Your Perfect Team (Rd16)

[tracygrims]

The question is who would you have as your starting 22 if you had unlimited money and trades this week. Basically who will be the top scoring players for the final rounds..
The teams will probably look pretty similar, but there might be some interesting differences in the last few positions.



B: Goddard, Shaw, Gibbs, Sdthompson, Hanley, Htaylor
M: Ablett, Pendlebury, Griffen, Dangerfield, Swan, Barlow, Kjack, Jselwood
R: Goldstein, Minson
F: SJ, Cox, Bartel, Rioli, Roughead, Walker


Number of PODs from actual team: 9
PODs from real team (important in bold): Shaw, Griffen, Swan, Minson, Rioli, Kjack, Roughead, Sdthompson, Htaylor

 

[30BucketsofRo]

B: Goddard, Shaw, Gibbs, Ibbotson, Hanley, McKenzie
M: Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan, Griffen, Barlow, K.Jack, O'Keefe, Dangerfield
R: Goldstein, Minson
F: SJ, Cox, Bartel, A.Walker, Nic Nat, Pavlich

Number of PODs from real team: 8
PODs from real team: Hanley, McKenzie, Jack, O'Keefe, Dangerfield, Goldstein, Minson, Pavlich

 

[Demolished]

B; : Goddard, Shaw, Gibbs, Hanley, Ibbotson, Thompson
M: Ablett, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Swan, Jack, Barlow, Griffen, Kennedy
R: Goldstein, Minson
F: Cox, Bartel, Walker, Johnson, Roughead, Martin

Number of PODS from actual team: 6
Ibbotson, Thompson, Danger, Goldstein, Minson, Walker

 

[tracygrims]

This is the best team based solely on highest averages so far and taking into account the injuries to current players (Watson) and recalculating averages only without sub affected games (Rioli, Ellis).

B (617): Goddard (106), Ellis (106), Shaw (104), Gibbs (102), Ibbotson (100), SDthompson (99)
M (961): Ablett (137), Pendlebury (129), Griffen (125), Dangerfield (117), Swan (117), Barlow (114), Kjack (113), Kcornes (110)
R (227): Goldstein (114), Minson (113)
F (659): Johnson (116), Bartel (110), Rioli (110), Cox (109), Walker (108), Nriewoldt (106),
C (136): Ablett (137)
Total: 2602


My theory is any POD you have in your team, must look like averaging at least as much as the players in this averaged based benchmark team for that POD to be a positive for your team. This applies only in the second half of the season where points scored is an absolute priority over cash generation. It follows that any POD you have from the benchmark team is likely a negative POD or a deficiency in your team. Of course its unlikely that anyone actually has this perfect team, but the person who scores the most from here will probably have something that is very close to this (as well as a decent bench)..

Now the usefulness of PODs remains, however I believe it is not as great as some people claim:

• PODs can be used later in the season as a reason to not have player XYZ if they have a higher percieved chance to be injured, rested or suspended. This was infact my reasoning for not trading Watson into my team (and any other Essendon players) although it fortuitously came true for another unexpected reason.
• Having a player because they have a low % ownership is not beneficial unless they a) have a hot streak and score more than the players in the benchmark team or b) the player you would have had gets injured etc. as in the above point..
• PODs are most useful early in the season when teams are looking nothing like the benchmark due to cash issues. The best PODs early in the season are all about cash generation. When you can either pick a player that increases in value who is in the premium bracket (eg. Walker or Barlow from the beginning) or find a rookie who performs unexpectedly well (Terlich, J.Thomas, Mjones, Rampe - underhyped but some of the best rookies!). This usually means you can get as closer to the benchmark quicker..

Does my philosophy make sense? I would love some further discussion on PODs and how to get closer to the perfect team..