is an indirect benefit as well as a direct benefit of Zeibell’s JS.]

Of course you don’t know at the time it’s only for a game or two, but it gives you an easier option.

I made a lot of mistakes last season trading out rookies too early (who returned later in the season , McInerney from Sydney springs too mind) due to the fact that their were "must have" rookies on the bubble , so obviously timing affects a lot of things.

How nice it would be if rookies named Round 1 all played 6-8 consecutive games and made the game a lot easier 😀

I guess Ziebell , Daniher & Impey do offer that JS/scoring factor to carry through until their Byes.

Seems to be a lot of F/M rookies in the mix at this stage so you could rotate them through F6 & forward/mid bench like you are suggesting.

Problem is the more games they miss early on , the more their $$$ stall , and delays downgrades/upgrades.

I guess if we have the majority of the same rookies we are all in the same boat.

 

[wogitalia]

Thanks for that , very much appreciated.

Would be nice if they got to that mark by say Round 7 (Bye rounds might be more realistic)

Ziebell 86.58 (achieved 5/12)
Daniher 81.66 (1/8)
Impey 77.56 (0/7)

actually makes them less clear cut than I initially thought , I guess we are buying perceived JS (unless managed) with the 3 of them.

If they all got to $ 375 k ish should be reasonable to upgrade to a fallen premium around $ 500k (hopefully)

Phillips 74.66
Campbell 72.86

Seems a lot of mid options at North , if Campbell is off HB that sounds promising.

I guess we just need to wait until Round 1 to see what other options are available.

Just hate when you pick rookies and they play 3-4 games , then vanish , with limited $$$ growth , very annoying and frustrating.

Daniher has a lot of price spike potential, realistically they only need to average that for a month to get the majority of the price rise, so if Daniher can kick 4 or 5 in round 3 and score a 120, he just needs a couple more decent games and he'll make his cash. Impey I don't like as much purely because he hasn't really shown that same ability to spike, he'll be much more of a slow burn most likely where you pay the premium to have a guy pretty consistently scoring 60+ and playing. Still arguably worth it, fwiw.

The more expensive rookies you only really want to take if there aren't equivalent cheaper options or like a Rowell/Anderson last year where their JS is significantly higher.

Campbell playing in defense I think can score at that level, especially for a month or so on the back of a decent score. Forward it will be difficult.

 

[Under The Dome]

I made a lot of mistakes last season trading out rookies too early (who returned later in the season , McInerney from Sydney springs too mind) due to the fact that their were "must have" rookies on the bubble , so obviously timing affects a lot of things.

How nice it would be if rookies named Round 1 all played 6-8 consecutive games and made the game a lot easier 😀

I guess Ziebell , Daniher & Impey do offer that JS/scoring factor to carry through until their Byes.

Seems to be a lot of F/M rookies in the mix at this stage so you could rotate them through F6 & forward/mid bench like you are suggesting.

Problem is the more games they miss early on , the more their $$$ stall , and delays downgrades/upgrades.

I guess if we have the majority of the same rookies we are all in the same boat.

I'd say last year rookie culling was heightened with limited rounds and price movement on the second game. You and many others would be in that boat for wanting to move early.

 

[Philzsay]

Mentioned in the ruck thread that Treacy is a chance for round 1. If this comes to fruition then we will need to look at an alternative floating donut in order to utilise the VC loophole and can also have the option at looping a player on our benches as emergency. Might even be some coaches who opt for two FD’s so might find the following useful even if Treacy doesn’t play round 1.

So what are our options? Well, if we’re looking at $102,400 options then there aren’t many. We also only have 6 rounds of the fixture to work with too.

To work out who will be best I’ll use a simple number system whereby the first game of the round is number 1 and the last game of the round is number 9. So essentially the highest score is our man.

