Strategy 2022: Round 3 Trades

[Shaunpro1]

Pittonet and TDK really started to expose English in the Ruck for mine, it looked alot like last year to me when he was just totally outclassed in pure Ruck Craft, thats a concern in a side that's 0-2 for mine, especially when with all due respect Pittonet and TDK are only very average Ruckmen themselves.

 

[McLovin]

Pittonet and TDK really started to expose English in the Ruck for mine, it looked alot like last year to me when he was just totally outclassed in pure Ruck Craft, thats a concern in a side that's 0-2 for mine, especially when with all due respect Pittonet and TDK are only very average Ruckmen themselves.

English being much less competitive in the ruck than he was against the vastly superior Melbourne combo was a bit confusing. He looks fantastic outside the ruck contest though, some of his play was like vintage Stefan Martin from before his tap work improved, but without the bizarre turnovers.

 

[Shaunpro1]

English being much less competitive in the ruck than he was against the vastly superior Melbourne combo was a bit confusing. He looks fantastic outside the ruck contest though, some of his play was like vintage Stefan Martin from before his tap work improved, but without the bizarre turnovers.

I just dont think you can compete in the modern game losing the Ruck by 25-30 every week, Bevo will adjust and personally I'd be very surprised if we dont see Stef on Thursday Night.

 

[Grundogging]

3. Owens to Martin
This smacks of trading for the sake of trading.. frees up negligible cash and doesn't really solve any pressing issues. If nothing else, Owens is a useful late round loop if he isn't playing/sub risk.. and if he pops up again at least I don't have to look at his 2 point average (surely..).

Seems like a perfectly acceptable rookie correction for mine - one is a failed first round starter that were not likely to see back again for a long time, the other is a player who even after just one game appears to be a lock to get a game on the wing for the next 6-8 weeks with the injuries in the Essendon midfield.

Yes you've just put up 2600 in round 2 on the back of some ridiculous early cricket scores, but you still need cash gen early on and Martin is shaping to be one of the fattest mooers going around this season.

There is of course the risk with Martin not playing last week and thus waiting for two weeks for him to be on the bubble but the potential reward far outweighs the risk here so don't over think it.

 

[JMAC]

Want to get Cripps in - Whitfield or Marshall out (via DPP)?

Marshall feels like has more upside but both tend to get hurt.

 

[Montyjnr]

Full disclaimer. I already had Cripps, so I bought Hewett.

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Great team with alot of value which should provide incredible scoring in the short term.

I just wonder if long term you’re missing out on some good cash generation from the likes of JHF, Rachele, MacDonald etc. though and whether they should be prioritised over missed value premiums in Hewett/Heeney.

 

[Chumpion]

Seems like a perfectly acceptable rookie correction for mine - one is a failed first round starter that were not likely to see back again for a long time, the other is a player who even after just one game appears to be a lock to get a game on the wing for the next 6-8 weeks with the injuries in the Essendon midfield.

Yes you've just put up 2600 in round 2 on the back of some ridiculous early cricket scores, but you still need cash gen early on and Martin is shaping to be one of the fattest mooers going around this season.

There is of course the risk with Martin not playing last week and thus waiting for two weeks for him to be on the bubble but the potential reward far outweighs the risk here so don't over think it.

Very fair point! I probably got lost in the lights of the potential ins I could bring in (Hewett, Rowell, etc) but you're right, a rookie correction on it's own isn't a bad thing at all..

 

[stephen]

Few mentions of Xerri as a must have. Without wanting to plant my flag as the antiXerri representative of the forum, I am very skeptical about that.

Would strongly advise people to do their own sums on whether he's worth a trade.

BE's at this stage of the season are relevant to the speed of cash gen, but don't ultimately affect how much cash he makes. It's what he scores from here that matters.

Obviously a great starting pick, and an easy target for those with an obvious dud who can be corrected in one trade.

Also he holds great appeal for a quick cash grab to possibly start upgrading a week early, if you have the spot for him.

But other than that I'm not sure.

For my team it would have to be Berry out. FWIW I still have Berry outscoring Xerri from here, and making only slightly less cash. YMMV.

