How to pick my team (with an Analysis of last 3 SuperCoach Winner)!

Joined
19 Jun 2012
Messages
8,560
Likes
11,561
AFL Club
Collingwood
#21
Great to have you on board, Blue.
Thanks for the wrap. I wondered if you visited here when I was writing your season up.
If you have room, we'd love to have you in one of our leagues.
WOW, wouldn't that be a boast! The last 3 winners of Supercoach, all in the one league??!!!

.....does anyone know where we can find Buster Gonad? Maybe we can get a league with the last FOUR winners??!!! :)
I second that motion. Welcome Blue. I have to try the 'balls out' approach, beats my 'pissing in the wind' approach. Little bit of royalty here. Jay will have to bring out another Knights Cross. As for you Rowsus...the above is well worth the read. Pleasingly, I followed similiar principles your three featured winners followed, although did not recognise the true value of selecting the hopeful improver as compared to those who would tread water in the premium/gun categories. For example, I now have an eye on Dal Santo..
 
Last edited:
Joined
12 Nov 2012
Messages
43
Likes
0
AFL Club
Collingwood
#22
@Rowsus - that is fantastic analysis right there. Very interesting & much appreciated!

Seems to have attracted a bit of Supercoach royalty too as Courtesans said :)
 

mutleyblue

2010 AFL SuperCoach Winner
Joined
4 Jul 2012
Messages
66
Likes
20
AFL Club
Carlton
#23
Thanks guys Jay runs a great website and I love his out there thinking on supercoach.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#24
@Rowsus - that is fantastic analysis right there. Very interesting & much appreciated!

Seems to have attracted a bit of Supercoach royalty too as Courtesans said :)
I second that motion. Welcome Blue. I have to try the 'balls out' approach, beats my 'pissing in the wind' approach. Little bit of royalty here. Jay will have to bring out another Knights Cross. As for you Rowsus...the above is well worth the read. Pleasingly, I followed similiar principles your three featured winners followed, although did not recognise the true value of selecting the hopeful improver as compared to those who would tread water in the premium/gun categories. For example, I now have an eye on Dal Santo..
Thanks guys. I'm currently doing Buster Gonads team, the winner from 2009. I might do 1 or 2 more, if I can find them.
My next project is to start listing the Returners/Fallen Premiums for the up coming season. If we have a list it might make it easier for everyone.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#25
Looking at Buster Gonads team from 2009. This guy nearly wrote the book on sticking to the game plan! Only traded premiums when injured. Bought rookies on the bubble. Kept trades up his sleeve. And even did a bit of "Blocking", the same as Jay in 2011. (By Blocking I mean protecting your lead by trading-in players that teams chasing him had, and he didn't, thereby nullifying their POD.) His whole season could be summed up in the one word that 98% of Coaches (including me) are missing - DISCIPLINE!
His pre-season selections were a little more like Blue's than Chewy's and Jay's, being prepared to pay a little more for some quality cattle.

Player - (2008 ranking) - (2009 ranking) players in red did not finish in his team
Ablett - (1) - (1)
Cox - (5) - (12) - traded out in rnd 16, when injured
Pavlich - (7) - (32)
Judd - (8) - (13)
Goddard - (13) - (5)
Fisher - (16) - (43)
Franklin - (22) - 101 - traded out rnd 22, when injured
Deledio - (25) - (23)
Selwood - (51) - (18)
Chapman - (52) - (6) - traded out in rnd 19, when injured
Gibbs - (69) - (19)
Cornes C - (91) - (104) - traded out in in rnd 12, when injured
Drummond - (92) - (54)

4 picks in the top 10 most expensive players
6 picks in the top 20
8 picks in the top 30
8 picks in the top 50
13 picks in the top 100

I guess one of the reasons for his discipline was the success of his 13 most expensive players. Buddy 22nd to 101st, dropping his average by about 20 was his only bad result. Fisher falling from 16th to 43rd wasn't great, but as backman averaging around 93 you'd still take it. Pavlich had a bad year by his standards at the time, too. He fell from 7th to 32nd, which while useful, drained a little unnecessary cash. So that's 1 bad, and 2 below par results. 5 players pretty much held their ground - Ablett, Cornes, Judd, Deledio and Cox. That leaves him with 5 great results, highlighted by Chapman 52nd to 6th and Gibbs 69th to 19th. He was also pretty successful with his 11 Young Speculation and Returning players. Those things taken into account, it is no wonder he was able to complete his team fairly quickly, AND keep some trades up his sleeve.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#26
Buster Gonads started with:
Super Premiums/Premiums - 7 (Goddard, Fisher, Ablett, Judd, Cox, Franklin, Pavlich)
Guns - 1 (Deledio)
Young Speculatives - 3 (Gibbs, Selwood, Krakouer N)
Returners - 8 (Drummond, Cornes C, Raines, Houlihan, Skipworth, McIntosh, Chapman, Higgins)
Rookies - 11

