Discussion 2021 Round 5: Teams & In Game Discussion

[Shannon]

To counter the counter -



How much of this is actually true?

Round 1 - Kick-ins (play on): Caleb Daniel 6 (5), Bailey Dale 3 (3), Taylor Duryea 1 (1), Bailey Williams 1 (1).
Round 2 - Kick-ins (play on): Caleb Daniel 5 (5), Taylor Duryea 2 (2), Bailey Dale 1 (0), Bailey Williams 1 (1).
Round 3 - Kick-ins (play on): Claeb Daniel 6 (5), Taylor Duryea 2 (1), Bailey Dale 1 (1).
Round 4 - Kick-ins (play on): Bailey Dale 2 (2), Caleb Daniel 2 (1), Alex Keath 1 (0), Taylor Duryea 1 (1).

So Daniel has lead the kick in stats for every game bar last week where Brisbane only kicked 6 behinds for a game.



Won't deny this but we've also seen that Dogs still won without an issue regardless of whether Daniel had any input into the game or not so teams might not see the value in tagging someone if it doesn't help them actually win a game. I'd also like to see whether he can bounce back from it as I'm sure teams have tried in the past.




I suppose I'm banking on Kosi coming in for Lewis who will miss a game through suspension and I also only put in a 35 point score to keep expectations very low. Would also say if you've got 3 of Highmore/Sharp/Kosi you're probably still better off long term moving them into something over fixing a 1 week problem as the above problem won't suddenly disappear.



Again, I think this is an over-reaction for mine.

Last two years Daniel has put up a 99 and a 101 average. Currently there are 13 players with a average of 99+, of that 13 I'd remove Lever, Hartley, Jiath as guys that are unproven/not going to maintain it. Pretty happy to put Houli in that bracket too just due to age and inability to play an entire season.

Currently has a group of 9 players - Ridley, Bowes, Houston, Mills, Short, Lloyd, Laird, Rich and Doch. Bowes, Houston and Rich have never hit these numbers before, Rich at 31 I see being 90s odd but not the 100+ so you're taking a bit of a risk/gamble on the other 2.

Now that's not to say others that currently not within this 99 bracket won't push up to it, but there isn't a massive list/or at least a massive list going well over this 100 mark.

Back to Daniel:
Round 1 he scored 107 - happy days.
Round 2 he scored 66 - 26 touches at 80% disposal efficiency, I can't help but feel that's a pretty unfortunate score.
Round 3 he scored 96 - That's a tick.

So in his first 3 rounds he's averaged 28 touches, 16 kicks, a touch under 5 marks and a bit over 2 tackles a game. What is there not to like about that stat line? I don't think anyone is honestly saying he's not showing the same signs he's shown in the previous couple of years or not in an expected role. The panic is purely from a single game where he's had a mare and had absolutely no impact on the game. Now I get why that would be a huge off-put and a worry but I think he's earned himself enough credits over the past couple of seasons to warrant sticking with him after one ****house performance.

I'm not in the 100% must keep boat but unless I'm somehow using his cash to turn into a guy like Gawn, I'm going to stick with him. Moving him over to a guy who might average 10 more points a season which will cost a trade and cash whilst I have plenty of other areas to better improve my average points gained per round, I just don't see this as the right move.

Where did you get that from dyl?

From AFL stats pro :-




Good discussion as always mate, really depends on your team's situation/structure in making your decision in the end.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Kudos to the AFL site, their stat's pro really has improved out of sight.

 

[Blaze]

On the daniel debate I can see plenty of reasons to keep him HOWEVER if you are going hard for overall rank like most of us are...this is really the final week to correct before the more traditional upgrade/downgrade season commences with fattened cows. With that in mind i am inclined to strengthen my pitiful midfield with Steele or Oliver this week (or if in some horrible scenario Flynn/Meek aren't named - restructure to Grundy) . The Daniel cash gives me the opportunity to do this potential making me 100 on field points this week plus the flexibility to look at other defensive options other than locking in Daniel for the rest of the year.

Trades Scmades haha

 

[AngryAnt]

On the daniel debate I can see plenty of reasons to keep him HOWEVER if you are going hard for overall rank like most of us are...this is really the final week to correct before the more traditional upgrade/downgrade season commences with fattened cows. With that in mind i am inclined to strengthen my pitiful midfield with Steele or Oliver this week (or if in some horrible scenario Flynn/Meek aren't named - restructure to Grundy) . The Daniel cash gives me the opportunity to do this potential making me 100 on field points this week plus the flexibility to look at other defensive options other than locking in Daniel for the rest of the year.

Trades Scmades haha

I agree, go hard with trades, we have Ziebell, Impey types that could end up as keepers, at the very least potentially they will need only one trade to upgrade if it goes pear shaped. Daniel missing and his concerns with his role are more than justified to get rid of him.

