Analysis 2023 Preseason Games
- Thread starter wogitalia
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Gold Coast vs GWS
General - Watched 3 quarters. Solid hitout for the first half, GC fell right off in the 3rd though on just about every metric. Both sides relatively strong so a pretty good indicator of sides and roles. Conditions were good which also helps gauge things.
Giants - Were the better side for the majority of the contest, some Richmond elements for sure with a lot of run off half back and no real focus on winning clearances, more intent on surging it forward and then attempting to set up behind the ball. Think they'd be very happy with it and some good signs all round for them, could see the confidence grow as it worked as well.
Coniglio - Great role, did cop a knee knock in Q2 that was tested for the major injuries but came back out and continued to wax. He looked really good and a tick on everything except his dreaded durability issues. Looks set for a big season in that role and I walk away with confirmation of what he is. Durability is a concern but otherwise he's a top 5 forward type even after DPP changes. Looks like he didn't play Q4 from the stats.
Greene - Role was no good, still that permanent forward. I expect he bounces back towards the low 90s range that he's generally been at for that role, maybe even to high 90s but that's not good enough this year, imo.
Whitfield - Role was as expected, purely off HB. He played well, thought he'd actually be a much higher score than he had from the eye test. IMO, and I've said it before, he's not relevant until he gets DPP. Much more relevant in draft leagues where you can factor in DPP a lot more in over-drafting a guy. Looked fit and played well but he's just not a premium midfield option.
Ash - If he had FWD status, then maybe he's in play but looks set to return to the HB line and will rebound a lot. He's the third guy though, that is pretty clear.
Ward - Played HF pretty much exclusively, only CBA I had for him was when Coniglio was off getting tested. Was very low impact on the game.
Wehr - Played wing, played well. Will improve but not enough.
Preuss - Pure ruck role and he played pretty well albeit scored terribly, definitely hasn't adjusted to the modern non-contact form of the sport and the suspension risk is higher than ever but I thought he was good. Don't think you can pick him though as just not reliable enough but wouldn't surprise me if he had a big year as the #1 ruck without all the sharing and low TOG issues. Looks like he also didn't play Q4 to me from stats and TOG number.
Green - He was great, role was pure and he used it well. Exactly what you'd expect from him. Low TOG not ideal as really want to see him show off a tank and everyone already knew that he can score big points quickly, it's being able to play enough when teams do put work into him or things aren't going well. Also has to be noted that obviously the GCS midfield was pretty weak without Touk and he's a strong matchup against them anyway but definitely a tick for those considering and no real definitive answers for those on the fence. Role will be there to start the season, that's step one.
Cumming - He was prolific, same role as last year, primary rebounder with some intercept work. He's not personally on my radar as I think Ash and Whitfield will hurt him a bit but if he was on your radar you'd have seen exactly what you wanted today.
Taylor/Aleer/Idun - Playing defensive roles as you'd expect, I thought Aleer was very good, much better than Haynes but expect seniority will apply.
Callaghan - Role wasn't great, pure wing but was hoping he'd get some genuine midfield minutes, showed what he can do on his good days but the bad days for wingers can be pretty ordinary and it really lived on his wing early in the game. I can't see him scoring much more than this from this role, he probably doesn't kick 2 goals all season and he wont get much easier matchups than he got today. I love him as a prospect but didn't like the role and I'm definitely not convinced of him as a pick. He'll make cash if he stays fit but at his price you're really looking in the 75+ range as a minimum and ideally 80-85. For a comparison Karl Amon was the highest scoring winger last year at 92 (and he had HB time to inflate that), the top pure wingers like Daicos, Langdon, Smith, Aish and Acres were all in that 75-82 type range, what I'm saying is that it's a bad SC role and a big ask for a 2nd year player. On a positive is that he can score like this and the good games can produce a spike if he can get a couple in a row going. Coin flip decision.
Stone - Played a solid game and really grew as it went on. HF role and is definitely on the fringe of the best 22 but could score decently from the role if he can hang around. He's a good player so there's a chance. He's mostly up against the senior low talent guys which is always a tough battle to pick, coaches tend to trust the senior guys but when there's a big talent variance sometimes the trust factor isn't enough. Worth watching, would be a bench guy though and there's a ton of those.
