Opinion 2024 AFL SuperCoach Planning Thread

[Blue Bloods]

I agree and is something I've been cautious of. I liked Flanders game and as a forward and cheaper price I think I'll go that way and let Miller go, also allows me to take Green in the mids and I think I'm more comfortable on him this season than Miller.

Can't have everyone right

I have gone the other way, both have the same bye. Miller underpriced, value and cheaper. Green fair price maybe unders, Probably score similar but one is $100K cheaper. Green against WCE and North does scary me a bit but it is a long season.

Both still a consideration but three out will hurt.

 

[Darkie]

One thing that I was thinking about earlier, and wanted to flag …

For those coaches basing decisions heavily upon bye considerations, maybe just have a look at historical game counts for the players that you are selecting.

It seems like in some cases, players have become more popular because they don’t have an early bye, meaning that you don’t have to field a rookie in their place in those rounds. All else equal, that makes sense …

… but it makes less sense if you’re instead picking a player who is likely to miss games through the season, due to injury or suspension.

That could be 3, 5 or more rookie scores that you end up fielding across the season, to avoid fielding 1 in a bye round (and the best 18 rules reduce the downside of fielding the rookie in a bye round in any case).

 

[Blue Bloods]

One thing that I was thinking about earlier, and wanted to flag …

For those coaches basing decisions heavily upon bye considerations, maybe just have a look at historical game counts for the players that you are selecting.

It seems like in some cases, players have become more popular because they don’t have an early bye, meaning that you don’t have to field a rookie in their place in those rounds. All else equal, that makes sense …

… but it makes less sense if you’re instead picking a player who is likely to miss games through the season, due to injury or suspension.

That could be 3, 5 or more rookie scores that you end up fielding across the season, to avoid fielding 1 in a bye round (and the best 18 rules reduce the downside of fielding the rookie in a bye round in any case).

Very hard to predict injury and suspension (a history would already be factored in) and the guy with the bye could just as easily be the injured one. But easy to see who misses the bye.

Thinking one premium missing is fine, two probably okay but three missing the same bye is pushing it.

 

[Darkie]

Very hard to predict injury and suspension (a history would already be factored in) and the guy with the bye could just as easily be the injured one. But easy to see who misses the bye.

Thinking one premium missing is fine, two probably okay but three missing the same bye is pushing it.

I think it’s hard to predict the specific injuries, timing or the like, but identifying the durable/reliable players is one of the easier and historically more important parts of the game from my perspective. In-game injuries are factored into price, but typically game count is not (unless it was extremely low), which makes it a bit of a free lunch.

It is still possible to be blindsided by a player with a good record of getting on the park - Oliver’s last season comes to mind! - but at a squad level, I don’t think it’s overly difficult to reduce your game count risk pretty substantially if it’s something you’re focused on.

 

[THCLT]

I think volume is another area. Some mids take a while to find a high volume of ball, he averaged 21 disposals last year, and with some growth and improvement could jump to 25+ which would see a big scoring increase.
In JPKs first season with over 7 clearances a game, he had 22 disposals a game, for a 96 average. His clearances went up to 7.5, his disposals to 28 (mostly extra handballs), and he averaged 120.

A bit late on this but anyways...
Including his game last weekend, he's had a total of 10 games with 25+ disposals (only 3 times over 30 and all at 33) at an average of 139.5!
If he could add goal kicking to his kit then he could be anything.
Let's not forget his start to his AFL (and SC) career, cruised to an average of 126.5 in his opening 4 games (what a cash cow) prior to being curtailed with a season ending injury.
Has had a clean run at it for 2.5 seasons now and is my smoky pick to remind everyone why he was the #1 pick from 2019.

 

[dylan123]

Was pretty keen to have a crack at Rankine in SC this year as I suspect he'll have a pretty strong year but with the amount of value going around, the risk doesn't really seem worth it unfortunately.

Not sure I recall playing a season where there's been this much 'potential' value with a strong rookie class to pair with it.

 

[Gruffles]

How come a lot of teams are going S. Berry now?

 

[Shaunpro1]

How come a lot of teams are going S. Berry now?

Is a pick I just dont understand, got a decent run at it in the 2nd half with Rankine taken off the ground and Dawson and Crouch managed minutes but thats not going to happen in season, 2022 was 86 with 66% CBAs, if he gets say 20% which I think is a realistic sort of number I dont see how the scoring is going to be there.

