Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

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Saints - Solid enough from them. Cashed in on the wind, cashed in on NM not trying in Q1 when they had it. Serious issues stopping the Kangas when they got a run on in the 3rd though and they remain a team that I think is going to have to overachieve significantly again if they're to play finals. To me they're a bottom 6 list so Lyon has a real challenge. Even more so than North, their injuries make all of this a nightmare. Sinclair, Crouch, Windhager, Butler and Clark is probably the 5 names I'd pick to remove if I wanted to make analysing their team impossible, basically all the swingmen and lynchpin types...

Byrnes - Played HB/Wing in first half, went onto the ball in the 2nd half after Phillipou pulled up stumps. He's a tryer, a guy you want in that 20-28 spot on the list.

Bonner - Great role off HB. Example one of the Windhager/Sinclair/Clark (WSM) group making things impossible. He played so well he's there round 1 and Webster further aided (perhaps hinders in role though) the JS. He's at an awfully tempting price for what he could produce, mid only but he's always scored well at Port when playing HB. Plenty of mid options already but he's got 150k in him with a good run.

Owens - Similar role to last year. Sneaky good option after another preseason given how hard he faded last year that can only help. Be a gutsy pick but he's probably in the best few forward options after byes and injuries are factored in. Didn't really do anything special today and yet, 90 is on the board.

Marshall - Smashed in the ruck, couple of blood rules hurt his TOG a bit, still scored solidly. He's a known quantity. Durability is his issue and if it doesn't flare up he's in the top tier of rucks. So good around the ground.

NWM - It felt like he was far more prolific than his actual scores. Another pure WSM question, he's obviously in the best 22 but where are the others playing and how much will they impact his targeting. He's still a really sneaky premium option, especially if Sinclair with the dreaded calf were to miss substantial time, fwiw Sinclair spoke at I think it was 3QT and it sure sounded like r3 was the likely return date.

Wilson - The big takeaway for me in this game. Lock him in if you hadn't already. Elite runner that actually uses it to get to the right places. I dare say he'll have several tackles a game in the real stuff although 10 marks is definitely on the very, very high end of expectations. Played a pure HF role and just works to contests, puts fantastic pressure at ground level, just a whirlwind of a player. Similar physically to Max Holmes only seems to have traded a step of pace (and only a step) for elite endurance to keep doing it over and over. I'm not sold you want to field him as similar to Duursma, his role isn't great in a side that I personally don't think is very good, but he's an excellent bench rookie to potential starter level. This will probably be his top score this season but wouldn't shock me if it wasn't given the workrate that flashed.

Steele - Not as motiony as LDU but pretty motiony also, which makes the score all the more impressive. Most importantly, tape free and moving well. He was already on every radar and don't think he's done that any harm. Lot of value potentially here. I don't love not having Crouch there though as I still think he's lowkey the achilles heel to Steele's scoring, he just snipes enough touches/tackles/etc to lower the floor consistently. His body has been the bigger issue but I don't love that factor.

Schoenmaker - Solid game, playing mostly as a floating defender he did some nice things. The Howard injury definitely opens a door for him albeit in a more lockdown role. I think he's got much better scoring potential than the Reid/Pink types but the JS would be shaky at best, albeit if he can play well enough his kicking is a huge asset over the Howard option who is a liability with the ball. Webster suspension length could also come in to play. Of course the WSM part is also a question.

Henry - Played pure HF. Not fantasy relevant in that role I don't think.

Ross - I don't know who he has pictures of but pure midfield role continues. His AFL career has continued for a solid 4 years longer than it should have. Looks like he will continue to eat a prime fantasy role while not really doing anything at an AFL level. He'd be a really solid VFL depth guy but the fact he's in their starting midfield rotation is just a wow factor.

Wilkie - Such a good player.

Wood - Pure wing. Same as last year.

Stocker - Played HB, feels like he's well behind Bonner and NWM and would be one of the first out for Sinclair.

Phillipou - Love to know why he didn't play the 2nd half, didn't hear anything in the broadcast, but he had an ideal role (pure midfield) and was playing fantastic. Might be a blessing in disguise for the suckers like me that are very strongly considering him as most will exit stage right, now. I thought he was brilliant. The Bont comparison's really are hard to ignore with him the way he combines an extreme left foot with excellent clearance work. Just looked bigger, stronger and more composed and he did that score without really using it all that well, which isn't an area I'm concerned about with him. This is the one where the Crouch, Windhager, Sinclair and Clark questions all come in. He's considerably more talented than all of them except maybe Sinclair but will they get the role ahead of him because he can play elsewhere or do they just go with the best guy and deal with it. I know what I'd do but him only playing a half raises the "we've seen enough, ice him" or "he's not playing there anyway, lets run some others" question. He'd be a really gutsy pick but I reckon he's the highest upside player under 300k in the forwards (except for maybe Sexton who is a total lock anyway). If he got the role, he can go 100+ in it, such is his talent level. God this is a lot for a 42 :LOL:

Garcia - I really liked his game. Nice left boot on him, goes hard at it. Feels like he gets pushed out by all the guys missing first of all, but could be a decent mid season target if he breaks in. There's much safer options even if there round 1, imo. Textbook 7th mid playing as the 5th mid because a couple of guys are missing but showed plenty and looks to have a future.

