Analysis Engine Room

At this stage, how many Premiums will you have in your Midfield?


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Impromptu

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Essendon
#1
The 'Midfield' or the 'Engine Room' is probably the most important position in everyone's SuperCoach team.

The obvious reason is that traditionally our captain is usually selected from the midfield. Whether it be Ablett, Swan, Pendlebury, Watson or whoever our premium midfielders usally average an extra 10-20 points more than premiums in other positions (all things being equal). The exception to this is perhaps Deledio(DEF), Goddard(DEF), Beams(FWD) and Dangerfield(FWD), noting I have ignored their DPP attributes as you would normally use these players in the non-Midfield position.

However, while we expect our premium midfielders to score more than premiums in other positions, there is a cost to this. The cost is the additional price or the surcharge you pay for these premium midfielders.

Now to determine whether it is worthwhile to choose a premium midfielder (excluding the captain benefit) it really depends on whether you think the premium midfielder will score more than the alternative. The alternative to a premium midfielder is the score which a premium in another position produces, but don't forget in calculating the alternative, we must include the 'Loose Change'. Usually, when we talk about Loose Change it relates to 'Value Priced Players' ('VPPs'), which was discussed in the same article as selecting VPPs gives you the opportunity to use the Loose Change to benefit your team elsewhere.

Now first and foremost, I do NOT look for VPPs nor care about the Loose Change in the Engine Room because I believe the Midfield is in a league of its own. Now it doesn't mean that I will not get a Midfield VPPs that I intend to trade out.

Luke Ball could be a good Midfield VPP that is our initial team then is traded out, but notice the different between Luke Ball to a player I categorise as a VPP that I intend to keep as a premium (which is a NO-No!). Again, now for example only, although I believe Lenny Hayes was a good VPP in 2012, if I selected Hayes, then I would select him on the basis that I believe that Lenny Hayes would be in the top 6 or top 10 Midfielders (which was not the case). I prefer to select a rookie in the midfield and look for and select VPPs in other positions rather than VPPs in the midfield then upgrade to True Midfield Premiums.

As aforementioned, I do not look for VPPs in the midfield therefore the question is how should we structure our Midfield or 'Engine Room' in 2013?

Traditionally, we have 6 starting midfielders and 2 benchwarmer, however as you will be aware, in 2013 there will be 8 midfielders and 2 benchwarmers. I have been to-ing and fro-ing on the structure of my Engine Room for a while and it's a difficult decision as the Risk v Return scenario is substantial.

The following Midfield Analysis only includes True Premiums and does not take VPPs nor Loose Change into calculations as I do not look for these in Midfield, but only in other positions.

0 Premiums and 8 Rookies (with 2 SUB)

As most of you may know, I had an all rookie midfield in 2010 when I finished 724th overall. Please refer to the '8 Rookie Midfield' article for background information.

Now in 2010, the Midfield format was 6 MID 2 SUB and there were decent rookies, thus the reason I made the bold move. In 2013, with a Midfield format of 8 MID 2 SUB, I think it's too risky. I'm not saying I won't adopt this, Gulp!! but I think the Captain disadvantage is too much and 2 SUBs covering 8 positions is quite difficult.

1 Premium Midfield

This strategy, like the above is quite risky. If this is being considered by anyone :), then the natural selection of the one premium would be Gary Ablett for captain purposes.

2 Premium Midfield

Now this is getting a bit warmer, but possibly 1 or 2 premium/s too short.

If this is being considered by anyone, then possibly Gary Ablett and one of Swan, Pendles, Murphy, Cotchin etc

3 Premium Midfield

At this early pre-season, I'm leaning towards this structure of 3 Premiums, 5 Non-Premiums and 2 Benchwarmers.

It will be probably Ablett with Swan and/or Pendlebury with one other (depending if I pick both Swan/Pendles).

4 Premium Midfield

I'm guessing this will probably be the standard midfield, with Ablett, Cotchin, Selwood and Swan/Pendles/Beams/Murphy/Judd. Now the latter group will be determined by whether people are willing to take donuts as they all clash with Ablett in terms of the round 13 bye and only 2 can be on the bench at any give time to avoid the donut.

5 Premium Midfield

Now if you are considering a 5 Premium midfield, you should keep your left eye on their Bye Group to ensure you don't have unnecessary donuts. Now if you are happy to accept 1 donut then that's a different story and okay. However, you need to incorporate this in your analysis of which premium to pick.

