How to pick my team (with an Analysis of last 3 SuperCoach Winner)!

[Rowsus]

'My next project is to start listing the Returners/Fallen Premiums for the up coming season. If we have a list it might make it easier for everyone.'

Look forward to this..tell me how good Dal Santo is

Just for you, my friend, Courtesans.
Nick Dal Santo: born 22/2/1984 so will be 29 when 2013 starts. Price $544,800.
2005 22 games at 124.0
2006 22 games at 117.2 Ranked 4
2007 22 games at 115.9 Ranked 3
2008 21 games at 101.8
2009 21 games at 115.8 Ranked 8
2010 21 games at 112.5 Ranked 10
2011 22 games at 119.4 Ranked 3
2012 22 games at 101.8 Ranked 24

Sorry, can't find his ranking for 2005 and 2008 (Rankings are based on total points, not average). Just guessing, but 2005 would have been top 10, and 2008 would have been top 30, based on last years result.
What can you say about a player that has been top 10 rated in 6 out of 8 years, and top 30 in the other 2?
He enters the 2013 season at his lowest price since the first year of SC, but still managed a top 30 ranking. He only missed 3 games in that time, so he has been a Gun, Premium or Super Premium every season. I can't see any reasons behind his drop off in 2012. Maybe he played sore in a number of games, but it is hard to pin it on that. He matched his 2008 season for average, and we know he bounced back from that the next year. I don't think 29 is too old to bounce back again.
I thought I might look for some compelling reasons for him to bounce back, and the only thing I could think of is: He no longer has BJ and Gram to compete with, and Hayes would need to be Tony Stark to have a full impact after heart surgery. So how do Dal Santos figures look when he plays without 1 or more of Goddard, Gram and Hayes?

[table="width: 700, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]Time frame[/td]
[td]NDS Ave[/td]
[td]No God[/td]
[td]No Gram[/td]
[td]No Hay[/td]
[td]1 or more[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Last 1 yr[/td]
[td]22/101.82[/td]
[td]2/90.50[/td]
[td]5/119.80[/td]
[td]N/A[/td]
[td]7/111.43[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Last 2 yrs[/td]
[td]44/110.61[/td]
[td]2/90.50[/td]
[td]8/117.38[/td]
[td]2/110.00[/td]
[td]12/111.67[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Last 3 yrs[/td]
[td]65/111.22[/td]
[td]3/96.00[/td]
[td]17/119.12[/td]
[td]3/130.00[/td]
[td]23/117.52[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Last 4 yrs[/td]
[td]86/112.31[/td]
[td]3/96.00[/td]
[td]18/116.22[/td]
[td]5/119.40[/td]
[td]26/118.35[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Last 5 yrs[/td]
[td]107/110.20[/td]
[td]5/104.80[/td]
[td]18/116.22[/td]
[td]6/112.83[/td]
[td]29/117.00[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Last 6 yrs[/td]
[td]129/111.16[/td]
[td]11/106.91[/td]
[td]20/116.20[/td]
[td]9/113.33[/td]
[td]36/117.08[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

So over a period of time he only scores about 5 or 6 points better when one of those 3 is missing. Hardly compelling. He actually scores better when BJ plays, but we are only talking about them missing 11 games together in those 6 years. I was hoping this might reveal something amazing, but it didn't. It did answer the question some might have been wondering: "How will BJ leaving affect Dals scores?"
All in all, I haven't produced anything solid you can hang your hat on, except for his amazing consistency. Even if he can't reach premium level this year, at his price, you can take him with confidence that he should at least reach Gun level.
My early Xmas present to you, Courtesans.

 

[hammo42]

Just for you, my friend, Courtesans.
Nick Dal Santo: born 22/2/1984 so will be 29 when 2013 starts. Price $544,800.
2005 22 games at 124.0
2006 22 games at 117.2 Ranked 4
2007 22 games at 115.9 Ranked 3
2008 21 games at 101.8
2009 21 games at 115.8 Ranked 8
2010 21 games at 112.5 Ranked 10
2011 22 games at 119.4 Ranked 3
2012 22 games at 101.8 Ranked 24

What can you say about a player that has been top 10 rated in 6 out of 8 years, and top 30 in the other 2?

