Strategy 2023: Round 4 Trades

[Locky27]

I'd be holding Merrett if I had him. Regression to the mean is definitely a thing in Supercoach. He will bounce back. LDU has probably had his 2 best games of the year already. The amount of media hype around him after 2 good games is crazy, declaring him the best midfielder in the comp and all that.

Here's a cautionary tale: Brent Stanton in 2012 was averaging 137 after 8 rounds, everyone in the media saying he's the real deal. Ended up averaging 82 for the remainder of the season.

As for Day, I'd say his highest score is probably behind him now, and he got it against a North Melbourne side with no midfield. But McGrath isn't a proven premium like Merrett, so if you want to get rid of him, it's not he worst idea.

 

[Inside50]

Too late to grab Long or still value there?

Can still go there. I’m probably grabbing chandler

 

[DojoWarrior]

Would love some thoughts on 2 trade options after a disaster last week (Darcy > Cameron)!

Option 1) Chesser + Cameron > Tylar Young and Grundy
Option 2) Bruce + Cameron > Will Phillips and Grundy via DPP

Bruce has BE of -2 and will play while Chesser is 7 and out for a few weeks, but feel Phillips will be a much better option than Young.

 

[XabiFernando]

What's a good estimate of the magic number right now? Just so I can try and form an opinion on if English types are good value for their price or not.

 

[Montyjnr]

Does anyone see merit in a Laird > Josh Kelly sideways trade IF the 80K it frees up allows me to turn Sean Darcy into English & Callaghan into Hopper?

 

[XabiFernando]

Would love some thoughts on 2 trade options after a disaster last week (Darcy > Cameron)!

Option 1) Chesser + Cameron > Tylar Young and Grundy
Option 2) Bruce + Cameron > Will Phillips and Grundy via DPP

Bruce has BE of -2 and will play while Chesser is 7 and out for a few weeks, but feel Phillips will be a much better option than Young.

Most of the feel in this thread is that young will be dropped when Tarrant is back, but someone (possibly a tiger fan) suggested gibcus might make way instead.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Why do you think he's trolling?
Looks like a genuine answer to me, and Macca seems like a straight up person to me.

Agree with this. Absoulutey stumped. An apology or justification needed here. Apologies if it'd happened and I've missed it

 

[Zim^zuM]

Still not sure what to do about DC this week.

I faded English for Darcy at the start of the season on the basis of durability more than anything else, so after 3 rounds I'm still a bit reluctant to bring him in for that reason (especially at a higher price). On the flipside, if he stays injury free he will clearly be top 2 even if he reverts to the mean a bit.

Witts is a little bit uninspiring, also carries injury risk (maybe less than English) but also doesn't have any notable upside.

Grundy is value, especially v WC this week, but it just feels like a kick the can down the road and locking in a future ruck trade even if he makes say 100k.

Darcy I'm staying away from, I accept he put up a big score on the weekend but that was against a very weak WC and if that's his best case I think I can live with staying away.

Nank looks like slotting into that bronze medal spot in the rucks, and the only reason I'm considering him is because Witts/English would require a second trade.

The most likely second trade would be Worpel to Phillips/Rowston, but I'm not that bearish on Worpel given the role is still there and the BE still achievable. The upside to the second trade is that it gets McKenzie back on field for me (currently at M9) so maybe fixes some structural issues.

I've done similar. Avoided English for durability. Took Gawn. Then Gawn to DC. Now I'm ignoring durability and just taking the best guy. The lesson here is to have just started English and worry about a missed game when it comes. Which it may not.

 

[MacBomb23]

I'd be holding Merrett if I had him. Regression to the mean is definitely a thing in Supercoach. He will bounce back. LDU has probably had his 2 best games of the year already. The amount of media hype around him after 2 good games is crazy, declaring him the best midfielder in the comp and all that.

Here's a cautionary tale: Brent Stanton in 2012 was averaging 137 after 8 rounds, everyone in the media saying he's the real deal. Ended up averaging 82 for the remainder of the season.

As for Day, I'd say his highest score is probably behind him now, and he got it against a North Melbourne side with no midfield. But McGrath isn't a proven premium like Merrett, so if you want to get rid of him, it's not he worst idea.

Fair call thanks for that. Any ideas on what to do with Bruhn? He needs to go one way or the other. I guess another option is to downgrade him to a rookie but then I'll have a rookie and chandler on field which isnt great. Have 75k in bank.

 

[donnybuang]

I don't know how worth it Phillips is. His JS is not so good IMO. He played last week because Simpkin and LDU were out and wasn't so great.

I like the idea of moving a Gulden/Ridley sort of level upwards to a form player like what was suggested earlier around LDU/Oliver, but your option of two mid-pricers is very risky.

When is Simpkin due back. I'm tempted by Phillips, but want to see if he makes the team at full strength

 

[Connoisseur]

Why do you think he's trolling?
Looks like a genuine answer to me, and Macca seems like a straight up person to me.

Agree with this. Absoulutey stumped. An apology or justification needed here. Apologies if it'd happened and I've missed it

I gather this would be due to the recommendation of trading Bontempelli to Oliver. Given Setterfield’s status as a quick stepping stone to a premium and no immediate holes to fix, as it seems counter-intuitive to chase lost points by switching Bontempelli to Oliver as this opportunity cost would have likely been factored in to initial team selection. A bit of patience whilst the rookies and mid-pricers appreciate will allow Setterfield to Oliver very shortly and a more efficient use of trades.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

When is Simpkin due back. I'm tempted by Phillips, but want to see if he makes the team at full strength

One week suspension so this week along with LDU.