EDITED to add that given price difference you don't need to think Xerri is that far ahead of Berry to make it worth the trade. 5-10 points probably gets you to the value of a trade, given cash gen and points gained combined.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

It was stats analysis around a player scoring a particular score across a season. Even a player ave 110 has seven scores below 100 according to the stats. As for the role Heeney has, this has always been one of the issues with Heeney. His role has changed for different games across past seasons. Even Longmire said prior to this season that they would like to play him more in the midfield (said that basically every season for past few years) but we will play him where ever we need him.

So if he stays fit and keeps the same role as past two games than yes he could be in for a big year.

I probably shouldn't have said the table is not relevant - more that I felt the original figure of 97 being used was irrelevant.

110 is more likely in the current role if he stays fit. That means he averages 107 from here, which is still good value priced at 84. His fluctuations should flatten out a bit, because he won't stagnate forward if he is not getting involved.

With the hot start, after being priced at 83.5 to begin with, he is unlikely to be cheaper in the future, even with the inevitable 7-ish scores below 100.

 

[Peter56]

Thoughts pleas on these trades?

 

[Yasi]

Thoughts pleas on these trades?

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From one keeper and a likely donut rookie to two keepers and a likely great cash cow. Can’t fault it.

 

[stephen]

Thoughts pleas on these trades?

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I'd do them.

 

[Zagbag]

Few mentions of Xerri as a must have. Without wanting to plant my flag as the antiXerri representative of the forum, I am very skeptical about that.

Would strongly advise people to do their own sums on whether he's worth a trade.

BE's at this stage of the season are relevant to the speed of cash gen, but don't ultimately affect how much cash he makes. It's what he scores from here that matters.

Obviously a great starting pick, and an easy target for those with an obvious dud who can be corrected in one trade.

Also he holds great appeal for a quick cash grab to possibly start upgrading a week early, if you have the spot for him.

But other than that I'm not sure.

For my team it would have to be Berry out. FWIW I still have Berry outscoring Xerri from here, and making only slightly less cash. YMMV.

EDITED to add that given price difference you don't need to think Xerri is that far ahead of Berry to make it worth the trade. 5-10 points probably gets you to the value of a trade, given cash gen and points gained combined.

He passes the eye test. I remember from the first time I saw him play - preseason last year I think? - that this guy is a serious player. He’s athletic and skillful. Scored okay as a forward last year in 1st and 2nd quarters before drifting out of games completely.

Now he’s sharing a top ruck role, scoring well, and priced at 200k.

That said, I wouldn’t be offloading Berry for him. I still think Berry will be a great pick, and have runs of 90 average. I’m glad people are jumping off him.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

A lot of that running was him lagging behind the play, indeed that is what he was doing for most of the game - labouring trying to catch up with the play after not getting involved.

There were a couple of spurts of run and carry later in the game which looked a bit more like him, but even then the decision making and/or delivery by foot was poor by his standards.

His defensive work was also shocking, he's never been the best tackler but on the weekend he was being brushed aside by the ball carrier with minimal effort.

One other small thing which stood out a bit was that he struggled in a couple of occasions to get down low to pick up a ground ball which for a smooth mover with generally good balance and hands was a bit unusual.

Not sure what's up with him, but he's definitely not passing the eye test in comparison to the Lachie Whitfield were used to seeing.

This is the type of observation that I find invaluable to make a more informed decision on him.

The stats say he ran the 15km and had 90% TOG, but you and I could probably get fit enough to do that - we wouldn't go near getting the football though.

There is a hell of a lot of smoke around to suggest he is restricted to some extent. What that extent is, is impossible to know. His SC (and DT) scores (which is all we have) suggest he is at around 70%.

The eye test is often the most important, so thanks for that.

 

[THCLT]

For those playing along at home, initial idea
Outs: Whitfield, McGovern & Berry
Ins: some of Cripps, Hall, Hewett, Heeney.

First off, team looks in pretty darn good shape.

McGovern, two weeks of question marks, he's first culled here.

Hewett is great role season long, you saved the cash spend ($276 ITB). Whether Bowey delivers a greater cash return for similar points over the next period is the big question (410 ITB). I'd go Bowey and burn the upgrade trade later. Also allows you see Hewett with a full Carlton mid line.

