Analysis Heath Shaw

[Impromptu]

Collingwood Bad Boy, Heath Shaw doesn't appear that popular in SuperCoach 2013, probably because of the fact he is the Collingwood Bad Boy. However, with the inherent risk, will you Heath Shaw a spot in your defence in SuperCoach 2013?

Name - Heath Shaw (COL)
Position - DEF
Price - $515,800
Average - 101.2 (18), 100.9 (14), 90.2(19), 94.7 (18), 91.5 (18)
Draw - NTH, CAR, HAW, RIC, ESS, STK, FRE, GEE, SYD, BRIS, MEL, WBD, BYE

Heath Shaw plays for Collingwood and Shaw on a weekly basis competes against the Collingwood elite midfield who form part of the 'Collingwood Conundrum' for SuperCoach points, yet continues to perform in SuperCoach.

REASONS FOR HEATH SHAW

Last year, even with all these Collingwood premium midfielder taking a large portion of the Supercoach 'Pie' (pun intended), Shaw still finished equal number 1, based on averages with Brendon Goddard.

In addition, over the years Shaw has consistently been in the top 10 averages in the defence. The concern is clearly that Shaw is injury prone and traditionally misses 2-5 games a year, your Beau Waters type player. I think we can exclude the fair portion of games he missed in 2011 where he only played 14 games as this was partly due to his
infamous 8 week suspension due to the Heath Shaw Betting Scandal. Yes, it wasn't a smart move on Shaw's behalf, but we can assume that it won't occur again, yes only assume.

With the Rolling Lock Out and the additional trades given in Supercoach 2013 and while there is always a concern that Shaw misses games, I think the exposure is less with 'Late Outs' and that the 'Games Missed' can be managed.

Shaw is definitely high risk high return player.

Surprisingly, Shaw has been consistently been a good SuperCoach player even with the 'Collingwood Conundrum'.

REASONS AGAINST HEATH SHAW

The number of games that Shaw consistently misses each year is a bit of a concern, but his average his very good.

Against all odds, the fact that Shaw continues to average in the top 10 in the defence means he must be a consideration, especially with Heath Scotland unavailable for the first 2 rounds and value pick, Nathan Bock being in serious doubt for round 1.

I think we can evisage Shaw playing 18 games (missing 4 games) with an average of 100, however will that be an acceptable outcome for you?

Verdict: WATCH(3)

PS - Can someone help me out and work out where Heath Shaw finished in terms of rankings in the Defence for the last 5 years? I know Shaw equalled Goddard last year and I believe in the top 6 in 2011 based on averages.

 

[Rowsus]

From memory, in 2011 he was 3rd on averages, 2010 8th, and 2009 5th.
With TS down it is hard to check these things properly.
He's in the too hard basket for me. I just don't know what to do with players that miss 4 or more games each year.
Go by the old motto - "If in doubt, leave him out!"
(Hasn't managed more than 18 games since 2007!)

 

[Torress]

Mate if I had the data I would post where he finished but I don't.

its unlikely for mine. Its a no brainer to lock in goddard and gibbs, after that I find it very difficult to pay anything 450k and up for a defender as a starter; purely based on previous experience with starting DEF's at premo price. to me it feels like a waste paying top dollar for defender premos as compared to paying top dollar for rucks,fwds and obviously mids.(im making god and gibbs exceptions due to the prospects of them playing predominately in the guts).

I feel that many solid DEF premos drop around and often below 400k at some stage in the year. There are many backs who average in the 90's. IDK, that's premium yea? and rather than pay near 500k for these guys i'd rather bring in say a Enright, Duffield, hurn, suckling, when they bottom out-I don't have data to back this up right now but I remember most of these guys dropping below or around 400k last season. heck last year I traded bob murphy in at around rd 14 for like 378k and he averaged 90 plus on the backend of the season. prob one of very few good tades i made last year!

but hey all players drop from their starting prices!I feel more confident preseason to rely on good enough backmen to drop to around 400k at some stage during the year, making a straight swap from a midpricer or a fairly easy upgrade. from my experience, everytime in the past I've traded in say hurn a few years ago payed around 490k cos he looked the bomb, he bombed out with like a 70 average from there on. hence its god/gibbs and daylight in my backline atm!

perhaps this post makes little sense and I apologise for going off the topic of heater shaw = sorry jay!

for me heater is UNLIKELY, due to that I want to start as light as possible in the backs and bolster other areas. and I really will only pay and look at paying top dollar on each line for players who have history in playing 22 games as starting picks. heater gets the hammy pulls and stuff especially in middle of winter.
and also I do want to start quite a few rd 13 bye mid premos, throw in god and gibbs, (maybe bock) and its pushing it.

