Discussion 2022: Rookie Discussion
- Thread starter Shannon
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I struggle to see how Martin is there or is any better than the 22nd man if he is.
B: Kelly Stewart Laverde
HB: Hind Ridley McGrath
C: Heppell Merrett Langford
HF: Snelling Stringer# Perkins
F: Wright Jones* Smith*
R: Draper Parish Shiel#
Int: Caldwell Redman
Then you've got Cox, who I'd be very surprised if not playing as he's far more versatile than the others, Cutler, Ham and Martin fighting for the final 2 spots, assuming they don't go a tall. Cutler I would also have ahead of Martin.
Jones I think is at threat but that would be to Francis and Baldwin.
Smith is at threat when Walla is ready and perhaps also to Francis/Baldwin if they want to go really tall.
Stringer starts in CB but Shiel/Caldwell will do the work.
He's an outside chance and he's shown some incredible ability to find the ball but the JS is not going to be good, on a positive he's good enough to change that from what I've seen.
Would be nice if he's there and looks solid though but I'm personally seeing about 21 spots that I'd be pretty surprised if they went Martin instead.
B: Kelly Stewart Laverde
HB: Hind Ridley McGrath
C: Heppell Merrett Langford
HF: Snelling Stringer# Perkins
F: Wright Jones* Smith*
R: Draper Parish Shiel#
Int: Caldwell Redman
Then you've got Cox, who I'd be very surprised if not playing as he's far more versatile than the others, Cutler, Ham and Martin fighting for the final 2 spots, assuming they don't go a tall. Cutler I would also have ahead of Martin.
Jones I think is at threat but that would be to Francis and Baldwin.
Smith is at threat when Walla is ready and perhaps also to Francis/Baldwin if they want to go really tall.
Stringer starts in CB but Shiel/Caldwell will do the work.
He's an outside chance and he's shown some incredible ability to find the ball but the JS is not going to be good, on a positive he's good enough to change that from what I've seen.
Would be nice if he's there and looks solid though but I'm personally seeing about 21 spots that I'd be pretty surprised if they went Martin instead.
@wogitalia - you obviously have a higher opinion of Cutler than I do 😂
Just don’t rate him with his decision making & disposal … think he & Ham are just depth players to have on the list.
My guess at the bombers round 1 team :-
Laverde Stewart Redman
Heppell Ridley Kelly
McGrath Merrett Langford
Perkins Jones Stringer
Baldwin Wright Smith
Draper Parish Caldwell
Bench: Shiel, Hind, Martin, Snelling
Have to say Dev Smith might struggle to hold his spot from what I have seen over last couple of years, really regressed which is disappointing.
Just don’t rate him with his decision making & disposal … think he & Ham are just depth players to have on the list.
My guess at the bombers round 1 team :-
Laverde Stewart Redman
Heppell Ridley Kelly
McGrath Merrett Langford
Perkins Jones Stringer
Baldwin Wright Smith
Draper Parish Caldwell
Bench: Shiel, Hind, Martin, Snelling
Have to say Dev Smith might struggle to hold his spot from what I have seen over last couple of years, really regressed which is disappointing.
So figured I'd do a quick rookie rankings prior to the teams officially coming out, find it a good way to just jot the actual rankings and how I feel about their JS before the selection table blurs it...
Anyone under JHF qualified.
Backs
1. P. McCartin - SYD - $157,800 - Has the strongest JS of the group and his role has been good across both preseason games with enough intercept work to provide a cash generating ceiling and raise the floor, good ball user to date as well.
2. M. Hinge - ADE - $180,900 - Best roles to date, albeit two different ones raises it's own concerns. Played HB and wing, both can be lucrative, shows a nice hard edge and likes to tackle. Durability is an issue, job security also has problems with Seedsman (unknown), Milera (early) and Dawson (probably round 1) all capable of playing both positions he has also, among a few others.
3. S. De Koning - GEE - $123,900 - I have concerns on the JS with him having not played alongside Henry yet but they played Henderson with Henry last year so it's definitely possible they play together. Has showed decent scoring potential and the Cats have always over-possessed down back to the point that players like Kolo and Bews have tonned up, so he can make cash. Job security the only real issue and probably not a rookie you want to field regularly.
