Questions for Rowsus

[Grant]

Rowsus has an incredible SC knowledge so I thought I'd start a thread to ask him some questions that don't really have a place in any other thread and that few other people would be capable of answering. I'm not meaning to create more work for you Rowsus as I think most of the answers will be stored in your encyclopedic brain.

First question: Blicavs last week increased his price by $49k, his biggest increase in 9 consecutive rises, even beating his initial increase. Has a cashcow ever done something similar? The only possibility I can think of is if somebody is continually the sub early in their career but Blicavs hasn't been sub once making his rise quite extraordinary.

 

[Mr_Arrogance]

I know this isnt the question you asked but made me think about Brandon Ellis this season. Started at 300k, bottomed out at 220k then had first price rise of 17k. (I then jumped on board for him to be a cash cow when gibbs got injured)

Then went on to have price rises of 46k, 45k, 55k then a massive 56k!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus has an incredible SC knowledge so I thought I'd start a thread to ask him some questions that don't really have a place in any other thread and that few other people would be capable of answering. I'm not meaning to create more work for you Rowsus as I think most of the answers will be stored in your encyclopedic brain.

First question: Blicavs last week increased his price by $49k, his biggest increase in 9 consecutive rises, even beating his initial increase. Has a cashcow ever done something similar? The only possibility I can think of is if somebody is continually the sub early in their career but Blicavs hasn't been sub once making his rise quite extraordinary.

Happy to have people ask me questions Grant, so it's not really creating work!
If a question doesn't hold much relevance, or requires too much work, I may respectfully decline, but outside of that, I am happy for people to ask what they want.

I don't have ALL the figures to hand, but I think I can say without fear of contradiction, it has not even gone close to happening before!
To be not subbed, AND have 9 price rises in a row, and to have your biggest price rise in the last game, takes a nearly impossible set of circumstances to happen. This is made even harder to replicate, when you look at the fact he had his 3rd biggest price rise in his 2nd last game! you would think the only 2 circumstances that throw a scenario like this, is firstly if the player in question has a massive role change in the team, and is placed into a much more productive role. Secondly, and this is obviously Blicavs, a player whose improvement comes in leaps and bounds, especially 10 or 11 games into his debut season. In most circumstances, this sort of improvemement isn't available to Rookies with a wealth of junior experience and development. Blicavs fits an extraordinary set of circumstances, where he is an elite athlete, has more upside for improvement than 99% of Rookies, and is playing in a team that has big injury/depth problems in his position. Such circumstances may arise again, but I think we'll be waiting a fair old time before they do! As a side note, given the success of Blicavs, we know in the not too distant future, other clubs will be copying this approach, and recruiting tall elite athletes, and trying to turn them into footballers. By this, I mean "athlete" athletes, not basketball athletes, or other ball sport athletes. Playing copycat is what AFL clubs do best! It also reminds me of something Ron Barassi said in the early 80's: "Give me a guy that can run, a good athlete, and I will turn him into a footballer!". He is always a visionary, and ahead of the game, is Ron.

Good question/historical observation, Grant!

 

[brad182]

Hey dude,
Need to trade Hurn, Birchall, Vlastuin
Am leaning towards Hurn & Vlastuin hopefully Birch will be good for SC finals
Question is: Who to bring in?
I like Gibbs, Hanley Ibbotsen
Ibbotsen has a good run for SC finals and Gibbs tends to play well against his finals teams and is in form.
Hanleys at a great price thoe but not in form!!
ANy help on which 2 defenders you reckon i bring in? its tough

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Hey Rowsus,
Just wondering if you have the time to figure out what Pearce Hanley's price would be next week (before round 15) if he scores a 40,80 & 120 this week. Weighting up the possible price drop and getting him cheaper next week vs. the risk in jumping on Clisby a week early.

Hanley currently is priced at $435,100 and has a BE of 131

 

[Lenny5]

Hey dude,
Need to trade Hurn, Birchall, Vlastuin
Am leaning towards Hurn & Vlastuin hopefully Birch will be good for SC finals
Question is: Who to bring in?
I like Gibbs, Hanley Ibbotsen
Ibbotsen has a good run for SC finals and Gibbs tends to play well against his finals teams and is in form.
Hanleys at a great price thoe but not in form!!
ANy help on which 2 defenders you reckon i bring in? its tough

Keep Vlas. Not worth holding Birch for so long in my opinion. Like u said, it is tough to decide which defenders to bring in. I reckon get Gibbs and Ibbotson then later on u may look to go Vlas to Hanley if he has come good.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Just wondering if you have the time to figure out what Pearce Hanley's price would be next week (before round 15) if he scores a 40,80 & 120 this week. Weighting up the possible price drop and getting him cheaper next week vs. the risk in jumping on Clisby a week early.