A. Newchurch ADE (MID/FWD): 4, 3, 3, 7, 7, 7 for a total of 31

B. Chugg COLL (DEF/FWD) or Ginnivan COLL (MID/FWD): 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 8 for a total of 20

C. Fyfe GC (DEF/MID) or Oea GC (MID/FWD): 9, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3 for a total of 29

D. Saunders HAW (MID/FWD): 5, 7, 9, 9, 8, 7 for a total of 45

So a clear winner here with Hawthorn’s Josh Saunders as the best option for a floating donut if Treacy plays round 1 or if you’re looking for a second donut.

Personally I'm looking forward to:
- my VC Neale scoring 176
- my E ruckman Max Gawn scoring 161
- Throwing the C on Treacy
- Freo declares no late changes an hour before the game, so all is sweet.
- the wife forcing me to run some stupid errand
- getting back from the errand 5 minutes after the Freo game started, to find out Sean Darcy pinged his hammy in the warm up, causing Treacy to be a late in.
- Treacy sucking scoring 13.

😲😪😂

 

[warewolves]

Was Valente sighted in the Freo scratch match?

 

[blue dreamer]

Mentioned in the ruck thread that Treacy is a chance for round 1. If this comes to fruition then we will need to look at an alternative floating donut in order to utilise the VC loophole and can also have the option at looping a player on our benches as emergency. Might even be some coaches who opt for two FD’s so might find the following useful even if Treacy doesn’t play round 1.

So what are our options? Well, if we’re looking at $102,400 options then there aren’t many. We also only have 6 rounds of the fixture to work with too.

To work out who will be best I’ll use a simple number system whereby the first game of the round is number 1 and the last game of the round is number 9. So essentially the highest score is our man.

A. Newchurch ADE (MID/FWD): 4, 3, 3, 7, 7, 7 for a total of 31

B. Chugg COLL (DEF/FWD) or Ginnivan COLL (MID/FWD): 2, 1, 1, 6, 2, 8 for a total of 20

C. Fyfe GC (DEF/MID) or Oea GC (MID/FWD): 9, 6, 3, 5, 3, 3 for a total of 29

D. Saunders HAW (MID/FWD): 5, 7, 9, 9, 8, 7 for a total of 45

So a clear winner here with Hawthorn’s Josh Saunders as the best option for a floating donut if Treacy plays round 1 or if you’re looking for a second donut.

As an aside to this (probably not the right thread but does follow on from this post) do we know if team selection will revert to all teams on Thursday night including extended squads or stay as the day before games like last season.
Will make an enormous difference I feel to nailing rookie selections (so this is probably the right thread after all)

 

[blue dreamer]

Reports are that he played well in match sims. I not a close Freo watcher but Tabener has an injury so maybe he gets a shot at it early until Tabener is fit again. I would have thought Meek would have been in front of him in the ruck so cannot see him getting into that space.

JL has been quoted as wanting two key forwards with Fyfe rotating between midfield and forward. When forward he is a strong mark or creates a distraction that allows the other key forwards to come into the game. Fyfe took a screamer in the forward line in the match sim.

Lol, I must still be in cricket mode.
My first thought when I read this was what has Langer got to do with it.

 

[Manikato1]

Lol, I must still be in cricket mode.
My first thought when I read this was what has Langer got to do with it.

I can transpose for you if you like.

JL has been quoted as wanting two key opening batsmens with someone who can actually bat rotating between middle order and top order. When forward the batsmen who can actually bat is a strong striker of the ball and creates a distraction that allows the other key batsmen to come into the game. Someone hit a century while waiting to go to South Africa but that doesn't matter now.

 

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361514835469430793

 

[Ben's Beasts]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361514835469430793

When he plays, you just pick him.

In his 15 games last year, he averaged 33.5 disposals and 118.5 fantasy points for Sturt. That's DT points so he likely would have averaged even more in SC.

 

[Bomber18]

When he plays, you just pick him.

In his 15 games last year, he averaged 33.5 disposals and 118.5 fantasy points for Sturt. That's DT points so he likely would have averaged even more in SC.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361518463764717569

 

[Herbie66]

When he plays, you just pick him.

In his 15 games last year, he averaged 33.5 disposals and 118.5 fantasy points for Sturt. That's DT points so he likely would have averaged even more in SC.

