Analysis 2021: The Lachie Neale Conundrum

[Peter56]

Thanks @Rowsus for the detailed analysis but FYI the tweet below (probably nothing and at least first game of the round):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376786605550096384

On channel 9 news last night they said that Neale was sore but did not elaborate.

 

[Peter56]

If greenwood is named for the pies this week (which is unlikely, but possible)

i would definately get rid of neale, another low score would just destroy his price

My thoughts completely. I am fortunate to have all the right rookies so if Greenwood is named at 6-30 tonight it will be a trade Dunkley for me.
I think we are lucky that Brisbane is the first match off the rank.

 

[Socrates2]

Chris Fagan said this morning that Neale got tagged in half his games last year.

Edit: for some reason SCS 's regards F-a-g-a-n as a swear word?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Chris ***an said this morning that Neale got tagged in half his games last year.

Is the inference, therefore, that the Tag is not responsible for him playing badly and it is due to "other" reasons?

 

[Socrates2]

Is the inference, therefore, that the Tag is not responsible for him playing badly and it is due to "other" reasons?

Yes, I think so.
I heard Neale say he was as fit as he's ever been before the season started, but now Fagan is saying he is underdone.
Having said that , it was a hard team tag by Geelong and I don't see every team tagging him like that.
The umps will give him more off the ball free kicks if it happens again this week.
The unknown is how badly he is banged up/injured.
Edit: F-agan is not a swear word SCS's! Lol

 

[Herbie66]

If greenwood is named for the pies this week (which is unlikely, but possible)

i would definately get rid of neale, another low score would just destroy his price

Pendlebury may just "baby sit" him at stoppages or T Brown gets the role

 

[Philzsay]

Chris ***an said this morning that Neale got tagged in half his games last year.

Edit: for some reason SCS 's regards F-a-g-a-n as a swear word?

Fyi re Faagan it is the software that blocks this word and has been impossible to overwrite it. So yeah just type F*gan or whatever to avoid it, all good.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Wonderful write up and a wonderful conundrum to be on the other side off.
Another 70 would be lovely, be able to sideways Gulden to him eventually

 

[BarginHunter]

Are we gonna give Neale the 3 strikes your out chance?

 

[toxic]

Sharp dropped

 

[Courtesans]

I hate doing this but Neale to Oliver. Too much doubt about his fitness not to mention a huge drop in cash which can be used later. Worth the trade probably.

 

[The Saltshaker]

Neale > Campbell, Sharp via dpp or Jones > Warner

Ive had a bad start, so correcting getting 2 best fwdd rookies i can.

Keeping Dow (has been robbed 20sc last 2 games, when TOG returns to 78 or 80% should go 80s and Cripps got in most training for year 10 day break, expect him to build from here

 

[Beg2Differ]

Always interested to read your insights @Rowsus. I have this conundrum and feel confident that which ever way I jump, it will be the wrong way.

The one query I have is do you see this situation any differently than cashing in an overpriced premium with a high BE mid season which I know you are fond of? Can’t see a lot of difference myself.

 

[<actus]

If he's got a back injury, he's cactus. No one would let that cat out of the bag though.

No, I’m cactus.

 

[freowho]

No, I’m cactus.

No, I’m cactus.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I hate doing this but Neale to Oliver. Too much doubt about his fitness not to mention a huge drop in cash which can be used later. Worth the trade probably.

Anyone thinking MDB tag? has he lost his mojo. Doesn't seem to start as a tagger, think he went to Steele H2 and Brayshaw Q4.

 

[Philzsay]

Time to get a good night's rest. Got a huge decision to make tomorrow.

 

[Rowsus]

Always interested to read your insights @Rowsus. I have this conundrum and feel confident that which ever way I jump, it will be the wrong way.

The one query I have is do you see this situation any differently than cashing in an overpriced premium with a high BE mid season which I know you are fond of? Can’t see a lot of difference myself.

I must admit, I hadn't thought of it in those terms.
I've given it consideration, and the main difference is, that usually when I cash in the overpriced Prem, I'm turning the overpriced Prem plus a fat Cow or Stepping Stone, into 2 Prems. That's something I'm not able to do in this case, and if you can't turn the overpriced Prem into 2 Keepers, it's probably not worth it.
I also prefer to do it over the byes, and incorporate a slingshot move into the deal, but that isn't necessarily an imperative.

 

[sven_inc]

For me, it really boils down to how quickly Neale can overcome his current injuries. There's no doubt in my mind that he's a 115-120+ point scorer this year if fit, and ultimately a must have. I have him, and would expect to need him at the end of the year.

To trade or keep is clearly a big decision.

If you keep him he'll most likely underperform - quite a lot potentially if the first 2 rounds are anything to go by. My guess would be 2-4 weeks if his back/calf have a chance to get better while playing.

If you trade him, there's literally no garauntee you'll be able to get him back again. The reason being is that all this is happening at the start of the year. He might come good just before upgrade season which makes it tough to force a trade for him. Secondly, the only reason we'd know to trade him in would be on the back of some elite scoring again. Its always tough to have everything perfectly aligned to me that trade in happen. And by the time you can get him in will his price suddenly be out of reach? Its never a perfect science at the best of times.

For me its ultimately an educated guess on how long he'll be hampered for. If its relatively short then it'll be a painful hold for a few weeks. If its too long, then it'll be a nervous wait to try and get him back again.

Worst case his injuries just persist and he's a dud all year...

 

[Rowsus]

For me, it really boils down to how quickly Neale can overcome his current injuries. There's no doubt in my mind that he's a 115-120+ point scorer this year if fit, and ultimately a must have. I have him, and would expect to need him at the end of the year.

To trade or keep is clearly a big decision.

If you keep him he'll most likely underperform - quite a lot potentially if the first 2 rounds are anything to go by. My guess would be 2-4 weeks if his back/calf have a chance to get better while playing.

If you trade him, there's literally no garauntee you'll be able to get him back again. The reason being is that all this is happening at the start of the year. He might come good just before upgrade season which makes it tough to force a trade for him. Secondly, the only reason we'd know to trade him in would be on the back of some elite scoring again. Its always tough to have everything perfectly aligned to me that trade in happen. And by the time you can get him in will his price suddenly be out of reach? Its never a perfect science at the best of times.

For me its ultimately an educated guess on how long he'll be hampered for. If its relatively short then it'll be a painful hold for a few weeks. If its too long, then it'll be a nervous wait to try and get him back again.

Worst case his injuries just persist and he's a dud all year...

Yeah, but what I want to know is, are you holding or trading?!
You are one of the Coaches on here that I really value your opinion!