Position 2025: FORWARDS DISCUSSION
- Thread starter KLo30
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It's mental that of that list of 20 there is one I've had in a draft (JHF), two I've thought about in a draft (Rankine & Baker) and one that is about 20th on my watch list (Woods) and the rest don't even exist to me!
Curnow, Greene and Jackson are the only other names that I even think about as I read through the list and the latter two would take unique situations (Darcy out for long time, Greene playing pure midfield) that I think are less likely than likely. Maybe Miers if he was playing pure midfield? I can't think of any scenario that anyone else on the list sni*** my starting team considerations. I load the forwards and the scroll wheel goes whir a few times to clear that list of 20
Curnow, Greene and Jackson are the only other names that I even think about as I read through the list and the latter two would take unique situations (Darcy out for long time, Greene playing pure midfield) that I think are less likely than likely. Maybe Miers if he was playing pure midfield? I can't think of any scenario that anyone else on the list sni*** my starting team considerations. I load the forwards and the scroll wheel goes whir a few times to clear that list of 20
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Swearing
Everyone on Luke Jackson as a pick but he's consistently in the 90s and has been a top forward when the stocks are limited.
In previous years he was better value as ruck coverage, whereas the flex takes away from that this year. I can still see him being a top 10 forward again though.
In previous years he was better value as ruck coverage, whereas the flex takes away from that this year. I can still see him being a top 10 forward again though.
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100% this. He's a mediocre (I'm being kind) forward. He's prolific when rucking. 2 years straight of being two entirely different players if Darcy is playing or not, not a coincidence.
He's one to watch, if Darcy is out 8+, then he's a great starting option. If Darcy is lurking at round 1, then wait for the injury.
Maybe he'll get better but he needs to be about 30 points better than his average of the last two years with Darcy if picking him. That's a big ask.
He's one to watch, if Darcy is out 8+, then he's a great starting option. If Darcy is lurking at round 1, then wait for the injury.
Maybe he'll get better but he needs to be about 30 points better than his average of the last two years with Darcy if picking him. That's a big ask.
Phillipou to miss the start of the season, stress fracture to the fibula.
https://www.saints.com.au/news/1709852/injury-update
Looking like Sanders might come into my side.
https://www.saints.com.au/news/1709852/injury-update
Looking like Sanders might come into my side.
I concede the point about Darcy's impact, but until he (Darcy) shows he can stay on the park, Jackson remains relevant.
If what BB said above is true about him averaging 80 with Darcy, adding 15 points would likely be good enough for a top forward pick for the season, which over the past 2 seasons he has managed due to Darcy being out so often.
I likely won't be starting him, but will be keeping a close eye on big Sean to see how he's tracking!
If what BB said above is true about him averaging 80 with Darcy, adding 15 points would likely be good enough for a top forward pick for the season, which over the past 2 seasons he has managed due to Darcy being out so often.
I likely won't be starting him, but will be keeping a close eye on big Sean to see how he's tracking!
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Phillipou out definitely makes things interesting for the forwards and feel as though the more I look at the position the more potential value that I find. The issue is the ifs involved with a lot of this value and will be keeping a close on through the below potential mid pricer picks. Some are the obvious ones and some not so obvious;
Smith - hard to see him not making my team, we get a free sight in round 0 which helps.
Macrae - think he is a lock especially with Phillipou injury. Can't see him not being a big part of that on ball mix.
Parker - early indications are pointing to a prominent on ball role. If this holds will be hard not to select. Although with LDU, Sheezel, Simpkin, Wardlaw, McKercher and co it is hard to see it not being a HFF role.
Bolton - think he likely just plays forward with small stints on ball but that was enough for Rankine last year at a worse club so he is an option.
Sanders/Kennedy - we all know how well the mids score at the Dogs so if either of these two can break in then they will be good options.
Baker/Graham - new club and Yeo injury early do we see these two get that on ball role.
Simpkin - went at 93.5 post round 13 last season. Hard to know how that midfield mix shakes out though and feel he will be the sacrificial lamb although was made sole captain so maybe not.
Then there is a host of KPFs that might be worth a flyer in Darcy, Cameron, Hogan, Ryan, Thilthorpe and Curnow.