Howard - Did a hamstring very late, looked the classic 2-4 type.

Webster - Will have a nice holiday for a late bump. Would guess it's a 4+ type. Picking a guy with a bad concussion history just makes it even stupider as the consequences are just elevated.

King - Did some nice things, no where near enough effort level to consider for fantasy purposes. So much talent, I wonder if he's ever going to start to try and extract it.

Collard - Pure forward pocket, terrible role, very punchable head as well. Did very little in a half. Wouldn't expect to see him early on and wouldn't expect him to score well even if we do. Let it go through to the keeper, there's better options.
hip for Phillipou

View: https://twitter.com/aflratings_Live/status/1764149372881940641
 
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I feel like judging the rebounding half back Zac Fisher via the, admittedly, very flaky forward Zac Fisher is a bad move.

No different to the likes of Ziebell, Baker, Houli (perhaps the best like for like), Lloyd, Coleman and oh so many others who don't score very well in other positions but that one perfectly suits them.

I get it, he was a squib at Carlton but he's had two 95+ games in the role for them last year and goes to a team that will see a LOT of ball down back and has produced in the first hitout.

Also, the forwards are so bloody awful this year.

Also, why not Fyfe and Fisher as F1 and F2 ;) What kind of hamstring related calf injury could possibly go wrong?
I agree, but I also think it's a hard role to assess in the pre-season the way games are played. Little contested ball, open games and free flowing which is why we always see these types of roles/players do well, wingers and seagulls. Happens every year, the inside contested bulls of SC score low and the seagulls always get big pre-season numbers.

It's just a matter of now seeing which can continue the scoring into the season.
 
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I feel like judging the rebounding half back Zac Fisher via the, admittedly, very flaky forward Zac Fisher is a bad move.

No different to the likes of Ziebell, Baker, Houli (perhaps the best like for like), Lloyd, Coleman and oh so many others who don't score very well in other positions but that one perfectly suits them.

I get it, he was a squib at Carlton but he's had two 95+ games in the role for them last year and goes to a team that will see a LOT of ball down back and has produced in the first hitout.

Also, the forwards are so bloody awful this year.

Also, why not Fyfe and Fisher as F1 and F2 ;) What kind of hamstring related calf injury could possibly go wrong?
YES!!! HIS BACK!
 
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So I watched a game...
Excellent, as this was the only one I haven't been able to watch this pre-season :LOL:

Great write up! (y)

Have to say, seeing the fantasy scores gave me a shock. Probably not on the Saints side (had Wilson, knew Bonner was a stud without Sinclair, but still no Sinclair) but definitely on the North side. You've eased my stress on McKercher, but I rate Fisher a lot so was always concerned that Fisher would seagull better than McKercher/Sheezel. Also surprised Scott was in the backline, but I think I read pre-season that was the plan. Does seem a waste to have him there with Fisher/McKercher/Sheezel.
 
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Excellent, as this was the only one I haven't been able to watch this pre-season :LOL:

Great write up! (y)

Have to say, seeing the fantasy scores gave me a shock. Probably not on the Saints side (had Wilson, knew Bonner was a stud without Sinclair, but still no Sinclair) but definitely on the North side. You've eased my stress on McKercher, but I rate Fisher a lot so was always concerned that Fisher would seagull better than McKercher/Sheezel. Also surprised Scott was in the backline, but I think I read pre-season that was the plan. Does seem a waste to have him there with Fisher/McKercher/Sheezel.
Scott probably there to defend, he's not a great ball user but he is the consummate team man so can do that role well, I'd still rather him than Tucker on the wing if I was North.

Think there's enough ball to go around, albeit I'd say McKercher is more Heppell as a rookie target than Sheezel/Daicos just as a result. He needs like 70+ with a few spike games, be surprised if he's not a fair bit better than that. Sheezel definitely could graduate to the midfield like Daicos did last year as well, especially if McKercher shows he can cover it. Long term Sheezel should be their best mid (and I love LDU) and it the transition probably starts this season.
 
