Strategy Round 2: Trades

[Darkie]

Titch seems like a particularly popular replacement for Danger. I’m considering Oliver.

Is the preference for Titch because he’s cheaper than Danger (ie everyone can afford Titch - but not everyone can afford Oliver), because people already have Oliver, or because we think Titch is a better option?

I had Oliver ahead of Titch before R1, and probably can’t see why I would switch that order after they scored 122 and 135? Their DT scores were almost identical (107 vs 106).

 

[Gruffles]

There's an awful lot of jumping at shadows and chasing lost points in this thread.

You shouldn't be trading this week unless you fit in one of two scenarios...

1. You have Rowell and/or Danger. 3 weeks is right on the edge of trade or hold, if you have a rookie to loop this week (Dow for example) then you should at least give them a chance to turn it into 2 weeks missed and no trade. Rowell has to go but even he could have loophole value this week.

2. You've got 3+ glaring issues that need fixing over the next two weeks. Say for example you're missing Flynn, Gulden and Rowe (somehow?).

Think of the logic of trading this week...

You're essentially rejecting the two weeks and all additional information you used to pick player X over player Y so that you can now trade in player Y on the basis of one weeks information. I just can't see what could happen in that one week that is so significant that you reject all of your previous research and lock in a trade this week.

This kind of desire to force trades is why everyone should have an AFL Fantasy team on the side to satiate their deepest and darkest desires!

Should have read this before posting my above.

 

[The Banker]

Titch seems like a particularly popular replacement for Danger. I’m considering Oliver.

Is the preference for Titch because he’s cheaper than Danger (ie everyone can afford Titch - but not everyone can afford Oliver), because people already have Oliver, or because we think Titch is a better option?

I had Oliver ahead of Titch before R1, and probably can’t see why I would switch that order after they scored 122 and 135? Their DT scores were almost identical (107 vs 106).

I think for the most part it would come down to lack of funds to reach the higher priced options. Both are keepers, Titch probably represents a little more value than Oliver at their prices, but both look great picks season long.

 

[Gruffles]

Titch seems like a particularly popular replacement for Danger. I’m considering Oliver.

Is the preference for Titch because he’s cheaper than Danger (ie everyone can afford Titch - but not everyone can afford Oliver), because people already have Oliver, or because we think Titch is a better option?

I had Oliver ahead of Titch before R1, and probably can’t see why I would switch that order after they scored 122 and 135? Their DT scores were almost identical (107 vs 106).

I think you nailed it.
More people started Ollie than Titch so have him already, then Titch impresses with fitness (39 possies) + 5 tackles (shoulders ok)
As you have said price swaps are pretty much level and not everyone has the extra 40k.

 

[Lgndhen23]

do we belive that dusty will be more consistent this year, or did he just rock up for the big match last week

contemplating whether i grab him for danger or not

 

[Gruffles]

I am planning to hold Dangerfield. I see a lot of people chasing last weeks points. Better for me to have another weeks info on all these players and get a better idea if it was a one week peak or a genuine lift in scoring for Mills, Walsh, Mitchell etc.
Not going for outright. Trades are gold.

You can probably safely assume Mitchells game wasn't a glitch and no one is surprised Walsh came out and played like he did (leading on from last year) Mills the only one with a slight question mark of those 3 for mine.

 

[Chumpion]

Titch seems like a particularly popular replacement for Danger. I’m considering Oliver.

Is the preference for Titch because he’s cheaper than Danger (ie everyone can afford Titch - but not everyone can afford Oliver), because people already have Oliver, or because we think Titch is a better option?

I had Oliver ahead of Titch before R1, and probably can’t see why I would switch that order after they scored 122 and 135? Their DT scores were almost identical (107 vs 106).

It surely has to be the cash factor, but even then I’m surprised he’s shaping up as such a stand out popular choice.

He was on 39 points at half time and if the hawks don’t storm back into that game and win he probably finishes under 100 points (even if he still finds a lot of the ball in the second half). I know that’s a weird statement because they did storm back and all but I can’t help but feel his score was artificially inflated a fair bit.

I’d also want to see more evidence that his kick:handball ratio can stack up under the new faster style of footy we are seeing, or shifts to the opposite way around.