There is also a world where Wilson, Maric, Rachele, McInnes, Silvagni, Williams and Carrol could turn out to be good selections.
Pre season and round 0 will paint the picture, I hope.
Didn’t even mention Daniel who is just a complete lock!
Smith - hard to see him not making my team, we get a free sight in round 0 which helps.
Macrae - think he is a lock especially with Phillipou injury. Can't see him not being a big part of that on ball mix.
Parker - early indications are pointing to a prominent on ball role. If this holds will be hard not to select. Although with LDU, Sheezel, Simpkin, Wardlaw, McKercher and co it is hard to see it not being a HFF role.
Bolton - think he likely just plays forward with small stints on ball but that was enough for Rankine last year at a worse club so he is an option.
Sanders/Kennedy - we all know how well the mids score at the Dogs so if either of these two can break in then they will be good options.
Baker/Graham - new club and Yeo injury early do we see these two get that on ball role.
Simpkin - went at 93.5 post round 13 last season. Hard to know how that midfield mix shakes out though and feel he will be the sacrificial lamb although was made sole captain so maybe not.
Then there is a host of KPFs that might be worth a flyer in Darcy, Cameron, Hogan, Ryan, Thilthorpe and Curnow.
There is also a world where Wilson, Maric, Rachele, McInnes, Silvagni, Williams and Carrol could turn out to be good selections.
Pre season and round 0 will paint the picture, I hope.
Didn’t even mention Daniel who is just a complete lock!
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He needs at least 10 points improvement as a forward if you assume Darcy plays the whole season to break even on his starting price. He actually got worse last year both with and without Darcy, so not exactly a good trendline, this is mostly to do with Treacy well and truly passing him as a forward option and Amiss at least taking some targets away. Likely that Bolton will also hurt him in this year as another genuine forward target, even marking target given Bolton's leap.
Basically he averaged 87 in 2023 and 84 in 2024 with Darcy in the side (Reidy games it's an 84.4 so not a noteworthy difference). He averaged 118 and 106 without Darcy.
He definitely could improve and if Darcy isn't there for the start of the season (always possible) then he's a strong option. I'd say the wait and see is by far the better plan right now though until Darcy is done and even then, it would be a genuine question if they play Reidy or not. Despite him being mediocre as a forward he's still better than their other options as the 3rd tall by a long way and he's not awful, he's just not good either and he will still ruck as the #2 where he can rack up points very quickly. The problem is he's probably a 65 player as a pure forward so he needs a lot of ruck time to get to the levels needed as premium priced player. His bye is nice. Personally I much prefer Bolton if targeting a Docker forward, he's significantly cheaper than his best and they'll do everything to justify trading so much for him.
Obviously with Macrae already locking up one of that bye's spots, that's another factor. Especially given Boyd could still be fieldable by round 12 if he is the #1 ruck, Serong, Brayshaw, Sinclair, NWM, Ryan, Clark, Darcy and a couple of the Saints rookies also look like really decent options and who knows what happens with Marshall, he may well get FWD lose a ton of $$$ and then go back to the ruck and be an absolute must have, it's that bye that makes sense to load up on but also need to be careful not to go overboard.
Agree entirely that Jackson is always on the watch list, if he's rucking, he's got #1 forward potential, heck proven #1 forward scoring levels.
Basically he averaged 87 in 2023 and 84 in 2024 with Darcy in the side (Reidy games it's an 84.4 so not a noteworthy difference). He averaged 118 and 106 without Darcy.
He definitely could improve and if Darcy isn't there for the start of the season (always possible) then he's a strong option. I'd say the wait and see is by far the better plan right now though until Darcy is done and even then, it would be a genuine question if they play Reidy or not. Despite him being mediocre as a forward he's still better than their other options as the 3rd tall by a long way and he's not awful, he's just not good either and he will still ruck as the #2 where he can rack up points very quickly. The problem is he's probably a 65 player as a pure forward so he needs a lot of ruck time to get to the levels needed as premium priced player. His bye is nice. Personally I much prefer Bolton if targeting a Docker forward, he's significantly cheaper than his best and they'll do everything to justify trading so much for him.
