Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion

Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,318
Likes
7,865
AFL Club
West Coast
Dat word count got me again!

Rucks

1. Flynn - Best JS, best midfield and showed plenty in the preseason.

2. Meek - JS is in his hands, he sure looked good enough to command the #1 spot. Scoring will be more limited as I think that Darcy will cause a genuine ruck split when he's fit. I'd have preferred Darcy play this week to confirm that. If he got destroyed round one he definitely could be out of the team by round 2.

3. Hunter - Think he actually has the most scoring potential of the three but outside Ryder staying walkabout or Marshall setback I just don't see any realistic way he's still playing when both are available and both are scheduled to return by round 3. He'd be #2 otherwise.

4. Fullarton - Not a genuine ruck role and also on a timer should make this obvious. If people were going 3 rookies and possibly even with two he does make a lot of sense forward. They need a 2nd ruck if they don't want to ruck Daniher/Hipwood and McStay doesn't offer it either and all are athletic enough to actually be able to play the 4 together, Hipwood in particular wouldn't be a fundamentally different player if he was 182cm.

5. Treacy - Suspended, Darcy looming.

Forwards

1. N. Cahill - Strong role that generally yields in the 65+ range. I don't think that Impey's role is any different at 50k more for comparison. JS is the biggest question but it sure feels like it's his spot to lose.

2. J. Rowe - Job security should be very good. Scoring potential a bit more questionable but his role was solid in preseason, albeit tough in a bad side but hard to see the Crows being that bad every week. He's a bench player though for me as scoring is going to be inconsistent most likely.

3. C. Warner - This one is tough, in the right role he's the top option, in the wrong role he's not worth the premium. Assuming he holds up on a wing though he should be among the best rookie priced players. Round 1 going to be a hard read though, if he's named wing it's at least a sign but think he could end up forward or even out of the side sadly as I really rate him.

4. M. Bergman - This one is also tough. He's ahead of Cahill if he had JS as it's the same role at a lower price. He might not even play though. If he's named he's an on-field rookie though but need Hartlett also named, basically want him in there at full strength. Textbook all or nothing, either he demands the spot in the side and averages ~70 or he's out of the side in a few weeks.

5. K. Chandler - If he was cheaper he'd be right alongside Rowe but he's 160k for a small forward playing a pretty tough role, both Rowe and Chandler played more of a natural HF role than the forward pocket that McNeil/Bruhn/Bramble played so it's not the worst of roles but he's going to need to play well. Pickett looming could also push him out but Chandler looked the goods to me and I think he plays plenty of footy. The tough part here is I'm not sold he's a guy you want on-field which makes paying the 40k premium on a Jones a tough biscuit to swallow.

6. J. Bowey - He's in the mix with their outs but job security again a major concern but scoring potential is pretty good in the role he probably plays. Another all or nothing if he's named.

7. H. Jones - He's going to play but it's a tough role for a young player. Wouldn't shock me if 3-5 are all not named though so he could definitely be in a lot of teams.

8. O. Henry - Exact same scenario as Jones but 12k more expensive. Honestly I don't think there's much difference here.

9. J. Jones - Tough role he'll be playing and the price premium do make things difficult. Also a strong side so a couple of bad games will have his spot on the line.

10 . L. Henry - All or nothing in a bad role. Think he gets the chance with all the small forward injuries and has the talent to own the position long term but if he's just ok then Walters et al push him out pretty quick. Bad role and the price are why he's this low though.

11. L. McDonald - Young KPF, I think he'll actually be one of the better in that group but he's fringe 22 right now with Buddy, allegedly, looming, in a bad side at 194k. I'd probably have him ahead of Jones at the same price but ultimately 60k is 11 odd points extra he needs to put up and I have no grounds to expect he does that.

Hopefully haven't missed anyone but if I have ask away :)

Can't say thank you enough for this! Very helpful. No doubt I'll keep tinkering with my rookies and see who gets named.

I know you've only included sub 200k players but what you reckon about P.Dow? Worth having him over any of the mids/fwds you've listed? Also how will his game be affected when ZWilliams returns next week?
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,769
Likes
26,258
AFL Club
Sydney
Can't say thank you enough for this! Very helpful. No doubt I'll keep tinkering with my rookies and see who gets named.

I know you've only included sub 200k players but what you reckon about P.Dow? Worth having him over any of the mids/fwds you've listed? Also how will his game be affected when ZWilliams returns next week?
He's a total enigma :LOL:

First game he looked a million bucks, 2nd game he looked like he has the rest of his career.

