Analysis Rucking Forwards

Impromptu

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#1
There have been a number of notable changes in SuperCoach 2013, notably an increase in Ruck and Forwards Dual Position Players (DPPs) including Dean Cox, Paddy Ryer and Nic Naitanui.

There has already be great discussions in the main forum of Forwards (FWD) and Rucks (RUC), namely:

An interesting topic that came up was whether to start Cox, Naitanui, Ryder, Roughead who are all Forwards/Ruck DPP as a Forward or as a Ruck. This led to the comparison between these Forward/Ruck DPP such as Cox, Naitanui, Ryder etc with the likes of Rockliff, Buddy, SJ etc.

However, we need to be careful when making comparisons with the Forward/Ruck DPP with Forwards as in some circumstances the correct comparison may be a pure Ruck with a Forward, when deciding on a Forward position.

In order to determine which comparison is the appropriate one, you need to rank all your premium Rucks on who you would select first in your team, which may not necessarily be the most expensive player or the best average. Your ranking of the Rucks is on how you rank the rucks in terms of your team selection. If:

  • The Forward/Ruck DPP is ranked 1 or 2, then you need to compare your third Ruck (regardless if DPP) with the relevant Forward (Scenario 1)
  • The Forward/Ruck DPP is ranked 3, then you can compare this Forward/Ruck DPP with the relevant Forward (Scenario 2)
I think it's easier to illustrate it with an example. Say you are not selecting Naitanui due to Naitanui's recent surgery and have Goldstein, Cox and Ryder in your radar and you are deciding between Cox and Ryder against Buddy in your comparison of Forward selection.

Now assume that the Ruck ranking is Cox(1), Ryder(2) and Goldstein(3), then you should be comparing Goldstein(Ruc) with Buddy(Fwd) even though Cox(1) and Ryder(2) will be playing in the Forward and not Goldstein(3), who is a pure Ruck. The reason is you have already decided Cox(1) and Ryder(2) in your team and they are locked. If Cox and Ryder are locks then there is no need for a comparison with Buddy before Goldstein.

Now you need to make a notional comparison of the Forwards being Goldstein and Buddy. If you think Goldstein will outperform Buddy then you select Goldstein as a notional Forward, with the movement of the Ruck/Forward Cox or Ryder to the Forward. If you think Buddy will outperform Goldstein then obviously Buddy plays in the Forwards and Goldstein is not selected. This is Scenario 1.

Now assume that the ranking is Cox(1), Goldstein(2) and Ryder(3), then ithe comparison should be Ryder(Fwd/Ruc) with Buddy. This is Scenario 2.

We need to be careful what we don't mix scenario 1 with scenario 2 and vice-versa. Sometimes you will be comparing your Forward, such as Buddy with pure Ruck, such as Goldstein in team selection. Other times, you will be comparing Buddy with Cox and Ryder.

Another illustration of scenario 2 is my final round of SuperCoach 2011 with Drew Petrie and Tendai Mzungu.

A paragraph in the previous article: Trading To Win (2), illustrates this, which I quote:
I got to a stage where I got sick of Kruezer’s low score and started rookies Mzungu/I.Smith effectively over Kruezer. I did this by moving Petrie to the Ruck and started Mzungu/I.Smith on the field, which meant I would get Mzungu/I.Smith score over Kruezer. Most people who read the Herald Sun article: ‘Jay To hangs on $50,000 Supercoach Prize‘ would know that if I started Kruezer over Mzungu in round 24, I would have lost the $50K! Also a few weeks earlier, I started I. Smith and Mzungu over N. Riewoldt and Kruezer. I guess fortune favours the Brave (or more likely Crazy)!

