Strategy 2023: Round 15 Trades
- Thread starter Tamuhawk
- Start date
Hi all, bit stumped with trades this week, but I'll share what I'm thinking and see if anyone has any other suggestions. Rank 264 currently, and in a relatively strong position compared to other years where I've been towards the pointy end. I'll post below my team before this week's trades for reference.
I'll use Sicily's money now to get points on field. At this stage I'm passing up the cheap options like Yeo and HH, also Doch and Houston (though I like them as premium options). Luke Ryan is the guy at 502k.
A simple downgrade of Ford to basement-price Maric for an extra playing number this week, a rookie with solid JS and of course to free up cash.
Third trade this week is Knevitt to Darcy Cameron who will be my F6 and provide ruck cover for the remainder of the season. If Knevitt is a late in or even named sub, I will trade Cincotta instead.
This leaves me with 2 midfield upgrades left to make, and I can see this going one of two ways. Both options involve trading Johnson, Seamus and Humphrey and selecting a M/F floating donut:
1. Oliver and best affordable (likely to be LDU). Full premium with 4 trades to ride out the final 9 rounds.
2. Go down to 3 trades at full premium, by trading Knevitt/Cincotta (whichever I don't trade this week) to a defensive rookie who presents as season cover at D7, which also allows more cash to get a better M8 (i.e. Oliver and Trac/Libba/Serong).
I'll use Sicily's money now to get points on field. At this stage I'm passing up the cheap options like Yeo and HH, also Doch and Houston (though I like them as premium options). Luke Ryan is the guy at 502k.
A simple downgrade of Ford to basement-price Maric for an extra playing number this week, a rookie with solid JS and of course to free up cash.
Third trade this week is Knevitt to Darcy Cameron who will be my F6 and provide ruck cover for the remainder of the season. If Knevitt is a late in or even named sub, I will trade Cincotta instead.
This leaves me with 2 midfield upgrades left to make, and I can see this going one of two ways. Both options involve trading Johnson, Seamus and Humphrey and selecting a M/F floating donut:
1. Oliver and best affordable (likely to be LDU). Full premium with 4 trades to ride out the final 9 rounds.
2. Go down to 3 trades at full premium, by trading Knevitt/Cincotta (whichever I don't trade this week) to a defensive rookie who presents as season cover at D7, which also allows more cash to get a better M8 (i.e. Oliver and Trac/Libba/Serong).
You seem to be tracking pretty well from a cash/cover perspective, so my initial reaction was to get the better premium.
On second thoughts, trades are getting tight, so I’d probably be inclined to get the best you can while not using two trades to do so.
Worth flagging that Humphrey’s CBAs were down last week, and you don’t seem to need him as a cash cow, so perhaps your confidence in his role, and what that means for his optimal trade out time (could be a hold on a good role, or a near term sell if he’s lost it) might be a good way to decide.
On second thoughts, trades are getting tight, so I’d probably be inclined to get the best you can while not using two trades to do so.
Worth flagging that Humphrey’s CBAs were down last week, and you don’t seem to need him as a cash cow, so perhaps your confidence in his role, and what that means for his optimal trade out time (could be a hold on a good role, or a near term sell if he’s lost it) might be a good way to decide.
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Oliver out for another week hurts, surprisngly have moved up the ranks with him sideline to circa 13.5k, (18k pre bye) from 77k in round 4.
Making hard decision to move Wardlaw on and keep Atkins given extra player this week.
Cincotta Wardlaw and Ashcroft out
Neale Darcy Cam and Maric in
One premium to go, will take three trades to het premium mid like a petracca. Only other is Merrett to go. Have Libba.
Will be full prem, 2 trades, DC to cover rucks, S Mitchell as 23rd player to cover all lines using DPP.
Making hard decision to move Wardlaw on and keep Atkins given extra player this week.
Cincotta Wardlaw and Ashcroft out
Neale Darcy Cam and Maric in
One premium to go, will take three trades to het premium mid like a petracca. Only other is Merrett to go. Have Libba.
Will be full prem, 2 trades, DC to cover rucks, S Mitchell as 23rd player to cover all lines using DPP.