I do like him more on field than most of the cheaper guys and I'm still tossing up on him. The fear that he's the same spud he's been the past few years is genuine for me and he wouldn't surprise me if he was out of the team by round 4 but he also wouldn't surprise me if he averaged 80, he was a top junior for a reason and I still think it's in there.

Ultimately if you think positively on him and have the cash then start him, worst case he's a gateway to any other rookie, best case he could be the top rookie this year. I think if he fits without making sacrifice elsewhere then that's a pretty good equation.
 
Joined
21 Feb 2021
Messages
475
Likes
1,201
AFL Club
Collingwood
Figured I'd do my rookie rankings, to jot them down if nothing else.

Basically job security, scoring potential and price are what really matter here. If I don't list them I think they're no chance of playing. Only including the sub 200k guys as everyone already knows the story on Young, Clark, Jiath and Fantasia types. I have included Cahill in the forwards though as at 160k and genuinely relevant he's important.


Defender

1. T. Highmore - Job security is shady but he should score decently and I think he's good enough to lock down the position. Big risk here is if they go with Carlisle against any of the big forwards, so could get dropped and if Carlisle then played well could stay out. It's not a great sign he's first!

2. J. Koschitzke - Job security starts well but he's going to need to defend the position and there's enough challengers. Scoring potential as a young KPF in a bad team is not good but hopefully can kick a couple over the first few rounds and hold the spot and make some cash.

3. N. Murray - Looks set to miss round one with the ankle which rubs him out. Basically think he's equal to the more expensive trio below but his JS is lower with Talia looming. Rule him out if he misses though as don't think he gets in after this round.

4. N. Cox - Role is the best, scoring potential is the best, job security is probably the best but he's expensive and the scoring potential is linked to the role which if he doesn't perform goes out the window and it's a role that has eaten quite a few young players. Reckon Cale Morton and Kamdyn McIntosh are similar role rookies and both went 60+ but had some struggles as well.

5. J. Butts - He's right there next to Cox, JS I think is good but if he gets beaten badly there's going to be threats, think he holds the 2nd tall spot over Murray though as he's shown a bit. Ideal world he gets an intercept role for a week or two. I probably feel safer in his scoring than Cox but think Cox has more upside unless Doedee gets hurt, which sadly at this point seems a solid chance.

6. L. Jones - Just don't think he's in the side come round one. He'd have the best scoring potential as he's genuinely AFL ready but so many senior players to beat for a spot and seems to be behind Bergman as well. If a few injuries hit and he comes in he's a top tier downgrade target though and expect he does play at some point.

7. Briggs - If he does play it's as a forward which I don't think he'll do well at. I don't think he plays though. If Flynn gets injured, move him to the very top of the list.

8. Sharp - Don't think he plays. If he does, I doubt it's regularly. I do think he can score well though. If he plays he's probably actually challenging Cox for mine given the price difference.

As you can see, I've basically got two cheap guys, one with bad job security, and two guys with premiums playing. It's a bad crop, Cox I quite like the look of but he's not the kind of rookie I'd normally be chasing.

Mids (I've included forwards here as the abundance of premium rookies makes them more needed in the mids).

1. B. Campbell - The only rookie I think can score above 85 and the clear standout at this point given his role and skillset. Worth the premium for mine.

2. T. Powell - Not confirmed yet as far as I know but he looked legit last week and I think he needs to play at the AFL level from the start for his development.

3. A. Scott - His role was great in the preseason and as a mature aged guy with a few injuries to his competition keeping his door wide open he looks the goods and will get the chance. Could make a very good case over Powell.

4. E. Gulden - Role is his biggest issue but he's a class player and it wouldn't shock me if he's getting midfield minutes by round 4 as he's already ticking all the boxes as a player and the Swans midfield is, let's go with poor.

5. C. Downie - Job security is shaky and may not play round one. If he does though his scoring potential is far greater than the other names available.

6. J. Jordon - This is the tough one, he was utterly underwhelming in preseason but Goodwin obviously has a soft spot for him and his role was as good or better than any other rookie. Confirmed in round one is a nice bonus. Viney looming as a threat but there's still a couple of midfield spots in play even with him back and possession is 9/10ths!

7/8/9. E. Smith/L. Valente/S. Berry - I don't expect any of them to play round one but if they do I think their favourable roles and scoring potential in those roles would put them ahead of the next few guys, kind of rookies who would take and demand their spots in the team which obviously means good SC scores but not expecting to see them but they're all at least chances thanks to injuries/ability (or in Berry's case, teammates lack of ability).

