Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

Joined
24 Feb 2020
Messages
4,903
Likes
13,355
AFL Club
Collingwood
Joined
9 Dec 2020
Messages
2,371
Likes
12,065
AFL Club
Essendon
I would argue that many of these speculative breakout guys are successfully making the transition to true premiums though.

Look at Sicily, Hewett, Cripps, Brodie & Coniglio in 2022 - all discounted speculative options that successfully transitioned to top line premiums that year and put everyone that got them before price changes ahead of the pack. We also saw it last year to a lesser degree with Gulden, Ziebell etc.

The extra trades also allow you to take a punt on more midpricers - Hopper, Worpel, Setterfield and Sheed were all successful stepping stone options last season that made enough cash to be good cash cows whilst outscoring rookie priced options in the early rounds. Curnow, Witts etc. did the same in 2022.

You could finish a team with 20 trades when this game started in 2006 - 40 trades now is plenty to work with...
For every success story there are plenty that don’t work out and leave you burned. But regardless, my point isn’t that speculative picks don’t work, it’s that too many is crazy given more fail than succeed and it can create a logjam in your side that is hard to correct.
More trades doesn’t mean unlimited flexibility, as I’ve said you can only use so many at once and it’s at a time where there is often better uses for them.
Additionally, they don’t just need to work as a stepping stone they also need to work at the right time. It’s never as simple as everything lining up perfect to trade them out in sequence or at peak.

But my overall point remains the same, starting very few keepers is asking for trouble as you basically need to nail majority successful break out players or you’re just committing too many trades ahead of time.
 
Joined
24 Mar 2015
Messages
4,154
Likes
14,751
AFL Club
North Melb.
My mates and I are about to start a new keeper league. I have pick 3. Pick 1 will be Daicos, Pick 2 a raffle but I am seriously considering drafting Jordan Dawson at #3 overall regardless of who is available. Am I nuts?
How many in the league? And how many on the field?

Depending on how much you value this year's glory vs setting you up for the future I'd probably pitch for a) someone younger (Butters/Brayshaw/Serong/Green maybe? Dawson is 27 this year) or b) a (comparatively youngish) ruck like English or Darcy.

Or pick Sheezel and you'll be laughing for years :cool:
 
Top