Haynes - I know some are looking at him but all I see is a washed up player, I was actually pretty shocked by his score to be honest, it sure didn't feel like a strong ratio game as he kept butchering it, didn't help that even his good kicks were mongrels that got lucky which is always hard to translate into "great SC" play. He just looks slow and lacking in confidence to me, Aleer looked much better in the role. He might make cash because it's a decent fantasy role but it wouldn't surprise me if he's out of the side by round 4 either.
Kelly - Role was excellent, pure inside midfield role that you want. Basically they had a 4.5 man rotation through the guts with Perryman and O'Halloran the 1.5 on top of the known quantities. He's capable of 120+ in that role as demonstrated here. Definitely a big tick. We all know what he is, a tremendous talent who has struggled with his body and is too willing to play awful roles for bad coaches, perhaps he can finally start to reach his potential this year? Gutsy pick but could be a great one, he's got a pretty pure SC style when playing this role.
Hogan/Riccardi/Himmelberg - Playing the KPF roles, Himmelberg looked completely lost, Hogan looked great and Riccardi did some nice things and was the 2nd ruck for the moments they used one.
O'Halloran - Very interesting role for him, played mostly as the extra midfielder with some small stints forward, could be a very decent role. Probably too expensive and hasn't really shown the scoring ability in the past but the role is good. Would be fringe 22 also though.
Fahey - Another DEF/MID option appears. He was really good, much better than his score indicated. Nice HB role and looked comfortable at the level. I don't see anyone that's obviously missing from their team that takes the spot. Could be one of the best rookies in that role, especially the way they were looking to play. Would be borderline fieldable as well as it's a good role and he's got good fantasy skills. Will be watching for him round one to get the call up, I think he could be better than most of the names that have been talked about for the bench.
Perryman - Good role as the 4th mid, played well. Not fantasy relevant imo, just doesn't really have that A+ area to his game to push him in fantasy, he's just decent at most things.
Lloyd/Kennedy - Both playing forward, bot were solid, the aforementioned experienced low talent guys that Stone would be against (along with Ward).
General - Watched 3 quarters. Solid hitout for the first half, GC fell right off in the 3rd though on just about every metric. Both sides relatively strong so a pretty good indicator of sides and roles. Conditions were good which also helps gauge things.
Giants - Were the better side for the majority of the contest, some Richmond elements for sure with a lot of run off half back and no real focus on winning clearances, more intent on surging it forward and then attempting to set up behind the ball. Think they'd be very happy with it and some good signs all round for them, could see the confidence grow as it worked as well.
Coniglio - Great role, did cop a knee knock in Q2 that was tested for the major injuries but came back out and continued to wax. He looked really good and a tick on everything except his dreaded durability issues. Looks set for a big season in that role and I walk away with confirmation of what he is. Durability is a concern but otherwise he's a top 5 forward type even after DPP changes. Looks like he didn't play Q4 from the stats.
Greene - Role was no good, still that permanent forward. I expect he bounces back towards the low 90s range that he's generally been at for that role, maybe even to high 90s but that's not good enough this year, imo.
Whitfield - Role was as expected, purely off HB. He played well, thought he'd actually be a much higher score than he had from the eye test. IMO, and I've said it before, he's not relevant until he gets DPP. Much more relevant in draft leagues where you can factor in DPP a lot more in over-drafting a guy. Looked fit and played well but he's just not a premium midfield option.
Ash - If he had FWD status, then maybe he's in play but looks set to return to the HB line and will rebound a lot. He's the third guy though, that is pretty clear.
Ward - Played HF pretty much exclusively, only CBA I had for him was when Coniglio was off getting tested. Was very low impact on the game.
Wehr - Played wing, played well. Will improve but not enough.
Preuss - Pure ruck role and he played pretty well albeit scored terribly, definitely hasn't adjusted to the modern non-contact form of the sport and the suspension risk is higher than ever but I thought he was good. Don't think you can pick him though as just not reliable enough but wouldn't surprise me if he had a big year as the #1 ruck without all the sharing and low TOG issues. Looks like he also didn't play Q4 to me from stats and TOG number.
Green - He was great, role was pure and he used it well. Exactly what you'd expect from him. Low TOG not ideal as really want to see him show off a tank and everyone already knew that he can score big points quickly, it's being able to play enough when teams do put work into him or things aren't going well. Also has to be noted that obviously the GCS midfield was pretty weak without Touk and he's a strong matchup against them anyway but definitely a tick for those considering and no real definitive answers for those on the fence. Role will be there to start the season, that's step one.