10. L. McNeil - Don't like the role, JS is certainly going to be a weekly proposition but he's cheep!

11. T. Brockman - Job security is a concern but the role is the bigger factor. DPP and cheap put him ahead of Bruhn but basically playing similar roles. Wingard could take that role on return, especially if underdone. To be fair though I think Brockman gets a genuine chance at it.

12. T. Bruhn - Don't like the role, JS is better than McNeil but still not good in a difficult role and side that will be chasing finals. If he was cheaper he'd be a bit higher though.

13. L. Bramble - Wouldn't be surprised if he's named but I'm not expecting it right now. His role was bad in a weak side. Mostly not expecting he plays though. Next minute he gets midfield minutes and is the best rookie because Clarko :LOL:

14. A. Perkins - Don't expect he's named, don't think he scores terribly well if he is and he's expensive.

O'Brien to me doesn't have the job security at his price given Williams and Martin are to return and I think he offers little over the above guys.
Great insight, what do you think about Campbell's low fantasy scores as a junior, and how that's gonna translate into an AFL environment?
 
Joined
19 Feb 2017
Messages
2,308
Likes
7,755
AFL Club
Brisbane
@McLovin / any other lion supporters

Thoughts on Ely Smith playing round 1/ future prospects?

With doubts on Downie, getting low on decent mid rookie options ...
I'm not sure what they'll do about replacing Rayner. At least we'll know if Smith's going to play before Saturday because he hasn't debuted yet. It looks likely to be a pretty wet game as well which might give Smith a better shot. Also potentially not so good for Fullarton's chances of playing this week.
 
Joined
3 May 2017
Messages
2,684
Likes
8,886
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Dat word count got me again!

Rucks

1. Flynn - Best JS, best midfield and showed plenty in the preseason.

2. Meek - JS is in his hands, he sure looked good enough to command the #1 spot. Scoring will be more limited as I think that Darcy will cause a genuine ruck split when he's fit. I'd have preferred Darcy play this week to confirm that. If he got destroyed round one he definitely could be out of the team by round 2.

3. Hunter - Think he actually has the most scoring potential of the three but outside Ryder staying walkabout or Marshall setback I just don't see any realistic way he's still playing when both are available and both are scheduled to return by round 3. He'd be #2 otherwise.

4. Fullarton - Not a genuine ruck role and also on a timer should make this obvious. If people were going 3 rookies and possibly even with two he does make a lot of sense forward. They need a 2nd ruck if they don't want to ruck Daniher/Hipwood and McStay doesn't offer it either and all are athletic enough to actually be able to play the 4 together, Hipwood in particular wouldn't be a fundamentally different player if he was 182cm.

5. Treacy - Suspended, Darcy looming.

Forwards

1. N. Cahill - Strong role that generally yields in the 65+ range. I don't think that Impey's role is any different at 50k more for comparison. JS is the biggest question but it sure feels like it's his spot to lose.

2. J. Rowe - Job security should be very good. Scoring potential a bit more questionable but his role was solid in preseason, albeit tough in a bad side but hard to see the Crows being that bad every week. He's a bench player though for me as scoring is going to be inconsistent most likely.

3. C. Warner - This one is tough, in the right role he's the top option, in the wrong role he's not worth the premium. Assuming he holds up on a wing though he should be among the best rookie priced players. Round 1 going to be a hard read though, if he's named wing it's at least a sign but think he could end up forward or even out of the side sadly as I really rate him.

4. M. Bergman - This one is also tough. He's ahead of Cahill if he had JS as it's the same role at a lower price. He might not even play though. If he's named he's an on-field rookie though but need Hartlett also named, basically want him in there at full strength. Textbook all or nothing, either he demands the spot in the side and averages ~70 or he's out of the side in a few weeks.

5. K. Chandler - If he was cheaper he'd be right alongside Rowe but he's 160k for a small forward playing a pretty tough role, both Rowe and Chandler played more of a natural HF role than the forward pocket that McNeil/Bruhn/Bramble played so it's not the worst of roles but he's going to need to play well. Pickett looming could also push him out but Chandler looked the goods to me and I think he plays plenty of footy. The tough part here is I'm not sold he's a guy you want on-field which makes paying the 40k premium on a Jones a tough biscuit to swallow.

6. J. Bowey - He's in the mix with their outs but job security again a major concern but scoring potential is pretty good in the role he probably plays. Another all or nothing if he's named.

7. H. Jones - He's going to play but it's a tough role for a young player. Wouldn't shock me if 3-5 are all not named though so he could definitely be in a lot of teams.