You must buy Cripps. Who to sell? If there is a single out this week, I'd sell Owens. $73 ITB. Even without a donut, I'd consider just hard captaining Neale. I think the cash generation will be super important. I think Berry outscores your bench.

I started Hall. I think he is a top 3 defender at seasons end and under priced. You can't buy him now. It's a game of BE's.

And the keeper with a ridiculous BE is Heeney. Is Whitfield to Heeney worth it? Not only in cash, but also in terms of killing a boost trade. I think boosts could be super useful in a few weeks. I don't think $50k is worth it for Whitfield to Heeney in and of itself if both are keepers. Is it worth Whitfield to Hall for sure keeper? I don't think at the expense of a boost trade.

Really its not an ugly duckling, it's whether Whitfield is a list clogger and Heeney is sure thing in the forward line. If you think it's both of those things are true, pull the trigger. I have. 1 boost down, 4 to go.

Many thanks for sharing your detailed thoughts.
I've considered and weighed up all the points you've mentioned at one point or another so it's comforting to see another coach with similar views. I also realise that I cannot do everything I would like to do with the 3 trades so will have to prioritise what's more important to correct now. The other decision I'm fighting with myself is whether to follow the crowd with a Cripps/Hewett type or find other value route to go up against them, my natural tendency is to take the latter option but that could just be plain stubbornness on my part.

At the end of the day, I'll choose the path which makes me most happy about my team going forward.

Thanks again to you and others who've reached out to my call.

 

[stephen]

He passes the eye test. I remember from the first time I saw him play - preseason last year I think? - that this guy is a serious player. He’s athletic and skillful. Scored okay as a forward last year in 1st and 2nd quarters before drifting out of games completely.

Now he’s sharing a top ruck role, scoring well, and priced at 200k.

That said, I wouldn’t be offloading Berry for him. I still think Berry will be a great pick, and have runs of 90 average. I’m glad people are jumping off him.

Yeah I see it similarly with berry. Would like to fit Xerri in but doesn't work for me. Just got to hold tight and hope it's a 75ave and not 90. Then everyone can claim victory and move on to the next one.

 

[THCLT]

Full disclaimer. I already had Cripps, so I bought Hewett.

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One of the more balanced 'value' based team I've seen to date with Daicos as the sole on-field rookie. There's a realistic chance that 4 or 5 upgrades gets you to a completed team, maybe as soon as R10. Then you the MBRs to improve on your best 22. I like it, like it a lot!
Good to see something different though you seem to have somehow caught all the early bolters! Hough/Dixon to Martin next round and you're pretty set for the ride, put it on cruise control for a few rounds.
I would be more than happy if given that as a platform to build on, I can see a lot of fun to be had with that team. I'll be keen to see where you land come the MBRs, great job.

 

[Pieman17]

I think I’ve narrowed it down to two trade options.

1.
OUT: Steele, McGovern, Hough
IN: Cripps, English, Stephens

2.
OUT: Whitfield, McGovern, Berry
IN: Skinner, English, Cripps

I’m not really keen on trading out Steele or Berry but think one has to go to fit in Cripps who I have as a ‘must have’. Option 2 means I I have to field 3 of McCartin, Gibcus, Hinge, Skinner, SDK which is not ideal for obvious reasons.

Any thoughts ?

 

[stephen]

I think I’ve narrowed it down to two trade options.

1.
OUT: Steele, McGovern, Hough
IN: Cripps, English, Stephens

2.
OUT: Whitfield, McGovern, Berry
IN: Skinner, English, Cripps

I’m not really keen on trading out Steele or Berry but think one has to go to fit in Cripps who I have as a ‘must have’. Option 2 means I I have to field 3 of McCartin, Gibcus, Hinge, Skinner, SDK which is not ideal for obvious reasons.

Any thoughts ?

I like the first one. Can't say for sure without seeing your team that it is the best of all options, but definitely the first one of those two.

 

[Pieman17]

I like the first one. Can't say for sure without seeing your team that it is the best of all options, but definitely the first one of those two.