Cumming - He was prolific, same role as last year, primary rebounder with some intercept work. He's not personally on my radar as I think Ash and Whitfield will hurt him a bit but if he was on your radar you'd have seen exactly what you wanted today.
Taylor/Aleer/Idun - Playing defensive roles as you'd expect, I thought Aleer was very good, much better than Haynes but expect seniority will apply.
Callaghan - Role wasn't great, pure wing but was hoping he'd get some genuine midfield minutes, showed what he can do on his good days but the bad days for wingers can be pretty ordinary and it really lived on his wing early in the game. I can't see him scoring much more than this from this role, he probably doesn't kick 2 goals all season and he wont get much easier matchups than he got today. I love him as a prospect but didn't like the role and I'm definitely not convinced of him as a pick. He'll make cash if he stays fit but at his price you're really looking in the 75+ range as a minimum and ideally 80-85. For a comparison Karl Amon was the highest scoring winger last year at 92 (and he had HB time to inflate that), the top pure wingers like Daicos, Langdon, Smith, Aish and Acres were all in that 75-82 type range, what I'm saying is that it's a bad SC role and a big ask for a 2nd year player. On a positive is that he can score like this and the good games can produce a spike if he can get a couple in a row going. Coin flip decision.
Stone - Played a solid game and really grew as it went on. HF role and is definitely on the fringe of the best 22 but could score decently from the role if he can hang around. He's a good player so there's a chance. He's mostly up against the senior low talent guys which is always a tough battle to pick, coaches tend to trust the senior guys but when there's a big talent variance sometimes the trust factor isn't enough. Worth watching, would be a bench guy though and there's a ton of those.
Haynes - I know some are looking at him but all I see is a washed up player, I was actually pretty shocked by his score to be honest, it sure didn't feel like a strong ratio game as he kept butchering it, didn't help that even his good kicks were mongrels that got lucky which is always hard to translate into "great SC" play. He just looks slow and lacking in confidence to me, Aleer looked much better in the role. He might make cash because it's a decent fantasy role but it wouldn't surprise me if he's out of the side by round 4 either.
Kelly - Role was excellent, pure inside midfield role that you want. Basically they had a 4.5 man rotation through the guts with Perryman and O'Halloran the 1.5 on top of the known quantities. He's capable of 120+ in that role as demonstrated here. Definitely a big tick. We all know what he is, a tremendous talent who has struggled with his body and is too willing to play awful roles for bad coaches, perhaps he can finally start to reach his potential this year? Gutsy pick but could be a great one, he's got a pretty pure SC style when playing this role.
Hogan/Riccardi/Himmelberg - Playing the KPF roles, Himmelberg looked completely lost, Hogan looked great and Riccardi did some nice things and was the 2nd ruck for the moments they used one.
O'Halloran - Very interesting role for him, played mostly as the extra midfielder with some small stints forward, could be a very decent role. Probably too expensive and hasn't really shown the scoring ability in the past but the role is good. Would be fringe 22 also though.
Fahey - Another DEF/MID option appears. He was really good, much better than his score indicated. Nice HB role and looked comfortable at the level. I don't see anyone that's obviously missing from their team that takes the spot. Could be one of the best rookies in that role, especially the way they were looking to play. Would be borderline fieldable as well as it's a good role and he's got good fantasy skills. Will be watching for him round one to get the call up, I think he could be better than most of the names that have been talked about for the bench.
Perryman - Good role as the 4th mid, played well. Not fantasy relevant imo, just doesn't really have that A+ area to his game to push him in fantasy, he's just decent at most things.
Lloyd/Kennedy - Both playing forward, bot were solid, the aforementioned experienced low talent guys that Stone would be against (along with Ward).
Suns - Hard to read this one, down their best midfielder, fell to pieces after King went off (not that he did much) and won in the areas that you'd expect them to win in and still didn't translate. It's interesting for a side that's been bad for so long it still doesn't really feel like they've found guys with outrageous talent, you just don't watch any of them and think they're special, some work hard, some are hard as nails and all that but they just lack talent and when Touk is out that is even more pronounced. Suns had a lot more key guys out which does make all of this more unreliable.
Chol/Casboult/Jeffrey - Playing as the KPF, looks like a 3 way battle, for mine Jeffrey and Chol should really be in the battle as they are fairly similar players while Casboult gives them a marking presence they don't otherwise have but interesting choices.