8. O. Henry - Exact same scenario as Jones but 12k more expensive. Honestly I don't think there's much difference here.

9. J. Jones - Tough role he'll be playing and the price premium do make things difficult. Also a strong side so a couple of bad games will have his spot on the line.

10 . L. Henry - All or nothing in a bad role. Think he gets the chance with all the small forward injuries and has the talent to own the position long term but if he's just ok then Walters et al push him out pretty quick. Bad role and the price are why he's this low though.

11. L. McDonald - Young KPF, I think he'll actually be one of the better in that group but he's fringe 22 right now with Buddy, allegedly, looming, in a bad side at 194k. I'd probably have him ahead of Jones at the same price but ultimately 60k is 11 odd points extra he needs to put up and I have no grounds to expect he does that.

Hopefully haven't missed anyone but if I have ask away :)

Welcome thoughts on Jarvis and Chapman (if either get named). Cheers
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,769
Likes
26,258
AFL Club
Sydney
Great insight, what do you think about Campbell's low fantasy scores as a junior, and how that's gonna translate into an AFL environment?
Strikes me as a player that will score much better in the AFL where he'll hit strong leading targets and be hit with great delivery to put him in position to use his left leg. Also playing a much better role off half back compared to half forward.

Also not sure where the low fantasy scores come from, stats I've seen show he was a 91/123 guy as an underager at the under 18s in 2019 which is pretty damn solid playing as a half forward with midfield stints.

Welcome thoughts on Jarvis and Chapman (if either get named). Cheers
Jarvis did a few nice things in the first preseason game but would be very surprised if he plays barring a lot of injuries. Didn't play in the AAMI game with the Cats at pretty much full strength.

Chapman similar, he was solid in the AAMI game in the quarter or so he played but the guys ahead of him were basically Freo's best and they've got Ryan to come back into that team as well. Just can't see him playing early unless they go drastic and throw Cox or Pearce forward and even then I'd imagine that Hughes, Ryan, Cox/Pearce and Hamling is more than enough size down back. He seems to be about about 3 spots out of their best 22 down back to me.
 
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
2,790
Likes
2,985
AFL Club
Adelaide
Meek JS looks good is the ones going without grundy or co still thinking lets do this in the hope meek makes the coin
The worry is you could read into the coach’s comments this week that it’s him or Darcy, not both. And Darcy is back next week most likely.
 
Joined
24 Feb 2015
Messages
6,697
Likes
30,160
AFL Club
Sydney
TBH Treacy not playing until at least round 5 couldn't be more of a gift to SuperCoachers - I mean, anyone running rookie rucks may now have the perfect downgrade target that'll get games which was a big worry unlsee a DPP FD option was being looked at.
 
Joined
30 Jul 2014
Messages
1,640
Likes
4,608
AFL Club
Sydney
TBH Treacy not playing until at least round 5 couldn't be more of a gift to SuperCoachers - I mean, anyone running rookie rucks may now have the perfect downgrade target that'll get games which was a big worry unlsee a DPP FD option was being looked at.
Or those who are running him as a loophole get 5 free cracks at it, and when it's time to upgrade the rookie rucks, he can also be shifted to R3 to run as loophole there. Perfect.
 
Joined
11 Jan 2014
Messages
5,651
Likes
4,986
AFL Club
Essendon
Do we think that Lachie McNeil gets much of a run at it? These "mature-age" rookies always interest me more than their 18-year-old equivalents.
 
Joined
24 Feb 2015
Messages
6,697
Likes
30,160
AFL Club
Sydney
Do we think that Lachie McNeil gets much of a run at it? These "mature-age" rookies always interest me more than their 18-year-old equivalents.
I'm not sure there's much choice, certainly for me anyway where rookies do look light.

Everything really is pointing towards using the Ruck rookies but I can't bring myself to not start Grawndy but there's points in Flynn, Meek and Hunter you would think, further reducing rookie coverage around other parts of the ground but could so easilly end in disaster.

McNeil seems to be popular on the doggies board from what I see but who knows. Gut says I just gotta take him.
 
Joined
2 Feb 2015
Messages
881
Likes
1,701
AFL Club
St Kilda
I'm not sure there's much choice, certainly for me anyway where rookies do look light.

Everything really is pointing towards using the Ruck rookies but I can't bring myself to not start Grawndy but there's points in Flynn, Meek and Hunter you would think, further reducing rookie coverage around other parts of the ground but could so easilly end in disaster.

McNeil seems to be popular on the doggies board from what I see but who knows. Gut says I just gotta take him.
What about Jordan? Is he a better option?
 
Top