I’m a big fan of holding if you aren’t thrilled with the trade in you’d get instead. This season has been so volatile with injuries and suspensions, you’re only 1 tackle away from being down a premium. If you were keen on Trac it is good to pull the trigger but I can just see major remorse if you got him and he’s the next to cop the volatility. Can happen with any player so it’s no him per se, it just compounds the feeling if it’s someone you didn’t really want AND they burn you.
If you don't already own him, I would be steering clear of Trac at 650k
He's had a great run with Clarry out, and is maxed in price. Clarry back next week and probably pulls him back to the 110 range? If anything, it's probably more a time to cash Trac out, not bring him in (not that I'd trade him here but you see my point). His disposal is iffy. so without goals he chucks in a lot of 95-100 scores...
Crazy as it sounds - I'd probably be looking at Walsh for your side (if you weren't going Clarry).
We all know what a freak Clarry is - he's going to bounce back very fast. So no issues with waiting a week for him....
He's had a great run with Clarry out, and is maxed in price. Clarry back next week and probably pulls him back to the 110 range? If anything, it's probably more a time to cash Trac out, not bring him in (not that I'd trade him here but you see my point). His disposal is iffy. so without goals he chucks in a lot of 95-100 scores...
Crazy as it sounds - I'd probably be looking at Walsh for your side (if you weren't going Clarry).
We all know what a freak Clarry is - he's going to bounce back very fast. So no issues with waiting a week for him....
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Looking at a couple of scenarios:
Option 1:
Briggs to Brayshaw
Ford to Maric
Sheezal to Yeo
Leaves me with $175K to trade Cogs to Clarry next week or following week. Down to 4 trades after that.
Option 2:
Briggs to Trac
Foord to Maric
Sheezal to Ridley
Next week or two would need to downgrade Cincotta to a rookie to upgrade to Clarry.
Option 3:
Keep Briggs as R3 for his cash gen
Ford to Maric
Cogs to Brayshaw
Cincotta to Yeo / moves Day to M8
Any thoughts, as it feels like my season hangs on the line with these trades.
Option 1:
Briggs to Brayshaw
Ford to Maric
Sheezal to Yeo
Leaves me with $175K to trade Cogs to Clarry next week or following week. Down to 4 trades after that.
Option 2:
Briggs to Trac
Foord to Maric
Sheezal to Ridley
Next week or two would need to downgrade Cincotta to a rookie to upgrade to Clarry.
Option 3:
Keep Briggs as R3 for his cash gen
Ford to Maric
Cogs to Brayshaw
Cincotta to Yeo / moves Day to M8
Any thoughts, as it feels like my season hangs on the line with these trades.
The way I see it mate I'll get a Humphrey 70 by holding and Trac very likely to be kept to 90-100 in woeful conditions with a Blicavs/MOC hanging off him all night, Clarry makes back that small margin over Trac from next week onwards for mine, often you find once match fit games missed like this can actually help the player, Clarry hasnt been getting smashed in every contest for a while now most of the core should be pretty fresh just gotta build that fitness base back up again and he has 10 days between games now to get himself right.
If Trac would get me to 18 It would a no brainer but just isn't the scenario I am faced with.
If Trac would get me to 18 It would a no brainer but just isn't the scenario I am faced with.
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Hey guys, sitting just outside ~top 1000 so looking for some additional advice this week. Planned the last 3 weeks around getting Oliver in and finishing my team this week, but him not being selected has thrown a spanner in the works.
I plan on bringing in DCam as FWD/RUCK cover for the year as well as Dewar for FWD/DEF loop as Seamus is my cover.
I'm looking at 18 playing this week, but I have a feeling Johnson might be dropped with Aish, Frederick and Darcy looking available for selection this week. O'Meara back last week stole CBA's from Johnson who was then subbed with a hip pointer injury. I also have Humphrey playing whose role looks suspect after very little CBAs last week.
If that ended up being the case, I have 17 playing which is not the target of 18/19 like I'm seeing from most people.
I feel like I only have a few options here, which is bring in Petracca who is overpriced at $650k or Serong at $584k but either way I would be fading Oliver for the rest of the year (which just feels wrong and mentally don't think I can root against him for 9 rounds).
