5% seems harsh, I don't think Bowes/Holmes are any threat to him really.
I do expect Duncan to come in for him but his injury history is pretty poor.
I did resist grabbing him in SC this week, but taken the gamble in some other formats. Can't really rely on him for R14/R15 rounds, but it would be a bonus. If he doesn't get games again this season, probably a poor trade-in, but otherwise I can see the appeal as a downgrade. There's essentially no other defender downgrade targets and he's base price so maximising the $$ from whoever is being sold.