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That's why we all watch the pre-season, nothing out of the ordinary tbh
Guy on just about everyone's radar has huge game.

Was tinkering myself and came to a conclusion that I've never really gone into a season thinking (in this format) but picking "keepers" has become a much less important exercise. Traditionally I've hated having 5 keeper picks on a line because you pigeon hole yourself into them. This year I'm going to look at it more that the point of the boosts and the extra trades is to transition from borderline keepers to genuine keepers.

For example, historically I probably wouldn't take a Coleman type pick as I think he averages 90-100, which would be sub-par at D6 but with so many extra trade opportunities and the DPP influxes, I actually think they've made that type of pick viable where you get significant value, on field scoring but aren't trapped with a subpar scorer that gives the hot start back in the last 8 rounds.

I still think that drawing it at about 3-4 of those types is the maximum before we go midprice madness but I will be budgeting for them and think they're pickable.

The DPP changes further compound on this where guys like an Amon, Martin or Holmes definitely do come into the arena. I don't actually think any are SC keepers, think they'll all be in the same range as Coleman, but the value, then stepping across to be viable D6 for a while before we can pick the winners with trades. My only issue with that particular trio is I'm finding it hard to pick them over the rookie crop who are inherently even better value.

Basically, I think for the first time (or perhaps 2nd after last year) targeting sub D6/F6/M8 value picks is actually a genuine tactic because we've got the trade mechanics to o***et it. Just a shame how many of those options seem to be in the mids this year!
 
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So how risky is this do people think with Fisher in the forward line. You'd be banking both Holmes and Martin get Def status early but in their new roles can we see them average 105+

View attachment 68586
Where are you hiding Hustwaite? :p

Get him on field at M8 and you'll have the cash to take Martin and one of Miller/Newcombe up to super-premos anywhere you want.
 
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Where are you hiding Hustwaite? :p

Get him on field at M8 and you'll have the cash to take Martin and one of Miller/Newcombe up to super-premos anywhere you want.
Hawks supporters I've seen don't have Hustwaite locked into the R1 team. May potentially be a sub. I was surprised because of how well he's gone in pre-season but I guess their midfield does have a few names to fit in (Newcombe, Nash, Worpel, Ward, Mackenzie, Maginness (if he tags)).
 
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I agree, but I also think it's a hard role to assess in the pre-season the way games are played. Little contested ball, open games and free flowing which is why we always see these types of roles/players do well, wingers and seagulls. Happens every year, the inside contested bulls of SC score low and the seagulls always get big pre-season numbers.

It's just a matter of now seeing which can continue the scoring into the season.
I reckon just based off pure volume in their back half that he’ll score at a decent enough level for it to not feel like a horrible pick. If he was on the watch list before, he couldn’t have done much more than he’s done to stick his hand up for that F1 spot.

The forwards are so crappy to start this year that almost any player you can pick there who is not actually playing as a forward gives them a huge chance to match or exceed the rest.
 
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Where are you hiding Hustwaite? :p

Get him on field at M8 and you'll have the cash to take Martin and one of Miller/Newcombe up to super-premos anywhere you want.
There's a lot of talk about Hustwaite missing the best 22 Hawks or Sub at best. Most think they can only play 2 of Hustwaite, McKenzie and Ward. I'll keep watching for sure.
 
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So how risky is this do people think with Fisher in the forward line. You'd be banking both Holmes and Martin get Def status early but in their new roles can we see them average 105+

View attachment 68586
See post above :LOL: I don't even think they need the DPP change if the value is there as can trade.

I like Martin more but I don't think 105+ is very likely. Ridley will miss a bit but Redman, McGrath and, I assume, Heppell is still a lot of sharing and neither of them do any kind of real intercept work to top up, would need to get seriously prolific and that's where having the Duncan/Stewart and Redman/Ridley/McGrath groups makes that pretty hard.

Martin wouldn't shock me as he is a little pig but Holmes would. I think Holmes is more likely 90-95 range as his high end target, expect more of a Blakey, Saad or Rioli type from him, think he'll do too much damage for teams to let him run wild as well. Martin high end is probably 105-110 but I would expect 95-100 is a more likely spot. That high end does make him very worth the punt though, if low end D6 is the reasonable target and genuine D4 is the high end, that's a strong option at value.

Definitely a very interesting group of options.
 
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So how risky is this do people think with Fisher in the forward line. You'd be banking both Holmes and Martin get Def status early but in their new roles can we see them average 105+

View attachment 68586
What does your def look like? Locking away 2 spots for blokes you hope get DPP AND breakout to 100+ could shut you out of some of the big boys who’ll undoubtedly separate themselves from the pack.
 
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