Strategy 2022: Round 4 Trades

[Bermi]

On what basis?

What other teams will effectively tag Miller though? GWS is almost the only team that does a brutal hard tag these days...

I would hardly say it is a "likely" outcome.

There is talk on this forum that opposition AFL teams can see that tagging Miller is effective in reducing his influence on a game, so they could adopt similar tactics.

It doesn't have to be a hard tag to reduce Miller's high SC points scoring.

Even this round's game against Carlton, they have a good tagger in Hewett, Geelong has O'Connor, North has Turner, Port Adelaide and St. Kilda tag, J.Nelson from West Coast has tagged in the past.

That's why I said likely.

 

[Peter56]

Thoughts on these trades?

 

[PC]

There is talk on this forum that opposition AFL teams can see that tagging Miller is effective in reducing his influence on a game, so they could adopt similar tactics.

It doesn't have to be a hard tag to reduce Miller's high SC points scoring.

Even this round's game against Carlton, they have a good tagger in Hewett, Geelong has O'Connor, North has Turner, Port Adelaide and St. Kilda tag, J.Nelson from West Coast has tagged in the past.

That's why I said likely.

GWS had to use two players to tag Miller out of the game. Says as much about Miller as it does GWS.

Very much doubt better sides will put as much work into him, they will just smash the rest of GCS in the knowledge Miller can't do everything.

 

[Snowman]

Thoughts on these trades?

View attachment 42383

By all means find a way to bring in Martin, he’s as close to a no brainer as we are likely to get. But the Berry to Shiel move I’m not really a fan of. Just doesn’t seem worth it in my eyes

 

[Bermi]

GWS had to use two players to tag Miller out of the game. Says as much about Miller as it does GWS.

Very much doubt better sides will put as much work into him, they will just smash the rest of GCS in the knowledge Miller can't do everything.

Thanks for that, logic says don't trade, but the gut is a powerful force

 

[stephen]

Thoughts on these trades?

View attachment 42383

Stephens to Martin probably yes, assuming you don't have a better way of getting him.

Berry to Shiel a definite no for me. Don't hate the Shiel pick in a vaccuum but think he performs a similar role in your team to what Berry is already doing. Doubt Shiel makes much more cash than Berry from here (if any). If Berry stays in his current range he's an easy first upgrade. If he improves then all the better.

 

[Montyjnr]

There is talk on this forum that opposition AFL teams can see that tagging Miller is effective in reducing his influence on a game, so they could adopt similar tactics.

It doesn't have to be a hard tag to reduce Miller's high SC points scoring.

Even this round's game against Carlton, they have a good tagger in Hewett, Geelong has O'Connor, North has Turner, Port Adelaide and St. Kilda tag, J.Nelson from West Coast has tagged in the past.

That's why I said likely.

Yeah I'd back Miller in to break those 1v1 tags.

 

[arpod]

What about?
View attachment 42378

Interesting one. Mentioned it in the ruck thread, but last couple of years he has averaged 95 when he's been the main / equal ruck. Not a large sample size, but includes a 45. Numbers are in the pic attached. Could assume he's improved, but questions are a) whether it is enough, and b) whether he can keep the sole ruck spot. And obviously those two questions are correlated.

 

[stephen]

I'd still ask why you picked him over the alternatives?

I'm going to guess the main reasons are his average over the last 3 years and his potential for DPP.

The DPP side is stronger than it looked when you picked him, he's now a very decent chance of getting it for round 6, Ryder has come back sooner than expected.

The scoring is not ideal but he's faced probably the two best 2nd ruck combinations in the league in Darcy/Meek and Nank/Soldo for those poor scores and those scores aren't anything surprising given his scoring history.

I just struggle to find the narrative that justifies him as a starting pick that has now changed to justify a trade. Basically the only reason you'd be trading him now is if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him and that a couple of bad games confirms that belief and honestly if you didn't think he was a 90+ player when you picked him, why the heck did you pick him over all the other options?