Some might not realise that was for the U18 side.

Interesting he didn't play a reserves or senior game at all.

 

[Shannon]

So with no Thursday team announcements/ teams will be named the day prior like last year - trying to pick the right rookies that will be playing from round 1 will be very difficult. Adding to the difficulty is that the majority of the rookies played far less football than normal, so in many cases these kids are going to take longer to get up to AFL speed - it is quite a big leap, only the most talented kids can do it reasonably easily.

Lets look at the round 1 fixture :-

Thursday, Mar 18
Richmond v Carlton
Possible rookies - Durdin & RCD. Both chances, RCD sounds very promising.

Friday, Mar 19
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
Possible rookies - Finlay Macrae, Chugg, Bianco,Reef McInnes & Kelly. Macrae seems the most ready, Chugg also impressing.

Saturday, Mar 20
Melbourne v Fremantle
Possible rookies - Laurie, Bowey, Rosman, Chapman & Treacy ( a few Freo key fwds under injury clouds)

Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Possible rookies - Rowe & Cooper Stephens. Rowe looks like a lock, everyone will have him.

Essendon v Hawthorn
Possible rookies - Cox, Perkins, Eyre, Cahill, Reid, Grainger-Barras, Downie & Brockman. Lots of rookies possible for this game, shame it is a Sat pm game - DGB the most likely, Cox & Cahill real chances along with Downie.

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Possible rookies - Cockatoo, Smith, Campbell, Gould, Gulden & McDonald. Another game with plenty of fantasy relevant rookies. Cockatoo the most likely, all the swans rookies are chances ....does anyone have Horse's mobile number so we can check with him? @wogitalia

Sunday, Mar 21
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Possible rookies - Phillips, Powell, Spicer & Jones. Phillips seems a certain round 1 starter, Powell's numbers are amazing but not sure his body is ready (Corr gave him a real rap I know today)/ would North debut 2 mid rookies round 1 with Cunnington now fit? Jones has so much competition in the half back position for Port. Them playing on a Sunday puts a real red flag on him for mine/ too much doubt he will be picked especially when there is quite a few back rookie options this year.

GWS Giants v St Kilda Giants Stadium
Possible rookies - Wehr & Highmore. Real bummer this game is a Sunday game also as both are mature age rookies, think they are real chances for round 1.

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns
Possible rookies - Davies maybe but not sure on anyone else. Last game of the round on a Sunday afternoon, personally I think I will give any possible rookies from this game a miss.

So with this being the case/ so much uncertainty with the rookies this year, I think the traditional Guns & Rookies approach will need some tinkering. Only the rookies that have strong claims on playing round 1 (Rowe & Phillips for example) could be locked in with any real confidence. Guys like Hayden Young/ Impey/ Daniher in the 200K - 300K range appeal with their stronger JS so to fit them in we may have to not be able to pick the top priced premiums like Lloyd/Neale/Danger etc & look for value in the premiums we pick more than we ever have before.

Certainly makes things interesting & I think guys that like to think outside of the box can really shine this year, we have to be more open minded than ever before in strategy/ team structure than ever before as it is a unique season that we have been presented with.

 

[Herbie66]

Thankfully it is a rolling lockout then 😀

Carl v Rich announced Wednesday night

Coll v WB announced Thursday night

4 games announced Friday night

Has their been a actual time mentioned ? or can it be any time ?

Is it the actual 22 + Emergencies or are they just announcing a Squad (which the BBL sides did)

Hopefully clubs will announce their debutants during the week to give us more information.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

So with no Thursday team announcements/ teams will be named the day prior like last year - trying to pick the right rookies that will be playing from round 1 will be very difficult. Adding to the difficulty is that the majority of the rookies played far less football than normal, so in many cases these kids are going to take longer to get up to AFL speed - it is quite a big leap, only the most talented kids can do it reasonably easily.

Lets look at the round 1 fixture :-

Thursday, Mar 18
Richmond v Carlton
Possible rookies - Durdin & RCD. Both chances, RCD sounds very promising.

