Analysis Reluctant SuperCoach Selections

[Impromptu]

You may have read my article on Premium Point of Difference on the selection of unique SuperCoach Premiums. In short, the articles explains the 'Pros' and 'Cons' of selecting PODs in your team to gain a 'comparative advantage'.

However, there is always a player which you are not sure of. Possibly a player, who you don't think has value or you think perhaps is a bit overpriced. The problem is now you are very uncertain and that player for me is Patrick Dangerfield.

No, this article is not about my pain of not selecting the midfielder/forward Patrick Dangerfield in 2012. It's about what to do if you are unsure on whether to select a player.

Most time you decide to select a player to gain an Advantage, however sometimes you need to select a player to Negate the potential of a Disadvantage.

Thus, Selecting a POD to Gain an Advantage = Selecting a Popular Player to Negate a Disadvantage

I briefly used this strategy in SuperCoach 2011, which I quote from my previous article Trading To Win (1) :

Point of Difference (PODs)

As I was the overall leader or at least in the leading group in the earlier rounds, other teams had to upgrade their teams to premiums who were not in my team or who were unlikely to be traded into my team. The reason is, if I traded in say Scotland, in order for a team to close the gap on my lead, they were required to trade in another player to create a point of difference known as a POD. This also applied to captain selection.

In order to bridge the gap, there would simply be no point in other teams trading in Scotland, as Scotland’s score would cancel out. Naturally, other teams may trade in Scotland for the sole purpose of cancelling out and hoping to create a POD elsewhere. However, trading in Scotland that in itself would not create a POD.

The key here is that I was the driver, the person deciding on what premiums other teams could trade in. My perception right or wrongly was that Scotland would be a the top 7 backmen. I knew by trading Scotland in (and later Fisher) that any teams who wanted to create a POD on my team could not choose Scotland (nor Fisher) as the scores would simply cancel out. Therefore, with my lead, I had the luxury of choosing the premiums, I wanted in my team, which on the flipside meant other teams could not choose these premiums in their teams. While there was the possibility that Scotland’s alternatives say H.Shaw, Birchall, Suckling etc would score more than Scotland (or Fisher), I had the choice to decide on who I wanted to be in my side.

I put a ’reservation on the premiums’ that I wanted, knowing other teams could not choose my reserved premiums

Therefore, sometimes you need to select a player not to gain an advantage, but not negate the disadvantage. I know the circumstances are different as I'm not currently leading the entire SuperCoach competition, but the same principles apply.

I've read a few people considering not selecting:

• Buddy Franklin
• Gary Ablett
• Dean Cox
• Brendon Goddard
• Bryce Gibbs

I'm not saying to select or not selecting the above players, but just be wary sometimes you need to do things strategically to negate rather than to gain an advantage.

I have not selected Buddy Franklin and I am very comfortable with that decision. However, unfortunately, I think I have to reluctantly select Patrick Dangerfield, more of a negating move!

For me, if you think you can't win somewhere, negate it and fight the battle elsewhere.

 

[Jordyfoz]

Very interesting Article, cheers Jay.
Im also not 100% on Danger, he's in my squad now but we have to decide by Friday night or he will be locked away so hopefully I will have made the right decision by then. I'll probably pick him... I also didnt have him last year though...are we chasing last years points? I hope not!

I think Cox is my main selection to 'Negate a Disadvantage' plenty of people have him, he's expensive and getting older, but I know what he's capable of. Selecting him and not having things go as well as I'd hoped is not as bad as not selecting him and having him dominate, I think.

Good stuff, Jay, Cheers.

 

[Impromptu]

Very interesting Article, cheers Jay.
Im also not 100% on Danger, he's in my squad now but we have to decide by Friday night or he will be locked away so hopefully I will have made the right decision by then. I'll probably pick him... I also didnt have him last year though...are we chasing last years points? I hope not!

I think Cox is my main selection to 'Negate a Disadvantage' plenty of people have him, he's expensive and getting older, but I know what he's capable of. Selecting him and not having things go as well as I'd hoped is not as bad as not selecting him and having him dominate, I think.

Good stuff, Jay, Cheers.

Thanks mate, ignore the name Dangerfield.

Dangerfield is just an example, and more for me as I'm a bit lost with him.

I know I'll get more annoyed at myself if Dangerfield does well and I don't have him than having Dangerfield and him not doing well. I actually think Dangerfield will do well, just hate his price after one good year.

I personally don't think we are Chasing Last Year's Points (thanks Rowsus) as Dangerfield is now a midfielder and priced at the elite level. It's more of whether you think Dangerfield will be a Ablett, Swan and Pendles.

 

[The_Rogues]

I presently have the other 5 you have mentioned Jay and I am going to toss a coin on Danger before lockout. Like Buddy there is possibly better value out there but if he goes all son of god early in the season you would hate to have missed the boat.

 

[Philzsay]

This is pretty much why after all the pros and cons I have decided to take Ablett. Simply on the fear that Captain Ablett may bang out a couple of monsters early on!

 

[Jordyfoz]

I personally don't think we are Chasing Last Year's Points (thanks Rowsus) as Dangerfield is now a midfielder and priced at the elite level. It's more of whether you think Dangerfield will be a Ablett, Swan and Pendles.

Yeah - you're right, I think he's worth the slight risk...
Cheers!

