Not sure if i posted this Rowell analysis previously
* obviously the smaller the sample data the greater the extrapolation but clearly the kid can play.
Also i should have used 125% (1.25) adjustment so slightly higher than figures below
The Rowell factor
Lets take his last game out where injured in first 6minutes.
Upon debut, first 4 games (reduced to 16mins) he had
21.5disp (25.8 adjusted by 120% if normal 20mins)
12.25cont poss (7th behind neale at 12.42 in 2020)
adjusted is 14.69 cp avg 6th behind Cunnington in 2019.
Kicked 6 goals @ 1.5 avg which is 15th overall 2020. Placing him 1st amongst midfielders. Dusty avg 1.10 is next best mid.
Adjusted its 1.8avg or 18th overall in 2019. Ahead of Dusty 1.39avg, again next best mid.
Tackles 6.5avg is 2nd per game 2020 behind Greenwood at 6.88avg.
Adjusted is 7.8avg or 2nd per game behind Steele 8.20avg in 2019.
Clearances 4.5avg which is 28th overall, ahead of Danger and Titch. Neale finished 5th at 5.47avg clearances, so roughly 1 clearance per game less.
Adjusted is 5.4avg or 30th overall behind Brad Crouch. in 2019. So in excellent company.
His Disposal Effeciency, is 72.9%, Lachie Neale 72.09% with Titch & A.Brayshaw the top mids at 75.75% in 2020.
2020 Supercoach Score (per game avg)
1st Gawn 92.57% TOG for 139.86 sc
2nd Neale 92.26% TOG for 133.74sc
3rd Rowell 77.00% TOG for 124.25sc
If he had equiv TOG that is 124.25 x 115% at 92% TOG
142.88sc
That goals per game is unsustainable. That he's better than Martin, Danger, Fyfe or anyone else who all had entire games forward last year pretty firmly supports that as the likely outcome.
Will get tagged if he plays at that level again, may handle it just fine, may not but it's a big unknown.
He played in 3 wins and wasn't very good in the one loss (or the Geelong game before injury) against two of the worst teams in the league and a third who started absolutely horrifically. I know we want to say he was the reason they won but I think you'd struggle to find many people who think the 3-1 Suns are a more accurate representation than the group that went 2-10-1 in the other 13 games is and didn't really look like winning in most games. Suns may be better but it's very hard to suggest they'll be good.
His durability is already a genuine question. Is that a one off or a sign? How does he handle the full season and the grind that goes with it? At that super premium tier that he really does need to be pushing a few bad games will quickly derail it, can he get the 170+ range without an element of surprise?
I really like Rowell but there's an awful lot of unknown around him, lot of risk and unanswered questions to deal with. Can be a fantastic pick and there's every chance he can push 110+ and his popularity offers protection but still a big ask!