There's just a disconnect between any reason to start him, what's happened since and any reason to be trading him.

I think enough small things have changed to add up to him being a rational trade out for some teams, particularly in the context of him being a last-minute pick for many. Certainly none were unpredictable, but their confluence has turned the rub of the green against him.

For me, there were a few things I had in mind when picking him.

- that he'd be a 110-120 scorer while Ryder wasn't in the team.
- mixed messages about Ryder which with older players I always interpret as meaning he could be out significantly longer than stated
- least-worst option with English locked out and Preuss not playing RD1
- possible out of DPP

What changed?

- his first half against Freo double ruck combo was bad but defensible; his second half against just Meek was dire. As said by @locuslevylunacy it was bad enough that I assumed he was/is hampered in some way
- Ryder came back straight away
- but playing limited minutes and setting up in a way that makes me think Marshall still unlikely to get DPP in time for first changes; think getting DPP in RD12, in context of us all having mostly-finished teams by then, is nearly irrelevant
- English established as must-have forward imo which means even with DPP Marshall isn't unless he's a top 3 fwd in his own right
- Preuss selected sole ruck RD3 and played well, significantly raising opportunity cost of an underperforming premo in the R2 spot

 

[NT.Thunder]

On Miller - the guy is a gun and from what I saw teams would really need to put two on him and I just can't see that happening.
I think for trades this round and onwards, they really need to be to improve teams by bringing in keepers, the Berry to Shiel I'd only look at if you expect Shiel to be in yr team round 23. Same with my Berry to Green, I need to be confident that Green can continue to post mid keeper numbers and in doing so I may move Gawn to English and again English will need to be a keeper either forward or in the rucks.

Rookie correction, injury, suspension or concerned underperformed keepers the others to move on.

 

[Bermi]

On Miller - the guy is a gun and from what I saw teams would really need to put two on him and I just can't see that happening.
I think for trades this round and onwards, they really need to be to improve teams by bringing in keepers, the Berry to Shiel I'd only look at if you expect Shiel to be in yr team round 23. Same with my Berry to Green, I need to be confident that Green can continue to post mid keeper numbers and in doing so I may move Gawn to English and again English will need to be a keeper either forward or in the rucks.

Rookie correction, injury, suspension or concerned underperformed keepers the others to move on.

Interesting, in 3 rounds, Miller was tagged twice.
Rd1 WCE tagged him and he scored 137 SC pts.
Rd2 No tag and he scored 140
Rd3 double tagged and he scored 76

 

[NT.Thunder]

Interesting, in 3 rounds, Miller was tagged twice.
Rd1 WCE tagged him and he scored 137 SC pts.
Rd2 No tag and he scored 140
Rd3 double tagged and he scored 76

He just runs too hard, a joy to watch although as a non-owner it can be painful. Many players when tagged fail partly due to the psychology behind it all I reckon, Miller identifies it and works harder. One of my favourites.

 

[donnybuang]

I think enough small things have changed to add up to him being a rational trade out for some teams, particularly in the context of him being a last-minute pick for many. Certainly none were unpredictable, but their confluence has turned the rub of the green against him.

For me, there were a few things I had in mind when picking him.

- that he'd be a 110-120 scorer while Ryder wasn't in the team.
- mixed messages about Ryder which with older players I always interpret as meaning he could be out significantly longer than stated
- least-worst option with English locked out and Preuss not playing RD1
- possible out of DPP

What changed?

- his first half against Freo double ruck combo was bad but defensible; his second half against just Meek was dire. As said by @locuslevylunacy it was bad enough that I assumed he was/is hampered in some way
- Ryder came back straight away
- but playing limited minutes and setting up in a way that makes me think Marshall still unlikely to get DPP in time for first changes; think getting DPP in RD12, in context of us all having mostly-finished teams by then, is nearly irrelevant
- English established as must-have forward imo which means even with DPP Marshall isn't unless he's a top 3 fwd in his own right
- Preuss selected sole ruck RD3 and played well, significantly raising opportunity cost of an underperforming premo in the R2 spot

Yes, I thought Ryder was out longer term. My fault, but I need to fix it now.