I can't see any reasons behind his drop off in 2012.

What a fantastic SC player!

Last season I recall hearing radio commentary about how clubs were tagging NDS rather than Hayes or Montagna because they identified his damaging ball-use and decision-making as a key to breaking down St.Kilda's game plan. I watched a few games since and it was clear the tag on NDS was affecting his game, so much so that I included in my SC notes for 2013 to avoid NDS for that reason - he can't handle the tag.

I don't know how heavily he was tagged in the past - the Saints have had a gun midfield for some time now, so maybe he wasn't tagged as often previously. It's not like NDS has only recently become damaging. Maybe they now rely on him just that little bit more. With Goddard and Gram gone, maybe that reliance increases, attracting a more regular tag. Then again, the Saints would be aware of it so they might do some tweaking to release NDS more.

At that price NDS is great value based on past figures. The departure of Goddard and Gram is a double-edged sword.

 

[Nk29]

What a fantastic SC player!

Last season I recall hearing radio commentary about how clubs were tagging NDS rather than Hayes or Montagna because they identified his damaging ball-use and decision-making as a key to breaking down St.Kilda's game plan. I watched a few games since and it was clear the tag on NDS was affecting his game, so much so that I included in my SC notes for 2013 to avoid NDS for that reason - he can't handle the tag.

I don't know how heavily he was tagged in the past - the Saints have had a gun midfield for some time now, so maybe he wasn't tagged as often previously. It's not like NDS has only recently become damaging. Maybe they now rely on him just that little bit more. With Goddard and Gram gone, maybe that reliance increases, attracting a more regular tag. Then again, the Saints would be aware of it so they might do some tweaking to release NDS more.

At that price NDS is great value based on past figures. The departure of Goddard and Gram is a double-edged sword.

Noticed this too. Also, I thjink that his drop in average when Goddard doesn't play can be attributed to greater attention from taggers, which he struggles to deal with. Also NDS is more of an outside player so he can be shut down more easily by oppositions. This year, I noticed that most teams stopped focusing on tagging inside players as much and instead put the clamps on outside players as they were easier to stop and had the same effect in stopping the supply to the forward line. As a result, NDS average fell. Unless he can start dealing with a tag, which is unlikely at his age, I don't feel comfortable selecting him.

 

[Hairy]

St Kilda are on a downward spiral and the more they lose the less points he gets.

He coped the tag every game last year and struggled to shack it. he is still a gun... but just a little risky.

Im looking for teams like essendon and richmond to improve. Maybe someone from there if ur looking for bargains

 

[hammo42]

Is it just me, or is anyone else having trouble selecting cheapish forward rookies? Stringer and Mayes should get games at the Bulldogs and Lions, Menzel too at the Blues, but they come with a higher price tag. Who of the cheaper forward line rookies do you think will get early games?

Would Ben Kennedy at the Pies get games? Lee at the Saints?

Also, are there any mature-agers worth considering? Are there any Magners on next season's lists? Goodes at the Dogs would have to get games - a 28yo recruit would have to play in a young list.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Is it just me, or is anyone else having trouble selecting cheapish forward rookies? Stringer and Mayes should get games at the Bulldogs and Lions, Menzel too at the Blues, but they come with a higher price tag. Who of the cheaper forward line rookies do you think will get early games?

Would Ben Kennedy at the Pies get games? Lee at the Saints?

Also, are there any mature-agers worth considering? Are there any Magners on next season's lists? Goodes at the Dogs would have to get games - a 28yo recruit would have to play in a young list.

Lee I think will be one. not sure I will pick him but he is likely to be an option... down back I think Goodes will be the Mohr or Morris of 2013.. solid reliable rookie that gets you through to byes then upgrade and cash in.

Jed Lamb of Swans is one I'm looking at up forward. See what happens in pre-season practice games then much more will be clear.

 

[IDIG]

What a fantastic SC player!