Hanley currently is priced at $435,100 and has a BE of 131

The formula for calculating price change is: (score - B/E) x $440.
Given a players price, and his B/E, have fractions that aren't displayed, any price calculation need to be done with a rider of +/-$300 on the end.
Hanley 40 - price next week $395,100 +/-$300
Hanley 60 - price next week $403,900 +/-$300
Hanley 80 - price next week $412,700 +/-$300
Hanley 100 - price next week $421,500 +/-$300
Hanley 120 - price next week $430,300 +/-$300
As to jumping on Clisby a week early, that is something I would never advise. It worked well for the Coaches that jumped on Mitchell and Nicholls a week early, but in general there are more tears than cheers when you do it.

Hey dude,
Need to trade Hurn, Birchall, Vlastuin
Am leaning towards Hurn & Vlastuin hopefully Birch will be good for SC finals
Question is: Who to bring in?
I like Gibbs, Hanley Ibbotsen
Ibbotsen has a good run for SC finals and Gibbs tends to play well against his finals teams and is in form.
Hanleys at a great price thoe but not in form!!
ANy help on which 2 defenders you reckon i bring in? its tough

As Goodies points out above, Hanley is due another price drop this week. If you decide on him, wait until next week.
My own opinion, and there are better Coaches than me here you could ask this one, is that Gibbs is close to a must have. Between Ibbo and Hanley there are strong arguments for both. The draw is a big factor in splitting between 2 players. Both Freo and Brisbane have favourable draws, but Brisbanes is better. That combined with Hanleys bigger upside and FTB status makes me say Hanley over Ibbotson.
As to who to dump out of Hurn, Birchall and Vlastuin, even though Vlastuin is looking tired and injured, his short term outlook appears much better than the other 2. I'd keep him, and ditch the other 2 for now, unless the prognosis drastically changes for one of the other 2, which we know can happen!
Good luck

 

[brad182]

The formula for calculating price change is: (score - B/E) x $440.
Given a players price, and his B/E, have fractions that aren't displayed, any price calculation need to be done with a rider of +/-$300 on the end.
Hanley 40 - price next week $395,100 +/-$300
Hanley 60 - price next week $403,900 +/-$300
Hanley 80 - price next week $412,700 +/-$300
Hanley 100 - price next week $421,500 +/-$300
Hanley 120 - price next week $430,300 +/-$300



As Goodies points out above, Hanley is due another price drop this week. If you decide on him, wait until next week.
My own opinion, and there are better Coaches than me here you could ask this one, is that Gibbs is close to a must have. Between Ibbo and Hanley there are strong arguments for both. As Lenny5 points out, draw is a big factor in splitting between 2 players. Both Freo and Brisbane have favourable draws, but Brisbanes is better. That combined with Hanleys bigger upside and FTB status makes me say Hanley over Ibbotson.
Good luck

Thinking of going left field and bringing in big Trent Macca from gold coast, pretty good draw i reckon! Suns are playing better footy looks the goods for a POD

 

[Impromptu]

Thanks Rowsus for your time. Cheerios.

 

[Rowsus]

Thinking of going left field and bringing in big Trent Macca from gold coast, pretty good draw i reckon! Suns are playing better footy looks the goods for a POD

Fantastic looking option, and the player I would have brought in for Birchall myself. In the end, it was going to be 2 trades to get him as I was just short of the $42,200 needed to do it in one trade. He's not a player worth 2 trades to get, but if you can get him in one trade, without compromising any 2nd planned trade this week, I say do it!

 

[whateverittakes]

Haven't got Heath Shaw so I'm thinking of bringing him in for Birchall. However I need to generate some cash so I was planning to trade Goodes/Vlastuin via Staker (who I will move into defence) for Joe Daniher. DO you think that's too risky Rowsus as I don;t really have any other options for cash generation and only 6 trades left...? It means playing with Ben Kennedy as my F6.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

The formula for calculating price change is: (score - B/E) x $440.
Given a players price, and his B/E, have fractions that aren't displayed, any price calculation need to be done with a rider of +/-$300 on the end.
Hanley 40 - price next week $395,100 +/-$300
Hanley 60 - price next week $403,900 +/-$300
Hanley 80 - price next week $412,700 +/-$300
Hanley 100 - price next week $421,500 +/-$300
Hanley 120 - price next week $430,300 +/-$300
As to jumping on Clisby a week early, that is something I would never advise. It worked well for the Coaches that jumped on Mitchell and Nicholls a week early, but in general there are more tears than cheers when you do it.