I tend to agree with Shaun that tonight's game looms as a question mark for Petracca, who is likely to be tagged by Blicavs since they brought in Stanley for a full game of ruck (I believe) and the conditions are also likely to be pretty dismal in Geelong.
If I end up having 17, I feel like I have to pull the trigger on Petracca and there is no way I can get a sideways trade to Oliver later in the year as he's probably unlikely to drop under $630k whereas one true stinker from Petracca could potentially allow for that.
I don't think I have the luxury to wait a week if Johnson gets dropped, but pulling the trigger this week on Petracca just feels hard to stomach even though he's been playing decent footy this year.
Any advice?
I plan on bringing in DCam as FWD/RUCK cover for the year as well as Dewar for FWD/DEF loop as Seamus is my cover.
I'm looking at 18 playing this week, but I have a feeling Johnson might be dropped with Aish, Frederick and Darcy looking available for selection this week. O'Meara back last week stole CBA's from Johnson who was then subbed with a hip pointer injury. I also have Humphrey playing whose role looks suspect after very little CBAs last week.
If that ended up being the case, I have 17 playing which is not the target of 18/19 like I'm seeing from most people.
I feel like I only have a few options here, which is bring in Petracca who is overpriced at $650k or Serong at $584k but either way I would be fading Oliver for the rest of the year (which just feels wrong and mentally don't think I can root against him for 9 rounds).
I tend to agree with Shaun that tonight's game looms as a question mark for Petracca, who is likely to be tagged by Blicavs since they brought in Stanley for a full game of ruck (I believe) and the conditions are also likely to be pretty dismal in Geelong.
If I end up having 17, I feel like I have to pull the trigger on Petracca and there is no way I can get a sideways trade to Oliver later in the year as he's probably unlikely to drop under $630k whereas one true stinker from Petracca could potentially allow for that.
I don't think I have the luxury to wait a week if Johnson gets dropped, but pulling the trigger this week on Petracca just feels hard to stomach even though he's been playing decent footy this year.
Any advice?
For whatever reason opposition just havent put anywhere near as much work into him this year, at some point as he chases the Charles opposition heat is going to come surely, think it starts this weekend Id be absolutely astounded if Blicavs doesnt wear him like a glove all nignt, in poor conditions a few clangers and one of his standard down games feels more likely than a huge one to me.
If I get it wrong I get it wrong, dont mind losing points if I've formulated a way to play a scenario with my own logic, can't really see the future but got to play the percentages, fading Clarry with an easy draw for 9 weeks doesnt feel like filling that criteria haha, it does if a upgrade now gets you to 18 or an extra 100 points on ground but Im not in that scenario so can play it more patiently.
If I get it wrong I get it wrong, dont mind losing points if I've formulated a way to play a scenario with my own logic, can't really see the future but got to play the percentages, fading Clarry with an easy draw for 9 weeks doesnt feel like filling that criteria haha, it does if a upgrade now gets you to 18 or an extra 100 points on ground but Im not in that scenario so can play it more patiently.
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I think for the teams in a scenario where fading Oliver means they get to 18 this week I'd just do the trade and take him on, could lose 100 points this week in the blink of an eye, I'd pick Serong over Petracca though personally bottomed out and too good to play like he has the last fortnight long term, Darcy back helps massively aswell.
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Do you have any concern over Serong's "lingering" injury concerns? Left training early last week and JL has mentioned he's dealing with a leg/ankle problem but his form doesn't seem to indicate it. If it wasn't for poor efficiency and clangers last week, he was on track for 150.
I'm also trying to think about the points lost vs points gained. Petracca did 120 after the bye last year and Oliver did 132. Every chance that Clarry's fitness takes a few games to build up, or he comes out flying and it ends in tears. Conversely, same thing with Petracca if I fade him.
I'm just really hoping Johnson plays at this point so I can avoid the headache and finish my team next round.
I'm also trying to think about the points lost vs points gained. Petracca did 120 after the bye last year and Oliver did 132. Every chance that Clarry's fitness takes a few games to build up, or he comes out flying and it ends in tears. Conversely, same thing with Petracca if I fade him.
I'm just really hoping Johnson plays at this point so I can avoid the headache and finish my team next round.