4. J. Gibcus - RIC - $171,300 - His profile is similar to McCartin but the job security is far more questionable, hasn't played alongside Grimes and Vlastuin and they've definitely had one extra down back all preseason that can't play in the real stuff. Grimes likely out round one only further muddies the water to where he's at. Shows good fantasy traits with tidy ball use, working to space and some intercept skills.
5. R. Thompson - GCS - $123,900 - Even at his best he was a poor scorer, so scoring is a major concern, I don't think he'll be best 22 to start the season with Caleb Graham having not put a foot wrong all preseason. Should slow burn some cash if he does make the best 22.
6. N. Kreuger - COL - $198,100 - Probably the best job security after McCartin except he went and ruined it all by getting suspended. Role is also not a good one and at his price, that's not a good thing. Probably the pick of the loophole options down back if say a Gibcus were to go HAM as an emergency and you had a big VC score to lock in as I think he's best 22. If he were forced into defense that would be big for the scoring potential.
7. J. Sinn - PA - $157,800 - He's got the best scoring potential of the whole group but I doubt he's best 22 and he's on the absolute fringe if he is. Kind of pick that either works really well as he takes and then demands to hold a position in the side or tanks completely, at 158k that's a tough bet.
8. N. Wanganeen-Milera - STK - $162,300 - Injuries might end opening a door but he looked a very long way off the physicality of AFL which given his very slight frame makes playing him very risky, you don't want him to get broken. Skills are there and role could be good with two wings getting injured. Very flaky looking player though so kind of guy who could be made an example of when he shirks a few contests and the coach wants to make a point to the rest of the group about the standards required. Historically though wing has been one of the better rookie positions as they can mostly avoid the physical tests and just get some easier touches. Could raise up the list if he looks set to play. Big worry is that Billings is back by round 3 or so barring a setback and Clark at round 4 or 5 barring the same, which would make cash generation a difficult thing. Unlike Sinn he didn't seem ready which makes for questions that he'd hold the spot over senior teammates once they're available, if he plays in the first place.
9. J. Boyd - CAR - $123,900 - Played solidly in the preseason and is right on the fringe but I can't see how he holds his spot once Docherty is ready to go and he's going to be close to playing round 1. If he survives Doch then Walsh is probably a couple of weeks behind him to close it once and for all. I think just needs an injury as can't put him ahead of Saad, Williams or Newman.
10. D. Wilmot - BRI - $139,800 - Had he not got himself suspended for round one I daresay he'd have been a lot higher on this list, very impressive last week but he is suspended and it would take some serious cajones to start him given Brisbane are a very strong side and he's fringe 22 at best.
11. B. Kemp - CAR - $156,800 - Another who is right on the fringe. Can't see how he's ahead of OMc, Weitering, Young or McGovern down back, can't see how he's ahead of Silvagni, Curnow or McKay down forward. Now there's some seriously injury prone guys on those lists but he still starts outside the team looking in for mine.
12. W. Kelly - COL - $123,900 - Injuries and suspension may well open a door for him but it's one that probably shuts just as quickly, throw in his durability record and it's a pretty hard sell, imo.
13. J. Smith - MEL - $177,200 - He played in the preseason but would be genuinely shocked if he's there round one when May, Lever and Tomlinson take their places.
14. K. Hayden - NM - $199,600 - Might play round one while Hall is out but is fringe 22 and has shown no scoring ability to date. This would be desperate.
Others - C. Dean (injured), A. Jones (B22), Angwin (B22), N. O'Driscoll (B22), B. Miller (B22), DGB (JS, scoring), S. Skinner (B22).
Forwards
1. J. Rachele - ADE - $184,800 - The role isn't ideal but it's not terrible, Rowe made cash last year as a less talented player in a worse role and I daresay as the season progresses they'll slot some midfield rotations his way. Still a role that I'd personally rather be looping than starting but in a bad group he's the standout. Shame he's so expensive!
2. C. Durdin - CAR - $143,700 - Calf injury aside, he's shown a bit. Role is poor but Owies takes the worst SF position and his is ever so slightly higher. Scoring potential will be shaky and he's not a guy you want on the field, but he's cheapish and should make cash. Needs to be picked round 1 obviously with the calf.