As Goodies points out above, Hanley is due another price drop this week. If you decide on him, wait until next week.
My own opinion, and there are better Coaches than me here you could ask this one, is that Gibbs is close to a must have. Between Ibbo and Hanley there are strong arguments for both. The draw is a big factor in splitting between 2 players. Both Freo and Brisbane have favourable draws, but Brisbanes is better. That combined with Hanleys bigger upside and FTB status makes me say Hanley over Ibbotson.
As to who to dump out of Hurn, Birchall and Vlastuin, even though Vlastuin is looking tired and injured, his short term outlook appears much better than the other 2. I'd keep him, and ditch the other 2 for now, unless the prognosis drastically changes for one of the other 2, which we know can happen!
Good luck

Cheers Rowsus, with Vlastuin getting named (for now) and Hanley looking like he'll drop a bit more I will wait a week.
Maric being out has thrown me, will have a donut there which isn't great.
Definitely doing Birchall ---> Gibbs, unsure on another trade though.

 

[Rowsus]

Haven't got Heath Shaw so I'm thinking of bringing him in for Birchall. However I need to generate some cash so I was planning to trade Goodes/Vlastuin via Staker (who I will move into defence) for Joe Daniher. DO you think that's too risky Rowsus as I don;t really have any other options for cash generation and only 6 trades left...? It means playing with Ben Kennedy as my F6.

From memory you are fairly highly placed in the Rankings, but not right up there in the top 50. That probably means some risk taking to make ground. The question is, do Kennedy B and Daniher have enough JS to cover F6? I think the answer is no. If you are relying on one, or both of those 2 be picked every week, it is my guess you might get a Fwd donut or 2 sometime in the future. While Shaw is attractive, given his propensity to miss games affecting his P.I.T. score on a regular basis, the risk against the reward seems too high. It may not be, and as I said, you need to take a risk or two, it's just I'd be taking that risk somewhere else.
good luck

edit - just seen in another thread you only need Kennedy/Daniher for 2 weeks. That greatly reduces any risk involved, and leaves the biggest concern Shaw's ability to get on the park. I think it tips the scales in favour of doing it.

 

[Zim^zuM]

I was going to trade priddis for pendles. Swap it to mundy?

 

[Rowsus]

I was going to trade priddis for pendles. Swap it to mundy?

Never thought Mundy was a genuine Prem.
My assessment on those three is:
Pendles ..... daylight ...... daylight.... Priddis Mundy

 

[Bobbie]

From memory you are fairly highly placed in the Rankings, but not right up there in the top 50. That probably means some risk taking to make ground. The question is, do Kennedy B and Daniher have enough JS to cover F6? I think the answer is no. If you are relying on one, or both of those 2 be picked every week, it is my guess you might get a Fwd donut or 2 sometime in the future. While Shaw is attractive, given his propensity to miss games affecting his P.I.T. score on a regular basis, the risk against the reward seems too high. It may not be, and as I said, you need to take a risk or two, it's just I'd be taking that risk somewhere else.
good luck

In the same boat with Birchall but have $260k in the bank. Was planning on bringing Shaw in but your reminder re him missing games has me worried. Now considering the likes of Houli or Heppell (have Gibbs, Goddard and Hanley). Any advice would be much appreciated Rowsus.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Never thought Mundy was a genuine Prem.
My assessment on those three is:
Pendles ..... daylight ...... daylight.... Priddis Mundy

who is daylight? Dpp?

 

[Rowsus]

In the same boat with Birchall but have $260k in the bank. Was planning on bringing Shaw in but your reminder re him missing games has me worried. Now considering the likes of Houli or Heppell (have Gibbs, Goddard and Hanley). Any advice would be much appreciated Rowsus.

Sometimes it is just as important to shutdown a POD against you, as it is to create a POD. If you feel you have enough POD's against the teams above you, go Shaw, and shut down their POD. If you think you need a POD, I'd go Houli or McKenzie. The thing with risks like this, is it is slightly more likely to push you backwards than forwards. It's a case of summing up where you're at, where you'd like to be, and what you're willing to do to get there. You may have enough POD's, as I'm not sure how many of the top 100 have all 4 of Deledio, Cotchin, Watson, Priddis. The maths would suggest it is only 4 or 5 of the top 100 that have those 4 in combination.
Good luck

 

[Bobbie]

Sometimes it is just as important to shutdown a POD against you, as it is to create a POD. If you feel you have enough POD's against the teams above you, go Shaw, and shut down their POD. If you think you need a POD, I'd go Houli or McKenzie. The thing with risks like this, is it is slightly more likely to push you backwards than forwards. It's a case of summing up where you're at, where you'd like to be, and what you're willing to do to get there. You may have enough POD's, as I'm not sure how many of the top 100 have all 4 of Deledio, Cotchin, Watson, Priddis. The maths would suggest it is only 4 or 5 of the top 100 that have those 4 in combination.
Good luck

Thanks for taking the time to reply. I think I'll go with Shaw.

So is the Deledio, Cotchin, Watson, Priddis combo a negative POD?!!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for taking the time to reply. I think I'll go with Shaw.

So is the Deledio, Cotchin, Watson, Priddis combo a negative POD?!!

Only time can answer that!