Simplifying the numbers, Buster started with 8 Premium/Guns, 11 Midprice/Bargains and 11 Rookies. I think his success comes down to sticking to a plan, having patience and discipline, and bit of great judgement thrown in as well. 2 of his 3 YS's turned into Guns (Gibbs and Selwood), 1 of his Returning players turned into a Premium (Chapman), 1 turned into a Gun (Drummond), and he got good service from another 4 of his returners (Cornes, Houlihan, McIntosh, Higgins). He was pro-active in fixing early mistakes (Raines), followed a similar to path to Blue Thunder with his cash cows, in that he didn't wait to milk every last dollar out of them. If there was a down grade target available, he was prepared to milk a cow 2, 3 or even 4 weeks before what some coaches might think was ideal. He traded Ablett out when he got injured for 3 weeks, and got him back at the first opportunity (5 weeks later). He pretty much played the game EXACTLY how I have read nearly every SC Blogger say they will play the game. The one difference was that he stayed the path! He wasn't distracted, sidetracked, or lulled into unnecessary risks or gambles. He didn't panic, and thought a few weeks ahead, without having things written in stone. He took chances, he opted for Didak over Riewoldt in round 13, when most Coaches would have taken Riewoldt. It turned out to be a great move. Didak went 163, 136, 132 in the next 3 rounds against Roos 96, 107, 96! He managed to bring in the right players, at the right time (Hurn, RO'K) which is the luck/good judgement we all need. He got ahead with good POD's, kept some back-up trades up his sleeve, and closed down the avenues of attack his nearest opposition had. Textbook SuperCoaching!
 
Last edited:

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#27
[table="width: 700, align: center"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Chewy[/td]
[td]Impromptu[/td]
[td]Blue Th[/td]
[td]Buster[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 5's[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 10's[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 20's[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 30's[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 50's[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 100's[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Prem/Guns[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mid/Barg[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Rookies[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]non-rookie fails[/td]
[td]5/18[/td]
[td]6/20[/td]
[td]8/20[/td]
[td]4/19[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r13[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r14[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r15[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r16[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
 

IDIG

Leadership Group
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
35,325
Likes
20,502
AFL Club
Essendon
#28
Ripping thread fellas and wouldn't it be epic if we were able to find all previous winners and place getters into the one league??

On topic, i was G'n'R all the way but on the back of the info in this thread, might look for a bit of value rather than just pick top enders. I still feel a bit (or alot) of balance is needed but will definitely be more open minded.

Now...deciding if a player is a fallen premium or just over the hill... :eek:
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#29
Ripping thread fellas and wouldn't it be epic if we were able to find all previous winners and place getters into the one league??

On topic, i was G'n'R all the way but on the back of the info in this thread, might look for a bit of value rather than just pick top enders. I still feel a bit (or alot) of balance is needed but will definitely be more open minded.

Now...deciding if a player is a fallen premium or just over the hill... :eek:
Spot on IDIG, are they over hill, or can they bounce back?
Also...... was that good season they had in 2010/11, or just one out of the box? We all know players that just seemed to click in that one season, or even half season, and his figures looked great. It turns out that was just his purple patch, and he is unable to replicate it on a consistent basis. My guess is Stantons early season form might fall into that catagory last season. There will be coaches taking him in 2013 confident he can do something like he did early in 2012. Good luck to them if he proves me wrong, but I won't be taking him.
We need to seperate the chaff from the wheat. The capable from the lucky. The consistent from the fleeting.
Anyone with any ideas how we do that? :confused:
 
Last edited:

IDIG

Leadership Group
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
35,325
Likes
20,502
AFL Club
Essendon
#30
Spot on IDIG, are they over hill, or can they bounce back?
Also...... was that good season they had in 2010/11 just one out of the box? We all know players that just seemed to click in that one season, or even half season, and his figures looked great. It turns out that was just his purple patch, and he is unable to replicate it on a consistent basis. My guess is Stantons early season form might fall into that catagory last season. There will be coaches taking him in 2013 confident he can do something like he did early in 2012. Good luck to them if he proves me wrong, but I won't be taking him.
We need to seperate the chaff from the wheat. The capable from the lucky. The consistent from the fleeting.
Anyone with any ideas how we do that? :confused:
Gee wasn't Stanton's season some kind of roller coaster. I know 2 astute coaches who both brought him at almost his maximum price...to then watch him not ton up the second half of the season!