3. H. Ralphsmith - RIC - $206,700 - This one is sketchy because I'm trying to balance the likelihood of being picked (low) with the scoring potential (extreme) and their starting price (super high!). Obviously the fact he's here says that the scoring potential stands out enough. JS is sketchy to non-existent. Similar to Gibcus if he's named round one without Grimes and Vlastuin alongside, it's basically impossible to interpret. Even if he makes the cut, he'll have a couple of guys knocking on the door.
4. N. Martin - ESS - $102,400 - I'm not at all convinced he's any better than 22nd picked in their round 1 team, at best I would think it's 21st so he's on a knife's edge, the positive is he's scored explosively in all games so far and looked the goods and at least at 102k he doesn't hurt if he doesn't make it.
5. O. McDonald - CAR - $201,900 - Another weird one, I don't think you can pick him over guys that are 25-50k more so he's not relevant but he's still worth talking about. Basically would think he and Young are in a battle and he was the better performed in preseason. This is a weak group, obviously.
6. J. Hayes - STK - $102,400 - Purely because Ryder is fragile and he flashed a bit as a forward to think he could actually survive in the side as one with Ryder/Marshall. Having said that, scoring potential seems limited barring injuries and perhaps his most valuable trait is his DPP.
7. H. Dixon - WCE - $102,400 - Basically the same story as Hayes with a worse scoring role, in a team that looks terrible with a guy gunning for his spot, even if selected round 1 once he's fit in O. Allen.
8. E. Hollands - GC - $123,900 - It would be a shock if he's picked round 1 having not played but he's so talented that if he was he's at least worth having mentioned. If picked I think he moves right up this list though.
9. F. Maginness - HAW - $143,700 - Played the best role of the whole list outside of Ralphsmith but it's not a realistic role at the Hawks and it's really hard to find a spot in the best 22 for him at all. At a premium price that's hard to swallow.
10. F. Evans - GEE - $123,900 - Has played the preseason games which is a tick. His role was terrible and his output has matched the role and there's so many names that could take the spot. Ultimately if he looks set to play round 1, he could be worth a punt.
11. C. Stone - GWS - $181,400 - He could move up or down if GWS give us any update on his injury, I'm assuming he's out but his role isn't horrific if he's not and I think he's best 22, still rather not select him.
12. L. Gollant - ADE - $123,900 - Hard to read, has played the preseason and showed some things but also not playing a good role and I'd think he's there as long as Walker is out as a best case.
13. J. McEntee - PA - $123,900 - Role was really bad, job security would be even worse, you can throw a blanket from basically 4 down to here that I'd rather not pick them (except Hollands).
14. K. Baldwin - ESS - $123,900 - If he were to win a spot and look clear in it then move him up but I can't see how he's ahead of Jones and Francis, even having outperformed them, at this point. If they picked him alongside either of them it would be interesting. Think he will score decently for a young KPF as he works hard to get the ball but JS is a huge issue.
15. C. Comben - NM - $123,900 - Hasn't played, so would be a real shock if he does now. Just can't make the case even if he does, role would be bad in a bad team and the JS would be horrible as one of Xerri, CCJ or Goldy would be out of the team breathing down his neck.
Others - T. Wanganeen (B22), A Jones (B22), S. Skinner (B22), K. Chandler (B22), L. Pedlar (inj), M. Windhager (B22)
Anyone under JHF qualified.
Backs
1. P. McCartin - SYD - $157,800 - Has the strongest JS of the group and his role has been good across both preseason games with enough intercept work to provide a cash generating ceiling and raise the floor, good ball user to date as well.
2. M. Hinge - ADE - $180,900 - Best roles to date, albeit two different ones raises it's own concerns. Played HB and wing, both can be lucrative, shows a nice hard edge and likes to tackle. Durability is an issue, job security also has problems with Seedsman (unknown), Milera (early) and Dawson (probably round 1) all capable of playing both positions he has also, among a few others.
3. S. De Koning - GEE - $123,900 - I have concerns on the JS with him having not played alongside Henry yet but they played Henderson with Henry last year so it's definitely possible they play together. Has showed decent scoring potential and the Cats have always over-possessed down back to the point that players like Kolo and Bews have tonned up, so he can make cash. Job security the only real issue and probably not a rookie you want to field regularly.