What made the decision a bit easier was that in round 24, it was a decision between starting Mzungu (114) v Bulldogs or Kruezer (24) v Saints. To me, starting Mzungu over Kruezer was actually an acknowledgement that I was wrong!! However, I at least followed my own rules such as Rule 15: If you make a Mistake, Acknowledge It and Fix It. I couldn’t fix the Kruezer problem as I didn’t have any spare trades left, therefore I had to create a makeshift solution, ie starting ‘rookies’ I. Smith/Mzungu over the ‘premium’ Kruezer.
As you can see the structure was R1, Petrie (R2), Kruezer (R3) and Mzungu (F7) and thus I was comparing Mzungu(Fwd) with Kruezer(Ruc) for a Forward position, even though Kruezer is not a Forward. I was not comparing Mzungu(Fwd) with Petrie(Fwd/Ruc) even though they have the Forward attribute.

Therefore, remember when you are making your team selection and comparing Cox and/or Ryder with Buddy that it's the correct comparison as you may be actually comparing Buddy with the third Ruck, and in this case Goldstein.
 

Rowsus

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#2
Do you, or should you, make any allowance for DPP when comparing?
The added flexibilty can be good, but do you make an allowance for that? Or do you do it on a straight scoring basis?
ie, if you are comparing Ryder and Franklin for eg.
 
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#4
Do you, or should you, make any allowance for DPP when comparing?
The added flexibilty can be good, but do you make an allowance for that? Or do you do it on a straight scoring basis?
ie, if you are comparing Ryder and Franklin for eg.
Well, in my opinion, it depends on the Team, and the Job Security of each player in the Positions. If you have a lot of Rookies, or Mid-Pricers, who are likely to be injured or lose their spot, then look to a "High Premium" rather than a DPP. If you can see that the Position(s), are fairly safe, and may be just the occasional injury, then DPP will help out.

Obviously, it is too early to say an answer right now as we will change our teams numerously, but, once you have selected a side. Analyse the DPP's, and see if it really is worth getting or are you safe to pick up a Single Positioned High Premium instead.

I hope I've made a bit of sense here. =/
 
S

supergirl

#5
Great! Love how you've explained the comparison from 'pure ruck' to 'fwd ruck' and 'pure fwd'. Having the number 3 being compared to what could potential cost you points choosing a dpp over a pure.
 
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#6
Surely the value of having DPP flexibility at the start of the year counts for something and may be worth, in the course of a season and limited trades, a small concession in comparative head to head points scored by each player? given the changes structure of ruck scoring by Champion Data a couple of seasons back, the better ruck man can keep pace with almost all pure forwards.
 

Hairy

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Hawthorn
#7
There is obvious value in some of the premium rucks as forwards. Their points are far outwaying some of the other fwds and fwd/mids in the league.

An example
Nic Nat / Ivan Maric "could" be considered a premium ruck combo.
Dean Cox could take the place of a Taylor Walker/ Brent Harvey / Tom Rockliff you'd still try and keep the best scoring forward, our man buddy. This would give great flex ability to allow for Cox to sub in for Nic Nat if injured.
 

Goodie's Guns

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#8
There is obvious value in some of the premium rucks as forwards. Their points are far outwaying some of the other fwds and fwd/mids in the league.

An example
Nic Nat / Ivan Maric "could" be considered a premium ruck combo.
Dean Cox could take the place of a Taylor Walker/ Brent Harvey / Tom Rockliff you'd still try and keep the best scoring forward, our man buddy. This would give great flex ability to allow for Cox to sub in for Nic Nat if injured.
Yeah I totally agree with you, gives added flex ability, possible advantage during the byes and more powerful scoring options.
 

IDIG

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#9
Do you, or should you, make any allowance for DPP when comparing?
The added flexibilty can be good, but do you make an allowance for that? Or do you do it on a straight scoring basis?
ie, if you are comparing Ryder and Franklin for eg.
Good point there but in my eyes it's pure points plus the added bonus of DPP which wins in the end. Looking at the R/F candidates, 3 of them are likely to be top 6 forwards and the other ahead of most of the others anyway so it then becomes a matter of the value of picking an underpriced forward vs the safer points of a full priced R/F.
 
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