For example only, if you already have 2 premiums with a round 13 Bye such as Ablett and Swan and you are deciding on Pendlebury (round 13) or Selwood (round 12), you need to deduct ~10ppg off Pendlebury in your analysis as Pendlebury has a round 13 bye, but Selwood doesn't.

6 Premium Midfield

I think this is on the opposite end of 2 Premiums and 6 Rookies, in that you may have one midfield too many. This option could mean you are one premium short.

7/8 Premium Midfield

I think this is probably too many premiums in the midfield as the extra surcharge will mean you may be short a few premiums across the whole team.

Summary

It's possibly a bit too early to decide, but at this stage, I'm leaning towards 3 premiums.

The reason is I see so many VPPs in other non-midfield positions, who actually play midfield. I prefer to use the Loose Change to have an extra premium in other positions. However, the fact that we now have 30 trades rather than 24 trades means we may be willing to have more premiums in the Midfield and then side trade.

The structure of the Engine Room will be very important in 2013 with the 8 MID 2 SUB format, so think carefully. Another thing to consider is that not only does an additional Premium Midfielder mean you can be short a premium in the team, but in order for this Premium Midfielder to maintain its value, it has to maintain a higher average.

What I tend to do with my initial team is play around with the team and do a 'What if' test such as reduce a premium midfielder to see if it could that mean I get 2 premiums in another position. However, with the 2013 Midfield format, I believe it's more important than other positions whether it be more premium midfielders or less.
 

hammo42

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Essendon
#3
Reading the How To Pick Your Team Analysis by Rowsus (brilliant work!) of previous winners, I was keen to load up on VPP's, including in the midfield where I'd just have the one premium. Jay's article (also brilliant work) has me considering otherwise. One reason for this is the rolling lockout during the early rounds where it would be beneficial to have at least two premiums for Captain Loophole purposes. You would expect the highest C and VC scores to come from the midfield, so at least 2 premiums are required here I think, with 3 giving some options for C and VC selections.
 
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Collingwood
#4
3 premiums in the mid sounds very light on for a starting team but totally agree there is no point having vpp's in the mid unless they are a strong chance of becoming Perminant premiums

If nab cup reveals 3-4 rookies averaging 90+ in the mid or fwd/mid you'd be laughing,
i would go the 3 mid structure every day of the week and twice on Sunday lol
 
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Carlton
#5
I'm a long way from deciding. Most likely 4 but could easily be 5 or 3....Lots to consider with VC and C issues plus I got some different approach to how the byes will have a different scoring set up this year and adjust my plans accordingly.
 
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#6
ATM I have 4 and count Mundy as one. I really believe he will begin where he left off in 2011 before the break.

Pendlebury, Gibbs/Goddard (one is in DEF) Murphy and Mundy
 
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Collingwood
#7
I'm a long way from deciding. Most likely 4 but could easily be 5 or 3....Lots to consider with VC and C issues plus I got some different approach to how the byes will have a different scoring set up this year and adjust my plans accordingly.
Yep not jumping on any structure just yet, made a couple of teams with different structures, added up there there averages bar rookies and had some surprising outcomes, obviously a rough estimate of what my teams structures may output in points, definantly not the deciding factor of what my team will look like, just trying to get maximum points for my dollar
 
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#8
With the extra two positions this year i was thinking of a 5/1/4 setup providing i can settle on a decent midpricer/VPP (if anyone can let me know 2013's Dangerfield i'll be very appreciative :) ) That and i think there's some outstanding mid rookies in Crouch, O'Meara and Viney who you just can't go past espeically considering they should be rookie priced.

I was also thinking of going for only a single defensive premium or none at all so i can put maximum money into the midfield, ruck and forward line, thoughts?
 
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Collingwood
#9
With the extra two positions this year i was thinking of a 5/1/4 setup providing i can settle on a decent midpricer/VPP (if anyone can let me know 2013's Dangerfield i'll be very appreciative :) ) That and i think there's some outstanding mid rookies in Crouch, O'Meara and Viney who you just can't go past espeically considering they should be rookie priced.