4. J. Gibcus - RIC - $171,300 - His profile is similar to McCartin but the job security is far more questionable, hasn't played alongside Grimes and Vlastuin and they've definitely had one extra down back all preseason that can't play in the real stuff. Grimes likely out round one only further muddies the water to where he's at. Shows good fantasy traits with tidy ball use, working to space and some intercept skills.
5. R. Thompson - GCS - $123,900 - Even at his best he was a poor scorer, so scoring is a major concern, I don't think he'll be best 22 to start the season with Caleb Graham having not put a foot wrong all preseason. Should slow burn some cash if he does make the best 22.
6. N. Kreuger - COL - $198,100 - Probably the best job security after McCartin except he went and ruined it all by getting suspended. Role is also not a good one and at his price, that's not a good thing. Probably the pick of the loophole options down back if say a Gibcus were to go HAM as an emergency and you had a big VC score to lock in as I think he's best 22. If he were forced into defense that would be big for the scoring potential.
7. J. Sinn - PA - $157,800 - He's got the best scoring potential of the whole group but I doubt he's best 22 and he's on the absolute fringe if he is. Kind of pick that either works really well as he takes and then demands to hold a position in the side or tanks completely, at 158k that's a tough bet.
8. N. Wanganeen-Milera - STK - $162,300 - Injuries might end opening a door but he looked a very long way off the physicality of AFL which given his very slight frame makes playing him very risky, you don't want him to get broken. Skills are there and role could be good with two wings getting injured. Very flaky looking player though so kind of guy who could be made an example of when he shirks a few contests and the coach wants to make a point to the rest of the group about the standards required. Historically though wing has been one of the better rookie positions as they can mostly avoid the physical tests and just get some easier touches. Could raise up the list if he looks set to play. Big worry is that Billings is back by round 3 or so barring a setback and Clark at round 4 or 5 barring the same, which would make cash generation a difficult thing. Unlike Sinn he didn't seem ready which makes for questions that he'd hold the spot over senior teammates once they're available, if he plays in the first place.
9. J. Boyd - CAR - $123,900 - Played solidly in the preseason and is right on the fringe but I can't see how he holds his spot once Docherty is ready to go and he's going to be close to playing round 1. If he survives Doch then Walsh is probably a couple of weeks behind him to close it once and for all. I think just needs an injury as can't put him ahead of Saad, Williams or Newman.
10. D. Wilmot - BRI - $139,800 - Had he not got himself suspended for round one I daresay he'd have been a lot higher on this list, very impressive last week but he is suspended and it would take some serious cajones to start him given Brisbane are a very strong side and he's fringe 22 at best.
11. B. Kemp - CAR - $156,800 - Another who is right on the fringe. Can't see how he's ahead of OMc, Weitering, Young or McGovern down back, can't see how he's ahead of Silvagni, Curnow or McKay down forward. Now there's some seriously injury prone guys on those lists but he still starts outside the team looking in for mine.
12. W. Kelly - COL - $123,900 - Injuries and suspension may well open a door for him but it's one that probably shuts just as quickly, throw in his durability record and it's a pretty hard sell, imo.
13. J. Smith - MEL - $177,200 - He played in the preseason but would be genuinely shocked if he's there round one when May, Lever and Tomlinson take their places.
14. K. Hayden - NM - $199,600 - Might play round one while Hall is out but is fringe 22 and has shown no scoring ability to date. This would be desperate.
Others - C. Dean (injured), A. Jones (B22), Angwin (B22), N. O'Driscoll (B22), B. Miller (B22), DGB (JS, scoring), S. Skinner (B22).
Forwards
1. J. Rachele - ADE - $184,800 - The role isn't ideal but it's not terrible, Rowe made cash last year as a less talented player in a worse role and I daresay as the season progresses they'll slot some midfield rotations his way. Still a role that I'd personally rather be looping than starting but in a bad group he's the standout. Shame he's so expensive!
2. C. Durdin - CAR - $143,700 - Calf injury aside, he's shown a bit. Role is poor but Owies takes the worst SF position and his is ever so slightly higher. Scoring potential will be shaky and he's not a guy you want on the field, but he's cheapish and should make cash. Needs to be picked round 1 obviously with the calf.