Flanders - Was very surprised by his score as he felt pretty underwhelming, was very surprised checking back at the HT score as it felt like he improved a lot in Q3 after getting more midfield time but he had 45 at the half so only slightly better in H2. Role wasn't great, mostly HF with only a few midfield rotations but it was a higher HF role at least. At his price he doesn't have to produce keeper numbers which definitely makes him interesting. I'd be shocked if he's higher than a 90 in the role he's playing, 80 is really the target point and that's probably within reach albeit on the higher end of what I'd expect. GWS beat them soundly but are still probably one of the weaker sides going around. Still, he scored great and that's what you want to see given he's done it all preseason. Definitely a viable option and probably almost certainly going to have on-field level scoring more consistently than the cheaper options. I'd say he's probably worth the 40k on an Allen on exposed form, not quite the same JS but significantly better role.
Davies - He had the better role out of he and Flanders but I think the Touk factor is big here, Flanders played a role that you'd expect holds up more or less while Davies was much more in Swallow's role while Swallow stepped into the Touk void. Ultimately Touk will harm both Davies and Flanders. Davies I think is hurt more though and given he scored worse, you'd lean Flanders at a slightly lower price.
Holman - Played HF this week, not relevant other than taking a spot.
Ainsworth - Forward as expected.
Ballard/Collins/Graham - Defense as expected.
Lukosius - Started wing and then pushed forward, was not good.
Anderson - He looks slim and fit, he does not look like he's worked on his kicking. He'll be flirting with the premium range this year, imo. Much better DT prospect. Probably showed less than you'd want if considering him but low TOG wont be normal and his ratio was incredible for him.
Berry - He's cheap and thus he's relevant. He's playing a very fringe role, some wing, some forward but doesn't look clear best 22 and neither role has showed any real scoring ability in. Definitely could be a bench option but hopefully there will be better.
Rowell - He was their best for mine, not great but he was good in the contest and was much better finding some easy ball around the ground that past years. I still think he's a better pick than Anderson in SC but I don't think either makes the jump this year.
Long - Played HB as expected, took some kick-ins, played well, good score. Think it's more or less in line with what he'll produce most weeks, which isn't close to good enough from his price point, I'd imagine he shares a lot more with Weller, Powell and Budarick when they return than the Farrar, Constable and MacPherson group right now as well.
Swallow - Stepped into the main midfield group, very preseason game for him.
Witts - Was excellent, Preuss is a tough matchup as one of the few who matches him for size but he covered the ground well, positioned pretty well and did plenty. Very low TOG suggests he didn't play much of, if any, of the 4th to me. Big tick, looks in ripping shape. Amazing that we've gone from no ruck options to multiple in a weekend...
Constable - Rock solid game, was nothing special about his game and think he can consistently produce these scores. Took a few kick-ins, was looking for the ball. Just doing what you'd want. Question is basically how long until the senior guys come back and can he demand a spot by then. Positive is Weller can play other roles at least if the group is working well. He's a tough one, he's probably the best on-field option but his long term job security and thus cash generation are weaker than most. Ultimately you have to pick him, he's the Nic Martin level this year where he can play well and hold his spot and be among the very top scorers but wouldn't shock me if he's done by round 4 either...
King - He actually played really well, was pushing high up the ground and being an option. Only played the first half and didn't have good service, that said, this is pretty indicative of how he'll score. I struggle to see his JS being worth the premium given his scoring ability isn't any better than the 120k guys.
Hollands - Solid wing role, was decent.
MacPherson - Sneaky good option. Has D/F which is very valuable and I don't think this game was even remotely a fluke for him. Playing HB and he looks the leader of the rebounding group ahead of Constable and Long. Taking kick-ins and working for the ball in space. At 310k, 85 is the bare minimum though so probably are better bets but I wouldn't be surprised if he does something similar to a Rioli or Coleman last year, similar role and progression for him. Does have that same issue as the other guys that their best 3 defenders are all returning from injury and can they play well enough to hold the spots and then the roles if they do. Ultimately that last factor probably kills him. Definitely a VERY strong draft option though.
Chol/Casboult/Jeffrey - Playing as the KPF, looks like a 3 way battle, for mine Jeffrey and Chol should really be in the battle as they are fairly similar players while Casboult gives them a marking presence they don't otherwise have but interesting choices.