 

[Bomber18]

It will be interesting to see if anyone trades Daniel back in when he becomes big value at 410-420k in a few weeks

 

[Blaze]

It will be interesting to see if anyone trades Daniel back in when he becomes big value at 410-420k in a few weeks

Even if I do he will never beat my Fyfe in/out record! (I can't recall if he was in 4 or 5 of my trades one year but it was a lot haha)

 

[Ironhawk]

On the daniel debate I can see plenty of reasons to keep him HOWEVER if you are going hard for overall rank like most of us are...this is really the final week to correct before the more traditional upgrade/downgrade season commences with fattened cows. With that in mind i am inclined to strengthen my pitiful midfield with Steele or Oliver this week (or if in some horrible scenario Flynn/Meek aren't named - restructure to Grundy) . The Daniel cash gives me the opportunity to do this potential making me 100 on field points this week plus the flexibility to look at other defensive options other than locking in Daniel for the rest of the year.

Trades Scmades haha

You might be better to wait a week on Oliver with a BE of 161. Should be below $600K next week (or close to) before his 67 drops out, which could be as cheap as you will get him all year. Depends on the rest of your team of course.

 

[OnTopBar]

It will be interesting to see if anyone trades Daniel back in when he becomes big value at 410-420k in a few weeks

Footywire has him at 400k in 2 weeks, he's definitely on my radar. As is Brayshaw who is forecast to be around 450k about the same time. Of course I'd want to see a return to form but it's these types that I'm relying on to fill D6 and M7-8. With a little cash ITB they'll only be 1 move upgrades.

*Edit...add Steven May to that list, 360k at the byes

 

[Blossoms]

It will be interesting to see if anyone trades Daniel back in when he becomes big value at 410-420k in a few weeks

I think people are trading because they believe that soft receiver role he has had is over. I mean, do they really want him in that role with zero defensive pressure? Wouldn't surprise me if he comes back and plays forward. It's going to be interesting for the holders.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382507260891459588

 

[Ben's Beasts]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382512615251869700

 

[AngryAnt]

You might be better to wait a week on Oliver with a BE of 161. Should be below $600K next week (or close to) before his 67 drops out, which could be as cheap as you will get him all year. Depends on the rest of your team of course.

Hoping that Worpel runs with him this week, he totally shut down Brayshaw last round.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382465454241763331

 

[AngryAnt]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382507260891459588

50% tog for a score of 30 again?

 

[Ironhawk]

Hoping that Worpel runs with him this week, he totally shut down Brayshaw last round.

It's possible. Either way, he should have at least one more price drop. I think O'Connor was tagging Oliver for at least a while last week, yet Oliver still scored 130.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382505585770340352

 

[Crowls]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382505585770340352

Not likely to happen but Tex parked in the garage this week would offer some solace to those who didn't go the Lone Star route!!

 

[Shannon]

Hoping that Worpel runs with him this week, he totally shut down Brayshaw last round.

Oliver handled the O'Connor tag very well last week scoring 130 - I was worried after what De Boer did to him the previous week & what O'Connor did to Neale but Clarry found a way. Didn't see the game myself so interested if the dees had some tactics they used in preparing for O'Connor tagging him (like players blocking O'Connor etc) which they can use in the future if other teams try to tag Oliver.

 

[McLovin]

Back to Daniel:
Round 1 he scored 107 - happy days.
Round 2 he scored 66 - 26 touches at 80% disposal efficiency, I can't help but feel that's a pretty unfortunate score.
Round 3 he scored 96 - That's a tick.

So in his first 3 rounds he's averaged 28 touches, 16 kicks, a touch under 5 marks and a bit over 2 tackles a game. What is there not to like about that stat line? I don't think anyone is honestly saying he's not showing the same signs he's shown in the previous couple of years or not in an expected role. The panic is purely from a single game where he's had a mare and had absolutely no impact on the game. Now I get why that would be a huge off-put and a worry but I think he's earned himself enough credits over the past couple of seasons to warrant sticking with him after one ****house performance.

I'm not in the 100% must keep boat but unless I'm somehow using his cash to turn into a guy like Gawn, I'm going to stick with him. Moving him over to a guy who might average 10 more points a season which will cost a trade and cash whilst I have plenty of other areas to better improve my average points gained per round, I just don't see this as the right move.

Your argument makes perfect sense just looking at the numbers out of context. Having watched Daniel closely, I think you're wrong to say it's just been one concerning game.

Here's my take on his first 3 weeks:
Round 1- Daniel scored well and was probably over-scored, largely cheap touches and minimal impact on the game.
Round 2- There was nothing unfortunate about that score, it was entirely reflective of Daniel's game. West Coast's pressure went up a notch in the 2nd half and Daniel fell apart, ran around in circles in the back pocket putting team mates under pressure and dumped it long to the opposition.
Round 3- Passable score, albeit a missed opportunity for a huge score in one of the biggest thrashings we've seen in a while.

I'm not sure about the degree to which the Bulldogs really need Daniel the way they're playing. He's not someone you can just play as one option off half back. Due to his deficiencies in other areas he has to be THE option as he has been over the last couple of seasons. That hasn't been the case at all this season, his teammates simply aren't looking to feed him the ball as much as they have in the past. Williams with support from Dale and Duryea has been very good off half back, and that's with Crozier still to come back in as well. If this wasn't a Bevo coached team I'd say Daniel has to evolve or he'll be out of the side, because he's not someone you can afford to carry defensively if you're looking to win a flag.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1382507260891459588

But will he play > 50% TOG ?