3. H. Ralphsmith - RIC - $206,700 - This one is sketchy because I'm trying to balance the likelihood of being picked (low) with the scoring potential (extreme) and their starting price (super high!). Obviously the fact he's here says that the scoring potential stands out enough. JS is sketchy to non-existent. Similar to Gibcus if he's named round one without Grimes and Vlastuin alongside, it's basically impossible to interpret. Even if he makes the cut, he'll have a couple of guys knocking on the door.
4. N. Martin - ESS - $102,400 - I'm not at all convinced he's any better than 22nd picked in their round 1 team, at best I would think it's 21st so he's on a knife's edge, the positive is he's scored explosively in all games so far and looked the goods and at least at 102k he doesn't hurt if he doesn't make it.
5. O. McDonald - CAR - $201,900 - Another weird one, I don't think you can pick him over guys that are 25-50k more so he's not relevant but he's still worth talking about. Basically would think he and Young are in a battle and he was the better performed in preseason. This is a weak group, obviously.
6. J. Hayes - STK - $102,400 - Purely because Ryder is fragile and he flashed a bit as a forward to think he could actually survive in the side as one with Ryder/Marshall. Having said that, scoring potential seems limited barring injuries and perhaps his most valuable trait is his DPP.
7. H. Dixon - WCE - $102,400 - Basically the same story as Hayes with a worse scoring role, in a team that looks terrible with a guy gunning for his spot, even if selected round 1 once he's fit in O. Allen.
8. E. Hollands - GC - $123,900 - It would be a shock if he's picked round 1 having not played but he's so talented that if he was he's at least worth having mentioned. If picked I think he moves right up this list though.
9. F. Maginness - HAW - $143,700 - Played the best role of the whole list outside of Ralphsmith but it's not a realistic role at the Hawks and it's really hard to find a spot in the best 22 for him at all. At a premium price that's hard to swallow.
10. F. Evans - GEE - $123,900 - Has played the preseason games which is a tick. His role was terrible and his output has matched the role and there's so many names that could take the spot. Ultimately if he looks set to play round 1, he could be worth a punt.
11. C. Stone - GWS - $181,400 - He could move up or down if GWS give us any update on his injury, I'm assuming he's out but his role isn't horrific if he's not and I think he's best 22, still rather not select him.
12. L. Gollant - ADE - $123,900 - Hard to read, has played the preseason and showed some things but also not playing a good role and I'd think he's there as long as Walker is out as a best case.
13. J. McEntee - PA - $123,900 - Role was really bad, job security would be even worse, you can throw a blanket from basically 4 down to here that I'd rather not pick them (except Hollands).
14. K. Baldwin - ESS - $123,900 - If he were to win a spot and look clear in it then move him up but I can't see how he's ahead of Jones and Francis, even having outperformed them, at this point. If they picked him alongside either of them it would be interesting. Think he will score decently for a young KPF as he works hard to get the ball but JS is a huge issue.
15. C. Comben - NM - $123,900 - Hasn't played, so would be a real shock if he does now. Just can't make the case even if he does, role would be bad in a bad team and the JS would be horrible as one of Xerri, CCJ or Goldy would be out of the team breathing down his neck.
Others - T. Wanganeen (B22), A Jones (B22), S. Skinner (B22), K. Chandler (B22), L. Pedlar (inj), M. Windhager (B22)
Rucks
1. B. Preuss - GWS - $204,700 - The clear best option except for the price tag and now the R1 suspension, which at least does have loophole value but also makes working out where he fits in the team even harder. He played really well on the weekend though and Cameron loves his ruckmen to throw their weight around.
2. S. Hayes - He's the only ruck really right on the door that's not playing, unlike the other cheap guys he's a genuine injury away from playing. Can't see him playing alongside Lycett unless it's as the #1 ruck which I can't see him as yet as Lycett is still better in every area. Worth knowing about in case of injury.
Other - N. Bryan (B22), N. Moyle (B22).
Midfield
1. N. Daicos - COL - $193,800 - He looks capable of being the best genuine rookie we've seen and should also get DEF DPP in round 7 which makes his staying power even stronger in the side which is going to be wanted if he's scoring 80+ like I think he can.
2. D. Stephens - SYD - $167,800 - Has a clear best 22 spot to lose and it's a good one. He effectively replaces McInerney as the secondary winger, 75 average last year, while he moves into Dawson's vacated primary winger. He's got good skills and elite endurance so should score decently.