Last season I recall hearing radio commentary about how clubs were tagging NDS rather than Hayes or Montagna because they identified his damaging ball-use and decision-making as a key to breaking down St.Kilda's game plan. I watched a few games since and it was clear the tag on NDS was affecting his game, so much so that I included in my SC notes for 2013 to avoid NDS for that reason - he can't handle the tag.

I don't know how heavily he was tagged in the past - the Saints have had a gun midfield for some time now, so maybe he wasn't tagged as often previously. It's not like NDS has only recently become damaging. Maybe they now rely on him just that little bit more. With Goddard and Gram gone, maybe that reliance increases, attracting a more regular tag. Then again, the Saints would be aware of it so they might do some tweaking to release NDS more.

At that price NDS is great value based on past figures. The departure of Goddard and Gram is a double-edged sword.

Yep very true with Nicky Dal. I was a believer in him last year and he hurt me big time. Thought he could work out as some kind of POD but as it turns out he was a negative one, and that was it. I won't be touching him this year as much as I think he's capable of being a top 10 mid..there's just so many other options available now, i don't think it worth the risk.

 

[IDIG]

. I want to demonstrate once again how important it is to get good value from your initial $10,000,000.
Once again looking at chewylizards team.
Chewy started with 12 players that cost $400k or more.
The interesting thing is to look at not only where those 12 players finished on the 2011 ave/game ladder (ie how they looked when chewy chose them), but also to look at where they finished 2012 on the ave/game ladder.
Player -(2011 ranking) - (2012 ranking) - red means traded out, and did not finish in his team.

Ablett - (2) - (1)
Mumford - (13) - (98)
Selwood - (15) - (8)
Franklin - (16) - (11)
Goddard - (23) - (46)
Watson - (27) - (5)
Pavlich - (28) - (20)
Deledio (30) - (9)
Montagno (46) - (54)
Martin - (50) - (119)
Sidebottom - (131) - (27)
Dangerfield - (165) - (7)

So chewy started with only one of the 12 most expensive players (Ablett): looking at this year the 12 most expensive players are: Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Beams, Watson, Kennedy, Dangerfield, Selwood, Deledio, Cotchin, Franklin, Tuck. How many of you are being brave enough to start with only one player from this group?
He started with only 4 of the top 20 - (add Mummy, Selwood and Buddy to Ablett), players 13 to 20 this year are: NicNat, Maric, Boyd, Murphy, Sandilands, Jack, Cox, Pavlich. How many of you are brave enough to start 2013 with only 4 of the top 20?
So he chose 12 players over $400k, and finished with 10 of them.
1 in the top 10,
4 in the top 20,
8 in the top 30,
10 in the top 50, then threw in Sidey and Danger at 131 and 165.
Of the 10 players he chose and kept, 8 of them improved their position from 2011 to 2012, some of them markedly!
165th to 7th, 131st to 27th, 27th to 5th, 30th to 9th.
Look also at where the money was spent. He didn't load up on the Mids that were overpriced, and had little chance of holding their value, let alone increasing it.
Mids - Ablett (2), Selwood (15), Watson (27), Montagna (46)
Fwd/Mids - Pavlich (28), Martin (50), Sidebottom (131), Dangerfield (165)
Def/Mids - Goddard (23), Deledio (30)
Ruck - Mumford (13)
Fwd - Franklin (16)
He started with versatilty and value.

Just want to bump this ripping thread for the new posters who may not have read how the previous winners picked their starting team. I'm really starting to reconsider the amount of full pricers I've currently got that's for sure..

 

[Nk29]

Just want to bump this ripping thread for the new posters who may not have read how the previous winners picked their starting team. I'm really starting to reconsider the amount of full pricers I've currently got that's for sure..

Gives me confidence in not selecting Ablett, Goddard and Buddy

 

[aj74]

Top thread and a totally different way to look at your setup. The RMT posts we see everywhere back that statement up I think.

I like the ones about trading to win too. Wish they existed back in 2010 when I really needed them

 

[Courtesans]

How does the feel of 12-13 premiums, 3-4 spec./comeback player/ex premium, the balance rookies still resonate?

