Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Courtesans]

All I can say is '40 trades'

Yep. No way I would consider Jordan and Fisher otherwise.

 

[Under The Dome]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764919325796806869

View: https://twitter.com/aflratingsPete/status/1764919325796806869

If Nank misses then Naismith comes in to play for R1 if you take a R/F ruck with him. Playing first up in R1 helps on the selection and to see the score.

 

[xanderdom]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764919325796806869

View: https://twitter.com/aflratingsPete/status/1764919325796806869

Far out, without Darcy it's extremely hard to ignore Jackson F1 now..

Surely a minimum 1-2 week return, I just don't foresee Freo rushing him back so early in a new season.

 

[OnTopBar]

Far out, without Darcy it's extremely hard to ignore Jackson F1 now..

Surely a minimum 1-2 week return, I just don't foresee Freo rushing him back so early in a new season.

Is 1-2 weeks enough though?

 

[Rowsus]

Already had Darcy at R1, and Jackson at F1.
Rucks are doing my head in, and we haven't even started yet!

 

[Miller is a Steele]

For those bold enough, Jackson solo rucking could provide cover for Naismith at R2

Would like to see a timeline on Darcy before I consider anything like that though.

 

[OnTopBar]

If Nank misses then Naismith comes in to play for R1 if you take a R/F ruck with him. Playing first up in R1 helps on the selection and to see the score.

If Nank was out for 4-5 games then I'd be all over this, possibly worth waiting until he's on the bubble, don't want another Constable

 

[Under The Dome]

If Nank was out for 4-5 games then I'd be all over this, possibly worth waiting until he's on the bubble, don't want another Constable

I'd have Jackson as my R2 if I went down that road. He would only go to the forward line if Naismith scored well.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Picked up Jackson in SC Draft last night so that’s a plus.

Was locked at F1 in Classic too so a little bit disappointed that every man and their dog will be getting on board now..

 

[xanderdom]

Is 1-2 weeks enough though?

Not at all I don't think, but what are the chances his minutes are managed upon return?

Remember, Jackson averaged 87 points a game in 2023 when Darcy played and 119 when he didn't. That's very significant.

But I don't want to toss up too much of a fit over a knee injury with an undisclosed timetable for Darcy's return.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Fair bit of chat lately on the merits of starting MP's and I'd like to offer my thoughts, beit as they may.

I'll just use Crouch as an example. I'm starting him with the intent of trading him out before his rnd 15 bye, he's my M5 and priced at 88, I'd be happy with a 95-100 from that position. He's $160k cheaper than a premo mid and I can use those funds to 'upgrade' my 30th player to another MP and hopefully earn around 30 more PPG from that position, those funds could also be used to upgrade a Steele to a Bont.

The reason I'd be happy with 95-100 is that when I trade him out (hopefully one of my last upgrades) then I'll effectively have a position in the mids that is not exposed to any byes, particularly if I upgrade to an Oliver type coming off his 2 byes and this is where I'm finding the value. The 2 bye cost is around 100pts, more if that player is the 2nd or 3rd player on each of his 2 byes. That 100pts equates to 6-7PPG over the early part of the season, effectively raising Crouch's output to 101-107. The added bonus is just a 2 trade cost to get Clarry in where the normal cost could well be 3 trades.

Now if, and of course it's a big 'if', if I apply that rationale to 3 other positions then I could well be 400pts better off than those starting premos that'll have 2 byes. To me it's just another form of upgrading. There was a stat from 2 years ago showing that more MP's than rookies made the $150k that we all hope for. Not forgetting the upgrading of my 29th-27th rookie which should generate substantial point gains as well as having those players with better JS thus (hopefully) avoiding the dreaded sub vest.

I've more than likely made some assumptions that are NQR and probably placing too much hope on getting the MP's right, however with all the info out there I'm reasonably comfortable starting my chosen MP's.

The extra byes and extra trades have thrown up a completely different landscape to the game compared to what it was even last year.

Let's say your 30th player is $123k, that's only ~$280k so you're not getting another 30 more ppg out of that on-field and if you are, please share. Maybe with a Billings, Harmes, Fyfe, Jordan but a bit to play out wth them and your 30th player won't be scored, it would be your 22nd player for onfield points. Your post sort of makes it sound like you can grab another Crouch type like Holmes or Martin but that's still not the case.

 

[Under The Dome]

Let's say your 30th player is $123k, that's only ~$280k so you're not getting another 30 more ppg out of that and if you are, please share. Maybe with a Billings, Harmes, Fyfe but a bit to play out wth them.

60 point rookie to a 90 point MP. There are some out there that will reach that.