3. J. Horne-Francis - NM - $207,300 - JS is better than Stephens, role not as good and he's 40k more but he's got more talent and could be a huge rookie. Like Daicos, the looming DPP definitely adds substantial longevity to him as a rookie, ideally will be averaging in the 70+ region and make for one of the last upgrades with a perfect bye for just that.
4. A. Davies - GCS - $202,500 - I think he's got a clear best 22 spot available and a good role, which puts him ahead of a few of the others. I do think that a couple of the others may score better roles though if they break in and hold their spots, especially Ward, but for safety of pick, he'd be the guy. Price is unfortunate.
5. J. Ward - HAW - $180,300 - Perhaps the best scoring potential after Daicos of the group but I struggle push him into the best 22 clearly, meaning he's kind of on the outside looking for a spot. If he gets the right one, he's golden, if he gets the wrong one the cash generation path get's a lot harder fast. He's got a lot of boom or bust potential and might be a guy who doesn't really make cash until about round 10 onward when the Hawks season is more than likely over and they start to push development into the kids. They could well go that path from the start but it's not usual for a new coach.
6. B. Hough - WCE - $117,300 - Honestly shocked he's this high but if he makes the 22 and Witherden getting himself suspended just helps that, then I expect he can stick it. Similar to Chapman last year where he's not physically ready but is mentally and skillwise and the Eagles could be into development mode really early in this season. He's high risk if picked round 1 but, well look at the rest of this list, and his role and scoring potential is much better if he gets it.
7. C. Stephens - GEE - $123,900 - He played a good role, I don't think the role exists in the real stuff but he's hard and showed decent skills, those are the types you find a way to squeeze in.
8. J. Soligo - ADE - $117,300 - He's slight, the role will probably be bad if he's picked but he's cheap and he's a genuine chance of playing. I'd say he's behind Hinge and Rachele though and I struggle to squeeze him into the best 22 unless they basically forget about positions.
9. C. MacDonald - HAW - $117,300 - See Ward, only further down the list. I'm just really struggling to fit him in the best 22. The positive for him is he at least played a role he could potentially be used in for the practice games but it's not a great role and he didn't exactly set the world on fire in the preseason games. Be more surprised if he's picked round 1 than if he isn't and if he is the names that he's picked ahead of will be important. Really strong Brockman potential here.
10. F. Macrae - COL - $206,800 - I think his chance of being picked is actually a lot higher than some of the guys above but he's 207k and hasn't really shown any inclination to score so far and he's just not getting midfield minutes in any realistic situation. Just can't see the cash generation.
11. J. Hately - ADE - $188,700 - I don't expect him to be picked but he's somewhere on the fringe floating about. If he could stick a landing in the midfield he could score well. All of this is quite literally clutching at straws.
12. J. Mead - PA - $123,900 - If he makes the team it's out of position as the 22nd guy selected with legitimate AFL players playing SANFL to take his spot. I just can't see the pathway to 10 games or a 60+ average even if he does.
13. R. McComb - WB - $102,400 - He's the Dogs smoky to fill that 22nd spot on their list that they give to a VFL guy annually almost as if to inspire the reserves to try harder. Like the rest over the past few years he will score terribly relying on unreliable sources of points. Still, it's Bevo so wouldn't shock me if he's picked round 1, I really hope I don't have to pick him
14. J. Goater - NM - $117,300 - Just hasn't got the chances in the preseason and plays perhaps their strongest position with Hall, McDonald, Turner and Ziebell among their first picked each week ahead of him. Hayden also the more physically ready and then you've got Young, Bosenvulagi and Bonar also wanting the spot.
15. T. Sonsie - RIC - $117,300 - I'd be shocked if he plays but his position on the fringe in the preseason suggests he's somewhere nearby for the real stuff but I'd think he's about 25th on their list, so would take some carnage between now and round 1.
Others - J. Tsitas (B22), M. Roberts (B22), M. Owens (B22), N. Stevens (B22), B. Hobbs (B22)
Overall, it's a very weak and very expensive group, imo.
For the quick breakdown:
Genuine on-field - Daicos, Horne-Francis, Ralphsmith, Davies and Stephens.