 

[donnybuang]

One week suspension so this week along with LDU.

Perfect

 

[Tails]

What's a good estimate of the magic number right now? Just so I can try and form an opinion on if English types are good value for their price or not.

I have it at approx 5225 ...

 

[XabiFernando]

I have it at approx 5225 ...

Thanks. That prices English at 118 which doesn't feel completely crazy given his scoring history and natural progression. Maybe it is worth the second trade to get him in, and deal with the injury if/when it comes as an injury trade.

 

[Locky27]

Fair call thanks for that. Any ideas on what to do with Bruhn? He needs to go one way or the other. I guess another option is to downgrade him to a rookie but then I'll have a rookie and chandler on field which isnt great. Have 75k in bank.

If McGrath to Day gets you the cash to go Bruhn to Ziebell, then I'd probably do that.

 

[Eagling]

????

Why do you think he's trolling?
Looks like a genuine answer to me, and Macca seems like a straight up person to me.

Cheers @Russty_ , thought maybe Eagling had mistakenly added my post but whom knows?

Agree with this. Absoulutey stumped. An apology or justification needed here. Apologies if it'd happened and I've missed it

I gather this would be due to the recommendation of trading Bontempelli to Oliver. Given Setterfield’s status as a quick stepping stone to a premium and no immediate holes to fix, as it seems counter-intuitive to chase lost points by switching Bontempelli to Oliver as this opportunity cost would have likely been factored in to initial team selection. A bit of patience whilst the rookies and mid-pricers appreciate will allow Setterfield to Oliver very shortly and a more efficient use of trades.

Alright, looks like I need to address this.

I've been in sites before where someone who doesn't play or rank well in Supercoach suddenly gets a very high rank and, of course, having 'lucked in' to that (though I'm not sure this applies to YearoftheCats), want to get advice. Sometimes, they can be perceived as arrogant or undeserving, and some (jealous, or wanting to cause issues), will take it upon themselves to give them unsound advice, because it can be an in-joke, as most veteran players will realise something is wrong, and the newbie won't. Now, I don't personally approve of this, and I didn't expect it to be happening on SCS.com, but there seemed to be a chance that it was. I felt it was less insulting to presume Macca's Marvels was trolling and not simply giving out genuine but extremely risky at best advice. Worpel to Buckley is a just understandable, and Bont to Oliver is barely fathomable. Together, they present a tremendous amount of probably unnecessary risk for a tenuous reward, at best.

 

[Zim^zuM]

I gather this would be due to the recommendation of trading Bontempelli to Oliver. Given Setterfield’s status as a quick stepping stone to a premium and no immediate holes to fix, as it seems counter-intuitive to chase lost points by switching Bontempelli to Oliver as this opportunity cost would have likely been factored in to initial team selection. A bit of patience whilst the rookies and mid-pricers appreciate will allow Setterfield to Oliver very shortly and a more efficient use of trades.

Many would agree with that as do I. However many might think bont to Oliver is a good move considering Melbourne's draw would be appealing with the extra trades, captain option, and the doggies looking cooked. To suggest it was a troll and go to another forum is a bit much hehe

 

[Zim^zuM]

Alright, looks like I need to address this.

I've been in sites before where someone who doesn't play or rank well in Supercoach suddenly gets a very high rank and, of course, having 'lucked in' to that (though I'm not sure this applies to YearoftheCats), want to get advice. Sometimes, they can be perceived as arrogant or undeserving, and some (jealous, or wanting to cause issues), will take it upon themselves to give them unsound advice, because it can be an in-joke, as most veteran players will realise something is wrong, and the newbie won't. Now, I don't personally approve of this, and I didn't expect it to be happening on SCS.com, but there seemed to be a chance that it was. I felt it was less insulting to presume Macca's Marvels was trolling and not simply giving out genuine but extremely risky at best advice. Worpel to Buckley is a just understandable, and Bont to Oliver is barely fathomable. Together, they present a tremendous amount of probably unnecessary risk for a tenuous reward, at best.

More than fine to disagree with the advice, by saying why. With how close things are at the top having Oliver x2 over the next month could make a huge difference. So while I have bont and won't entertain that move, doing it does have its appeal and isn't insulting to have the idea thrown around

 

[Old Big 'Ead]

I agree and don't want to convince you either way, because if I didn't think that English is a much better ruck option than Grundy I would probably trade JHF to LDU, but the 45 v the Pies cycles out after next week and he scored 93 v Sydney at the SCG for North in Round 4 last year.

You make a solid point re JHF's 45 dropping off. This is similar to Jones' 5 dropping off after Rd 3, so I might hold this week.

So I might go

Callghan > Rookie
Goulden > LDU/Kelly/Saad/Dawson/Sicily ??

Goulden's CBA's dropped last week, and Mills' rose, and he has not scored well against his next 2 opponents.

Which Rookie? Amartey/Phillips (if he appears to playing)/Rowsten/Michalanney/Long. Already have Chandler.

At this stage, I am leaning to a LDU or Saad, with Amartey as the rookie. Thoughts?