Not to say he’s not potentially a great choice and will still hit a nice ~110-115 average.. just surprised he’s as popular as he is off that one game.

 

[mike89]

do we belive that dusty will be more consistent this year, or did he just rock up for the big match last week

contemplating whether i grab him for danger or not

I've seen a lot of comments along this line in the past week - does anyone have data on Dusty's 2017 season? If even one of the great seasons of all time is peppered with inconsistency I would find it hard to believe it would change now...

 

[Gruffles]

I'll be waiting this week to see how he plays. Not trading Rowell just yet. I need to know that the player I bring in will have a really solid chance of being a season keeper, not a stepping stone to just burn another trade.

Seems risky, would be more beneficial if you could identify a good replacement and get the points on the board.

 

[Chumpion]

I've seen a lot of comments along this line in the past week - does anyone have data on Dusty's 2017 season? If even one of the great seasons of all time is peppered with inconsistency I would find it hard to believe it would change now...

Played all 22 games for only 5 scores under 100 (54, 74, 87, 92, 93).. averaged 119.3 and had 7 scores over 140. We can only pray he can get close to that level again of consistency again this year!

 

[nicohighscore]

I've seen a lot of comments along this line in the past week - does anyone have data on Dusty's 2017 season? If even one of the great seasons of all time is peppered with inconsistency I would find it hard to believe it would change now...

I am a big believer, especially after the interview he gava a couple of weeks ago ...

 

[Darkie]

It surely has to be the cash factor, but even then I’m surprised he’s shaping up as such a stand out popular choice.

He was on 39 points at half time and if the hawks don’t storm back into that game and win he probably finishes under 100 points (even if he still finds a lot of the ball in the second half). I know that’s a weird statement because they did storm back and all but I can’t help but feel his score was artificially inflated a fair bit.

I’d also want to see more evidence that his kick:handball ratio can stack up under the new faster style of footy we are seeing, or shifts to the opposite way around.

Not to say he’s not potentially a great choice and will still hit a nice ~110-115 average.. just surprised he’s as popular as he is off that one game.

Thanks @The Banker @Gruffles @Chumpion - that’s helpful. I think Titch is a pretty good option too, I was mainly surprised at how much of an edge he seemed to have in popularity vs Oliver.

Was partly checking that it wasn’t chasing last week’s points ... especially if it was only 13 of them!

I think the other factors probably go a long way to explaining it though.

 

[Rumbler]

Seems risky, would be more beneficial if you could identify a good replacement and get the points on the board.

Yea agreed, it's a risk for my overall ranking but I'm also in a H2H league which I'm prioritising over overall rank. I just feel the need to wait a week more and analyse another round's worth of scores from players which I can afford. It might not make too much of a difference but it can give me a better chance of being ready for H2H matchups starting in week 3.

Don’t think 1 round of data is going to clear that up with Williams. He’s a proven defensive scorer. He’s a proven walking injury. The midfield time gives him the best chance to post career high numbers. The forward time, well that may slightly negate the ceiling of his scoring. I just think you will never be in the clear with a pick like Williams, it’s the value he provides that makes the risk worthwhile, something waiting a week doesn’t really help with, unless of course he picks up an injury tomorrow night.

My issue with Williams is there's probably 10-12 defenders that average higher than him, whats the actual benefit of the selection? Lloyd,Laird,Ryan,Whitfield,Mills,Short,Daniel,Ridley,Stewart,Maynard and May in no particular order I'd back to beat him and you could make a strong case for a couple others.

All of those guys are priced significantly higher than him. For mine, it’s a good price to pay for an unknown ceiling. Hard to see him going backwards with significant mid time. Where he sits in amongst all those guys, time will tell, but I think he could outrank the majority in points per dollar.

The two of you have made great points both for and against trading in ZWilliams before this round. And that is why I want to wait and see!
I must admit I had ZWilliams in my starting team but took him out due to his suspension. I understand he's priced below what his value could actually be when he's fit and firing. However his history of missing games does have me worried. Really interested to see he goes tomorrow night (role, fitness etc.).

 

[randomcliche]

Thanks @The Banker @Gruffles @Chumpion - that’s helpful. I think Titch is a pretty good option too, I was mainly surprised at how much of an edge he seemed to have in popularity vs Oliver.