 

[Courtesans]

How to pick my team indeed. We all do it differently. Day three or four now.

Watching 'Aliens' with a red and a smoke. Three pencils, green, red, blue for 8, 9 and 10. My list of thirty or so rookies have their price, position/s, team and colour engraved. Memorise the byes...green, red and blue.

Pick my certain premiums, value players, rookies, DPP's. Allow for the byes, is 10, 11, 9 ok..yes, nice start.

Finished for tonight, love my team.

There is tomorrow..

 

[Philzsay]

How to build my team indeed. We all do it differently. Day three or four now.

Watching 'Aliens' with a red and a smoke. Three pencils, green, red, blue for 8, 9 and 10. My list of thirty or so rookies have their price, position/s, team and colour engraved. Memorise the byes...green, red and blue.

Pick my certain premiums, value players, rookies, DPP's. Allow for the byes, is 10, 11, 9 ok..yes, nice start.

Finished for tonight, love my team.

There is tomorrow..

Old school with coloured pencils hey!

 

[Courtesans]

Old school with coloured pencils hey!

Hey Philzsay, worked for a millennia or two, I'm going with it!

Nothing like sheets of paper all over the floor, then searching for the one you want..

 

[Schmicko]

Hey Philzsay, worked for a millennia or two, I'm going with it!

Nothing like sheets of paper all over the floor, then searching for the one you want..

...add a couple of ol' school spreadsheets with team fixtures/sunday games for floating donut/ captain options, lol

 

[IDIG]

One of my fave threads so giving it a quick bump before the real stuff starts.

 

[Bomber18]

[table="width: 700, align: center"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Chewy[/td]
[td]Impromptu[/td]
[td]Blue Th[/td]
[td]Buster[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 5's[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 10's[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 20's[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 30's[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 50's[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Top 100's[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Prem/Guns[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mid/Barg[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Rookies[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]non-rookie fails[/td]
[td]5/18[/td]
[td]6/20[/td]
[td]8/20[/td]
[td]4/19[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r13[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r14[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r15[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Trades at r16[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Bumping this after re-reading, ty for Ref Rowsus.

What's everyone's top 5, 10, 20 looking like?

I have the top 5 of the 5. Safe to say I won't win SC this season as most winners had only 1-2. and 2 of top 5-10.
so 2 of Hannebery, Mundy, Beams, Priddis, Deledio?

I think with discounts to Pendles/Ablett this season they probably fit better in the 5-10 category.

 

[Rockydunlop]

ripping thread and a must read before season commencement

 

[Darkie]

Bumping this after re-reading, ty for Ref Rowsus.

What's everyone's top 5, 10, 20 looking like?

I have the top 5 of the 5. Safe to say I won't win SC this season as most winners had only 1-2. and 2 of top 5-10.
so 2 of Hannebery, Mundy, Beams, Priddis, Deledio?

I think with discounts to Pendles/Ablett this season they probably fit better in the 5-10 category.

Agreed on this Bomber - this is a fantastic thread, and Pendles, Ablett etc are still potential value picks even though they are quite high priced.

My split is:

Top 5: 4
No others in top 20
Top 30: 5
Top 50: 7
Top 100: 10

So my "curve" is a bit more skewed to the very top scorers, with 7 of the top 50 overall being slightly below the previous winners above, at 8-11.

I think much of that is because of the cheap ultra premiums in the mids - investing more dollars in the $600k plus range makes sense to me, but means that my forward and defence picks are perhaps also more value-oriented (Bartel, Smith, Barlow, Boomer, vs Shaw, Lids, Montagna types) ... and therefore not in the top 50 overall (given that prices and averages tend to be lower down back and up forward). I'm still satisfied that these players have a history of scoring at a level that would make them top scorers in their line, though. At a minimum, I'm comfortable that I'm not just chasing last year's points.

 

[Jordan]

my split is
top 5- 2
top 10-2
top 20-3
top 30-5
top 50-8
top 100-11
top 200-14