 

[Epidemick]

Wow the excitement is building! Jay the popular players I have ATM are Goddard, not 100% sure of him when the real season fires up, new structure, tag. Ablett, fully priced and I would prefer jpk or pendles because of upside. With the extra trades this year maybe we can grow some cohunas and start with the side we would like to, rather than the side we feel we have to. Here's hoping

 

[Rowsus]

Goddard and Ablett are my reluctant selections.
I'd really rather structure my team without them, but I can't balance the risk of leaving them out (to start with, and trade in later), against the rewards to be made. The combination will be in about 25% of overall teams, and probably 65-70% of all "serious" teams. If I start without them, knowing I intend to bring them in later, I probably give up too big a start to the teams that have them both. Chances are the lead I give up if they fire, is more than the lead I create if they don't. Given the chances of both bombing is remote, it says it is a risk I'm not prepared to take.

 

[johno686]

Goddard is in 55.7 teams thats a guy you have to have to not be smashed by not having him.

 

[PC]

Goddard is in 55.7 teams thats a guy you have to have to not be smashed by not having him.

In all seriousness (and yes, I am a SC newbie), you are saying this because he is either going to hit massive scores semi-regularly (ie 140+?) and moreso than others, or because his average is going to be better than anyone else? (ie 120+)?

He is quite easily the most expensive of the backliners that have been selected by most teams ($30k or so more than Gibbs - I note Shaw is in 14.3% of teams and has a similar price to Goddard), so you are giving up the option of at least an extra $45k (Duffman) to have him in. That $45k can be spent or spread elsewhere and you may have a good POD by not having in your side. He was in my side for a long long time, but has been dropped and my backline readjusted, honestly I think I now have a better team because of that change. Also, I am very nervous about the Essendon dramas continuing on into the season.

Not sure if I have made myself really clear - I guess my question is, how many points per week (even pure backline points) will you give up to the other guy by not having Goddard and would the extra $ saved make up for them??

Note, I have no idea if those two numbers (140 and 120) illustrate my point correctly!

 

[Stroppy]

Goddard and Ablett are my reluctant selections.
I'd really rather structure my team without them, but I can't balance the risk of leaving them out (to start with, and trade in later), against the rewards to be made. The combination will be in about 25% of overall teams, and probably 65-70% of all "serious" teams. If I start without them, knowing I intend to bring them in later, I probably give up too big a start to the teams that have them both. Chances are the lead I give up if they fire, is more than the lead I create if they don't. Given the chances of both bombing is remote, it says it is a risk I'm not prepared to take.

I am going to stick with my initial reaction when the player prices came out. No Ablett for me initially. As a Suns fan this is hard (which hopefully means it is right). Extra cash towards problematic Rucks.

I am also leaning strongly towards my initial reaction when the Essendon news came out. If I have a reasonable alternative to a Bomber player I will take the alternative. Being tarred and feathered by the public brush gets old quickly, especially in the modern media world.

Goddard gets a bump since he was not there at the time so still in the frame. Options are (AEBE) Goddard+Watts/Heppell versus Birchall+Duffield. Not a bad alternative.

PS Along with most people I will probably change my mind several times in the next few days.

PPS All else being equal (AEBE). I would have used ceterus paribus but that would have been a clown move.

 

[johno686]

Goddard will be the leading point for and ave, so if you dont have him and 55% people do your just missing out on about 20+ points a round.

 

[Jimace The Grimace]

Now I am not sure about Ablett! Staph it!

 

[Prochard]

Goddard will be the leading point for and ave, so if you dont have him and 55% people do your just missing out on about 20+ points a round.

Bold, but agree to some extent.

 

[hammo42]

Very thought-provoking and timely article Jay.

Ablett was out for of my side for a brief time and I enjoyed splashing the cash. Then I got the sweats and shakes. He's now back in. Phew!

I'm reconsidering Danger - his pre-season form is too good to ignore.

Zorko is another for me. Perhaps not quite as popular in initial teams, and on principle I should leave him out after just one good season. But the early Brisbane draw and his excellent pre-season form means you could be waiting a while for his price to drop, if it is to drop at all. I want to look for value elsewhere but he, like Danger, could really help get you off to a great start and carry it through.

 

[AngryAnt]

Whoever has been in the R2 spot for me has been a reluctant selection. Have had Giles, Kreuzer, Z.Smith, Bellchambers and Mumford all rotate through there and not really pleased with any of them.

 

[AngryAnt]

It's down to Steve Johnson and Zorko for me for one of my forward premium spots and even with the round 1 suspension am going Johnson. Whilst Zorko has had a really good pre-season, I can't see him being given as little attention as what Carlton gave him the other night. Also have Rockliff, one or the other for me and Rockliff has the runs on the board.

 

[Prochard]

It's down to Steve Johnson and Zorko for me for one of my forward premium spots and even with the round 1 suspension am going Johnson. Whilst Zorko has had a really good pre-season, I can't see him being given as little attention as what Carlton gave him the other night. Also have Rockliff, one or the other for me and Rockliff has the runs on the board.

This is interesting, cause i was gonna select zorko over Johnson even if he DOES play round 1.

 

[johno686]

It's down to Steve Johnson and Zorko for me for one of my forward premium spots and even with the round 1 suspension am going Johnson. Whilst Zorko has had a really good pre-season, I can't see him being given as little attention as what Carlton gave him the other night. Also have Rockliff, one or the other for me and Rockliff has the runs on the board.

Johnson by a mile for me

 

[Nk29]

Johnson by a mile for me

Me too