Was partly checking that it wasn’t chasing last week’s points ... especially if it was only 13 of them!

I think the other factors probably go a long way to explaining it though.

I switched in Macrae, out Oliver after G1R1 because I don't think rules suit Oliver. Titch to my eye is better balanced in scoring from open and contested play. Still looking to get Oliver, just not at that price.

 

[Under The Dome]

do we belive that dusty will be more consistent this year, or did he just rock up for the big match last week

contemplating whether i grab him for danger or not

Hopefully it wasn't just a one off midfield performance with Cotchin out.

 

[randomcliche]

Bit of a change for me with Harmes out for 6 weeks.

Harmes to Hayden Young and Rowell to Walsh. Simple!

I like these. It keeps your structure in terms of cash cow MPMs and potential keeper MPMs. Not looking to madly mess my structure either.

Danger to Macrae likely for me.

Would anyone choose Zerrett or Titch over Macrae with the benefit of another week of info....?

With the extra week of info, I feel very comfortable with starting Zmerret and Macrae, but Macrae is the one who will get the C/VC most often, then Titch (if Danger becomes him, likely), then ZM atm.

I am in a fortunate position to have most of the rookies covered and I am contemplating the one trade this week.

Duggan out for Young.

Leaves me over 230k in the bank which will enable me to move in a few different directions next round if I need to. Have had some good advice earlier in this thread but I am still undecided


One sticking point for me is that I feel after last seasons trade bonanza (more trades in less rounds) a lot of people are underestimating the value of trades. People with Danger and Rowell are really forced into trades but it seems that more players than usual are comfortable using 2 trades in round 1.

Am I reading this correctly..... are people more open to using two trades this year compared with 2019 and earlier

Set yourself a trades budget. Mine is 22x upgrades/downgrades. 2x week 2 corrections, 5x injury/suspension, 1x bye round slingshot. The last two categories are a bit fungible, I.e. if you've used 5 H1 injury trades, just gotta suck up the bye rounds as they fall.

If a trade doesn't make that list then don't do it.

Yup there is no sideways premium trades, but after next week, if Duggan is still stuck, flick him. It's what R2 is for.

 

[Manikato1]

do we belive that dusty will be more consistent this year, or did he just rock up for the big match last week

contemplating whether i grab him for danger or not

No. Since the 2017 season his starts have been mixed. 2020 4 of first 6 games sub 95, 2019 3 of 6, 2018 3 of 6. He also goes missing in streaks for 4 games in a row or maybe 1 ton in 5 or 6 games. This gives you the opportunity to pick him up at a reasonable price at least once or twice during the season. He often "wakes up" in the second half of the season when things get serious. Mind you when he is on he can go really big and is fabulous to watch.

 

[Tranterpants]

Yeah McGrath looked very good and well suited to the openness, I think he will be a good pick. I just didn't look at him too hard because he already took a big step forward and I don't tend to pick those ones the following year anymore. He definitely passes the eye test as someone with huge talent who can go elite. He likely would have still got a number of his points from stoppages last season, but has enough dynamism in his game to score in a number of ways.

Went back to support a fair bit last year, but not sure he did on the weekend with Hepp back there?! Thought?!

 

[Ironhawk]

From hoping for no trades at the start of the topic to 2 trades now. Pretty much locking in the following:

Rowell to Dusty
Henry to Jordon

I think I have at least 2 likely correction trades needed next round, and I don't see Henry playing again any time soon. Jordon is the main rookie I have missed, so that trade was easy (banking on Jordon getting named...). Most mids in that price are a bit risky, (although there are a few I like the look of) and I didn't particularly want to swing one of my DPPs forward to cover the other trade, so Dusty got the gig for the injured Rowell. My team is risky enough already, and yes I know Dusty is up and down too - everything seems to point to him having a good year though.

I'll see if I feel the same way after work...

 

[BomberArmy]

Titch isn't a great kick and watching last week a lot of them were dump kicks forward and he was almost 'lucky' someone got on the end of them, he's definitely not a penetrating kick. He does know how to find the footy though. I like a few others ahead of him so am happy to bet against him being a top 10 mid.