Startable - Rachele, Hinge, Martin, McCartin, Preuss* & Ward#
Loop Preferable - Gibcus, SDK, OMc, Durdin, Hough, Mids 7+, Hayes
Loop Only - The rest
*Moves up as R1
#Could move up or down depending on role.
1. B. Preuss - GWS - $204,700 - The clear best option except for the price tag and now the R1 suspension, which at least does have loophole value but also makes working out where he fits in the team even harder. He played really well on the weekend though and Cameron loves his ruckmen to throw their weight around.
2. S. Hayes - He's the only ruck really right on the door that's not playing, unlike the other cheap guys he's a genuine injury away from playing. Can't see him playing alongside Lycett unless it's as the #1 ruck which I can't see him as yet as Lycett is still better in every area. Worth knowing about in case of injury.
Other - N. Bryan (B22), N. Moyle (B22).
Midfield
1. N. Daicos - COL - $193,800 - He looks capable of being the best genuine rookie we've seen and should also get DEF DPP in round 7 which makes his staying power even stronger in the side which is going to be wanted if he's scoring 80+ like I think he can.
2. D. Stephens - SYD - $167,800 - Has a clear best 22 spot to lose and it's a good one. He effectively replaces McInerney as the secondary winger, 75 average last year, while he moves into Dawson's vacated primary winger. He's got good skills and elite endurance so should score decently.
3. J. Horne-Francis - NM - $207,300 - JS is better than Stephens, role not as good and he's 40k more but he's got more talent and could be a huge rookie. Like Daicos, the looming DPP definitely adds substantial longevity to him as a rookie, ideally will be averaging in the 70+ region and make for one of the last upgrades with a perfect bye for just that.
4. A. Davies - GCS - $202,500 - I think he's got a clear best 22 spot available and a good role, which puts him ahead of a few of the others. I do think that a couple of the others may score better roles though if they break in and hold their spots, especially Ward, but for safety of pick, he'd be the guy. Price is unfortunate.
5. J. Ward - HAW - $180,300 - Perhaps the best scoring potential after Daicos of the group but I struggle push him into the best 22 clearly, meaning he's kind of on the outside looking for a spot. If he gets the right one, he's golden, if he gets the wrong one the cash generation path get's a lot harder fast. He's got a lot of boom or bust potential and might be a guy who doesn't really make cash until about round 10 onward when the Hawks season is more than likely over and they start to push development into the kids. They could well go that path from the start but it's not usual for a new coach.
6. B. Hough - WCE - $117,300 - Honestly shocked he's this high but if he makes the 22 and Witherden getting himself suspended just helps that, then I expect he can stick it. Similar to Chapman last year where he's not physically ready but is mentally and skillwise and the Eagles could be into development mode really early in this season. He's high risk if picked round 1 but, well look at the rest of this list, and his role and scoring potential is much better if he gets it.
7. C. Stephens - GEE - $123,900 - He played a good role, I don't think the role exists in the real stuff but he's hard and showed decent skills, those are the types you find a way to squeeze in.
8. J. Soligo - ADE - $117,300 - He's slight, the role will probably be bad if he's picked but he's cheap and he's a genuine chance of playing. I'd say he's behind Hinge and Rachele though and I struggle to squeeze him into the best 22 unless they basically forget about positions.
9. C. MacDonald - HAW - $117,300 - See Ward, only further down the list. I'm just really struggling to fit him in the best 22. The positive for him is he at least played a role he could potentially be used in for the practice games but it's not a great role and he didn't exactly set the world on fire in the preseason games. Be more surprised if he's picked round 1 than if he isn't and if he is the names that he's picked ahead of will be important. Really strong Brockman potential here.
10. F. Macrae - COL - $206,800 - I think his chance of being picked is actually a lot higher than some of the guys above but he's 207k and hasn't really shown any inclination to score so far and he's just not getting midfield minutes in any realistic situation. Just can't see the cash generation.
11. J. Hately - ADE - $188,700 - I don't expect him to be picked but he's somewhere on the fringe floating about. If he could stick a landing in the midfield he could score well. All of this is quite literally clutching at straws.
12. J. Mead - PA - $123,900 - If he makes the team it's out of position as the 22nd guy selected with legitimate AFL players playing SANFL to take his spot. I just can't see the pathway to 10 games or a 60+ average even if he does.
