Every now and then, I get asked a question in Questions For Rowsus that warrants a whole thread, rather than just an expanded answer. Hondo asked me the above question, and in his own subtle way, he is trying to point out how hard it is to be successful with the cheaper priced non-Rookie players. Hondo has been making this point in various threads here over the last month or two, and with many considering a Mid Priced strategy in the Defs, I thought I'd quantify his thoughts.
The tables below are color coded, for ease of reading.
Top 6 scorers appear in red
Top 8 scorers appear in orange
Top 10 scorers appear in blue
Top 12 scorers appear in purple
Top 15 scorers appear in Brown
Also keep in mind, that these tables are for 2013 and 2014. That means there will be 12 top 6 scorers, 16 top 8 scorers etc.
I will be looking at the top scorers for average, aggregate and PIT60. For those new to the site, PIT60 basically means, when a player misses a game, we assume you play a Rookie in his place, and that Rookie scores 60. For example, a player that plays 18 games at an average of 80, has an aggregate of 1440, but a PIT60 score of 1680, as he gets 240 added to his total for the missed games.
This first table shows the level achieved by the top scorers in each of the 3 ways of measuring the best players.
Players priced at $275K to $350K
From 79 players selected to play in Round 1 in this price range, in the last 2 seasons, only 1 can be considered a successful pick!
Only one player had a top 10 aggregate, top 8 average, and top 10 PIT60. 79 players is a decent sample size to say, you are really up against it, if you are trying to find players in this price range as successful picks. Yes, you can probably cut that 79 down to half that number, by eliminating KPP Defs, and players with just generally bad SC records over a number of years, but it still shows how good your eye has to be to find a winner here!
Players priced at $350K to $400K
You might have expected a significant improvement, by going up $50k, but you'd be wrong. 61 players have been selected to play in Round 1, in this price range, in the last 2 seasons. 1 player made the top 6 across the 3 measures, and one more player made top 8 in the aggregate. Depending on which measure you like to use, that's 2 players out of 140 in the price range $275k to $400k, that can be looked upon as good picks, across the last 2 seasons. Good grief, it is hard to find value!
Players priced at $400K to $450K
Now we're getting into a range, where if you are good eliminating the deadwood, the players with a spike year, or a well established ESP (Expected Scoring Pattern), you might be a chance to find some value. Of the 40 players who started in Round 1, 7 of them can be considered a good pick, depending on your measurememnt of choice. I prefer the PIT60, as it gives a realistic reflection on your total season. 7 of the 40 recorded PIT60 scores you could live with, even if you weren't totally thrilled with 3 or 4 of them.
Players priced at $450K to $500K
This is the area where a lot of good judges, and good SC Coaches try to find their starting Defs. 28 of the 32 players in this price range have been selected to play Round 1 in the last 2 seasons, and depending on your own opinion, 7 to 9 of them were good picks. Knowing who not to pick is sometimes just as good as having a fair to OK idea of who you probably should pick. with experience, practice, and common sense, you can once again probably dismiss nearly half of these 28 players as being too set in their ESP to gain value, coming off a spike year, or generally just not up to it over a number of seasons. 9 successes out of 14 potential picks isn't a bad chance of success.
Players priced at $500K or higher
The players in this price range can be harder to dismiss, or decide why you shouldn't pick them to start with. Someone suggested a pretty simple method that can help. Look at a players previous 3 or 4 seasons, then remove their best season, and look again. If you don't get excited by the figures that are left, you probably shouldn't pick that player. A Walker from Carlton was a perfect example of this last season. Only 18 Defs in this highest price range have started in Round 1 in the last 2 seasons, and they have about a 50-60% strike rate of being good picks. If you are able to eliminate the A Walker types, you might get this up to 80%. The problem with players in this price range is, they usually have little or no upside, and can be picked up cheaper as the season goes on. Remember, a player that scores at his last seasons average, in each of the first 3 rounds, will drop around 7% in price after Round 3. If he fails to meet last years average, he will drop even more.
Summary
In no way do I think it is impossible to find good non-rookie Defs for under $400k. The one thing I keep saying is have realistic expectations. Don't pick a $320k Def, and expect he'll turn into a 95/game player. History says it just won't happen. If you pick one, and he goes bang, and averages 100 in the first 4 weeks, my best advice is, unless you can really pinpoint where and how this dramatic improvement has come from, and those reasons will still prevail going into the season, then sell/swap/trade that gold nugget, the first time he gets a tricky B/E! Don't think he will still look like gold in 3 weeks!