Friday, Mar 19
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs
Possible rookies - Finlay Macrae, Chugg, Bianco,Reef McInnes & Kelly. Macrae seems the most ready, Chugg also impressing.

Saturday, Mar 20
Melbourne v Fremantle
Possible rookies - Laurie, Bowey, Rosman, Chapman & Treacy ( a few Freo key fwds under injury clouds)

Adelaide Crows v Geelong Cats
Possible rookies - Rowe & Cooper Stephens. Rowe looks like a lock, everyone will have him.

Essendon v Hawthorn
Possible rookies - Cox, Perkins, Eyre, Cahill, Reid, Grainger-Barras, Downie & Brockman. Lots of rookies possible for this game, shame it is a Sat pm game - DGB the most likely, Cox & Cahill real chances along with Downie.

Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Possible rookies - Cockatoo, Smith, Campbell, Gould, Gulden & McDonald. Another game with plenty of fantasy relevant rookies. Cockatoo the most likely, all the swans rookies are chances ....does anyone have Horse's mobile number so we can check with him? @wogitalia

Sunday, Mar 21
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Possible rookies - Phillips, Powell, Spicer & Jones. Phillips seems a certain round 1 starter, Powell's numbers are amazing but not sure his body is ready (Corr gave him a real rap I know today)/ would North debut 2 mid rookies round 1 with Cunnington now fit? Jone has so much competition in the half back position for Port. Them playing on a Sunday puts a real red flag on him for mine/ too much doubt he will be picked especially when there is quite a few back rookie options this year.

GWS Giants v St Kilda Giants Stadium
Possible rookies - Wehr & Highmore. Real bummer this game is a Sunday game also as both are mature age rookies, think they are real chances for round 1.

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns
Possible rookies - Davies maybe but not sure on anyone else. Last game of the round on a Sunday afternoon, personally I think I will give any possible rookies from this game a miss.

So with this being the case/ so much uncertainty with the rookies this year, I think the traditional Guns & Rookies approach will need some tinkering. Only the rookies that have strong claims on playing round 1 (Rowe & Phillips for example) could be locked in with any real confidence. Guys like Hayden Young/ Impey/ Daniher in the 200K - 300K range appeal with their stronger JS so to fit them in we may have to not be able to pick the top priced premiums like Lloyd/Neale/Danger etc & look for value in the premiums we pick more than we ever have before.

Certainly makes things interesting & I think guys that like to think outside of the box can really shine this year, we have to be more open minded than ever before in strategy/ team structure than ever before as it is a unique season that we have been presented with.

Was discussing this exact situation with a mate from work today.

That GWS v Saints game being second last of the round is the trickiest of all as one or both of Wehr/Highmore missing could be dire for our defence.

Really hoping that like most clubs have done previous seasons, we get the debut announcements prior to the weekend or at least early on the day before, especially GWS and St Kilda.

 

[Herbie66]

Is Rowe such a lock ?

If they stick with McAdam & Murphy , Stengle's spot could go to anyone of Jones , McHenry , Rowe , Schoenberg.

I think they easily have 26-28 fighting for 22 spots.

 

[randomcliche]

Thankfully it is a rolling lockout then 😀

Carl v Rich announced Wednesday night

Coll v WB announced Thursday night

4 games announced Friday night

Has their been a actual time mentioned ? or can it be any time ?

Is it the actual 22 + Emergencies or are they just announcing a Squad (which the BBL sides did)

Hopefully clubs will announce their debutants during the week to give us more information.

I haven't seen any announcement for Saturday but normally 5pm or thereabouts for Sunday teams. Most will spill debutantes prior for the press puff promo pieces. #hopefully

 

[Broar]

Will anyone lock in someone like Chugg even if he's not named?

Like we might be able to get enough rookies without him but if the likes of Highmore & Wehr aren't named you could be in some real trouble rookiewise.

At least with Chugg you can save 15 to 20k and he has that valuable def/fwd, so he can be rotated with Worrell & Laurie, you'd hope he'd get a game sooner rather than later.

But he plays for Collingwood which will mean loop wise he's pretty useless.