 

[Manikato1]

Just a reminder when finalising your teams this week for the start of the "real" season. Make sure you designate your emergencies. Easy when teams drop to tweak or move rookies on the bench and in the rush forget to E the one you want. Been there, done that.

 

[Feerits Elf]

Just a reminder when finalising your teams this week for the start of the "real" season. Make sure you designate your emergencies. Easy when teams drop to tweak or move rookies on the bench and in the rush forget to E the one you want. Been there, done that.

Well said.

Also don't inadvertently "optimise" your team - it moves players around based on DPP, sets new emergencies etc.

 

[freowho]

Was pretty keen to have a crack at Rankine in SC this year as I suspect he'll have a pretty strong year but with the amount of value going around, the risk doesn't really seem worth it unfortunately.

Not sure I recall playing a season where there's been this much 'potential' value with a strong rookie class to pair with it.

It's cruel. Almost every year we're struggling to find playing rookies. Plus with 40 trades and 4 early best 18 rounds they aren't needed as much.
We should be able to bank some for the next lean year. Or maybe later in the season.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

When do the ownership numbers for Rd 0 players move off what they were when those players' Rd 0 games started? Would have thought it would be shortly after the conclusion of GWS v Collingwood.

Unnerving seeing Heeney at 2.7%

maybe they cannot update the system duebto round 0 players having played. Without updating the code, hence rhe reason they didnt include round 0 in scoring, maybe they will not be able to.

Maybe a good thing for the hardline coaches as beginners cannot look at ownership to be index aware for their the opening team.

 

[Woodsey]

Structure question: Who do you currently have at:

D4
M6
R3
F4

Just interested in gauging depth by line

Massimo D
Wardlaw
Naismith
Reid

Bit of a change in two weeks!

D4: Williams
M6: Reid (F/M)
R3: Naismith
F4: Fisher

 

[mwross91]

Structure question: Who do you currently have at:

D4
M6
R3
F4

Just interested in gauging depth by line

D4: Young
M6: Mckercher
R3: Livingstone
F4: Jordon

 

[gutsroy]

Bit of a change in two weeks!

D4: Williams
M6: Reid (F/M)
R3: Naismith
F4: Fisher

The Heeney, Flanders, Fisher, T Green, Williams, Daicos, J Lyons,... performances have resulted in all sorts of shifting currents, think we are all in the same boat.

 

[warewolves]

Am I correct in understanding that players from 6 of the 8 opening round teams are on the bubble going into R2?
if so we have a bit more scope to explore correction trades this season.. more trades and more bites at the bubble boys.
Most of the favoured rookies didn’t play in OR though.
I might keep a bit more 💰 this year, so I have more flexibility around those early trades

 

[Uncle Drew]

Is a pick I just dont understand, got a decent run at it in the 2nd half with Rankine taken off the ground and Dawson and Crouch managed minutes but thats not going to happen in season, 2022 was 86 with 66% CBAs, if he gets say 20% which I think is a realistic sort of number I dont see how the scoring is going to be there.

Are you saying he wasn't any good in the first half or just didn't get the CBAs? Because I watched the game and he was close to best on at half time. Your point about getting less opportunity in the real stuff is completely valid, and he also was probably playing for a spot so was clearly trying harder than the regulars. I just want to clarify because he was brilliant in the first half as a half fwd pushing up to stoppages.

 

[Manikato1]

Am I correct in understanding that players from 6 of the 8 opening round teams are on the bubble going into R2?
if so we have a bit more scope to explore correction trades this season.. more trades and more bites at the bubble boys.
Most of the favoured rookies didn’t play in OR though.
I might keep a bit more 💰 this year, so I have more flexibility around those early trades

You are correct. Also there might be opportunity for an earlier upgrade as Melb/Rich rookies going into Rd 6 will have already played 6 games and could be ready to be cashed in if needed.

 

[dylan123]

Are you saying he wasn't any good in the first half or just didn't get the CBAs? Because I watched the game and he was close to best on at half time. Your point about getting less opportunity in the real stuff is completely valid, and he also was probably playing for a spot so was clearly trying harder than the regulars. I just want to clarify because he was brilliant in the first half as a half fwd pushing up to stoppages.

Beat me to it.

Most disposals for the game came in the first quarter when all our mids were playing and he also had 2 goals (3 scoring shots) to half time.

Again, the price for gain compared to others makes it a tough sell but it's not like he waited for guys to come off in the second half to get involved.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

The horror 😱

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1767418469220577560

View: https://twitter.com/aflratings/status/1767418469220577560