13. R. McComb - WB - $102,400 - He's the Dogs smoky to fill that 22nd spot on their list that they give to a VFL guy annually almost as if to inspire the reserves to try harder. Like the rest over the past few years he will score terribly relying on unreliable sources of points. Still, it's Bevo so wouldn't shock me if he's picked round 1, I really hope I don't have to pick him
14. J. Goater - NM - $117,300 - Just hasn't got the chances in the preseason and plays perhaps their strongest position with Hall, McDonald, Turner and Ziebell among their first picked each week ahead of him. Hayden also the more physically ready and then you've got Young, Bosenvulagi and Bonar also wanting the spot.
15. T. Sonsie - RIC - $117,300 - I'd be shocked if he plays but his position on the fringe in the preseason suggests he's somewhere nearby for the real stuff but I'd think he's about 25th on their list, so would take some carnage between now and round 1.
Others - J. Tsitas (B22), M. Roberts (B22), M. Owens (B22), N. Stevens (B22), B. Hobbs (B22)
Overall, it's a very weak and very expensive group, imo.
For the quick breakdown:
Genuine on-field - Daicos, Horne-Francis, Ralphsmith, Davies and Stephens.
Startable - Rachele, Hinge, Martin, McCartin, Preuss* & Ward#
Loop Preferable - Gibcus, SDK, OMc, Durdin, Hough, Mids 7+, Hayes
Loop Only - The rest
*Moves up as R1
#Could move up or down depending on role.
Cutler played the last 9 games straight, including the final last year and was good and has been a main part of the defensive rotation for them all preseason. Be surprised if they axed him, I don't disagree with your take.
Smith is their leader in the forward line and still provides great pressure work, he's playing a different and much more selfless role. He's definitely not safe but, again, be surprised if he's not there round 1, reckon his spot comes under fire when Walla is ready.
Martin and Baldwin might sneak in, going to be real earn it spots if picked though, high risk/reward fantasy picks in other words.
Hopefully they're there and looking real safe in the team for fantasy purposes, Martin's scoring potential is as good as anyone if he's playing.
Smith is their leader in the forward line and still provides great pressure work, he's playing a different and much more selfless role. He's definitely not safe but, again, be surprised if he's not there round 1, reckon his spot comes under fire when Walla is ready.
Martin and Baldwin might sneak in, going to be real earn it spots if picked though, high risk/reward fantasy picks in other words.
Hopefully they're there and looking real safe in the team for fantasy purposes, Martin's scoring potential is as good as anyone if he's playing.
Would love to see him play, not just from a fantasy perspective but as an Essendon supporter. I've said it before - I can't believe he slipped through the draft. Another great pickup by Disco.
In terms of a spot in the team, I reckon he's fighting with Smith more than Cox. Tough call. Given how he was used in the Saints game, I suspect he's ripe to be the sub.
In terms of a spot in the team, I reckon he's fighting with Smith more than Cox. Tough call. Given how he was used in the Saints game, I suspect he's ripe to be the sub.
We're massively dependent on Carlton going by this list, which immediately limits the likelihood for their best 22 options - Carlton isn't going to show up with four debutants for example (at least in my expectation), but also gives us clarity before any games kick off.
Maginness is the obvious one that I hope gets picked - the rest look pretty poor on the role/scoring, but Finn could just to a top 5 option just by being selected in a fit Hawthorn team.
Surprised you didn't include Hayes and Dixon in here too. They seem a lot more relevant as rucks than right at the bum end of the forward line.
I would've thrown Xerri in here too - I'll give him that $1k leeway over the JHF price.
Maginness is the obvious one that I hope gets picked - the rest look pretty poor on the role/scoring, but Finn could just to a top 5 option just by being selected in a fit Hawthorn team.
Surprised you didn't include Hayes and Dixon in here too. They seem a lot more relevant as rucks than right at the bum end of the forward line.
I would've thrown Xerri in here too - I'll give him that $1k leeway over the JHF price.
Mad respect @wogitalia, love your work. Team selections are going to be fascinating come Rd 1!
@wogitalia I am sure it has been said before. But many thanks for all your time and efforts with your player write ups and match analyst's
