Strategy Round 2: Trades

[Hondo]

Great post!

Another that I remember is Zaharakis from 2016. He started with a 132 and 133. Heaps jumped on after round 2, then he averaged 82.2 for his remaining 19 matches of the season.

also St Kilda Parker went for high 80s his first two games then only went over 70 twice more over the next 17 games. A number of low scores totally squashed any price jump.
different discussion though being a rookie but the point remains.
Papley another. Averaged 106 over R1-2. Averaged 56 after that.

 

[Leroy]

Do you think hunter would be a better pick?

Paul Hunter, Lachie Hunter or Hunter Clark?

I'm going to assume Hunter Clark as he's the same price/position as Bowes...

It's hard to say if they are good picks without any context.
Presumably to bring in either Bowes or Hunter you are trading someone else out and trying to snag a cheap defensive keeper. I think there is a wealth of very safe defenders in the $500-550k range who I would pick before either of those guys. Remember, if you are trading in a player who is not a rookie/cash cow, you basically have to keep them for the year, as there are very, very few players who it is worth trading in and out again.

 

[Courtesans]

After looking at things this morning I'm thinking I might just sit on Rowell as a donut for a few weeks (still fielding 4+4+1+3 premos outside of Rowell). Longer term view on him would be to either keep him (if the knee injury isn't too bad) or use him as a stepping stone for a premo who has gotten off to a slow start.

I'm thinking the trade I need to make this week is bringing in Gulden for Brockman. I don't have Jordon either but I might have to pass on him.

Does this look like a reasonably smart strategy going forward, both in terms of using Rowell as donut for a while and bringing in Gulden as a rookie correction, or am I barking up the wrong tree?

Wouldn't be too keen on a 500k donut for a few weeks.

 

[Gruffles]

Danger/de goey out Mitchell and bowes in... thoughts

Danger>Titch sounds fine if he is out for 2-3 but I would probably hold on the DeGoey to Bowes trade.
Gives you another week to get a look at Bowes & DeGoey.

 

[Gruffles]

I'm a little more wary of Fantsasia after that game to be honest.

Only putting up 94 points after kicking 4.4 where he was basically unchecked for the entire game and not facing any sort of effective team defensive structure against probably the worst team in the competition right now probably puts a bit more of a cap on his scoring than I was expecting coming in.

I guess it depends on how you view him, but he probably needs to get his hands on the ball more and tackle a bit more to prop up the scoring from his goalkicking, if he is being picked as a potential premo stepping stone who could average something in the 80's.

Agree, I have him and I think owners really need a 120+ game out of him to get that cash generation a 270k player needs. I saw the 4.4 as a positive and a negative.

 

[Crabby Skills]

Reckon I'm gonna correct a mistake and get rid of a mid-pricer in Harmes.

Likely to J. Clark or L. Young... think that's the safer option than a Bowes or H. Clark which I can juust afford.

 

[Gruffles]

Great post!

Another that I remember is Zaharakis from 2016. He started with a 132 and 133. Heaps jumped on after round 2, then he averaged 82.2 for his remaining 19 matches of the season.

That's the stuff of SC nightmares

 

[BC]

Always fun reading this thread after Round 1 each year. Months of planning and tinkering for everyone to lose their minds and make rash decisions. Why pick the Daniher, Fantasia, Duggan etc types in the first place only to turn around and get rid of them after 1 game?

As a Daniher owner myself I know I'm strapped in for the roller-coaster. Was just hoping the bigger scores come early on

 

[inwhiterooms]

For all those getting excited about mid priced players.. a word of caution.

Tom Liberatore in 2019.

After a few rounds he was the must have player:

View attachment 27508

scoring.. making money.. the dream! But then things turned...

View attachment 27509

Finished the year averaging 82.4 from 15 games and +27k on his starting price.

If you had started him, brilliant. You have no issue upgrading him as the tide turns.. 1 trade and a little cash netted you a fallen premium.

But for anyone who traded him in, either made the same or less cash (if you'd waited a week too long) and used 2 trades to turn him into a premium. Yuck.

Obviously only one example and there are probably countless that paint the opposite picture.. but sometimes we SCers get rose coloured glasses about these things so some perspective never hurts!

I fell for this trap. Taught me a thing or two about trading into guys in this awkward price range, completely agree with everything you've said.

 

[Grundogging]

Wouldn't be too keen on a 500k donut for a few weeks.

Not even if it gives you a bit of breathing room to consider which premo to bring in?

 

[Courtesans]

Not even if it gives you a bit of breathing room to consider which premo to bring in?

Personally, no.

 

[Chumpion]

I fell for this trap. Taught me a thing or two about trading into guys in this awkward price range, completely agree with everything you've said.