 

[IDIG]

I'm so out of touch wtih SC this year and like every year, i've done myself a mischief with too many mid pricers and chasing points. What do you guys think? Sit tight or get creative? I actually have no idea how bad or ok my team is lol

 

[NT.Thunder]

I'm so out of touch wtih SC this year and like every year, i've done myself a mischief with too many mid pricers and chasing points. What do you guys think? Sit tight or get creative? I actually have no idea how bad or ok my team is lol

View attachment 42386

I'd sit tight, I like the team and could go big if it all clicks. I just think that yr too mid-priced deep to go changing the structure. I love the Mills pick, he'll come good.

I like the team, offers something very unique in a unique season.

 

[IDIG]

I'd sit tight, I like the team and could go big if it all clicks. I just think that yr too mid-priced deep to go changing the structure. I love the Mills pick, he'll come good.

I like the team, offers something very unique in a unique season.

Thanks mate. Yeah went as far left field as i could and couldn't quite come back to reality enough to get Cripps and Dunks lol. Probably being a bit stubborn with Cripps now i think but no interest in bringing him in anymore.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Thanks mate. Yeah went as far left field as i could and couldn't quite come back to reality enough to get Cripps and Dunks lol. Probably being a bit stubborn with Cripps now i think but no interest in bringing him in anymore.

You've got plenty of options to get him in if you want to or Green - the only guys I'd probably move on would be Xerri or JHF to free up cash and move to another premium but like I said, if that team clicks it'll go big. Probably going to have that big standard deviation between scores each week so buckle in 🤣

 

[Feerits Elf]

I'm so out of touch wtih SC this year and like every year, i've done myself a mischief with too many mid pricers and chasing points. What do you guys think? Sit tight or get creative? I actually have no idea how bad or ok my team is lol

View attachment 42386

Looks bog standard to me in the right places mate, the only "off" looking picks are Parish and Mills in the mids (over say Cripps and a Macrae/Steele/Oliver/Trac etc. for the same money) but you picked them as POD keepers so stick fat.

Fading Dunkley is ... different

May unique too, be interesting to see what the addition of Lever does.

Lack of Brodie/Xerri/JHF might start to hurt if they get a spike score and restart the cash generation again.

You might need a plan for the rucks if Preuss levels off in scoring and Jackson is splitting points with Gawn.

 

[IDIG]

You've got plenty of options to get him in if you want to or Green - the only guys I'd probably move on would be Xerri or JHF to free up cash and move to another premium but like I said, if that team clicks it'll go big. Probably going to have that big standard deviation between scores each week so buckle in 🤣

Didn't Green catch us all off guard (well he caught me off guard but i did next to no sc preseason) but my mate had him in his team and i was like *** why is he in there..then bang.

I'm kinda keen on Wright for some reason..bit of a de bruyn type hail mary but don't think i can get him in, without wasting a trade or two when i need to get him bakc out lol

 

[Deeman1]

After some opinions please:

Current team $431,900 ITB 3 trades used:

Short, Ridley, Whitfiled, Hewett, Hinge, McCartin (Gibcus, De Konig)
Macrae, Neale, Jelly, Cripps, Rowell, Dacios, JHF, Ward (Stephens, MacDonald, Owens)
Grundy, English (Benning)
Dunkley, Butters, Coniglio, Brodie, Xerri, Hayes (Rachele, Durdin)

Option A:
Rachele and Owens to Martin and Clarry (leaves $13,700 ITB)

Option B:
Stephens and Owens to Martin and Green (leaves $146,700 ITB)

Martin has to come in, but just a question as to whom goes out.

Do you think I can justify (given the rookie situtation) going straight up to Clarry or should I take the value option?

If I trade Owens and Stephens I can get up to Steele, but not Miller.

Thoughts?