By all means have a Mid Priced strategy in your Def line, if you think that is your best option. There is nothing wrong in hoping one of your say 3 Mid Priced Defs might become a Keeper, even if it is D7, just don't plan on any of them achieving that.
The tables below are color coded, for ease of reading.
Top 6 scorers appear in red
Top 8 scorers appear in orange
Top 10 scorers appear in blue
Top 12 scorers appear in purple
Top 15 scorers appear in Brown
Also keep in mind, that these tables are for 2013 and 2014. That means there will be 12 top 6 scorers, 16 top 8 scorers etc.
I will be looking at the top scorers for average, aggregate and PIT60. For those new to the site, PIT60 basically means, when a player misses a game, we assume you play a Rookie in his place, and that Rookie scores 60. For example, a player that plays 18 games at an average of 80, has an aggregate of 1440, but a PIT60 score of 1680, as he gets 240 added to his total for the missed games.
This first table shows the level achieved by the top scorers in each of the 3 ways of measuring the best players.
Players priced at $275K to $350K
From 79 players selected to play in Round 1 in this price range, in the last 2 seasons, only 1 can be considered a successful pick!
Only one player had a top 10 aggregate, top 8 average, and top 10 PIT60. 79 players is a decent sample size to say, you are really up against it, if you are trying to find players in this price range as successful picks. Yes, you can probably cut that 79 down to half that number, by eliminating KPP Defs, and players with just generally bad SC records over a number of years, but it still shows how good your eye has to be to find a winner here!
Players priced at $350K to $400K
You might have expected a significant improvement, by going up $50k, but you'd be wrong. 61 players have been selected to play in Round 1, in this price range, in the last 2 seasons. 1 player made the top 6 across the 3 measures, and one more player made top 8 in the aggregate. Depending on which measure you like to use, that's 2 players out of 140 in the price range $275k to $400k, that can be looked upon as good picks, across the last 2 seasons. Good grief, it is hard to find value!
Players priced at $400K to $450K
Now we're getting into a range, where if you are good eliminating the deadwood, the players with a spike year, or a well established ESP (Expected Scoring Pattern), you might be a chance to find some value. Of the 40 players who started in Round 1, 7 of them can be considered a good pick, depending on your measurememnt of choice. I prefer the PIT60, as it gives a realistic reflection on your total season. 7 of the 40 recorded PIT60 scores you could live with, even if you weren't totally thrilled with 3 or 4 of them.
Players priced at $450K to $500K
This is the area where a lot of good judges, and good SC Coaches try to find their starting Defs. 28 of the 32 players in this price range have been selected to play Round 1 in the last 2 seasons, and depending on your own opinion, 7 to 9 of them were good picks. Knowing who not to pick is sometimes just as good as having a fair to OK idea of who you probably should pick. with experience, practice, and common sense, you can once again probably dismiss nearly half of these 28 players as being too set in their ESP to gain value, coming off a spike year, or generally just not up to it over a number of seasons. 9 successes out of 14 potential picks isn't a bad chance of success.
Players priced at $500K or higher
The players in this price range can be harder to dismiss, or decide why you shouldn't pick them to start with. Someone suggested a pretty simple method that can help. Look at a players previous 3 or 4 seasons, then remove their best season, and look again. If you don't get excited by the figures that are left, you probably shouldn't pick that player. A Walker from Carlton was a perfect example of this last season. Only 18 Defs in this highest price range have started in Round 1 in the last 2 seasons, and they have about a 50-60% strike rate of being good picks. If you are able to eliminate the A Walker types, you might get this up to 80%. The problem with players in this price range is, they usually have little or no upside, and can be picked up cheaper as the season goes on. Remember, a player that scores at his last seasons average, in each of the first 3 rounds, will drop around 7% in price after Round 3. If he fails to meet last years average, he will drop even more.
Summary
In no way do I think it is impossible to find good non-rookie Defs for under $400k. The one thing I keep saying is have realistic expectations. Don't pick a $320k Def, and expect he'll turn into a 95/game player. History says it just won't happen. If you pick one, and he goes bang, and averages 100 in the first 4 weeks, my best advice is, unless you can really pinpoint where and how this dramatic improvement has come from, and those reasons will still prevail going into the season, then sell/swap/trade that gold nugget, the first time he gets a tricky B/E! Don't think he will still look like gold in 3 weeks!
By all means have a Mid Priced strategy in your Def line, if you think that is your best option. There is nothing wrong in hoping one of your say 3 Mid Priced Defs might become a Keeper, even if it is D7, just don't plan on any of them achieving that.