I was also thinking of going for only a single defensive premium or none at all so i can put maximum money into the midfield, ruck and forward line, thoughts?
good thing abpout this year there are a few defensive options that wont cost you over 500k that should score around the same as a 550+ defender should.

adcock grimes broughton hartlett to a lessor extent

team im playing around with at the moment ive got 4 prem backs 1 mid pricer, 5 prem mids, 1 prem ruck and burger, 4 prem fwds and gray, Lecrass.
only problem is my captain choice , this team has no ablett, pendles or franklin. obviously my first upgrade will be ablett when he drops in price.
i could downgrade my back mid pricer or gray up faward to a rookie but i think in ports current best 22 squad there's no reason why he cant achieve a 90+ average. if i do decide tro downgrade i can change fyfe to ablett or pendles
 
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Collingwood
#10
Thanks Jay... It seems that the midfield will be a fertile area of discussion selecting our teams, getting 8 players up will be a challenge each week as the year goes by. Three, four premium guns will be popular and rightly so. This is not the line to make a mistake. Personally, I favour 4 guns, one of them being a Dal Santo type, not necessarily him, bit like a Watson in 2012, then Ball/Embley then Rookies. Cant find a DPP mid/fwd rookie yet, wait for the preseason games I guess.
 
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WandP

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#11
Originally started with a 3 super premium (GAJ, Pendles, Cotchin) - 7 rookie sructure in the midfield with the view to have as many rookies as possible bubbling away early on as the MIDs tend to produce the best quality cash cows as we all know.

Digging a bit further, to me it looks like there's a bit of value and some promising rookies in this year's backline crop more than any other line. It's a bit hard to call so early without any pre season form but at this stage i've re-invested the loose change into an extra (speculative) MID premium.

Where is everyone else seeing the most value at this early stage?
 

IDIG

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Essendon
#12
Am i silly (i probably am) but determining my midfield set up around the number of good rookies i feel will score adequately as starters?

I'm thinking 4 minimum with a possible 5th if i can't see enough stable midfield rookie options.
 
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#14
I picked 3 in the Poll Question. Currently considering Ablett, Cotchin and Pendlebury
 

Goodie's Guns

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#15
Well Jay I cannot wait to get some time and have a proper look at this article, I reckon this will be handy to get an insight into your thinking.
 

Goodie's Guns

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#16
Seems like 4 or 5 premiums is the most popular midfield structure atm, three also has a few votes and love the guys going with a 7 premo mid.
 

Philzsay

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Essendon
#17
Am i silly (i probably am) but determining my midfield set up around the number of good rookies i feel will score adequately as starters?

I'm thinking 4 minimum with a possible 5th if i can't see enough stable midfield rookie options.
Not silly at all, the quality of the rookies and what position they are in ultmately determines the final makeup of my team.
 
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Collingwood
#18
Not silly at all, the quality of the rookies and what position they are in ultmately determines the final makeup of my team.
I too am having trouble getting my head around the midfield. It worries me that I need to get 8 up, particularly in the first third of the season. Part of me says get Ball Embley Wines Mayes types in there for JS the other part says get NDS S.Selwood K.Mitchell types. Don't know.
 
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Collingwood
#19
I've got 4 premiums and ball
I classify Mundy as one of those prems,
My minds telling me I'm 1 prem short
And relying on 2-3 rookies to give 85-100 output each
a lot of weighing up still to be done
 
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#20
Great article and welcome back Jay.

It is very early but i am not seeing a whole host of rookie options in the backs and forwards personally ... B.Goodes seems an early lock as a back. Others for these two positions are Colquhoun (d/m), Terlich (d/m), Osborne, Lee, Growden, Membrey, Dwyer (m - rookie) and then you get into your injury prone/job security worries of Staker/McCaffer ... While that seems like a lot i don't feel many or any of these guys will average much more then 50-60 and all will take some time to rise in value compared to midfield rookies.

This is making me think of loading my backs especially as i think this will be the hardest to fill ... lots of good options in the forwards now with the likes of Ryder, Cox, NicNac, Roughead all being DPP ...

In the midfield there seems to be an abundance of good rookies as usual ... K.Mitchell, O'Meara, Crouch, Viney, Hirovat, Jones to name a few ... I think Ablett and Swan need to be locks as they just plain hurt you if you don't have them ... then for mine the next best are Pendles, Dangerfield and Cotchin. Would love to pick all 5 but that just leaves a massive hold in your forwards and backs.

I agree when you imply about not going for the likes of Mundy, Ball etc ... at least not as keepers.

Long time to go but i will have 3 premiums for sure and possible 4 if i can live with Bock and a rookie as my 5th defender and forward (assuming he is fit of course.)
 
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