Obviously with Macrae already locking up one of that bye's spots, that's another factor. Especially given Boyd could still be fieldable by round 12 if he is the #1 ruck, Serong, Brayshaw, Sinclair, NWM, Ryan, Clark, Darcy and a couple of the Saints rookies also look like really decent options and who knows what happens with Marshall, he may well get FWD lose a ton of $$$ and then go back to the ruck and be an absolute must have, it's that bye that makes sense to load up on but also need to be careful not to go overboard.
Agree entirely that Jackson is always on the watch list, if he's rucking, he's got #1 forward potential, heck proven #1 forward scoring levels.
Jackson's problem is his marking. For a guy with a strong basketball background and a solid leap he is a lousy mark. Gets his hands on it regularly but cannot seem to hold them. Excluding clangers, which are always negative, it is his second worst metric in terms of SC points. In 2024 he did not even rank in the top 200 for players scoring SC points from marks and for a forward that is hopeless. If he could improve his marking I think he would be a 100+ ruck/forward.
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Retweet!!! Was infuriating watching him as an owner last year consistently get his hands to it but unable to hold.
Would increase his impact and effectiveness as a forward to no end if he could duke them more often than not, and most likely take his SC scoring game into seriously dangerous territory, even while playing large chunks purely forward.
Would increase his impact and effectiveness as a forward to no end if he could duke them more often than not, and most likely take his SC scoring game into seriously dangerous territory, even while playing large chunks purely forward.
He's also got very ordinary leading patterns and forward craft, both of which contribute to why so many of his mark attempts are very high degree of difficulty in packs. He's a freakish athlete but he basically plays like a chicken with its head cut off and as a forward in the modern AFL that makes life very difficult.
Not great at repeat efforts either on the lead, which is symptom of leading to the wrong spots repeatedly and getting ignored.
The positive is that all of this is stuff he can learn and he's still very young by KP player terms. Most of the top KPF don't break out until the 6th season at the earliest, there's basically Buddy and a couple of other extreme outliers on this. Jackson has spent a lot of time developing as a ruck as well and didn't play forward a lot as a youngster as well as being bigger, so wouldn't be unreasonable to expect more like 8 years from him. Being taller like that can actually be a detriment in marking contests if you don't have the strength as having a higher centre of gravity and being weaker makes you a lot easier to move out of position and also to body spoil. Jeremy Cameron is a great example of this where it took him a solid 6 years to develop the strength and forward leading patterns to start taking a lot of marks consistently. Lobb, Himmelberg and Liam Jones being excellent marks behind the ball after largely struggling in front of it are all similar as well, forwards don't know how to body spoil like defenders and rarely engage in it which makes them able to just read it and mark, instead of having to lead to the right spot and then overcome contact.
He's a great talent though and he definitely could put it together this year, he wasn't that far off it last year and he scores so well in the rucks that if he can become even a slightly above average forward he's a good shout to be a premium. Probably can be had cheaper than his starting price though.
Not great at repeat efforts either on the lead, which is symptom of leading to the wrong spots repeatedly and getting ignored.
The positive is that all of this is stuff he can learn and he's still very young by KP player terms. Most of the top KPF don't break out until the 6th season at the earliest, there's basically Buddy and a couple of other extreme outliers on this. Jackson has spent a lot of time developing as a ruck as well and didn't play forward a lot as a youngster as well as being bigger, so wouldn't be unreasonable to expect more like 8 years from him. Being taller like that can actually be a detriment in marking contests if you don't have the strength as having a higher centre of gravity and being weaker makes you a lot easier to move out of position and also to body spoil. Jeremy Cameron is a great example of this where it took him a solid 6 years to develop the strength and forward leading patterns to start taking a lot of marks consistently. Lobb, Himmelberg and Liam Jones being excellent marks behind the ball after largely struggling in front of it are all similar as well, forwards don't know how to body spoil like defenders and rarely engage in it which makes them able to just read it and mark, instead of having to lead to the right spot and then overcome contact.
He's a great talent though and he definitely could put it together this year, he wasn't that far off it last year and he scores so well in the rucks that if he can become even a slightly above average forward he's a good shout to be a premium. Probably can be had cheaper than his starting price though.
