Discussion The Round 0 Knee Jerk
- Thread starter Rowsus
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If I knee-jerked to bring Heeney in, then am about to knee-jerk him out again, have I jerked both knees or am I just going in circles? 
Heeney/Lyons/Berry and some others basically fighting for two spots, probably dependant on team sheets.
Latest iteration (probably the least rash) is... keep Heeney to see at least two more games. He gets a price rise; we get more data on someone like Lyons and can correct if needed to Lyons on the bubble or just keep a 'keeper'. Ditto Berry if the role is there, possibly both with the cash.
Heeney/Lyons/Berry and some others basically fighting for two spots, probably dependant on team sheets.
Latest iteration (probably the least rash) is... keep Heeney to see at least two more games. He gets a price rise; we get more data on someone like Lyons and can correct if needed to Lyons on the bubble or just keep a 'keeper'. Ditto Berry if the role is there, possibly both with the cash.
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At this stage I’m going to fill one spot with a player in that $250K price range.
Jordon looks a really solid pick, a decent score from R0 and no obvious down-side.
T. Dow has dropped out of consideration, but Lyons and Bonner (maybe Harmes) are still interesting.
I’m starting Jordon and will re-assess going into R3 - Jordon will/should have had a price rise then, before the others.
If one of them looks clearly ahead of Jordon, I can easily flip.
I also have about $100K in the kitty, if I want 2 of them, that should also be manageable.
Best case is Jordon is a standout and the others 👎👎
Jordon looks a really solid pick, a decent score from R0 and no obvious down-side.
T. Dow has dropped out of consideration, but Lyons and Bonner (maybe Harmes) are still interesting.
I’m starting Jordon and will re-assess going into R3 - Jordon will/should have had a price rise then, before the others.
If one of them looks clearly ahead of Jordon, I can easily flip.
I also have about $100K in the kitty, if I want 2 of them, that should also be manageable.
Best case is Jordon is a standout and the others 👎👎
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I'm not sold on either Heeney or Jackson. Both look like they could turn into sugar hit list cloggers. The way the season is setting up with Swans midfielders out early rounds and Shrek out for four weeks just reeks of it.
Will probably give out some decent scores to start with and revert back to 80/85 afterwards and need trading.
Which is ok if you don't mind burning a couple of trades and have planned for that, in fact you could get a decent boost, but I'm preferring to play the percentages by using the extra trades to maybe cull a rookie or two slightly early to fit my post bye trading strategy for double bye premiums and be ruthless with midpricers if need be.
Everyone's plans are different though.
Will probably give out some decent scores to start with and revert back to 80/85 afterwards and need trading.
Which is ok if you don't mind burning a couple of trades and have planned for that, in fact you could get a decent boost, but I'm preferring to play the percentages by using the extra trades to maybe cull a rookie or two slightly early to fit my post bye trading strategy for double bye premiums and be ruthless with midpricers if need be.
Everyone's plans are different though.
No idea yet. I think with the good crop of mid pricers and rookies available that the forwards are where the money is to be made and I've gone heavy in the backs and mids. F1 is Fyfe. I think the top forwards aren't available as fwds yet, going to let the investments ripen and pick off any of the mids that get dual position. Will look at Flanders after his bye.
If Darcy was down for more than 8, I'd be picking Jackson, but four rounds of sugar hit is not worth it for mine.
If Darcy was down for more than 8, I'd be picking Jackson, but four rounds of sugar hit is not worth it for mine.
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Or ... Heeney will probably give out some decent scores to start with and revert to 100 afterwards and not need trading.
Across his 178-game career Heeney is an 85-90 player playing predominantly as a specialist forward with stints on ball. Accordingly, there is a strong correlation between his spike SC scores and stats for goals, score involvements, forward 50 entries, marks inside 50, contested marks etc.
But the 85-90 figure is arrived at across multiple seasons. Although over a long enough timeline Heeney will flatten out to 85-90, within a particular season he has averaged as little as 79.7 (2016, his sop****re season) and as much as 101.2 (2022, when he kicked 46 goals).
This can also be seen in clusters of games within seasons.
In any given year that theory doesn't mean much in practice because there are other options available at the same price point that don't carry as much inherent "burn risk" as Heeney. However, in 2024 the cupboard is bare for forward options and he appears to have a midfield role for at least the first 6 weeks, militating in favour of taking him from the start (as distinct from trading him in during the first third of the season if he looks attractive).
The reason I say he will probably revert to 100 (rather than his historical average of 85-90) once Parker/Adams/Mills (and now Sheldrick!) return is because he is 27, will be incumbent in the role and will need to be pushed out. As others have mentioned, Sydney has decent forward options in the interim and those names returning from injury (in particular Parker) have good enough forward craft that they can return to the side via forward roles rather than usurping an in-form Heeney. The reason I mention age is because Parker and Adams are both the wrong side of 30. Make of that what you will.
Those high-scoring clusters I mentioned earlier average out to 116. So let's say for the sake of argument he averages 116 over the first 6 (not including the Rd 0 144).
Rd 0 was phenomenal for Heeney. As far as I can tell he had career-best figures for clearances, inside 50s, contested ball and metres gained. If he represented value (albeit with some risk) without the midfield role and with plenty of other forward options about, then in a season with barely any forward options that risk is mitigated significantly. If he has a midfield role for the foreseeable future and scored 144 at his first outing, it's as good as eliminated.