 

[johno686]

No for me at the start of the year but maybe later on.
Defense is hard to pick and players seem to be all over the place. Every year its hard to pick the top 6 in this position.
Thats why im going weak at back just like last year.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Good player but a moron to say the least. His history shows that he will more than likely have a brain fade at some stage this year and miss games because of it.

Add to that the fact that he shares the bye round with Goddard and Gibbs and it is a no brainer. If he remains brain fade free and looks the goods this year then I may take the risk of selecting him as an upgrade target after the byes. With Heater it is always a risk though.

 

[Dynamo]

Watch/Unlikley for me.

Had him last year from the start and although he was OK I think there is better value to start.
Quite happy with the 3G's. Goddard, Gibbs and Grimes atm.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Originally had Goddard, Gibbs, Shaw and Duffield/Broughton as my premium backs but have since dropped Shaw and Broughton from my list.
The fact that he does miss a number of games and tends to get injured has been worrying me. I think I will select WATCH and probably try and get him in as an upgrade target depending on how he starts the season and if he gets any injuries or suspensions.

 

[Hairy]

No.....

 

[davo]

too risky all ready full of rd 13 bye players in backs and mids

 

[IDIG]

Will be in the top 6 averaging players you would think and as Jay has said, is your Waters type player that will more than likely miss games but be right up there. Shame really, both are justifiable starters but i think it's too risky.

 

[supergirl]

I have locked and loaded Heater in my line up of 22. He has been a lock for me for many years and every time he played, he played well. It is extremely rare for this man to cop a tag and being the loose man in defence is what he does best. As for the risk of not playing all 22 games I am willing to take it. At least with suspension you know exactly how long the player will be out for.

Much love for Heater!

 

[BC]

No reason to say no, but no for me lol, cheaper alternatives near same output

 

[sc2013]

I don't have 2008 numbers, but here are the others:

2009 - equal 10th
2010 - 17th
2011 - 4th
2012 - equal 1st

 

[Breaker]

Unlikely. Better options available but will be on the watchlist as an upgrade target.

 

[Drew]

He's in my squad at the moment. With the extra trades i think it's worth the risk, i think this year, at least with your starting squad you've gotta have a bit a a "hire and fire" approach. There's no reason to think Shaw won't get a 100 average again and if he's out it'll be trade, trade, trade!

 

[johno686]

For me thinking about it now Shaw v Goddard? With all this essendon stuff going on can Shaw now be better option.

 

[blue dreamer]

For me it's more Shaw versus Gibbs with Shaw in front at the mo

 

[sc2013]

I want to have Gibbs rather than Shaw, but saw this in a recent HSun story about Carlton's intraclub match. The last line of the story and the only mention of Gibbs...

"Bryce Gibbs was solid rather than spectacular."

Not exactly a glowing endorsement is it?

 

[Nk29]

I want to have Gibbs rather than Shaw, but saw this in a recent HSun story about Carlton's intraclub match. The last line of the story and the only mention of Gibbs...

"Bryce Gibbs was solid rather than spectacular."

Not exactly a glowing endorsement is it?

Doesn't mean much. Read in the Collingwood intraclub match report that Swan and Pendlebury were "solid". Doesn't mean they won't average 120+ and likely finish in the top 3 mids next season... Keep in mind that intraclub matches are low intensity and mean more for fringe players than those firmly in the best 22. NAB cup will give a slightly better indication, but nothing replicates a h&a game... While these games are certainly worth keeping in mind (and they are very good for looking at a players role in the team), they should not be the main basis for selection.

 

[martyg]

It's hard to bring Heater into any team.. I have started with him for the last couple of years and whilst he does pull out some blinders... the average games really hurt.

Mids are sooooo easy to pick this years, defenders, not so much!