Discussion 2022 AFL: Practice Matches & AAMI Community Series Discussion
- Thread starter RIAL
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I think I've narrowed my forward "premium" picks to Dunkley, Martin, Treloar, Sidebottom, Heeney, Butters, Bailey and Thomas at this point, Weller maybe just ever so slightly alive if Luko plays forward and he dominates again. To be honest my very first draft had Butters, Heeney and Thomas and nothing has really changed on them in fact if anything they've firmed as picks, De Goey was the other in that who is now long gone 
The big question is if I pick 3 or 4, probably depends if the 3 leads to an Oliver type which definitely requires a lot of good looking cheap rookies!
The big question is if I pick 3 or 4, probably depends if the 3 leads to an Oliver type which definitely requires a lot of good looking cheap rookies!
I think I've narrowed my forward "premium" picks to Dunkley, Martin, Treloar, Sidebottom, Heeney, Butters, Bailey and Thomas at this point, Weller maybe just ever so slightly alive if Luko plays forward and he dominates again. To be honest my very first draft had Butters, Heeney and Thomas and nothing has really changed on them in fact if anything they've firmed as picks, De Goey was the other in that who is now long gone
The big question is if I pick 3 or 4, probably depends if the 3 leads to an Oliver type which definitely requires a lot of good looking cheap rookies!
The big question is if I pick 3 or 4, probably depends if the 3 leads to an Oliver type which definitely requires a lot of good looking cheap rookies!
I think I've narrowed my forward "premium" picks to Dunkley, Martin, Treloar, Sidebottom, Heeney, Butters, Bailey and Thomas at this point, Weller maybe just ever so slightly alive if Luko plays forward and he dominates again. To be honest my very first draft had Butters, Heeney and Thomas and nothing has really changed on them in fact if anything they've firmed as picks, De Goey was the other in that who is now long gone
The big question is if I pick 3 or 4, probably depends if the 3 leads to an Oliver type which definitely requires a lot of good looking cheap rookies!
The big question is if I pick 3 or 4, probably depends if the 3 leads to an Oliver type which definitely requires a lot of good looking cheap rookies!
Personally I'd go 1. Dunkley 2. Butters 3. Heeney 4. Thomas 5. Martin 6. Treloar 7. Bailey 8. Sidey
I mean it depends entirely on what basis you want to rank.
The weighting that you give to ceiling, reliability, scoring ranges, hurt factor, likelihood to lose cash, expected score, role certainty, value and what not can all move the players massively.
If reliability is important than Sidey and Martin will move way up. Is explosive upside is your goal then I think Heeney, Butters and Thomas probably move up, and perhaps Martin in the right role.
Dunkley has the hurt factor though which no one else does, he's your textbook "I'd rather be right and have him than be wrong and not have him" pick. If he fails, everyone fails and you've got the head start of having expected it, if he doesn't, your season is over. I don't like Dunkley as a pick but over 50% of my competition does and thus I have to take him because while I don't like him I can absolutely see why others do and I've been wrong enough times to plan around it being not just possible but probable
I'd probably flip Heeney and Butters in your list, Heeney much more role certainty given the lack of competition. I'd have Martin in 2nd right now but for the cash difference and needing another game to confirm his role as best I can. I think I have Sidey ahead of Treloar and Bailey just because of his durability record but, honestly, the variances at this point are so minimal.
The weighting that you give to ceiling, reliability, scoring ranges, hurt factor, likelihood to lose cash, expected score, role certainty, value and what not can all move the players massively.
If reliability is important than Sidey and Martin will move way up. Is explosive upside is your goal then I think Heeney, Butters and Thomas probably move up, and perhaps Martin in the right role.
Dunkley has the hurt factor though which no one else does, he's your textbook "I'd rather be right and have him than be wrong and not have him" pick. If he fails, everyone fails and you've got the head start of having expected it, if he doesn't, your season is over. I don't like Dunkley as a pick but over 50% of my competition does and thus I have to take him because while I don't like him I can absolutely see why others do and I've been wrong enough times to plan around it being not just possible but probable
I'd probably flip Heeney and Butters in your list, Heeney much more role certainty given the lack of competition. I'd have Martin in 2nd right now but for the cash difference and needing another game to confirm his role as best I can. I think I have Sidey ahead of Treloar and Bailey just because of his durability record but, honestly, the variances at this point are so minimal.
I mean it depends entirely on what basis you want to rank.
The weighting that you give to ceiling, reliability, scoring ranges, hurt factor, likelihood to lose cash, expected score, role certainty, value and what not can all move the players massively.
If reliability is important than Sidey and Martin will move way up. Is explosive upside is your goal then I think Heeney, Butters and Thomas probably move up, and perhaps Martin in the right role.
Dunkley has the hurt factor though which no one else does, he's your textbook "I'd rather be right and have him than be wrong and not have him" pick. If he fails, everyone fails and you've got the head start of having expected it, if he doesn't, your season is over. I don't like Dunkley as a pick but over 50% of my competition does and thus I have to take him because while I don't like him I can absolutely see why others do and I've been wrong enough times to plan around it being not just possible but probable
I'd probably flip Heeney and Butters in your list, Heeney much more role certainty given the lack of competition. I'd have Martin in 2nd right now but for the cash difference and needing another game to confirm his role as best I can. I think I have Sidey ahead of Treloar and Bailey just because of his durability record but, honestly, the variances at this point are so minimal.
The weighting that you give to ceiling, reliability, scoring ranges, hurt factor, likelihood to lose cash, expected score, role certainty, value and what not can all move the players massively.
If reliability is important than Sidey and Martin will move way up. Is explosive upside is your goal then I think Heeney, Butters and Thomas probably move up, and perhaps Martin in the right role.
Dunkley has the hurt factor though which no one else does, he's your textbook "I'd rather be right and have him than be wrong and not have him" pick. If he fails, everyone fails and you've got the head start of having expected it, if he doesn't, your season is over. I don't like Dunkley as a pick but over 50% of my competition does and thus I have to take him because while I don't like him I can absolutely see why others do and I've been wrong enough times to plan around it being not just possible but probable
I'd probably flip Heeney and Butters in your list, Heeney much more role certainty given the lack of competition. I'd have Martin in 2nd right now but for the cash difference and needing another game to confirm his role as best I can. I think I have Sidey ahead of Treloar and Bailey just because of his durability record but, honestly, the variances at this point are so minimal.
Nah, good point. In this particular case, it was because I thought he looked ok - was around the ball a lot, got a bit of it, but in a way that didn't look like it was going to score well, e.g. handballs and ineffective disposals (ball was to a 50/50 and spilled).
Because I don't know the magic scoring formula, if it turns out that my initial guesstimate of how his game would be scored is wrong (like in this case) I'm satisfied with replacing my understanding with CD's. It'd be a different story if I thought his game was average at best but he scored highly, e.g. propped up by a few key goals. For example, I'm not about to run out and slot Bailey into my team because of his score because I suspect it was because he had a big first quarter before the score got out of handy but he didn't put in a whole game through the middle..
Because I don't know the magic scoring formula, if it turns out that my initial guesstimate of how his game would be scored is wrong (like in this case) I'm satisfied with replacing my understanding with CD's. It'd be a different story if I thought his game was average at best but he scored highly, e.g. propped up by a few key goals. For example, I'm not about to run out and slot Bailey into my team because of his score because I suspect it was because he had a big first quarter before the score got out of handy but he didn't put in a whole game through the middle..