 

[OnTopBar]

Not at all I don't think, but what are the chances his minutes are managed upon return?

Remember, Jackson averaged 87 points a game in 2023 when Darcy played and 119 when he didn't. That's very significant.

But I don't want to toss up too much of a fit over a knee injury with an undisclosed timetable for Darcy's return.

Knee jerk?

 

[Manikato1]

This is what I'm struggling with. Petracca's career-best season came with him attending just 61% CBAs in a mid/fwd role, with his clearances, disposals, uncontested possessions, tackles and inside 50s down on his 2021 numbers (when he averaged 111.4), and this is with Oliver missing half the season.

If Oliver is underdone to start 2024, does that help or hinder Petracca? With Brayshaw now retired, does that help or hinder Petracca? I don't know if a simple "in the guts therefore more midfield minutes therefore SC upside" equation necessarily applies without caveats in the case of Petracca who scores so well beasting forward of centre. It didn't help that he cruised through his Community Series match without doing anything of note.

The Demons midfield dynamic feels like it's in a state of flux so I feel there's a lot of uncertainty there, which doesn't help in o***etting the shortfall in Rd 6 versus those who plump for a non Rd 0 player in that spot (Butters/Dawson/Serong/LDU).

This is where stats don't lie but are misleading. Raw stats like clearances, disposals etc don't mean much in SC scoring. I think what matters is how effective the disposal was, where it was and how it affected play. Depending on circumstances a kick from a clearance that goes 45m to the inside 50 might score nothing in SC if it is to open space or the opposition gets it. But it would register as a disposal, clearance and an inside 50 for the stats man. We have never had a clear explanation of how SC scoring works, just some very basic explanations of simple scenarios such as an effective kick or a goal assist. That guy Jaiden Popowski did some work on SC scoring and he maybe is as close to explaining how scoring works as anyone. If Petracca had fewer raw stats but his involvement was much more effective and in the right part of the ground he could score more in SC than in a year with better raw stats but with less effectiveness. A CBA is just a place where you get a better opportunity to do something that allows you to score.

Just my 2c worth.

 

[Montyjnr]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764919325796806869

View: https://twitter.com/aflratingsPete/status/1764919325796806869

Oh wow I already had Jack Macrae in my side who I wasn’t really comfortable with.

This is an easy swap at a similar price 👍

 

[OnTopBar]

Let's say your 30th player is $123k, that's only ~$280k so you're not getting another 30 more ppg out of that on-field and if you are, please share. Maybe with a Billings, Harmes, Fyfe, Jordan but a bit to play out wth them and your 30th player won't be scored, it would be your 22nd player for onfield points. Your post sort of makes it sound like you can grab another Crouch type like Holmes or Martin but that's still not the case.

Well you mentioned 4 there, Williams is also a consideration. It's sort of not the point though, that $160k could be spread over 3 rookies with better JS, if I have 4 MP's then that gives the option of another Wines, Holmes or Martin as well as the aforementioned players, well 2 of them.

There's a lot of ifs, buts and maybes but the extra byes and extra trades do throw up more possibilities.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Again, mid-pricers are only worth the money if you pick the right ones. There's 7 or 8 names there and history says they're all not going to be 90+ players.

 

[jobeywatto]

Was locked at F1 in Classic too so a little bit disappointed that every man and their dog will be getting on board now..

What made you lock him in even before Darcy's injury? Hasn't really been a consideration for me.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Is having 4 rookies on field in the midfield to much?
Mckercher, Sanders, Hustwaite and Roberts...

 

[Feerits Elf]

This is where stats don't lie but are misleading. Raw stats like clearances, disposals etc don't mean much in SC scoring. I think what matters is how effective the disposal was, where it was and how it affected play. Depending on circumstances a kick from a clearance that goes 45m to the inside 50 might score nothing in SC if it is to open space or the opposition gets it. But it would register as a disposal, clearance and an inside 50 for the stats man. We have never had a clear explanation of how SC scoring works, just some very basic explanations of simple scenarios such as an effective kick or a goal assist. That guy Jaiden Popowski did some work on SC scoring and he maybe is as close to explaining how scoring works as anyone. If Petracca had fewer raw stats but his involvement was much more effective and in the right part of the ground he could score more in SC than in a year with better raw stats but with less effectiveness. A CBA is just a place where you get a better opportunity to do something that allows you to score.

Just my 2c worth.

That's what I'm getting at though. Raw stats aside, Petracca's better SC scoring year was when he was playing (relative to the worse SC scoring year) away from the place where one would expect he would have a better opportunity to do something that allows him to score.