I think Newman, Goodes, Hodge all fall into some kind of category..all of which i'm considering on pure historical figures but i think perhaps they're no longer fallen and just over the hill?
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#31
Gee wasn't Stanton's season some kind of roller coaster. I know 2 astute coaches who both brought him at almost his maximum price...to then watch him not ton up the second half of the season!

I think Newman, Goodes, Hodge all fall into some kind of category..all of which i'm considering on pure historical figures but i think perhaps they're no longer fallen and just over the hill?
Certainly with Hodge and Goodes they are falling into the catagory of aging players that miss more games as they get older. You could wear it if they averaged 130, or ripped out a 150 every 4th week. As it is, I think there is too much downside with them. Scores diminishing a little, games/season diminishing a lot. Newman might find the freedom that some players find when they relinquish the captaincy. I won't be having him though, there are too many established Guns at Richmond, and maybe one or 2 more coming through this season. He might stay the general, directing the traffic in the backline, but I don't think he will play that "quarterback" type role that Hodge made famous 4-5 seasons ago.
 
Joined
19 Jun 2012
Messages
8,560
Likes
11,561
AFL Club
Collingwood
#32
'My next project is to start listing the Returners/Fallen Premiums for the up coming season. If we have a list it might make it easier for everyone.'

Look forward to this..tell me how good Dal Santo is:)
 
Last edited:

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#33
Returners/Fallen Premiums (now known as VPP's - refer Jays latest article) are done for the Rucks.
I have posted it in the Player Discussion: Rucks (RUC) section.
I will get to the other positions over the next week to 10 days.
 
Joined
7 May 2012
Messages
2,751
Likes
92
AFL Club
Richmond
#34
Great stuff Rowsus always love reading what you write.
With the 8 starting Mids will that be a change in pick a couple of mid price players to help with early round scoring. Sometimes you can fall to far behind the leaders early on.
 
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
2,790
Likes
2,985
AFL Club
Adelaide
#35
What i take from these excellent summaries is that aggressive and smart trading is arguably more important than tbe starting side although that starting side needs to conform largley with the standard players. Do we think any of those starting sides were really different from the common picked sides in each year apart from a few unique choices?

Its like you need to just keep up at the start and then bring on the best scoring premiums as they come up which in some cases means taking leaps of faith a la Beams last year.

The keeping up need i think is where the importance of value comes in.

Great reading well done Rowsus.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
29,134
Likes
64,904
AFL Club
Melbourne
#36
I have made a list of VPP's for defence, but due to time commitments, it won't be posted until around 4am tomorrow morning.
It will be in the Player Discussion Defenders (DEF) section.
There are around 25 to list, and comment on, so it will take me a while.
I won't be able to begin until I get home around 1am. I have my final Danish exam today, around 11.30am Copenhagen time (9.30pm Melbourne time). Once that's done, I'm free (if I pass) to do nothing but bother you people with my statistics and research! :)
 

Impromptu

Strategist
Joined
1 Mar 2012
Messages
6,911
Likes
8,228
AFL Club
Essendon
#37
I have made a list of VPP's for defence, but due to time commitments, it won't be posted until around 4am tomorrow morning.
It will be in the Player Discussion Defenders (DEF) section.
There are around 25 to list, and comment on, so it will take me a while.
I won't be able to begin until I get home around 1am. I have my final Danish exam today, around 11.30am Copenhagen time (9.30pm Melbourne time). Once that's done, I'm free (if I pass) to do nothing but bother you people with my statistics and research! :)
Don't worry about us mate, STUDY HARD.

Good luck with your exam mate!
 
Joined
28 Jun 2012
Messages
5,408
Likes
3,683
AFL Club
Bulldogs
#39
What score should we be getting round 1? In terms of getting the best value for your dollar
 
Top