Flanders - Was very surprised by his score as he felt pretty underwhelming, was very surprised checking back at the HT score as it felt like he improved a lot in Q3 after getting more midfield time but he had 45 at the half so only slightly better in H2. Role wasn't great, mostly HF with only a few midfield rotations but it was a higher HF role at least. At his price he doesn't have to produce keeper numbers which definitely makes him interesting. I'd be shocked if he's higher than a 90 in the role he's playing, 80 is really the target point and that's probably within reach albeit on the higher end of what I'd expect. GWS beat them soundly but are still probably one of the weaker sides going around. Still, he scored great and that's what you want to see given he's done it all preseason. Definitely a viable option and probably almost certainly going to have on-field level scoring more consistently than the cheaper options. I'd say he's probably worth the 40k on an Allen on exposed form, not quite the same JS but significantly better role.
Davies - He had the better role out of he and Flanders but I think the Touk factor is big here, Flanders played a role that you'd expect holds up more or less while Davies was much more in Swallow's role while Swallow stepped into the Touk void. Ultimately Touk will harm both Davies and Flanders. Davies I think is hurt more though and given he scored worse, you'd lean Flanders at a slightly lower price.
Holman - Played HF this week, not relevant other than taking a spot.
Ainsworth - Forward as expected.
Ballard/Collins/Graham - Defense as expected.
Lukosius - Started wing and then pushed forward, was not good.
Anderson - He looks slim and fit, he does not look like he's worked on his kicking. He'll be flirting with the premium range this year, imo. Much better DT prospect. Probably showed less than you'd want if considering him but low TOG wont be normal and his ratio was incredible for him.
Berry - He's cheap and thus he's relevant. He's playing a very fringe role, some wing, some forward but doesn't look clear best 22 and neither role has showed any real scoring ability in. Definitely could be a bench option but hopefully there will be better.
Rowell - He was their best for mine, not great but he was good in the contest and was much better finding some easy ball around the ground that past years. I still think he's a better pick than Anderson in SC but I don't think either makes the jump this year.
Long - Played HB as expected, took some kick-ins, played well, good score. Think it's more or less in line with what he'll produce most weeks, which isn't close to good enough from his price point, I'd imagine he shares a lot more with Weller, Powell and Budarick when they return than the Farrar, Constable and MacPherson group right now as well.
Swallow - Stepped into the main midfield group, very preseason game for him.
Witts - Was excellent, Preuss is a tough matchup as one of the few who matches him for size but he covered the ground well, positioned pretty well and did plenty. Very low TOG suggests he didn't play much of, if any, of the 4th to me. Big tick, looks in ripping shape. Amazing that we've gone from no ruck options to multiple in a weekend...
Constable - Rock solid game, was nothing special about his game and think he can consistently produce these scores. Took a few kick-ins, was looking for the ball. Just doing what you'd want. Question is basically how long until the senior guys come back and can he demand a spot by then. Positive is Weller can play other roles at least if the group is working well. He's a tough one, he's probably the best on-field option but his long term job security and thus cash generation are weaker than most. Ultimately you have to pick him, he's the Nic Martin level this year where he can play well and hold his spot and be among the very top scorers but wouldn't shock me if he's done by round 4 either...
King - He actually played really well, was pushing high up the ground and being an option. Only played the first half and didn't have good service, that said, this is pretty indicative of how he'll score. I struggle to see his JS being worth the premium given his scoring ability isn't any better than the 120k guys.
Hollands - Solid wing role, was decent.
MacPherson - Sneaky good option. Has D/F which is very valuable and I don't think this game was even remotely a fluke for him. Playing HB and he looks the leader of the rebounding group ahead of Constable and Long. Taking kick-ins and working for the ball in space. At 310k, 85 is the bare minimum though so probably are better bets but I wouldn't be surprised if he does something similar to a Rioli or Coleman last year, similar role and progression for him. Does have that same issue as the other guys that their best 3 defenders are all returning from injury and can they play well enough to hold the spots and then the roles if they do. Ultimately that last factor probably kills him. Definitely a VERY strong draft option though.
Always thought hed have to jump one of Bowey and Rivers to get a game and he didn't, good depth option for the Dees but don't see how hes a Round 1 starter.
I actually thought Chandler was alright kicks straight and he gets to 60.
Dont have Laurie in their best 30 surprised he played at all in all honesty.
I actually thought Chandler was alright kicks straight and he gets to 60.
Dont have Laurie in their best 30 surprised he played at all in all honesty.