In my opinion.
Across his 178-game career Heeney is an 85-90 player playing predominantly as a specialist forward with stints on ball. Accordingly, there is a strong correlation between his spike SC scores and stats for goals, score involvements, forward 50 entries, marks inside 50, contested marks etc.
But the 85-90 figure is arrived at across multiple seasons. Although over a long enough timeline Heeney will flatten out to 85-90, within a particular season he has averaged as little as 79.7 (2016, his sop****re season) and as much as 101.2 (2022, when he kicked 46 goals).
This can also be seen in clusters of games within seasons.
- From Rd 1-5 2018 he averaged 112.4
- From Rd 9-12 2018 he averaged 118.0
- From Rd 1-5 2022 he averaged 122.4
- From Rd 17-23 2022 he averaged 110.0
- 2016: 80
- 2017: 98
- 2018: 98
- 2019: 94
- 2020: 94
- 2021: 84
- 2022: 101
- 2023: 87
In any given year that theory doesn't mean much in practice because there are other options available at the same price point that don't carry as much inherent "burn risk" as Heeney. However, in 2024 the cupboard is bare for forward options and he appears to have a midfield role for at least the first 6 weeks, militating in favour of taking him from the start (as distinct from trading him in during the first third of the season if he looks attractive).
The reason I say he will probably revert to 100 (rather than his historical average of 85-90) once Parker/Adams/Mills (and now Sheldrick!) return is because he is 27, will be incumbent in the role and will need to be pushed out. As others have mentioned, Sydney has decent forward options in the interim and those names returning from injury (in particular Parker) have good enough forward craft that they can return to the side via forward roles rather than usurping an in-form Heeney. The reason I mention age is because Parker and Adams are both the wrong side of 30. Make of that what you will.
Those high-scoring clusters I mentioned earlier average out to 116. So let's say for the sake of argument he averages 116 over the first 6 (not including the Rd 0 144).
- Heeney scoring 116 over the first 6 and then reverting to 100 gives 104 for the year.
- Heeney scoring 116 over the first 6 and then reverting to 95 gives 101 for the year.
- Heeney scoring 116 over the first 6 and then reverting to 90 gives 97 for the year.
Rd 0 was phenomenal for Heeney. As far as I can tell he had career-best figures for clearances, inside 50s, contested ball and metres gained. If he represented value (albeit with some risk) without the midfield role and with plenty of other forward options about, then in a season with barely any forward options that risk is mitigated significantly. If he has a midfield role for the foreseeable future and scored 144 at his first outing, it's as good as eliminated.
In my opinion.
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Just my 2C on the Lyons chat
I see absolutely no reason to force him into your team if he wasn’t in your original considerations, particularly if it is at the expensive of a rookie who presents as an on field option.
Brisbane play this week and then have the bye. Why not give it another week to watch his role, and also watch other rookies who play the next 2 weeks whilst Lyons only plays the one game.
I personally am very intrigued as it’s hard to overlook him at 260k. I will be holding off so I can watch, however will make note that he is my bail out option on Fyfe if he’s sub
I see absolutely no reason to force him into your team if he wasn’t in your original considerations, particularly if it is at the expensive of a rookie who presents as an on field option.
Brisbane play this week and then have the bye. Why not give it another week to watch his role, and also watch other rookies who play the next 2 weeks whilst Lyons only plays the one game.
I personally am very intrigued as it’s hard to overlook him at 260k. I will be holding off so I can watch, however will make note that he is my bail out option on Fyfe if he’s sub
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Yeah the forwards are rubbish, and tbh, the mid-price options like Hermes’, Billings, Fyfe and Jordan are rubbish, just not as much rubbish I guess as most of the premiums. I‘m still not sure there is anymore value in a Harmes, Jordan, Billings, Fyfe etc. over some of the rookie options.
For me I think Jackson with no bye or Shrek for ~ 4 weeks, Heeney and Flanders just give some breathing space for the start of the season to see what’s going on forward. These guys really only need to average 100+ for the duration I own them, after that I couldn’t care les what they do.
If there was no early bye for the season, maybe Flanders would be the only lock in my forward line and that’s a stretch
For me I think Jackson with no bye or Shrek for ~ 4 weeks, Heeney and Flanders just give some breathing space for the start of the season to see what’s going on forward. These guys really only need to average 100+ for the duration I own them, after that I couldn’t care les what they do.
If there was no early bye for the season, maybe Flanders would be the only lock in my forward line and that’s a stretch
With my current setup, am starting the season with around 70k.
If Lyons looks a must have, would very much be case of
Do I have an underperforming midpricer? (Crouch, Fisher, Jordan)
Do I have a rookie that doesn’t impress? (any, 70k will be put towards this)
Or, Does Lyons looks so good, that I force a restructure and force out a premium early
If Lyons looks a must have, would very much be case of
Do I have an underperforming midpricer? (Crouch, Fisher, Jordan)
Do I have a rookie that doesn’t impress? (any, 70k will be put towards this)
Or, Does Lyons looks so good, that I force a restructure and force out a premium early