Reckon it's a SC right of passage.. you never believe it's a thing until you actually get sucked in and burned by it!

(for the record, I also got stung by Libba which is why that example was clear in my mind!)

 

[francis]

No trades for me this round, but I feel like I'd need 3 or 4 for the next one.

 

[pizza safety]

For all those getting excited about mid priced players.. a word of caution.

Tom Liberatore in 2019.

After a few rounds he was the must have player:

View attachment 27508

scoring.. making money.. the dream! But then things turned...

View attachment 27509

Finished the year averaging 82.4 from 15 games and +27k on his starting price.

If you had started him, brilliant. You have no issue upgrading him as the tide turns.. 1 trade and a little cash netted you a fallen premium.

But for anyone who traded him in, either made the same or less cash (if you'd waited a week too long) and used 2 trades to turn him into a premium. Yuck.

Obviously only one example and there are probably countless that paint the opposite picture.. but sometimes we SCers get rose coloured glasses about these things so some perspective never hurts!

If people had of traded Steele to Libba after round 2, (I did after round 3, which was not quite good - about an average trade) that would have been a very good trade. You would have pocketed 212K from the first trade, and been able to upgrade Libba to Macrae once his scoring dropped off with a fair bit of money in the bank to make the move. You would have needed to get rid of Steele in any case eventually, which would have required two trades.

It's context dependent of course, but I've seen a benefit in downgrading an underperforming premium early to a mid-priced money maker, it's probably important you get on them before their first price rise. I think anyone not doing well as a speculative mid premium > Libba at round 2 would have been a good move, it also allows you to make a quick upgrade and get an expensive player you started without quickly.

 

[Herbie66]

If Danger gets 2+ I think Danger - > Heeney is the right move for me to make (was keen on Heeney all preseason).

Gives some $$$ if I need to correct one of Hunter/Meek in Round 3 to Hickey/Martin.

Hoping McNeil gets another game.

Have another look at Jordon & Warner.

Lots and lots of shiny new toys performed in Round 1 , some could work , some could be a trap.

 

[Chumpion]

If people had of traded Steele to Libba after round 2, (I did after round 3, which was not quite good - about an average trade) that would have been a very good trade. You would have pocketed 212K from the first trade, and been able to upgrade Libba to Macrae once his scoring dropped off with a fair bit of money in the bank to make the move. You would have needed to get rid of Steele in any case eventually, which would have required two trades.

It's context dependent of course, but I've seen a benefit in downgrading an underperforming premium early to a mid-priced money maker, it's probably important you get on them before their first price rise.

Timing and context is definitely important, but one of the key part is that someone who started the mid price player is much more likely to trade them out at a good moment because they are less invested. If you use a trade to bring them in and then a trade to upgrade them 2-3 weeks later there is a fair mental hurdle that's hard to overcome. Particularly when it's a guy who has scored well.. often by the time the writing is on the wall they've lost a bit of the cash they'd made and it becomes a bit of a nightmare scenario.

I think I remember seeing Rowsus say something to that effect with stepping stone players (and this is very much paraphrased so apologies to the great man in advance).. to make the cash they have to score well.. but if they're scoring that well, are you really going to trade them? Then if the bubble bursts.. the benefit you'd earned is gone and you're stuck in no man's land.

 

[<actus]

Always fun reading this thread after Round 1 each year. Months of planning and tinkering for everyone to lose their minds and make rash decisions. Why pick the Daniher, Fantasia, Duggan etc types in the first place only to turn around and get rid of them after 1 game?

I'll be rage trading premo x who scored badly for that mid pricer y that did well this week (who I had in my team all preseason obviously!).

I think these post are a bit cruel - almost like shaming people for wanting to change their teams. News flash - trading after R1 of SuperCoach is not some colossal failure.

Some people didn’t get to watch any preseason games so R1 is the first time they’ve seen the players they’ve picked in action.

Also players get played out of position etc. in preseason games. You can be sure about role until teams are playing for premiership points.

Add to that the fact that some teams might need two trades for rookie corrections next week so there might be no opportunity for a primo or mid price correction before prices change.

Trust your eyes and your gut. If you’re 90% sure you’ve made a stuff up with your starting team - correct it - and don’t let these nay sayers put you off.

 

[Shannon]

 

[Shannon]

Can't believe Grundy is the 3rd most traded out player already, surely you wait till after his game v Carlton (Pittonet) before making a call?

 

[Chumpion]

Can't believe Grundy is the 3rd most traded out player already, surely you wait till after his game v Carlton (Pittonet) before making a call?

I'm always weary of the early week trade stats.. most of the serious players are waiting for teams or news across the week. These are likely the "set & forget on a monday morning" types with a few "I'll reverse them later in the week" folk for good measure.