Discussion 2025: Super Early SC Planning Thread - Team Picker Open

Do you start a $700k Gawn?

  • Yes

  • No


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Yes. Smashing it apparently. Marshall played fwd.

Appears Saints have signed him, just not up loaded yet into SC HS. Expect they do this once deadline finalised for all teams


View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2v1LbUWu0I4
The previews on Boyd are all pretty positive.. wondering why neither of the SA clubs have been interested in him, if he’s that good.. not like they have gun rucks
 
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Yeah they've created a bit of a puzzle for themselves down back because both Daniel and Fisher are liabilities, so playing both is going to be pretty hard to cover, McKercher actually wins defensively as well so he's a lot more suited to being there. Definitely going to be very interesting to see what exactly North does. They've gone very hard on the best player available recruiting strategy without seemingly putting any thought in to fielding an actual side so fitting it all together is going to be a challenge.

I agree entirely on Daniel but they're extremely lacking up forward with creativity so it's definitely plausible, they could also definitely use Fisher in that kind of role too, fwiw. Both in the same scenario, would be fantasy death if forward.





That's one way of looking at it, obviously the alternative is that having that ruck also provides cover for the hardest positions to cover on the field which is R1-2.

Realistically you want the best averaging player you can get to cover most likely the F6 position that has been weakest for several years now. A mid is definitely the most flexible, I don't think you really need the M/F on the cover, you want the best pure scorer and can find that flexibility with rookies and weaker cover options. The Flex should ideally be in your best 22 if things work out. It's effectively back to the good old days when you'd have a couple of extra mid premiums on the bench with the emergency set and a couple of missing forwards to cover (when EMG covered all positions!).

Having a ruck there has the negative of making covering the flex position harder, albeit if it's a long term injury you will trade anyway, but having the ruck there provides huge cover for the rucks where a 1 week injury/suspension can often force trades you'd rather not make.





I expect he plays mostly forward but they're pretty lacking in a dynamic midfielder, he's exactly what they actually need through there so to me it would make sense he plays plenty of midfield. Actually very similar to Rankine with Adelaide. It's actually why I'm pretty surprised they didn't go hard to get Warner this year as well because he's exactly what they're missing. They've got an elite guy in Serong, a big body in Young and a workhorse in Brayshaw but they lack a real linebreaker and player who can shift them off the beaten path so to speak, Young could potentially be that but he's more of a straight line guy. I think they should be playing him as their 4th mid but suspect you're probably right that he gets more of the Papley or Pickett role of forward who gets some CBA. Either way he's still pretty underpriced with the best bye. although I'd personally prefer to pay less for Phillipou and Macrae right now.
This just came up on my feed, Al Paton so read it as you will, just thought it was pertinent.

'After Daniel’s trade from the Bulldogs to North Melbourne was signed off, his manager Marty Pask described the new partnership as “the perfect marriage”. “He’s spoken to Alastair Clarkson about the role that he wants to play, and I think that was pivotal – when you move you want to know clearly what the role might be,” Pask told AFL Trade Radio. “He’ll go there as a half-back. That was something that was really important to him, to feel the ball again and use his weapons ... He wants to play free and happy and this is a good opportunity to do it.” Daniel won’t be the only happy one if he can follow in the SuperCoach scoring footsteps of recent Kangaroos running defenders including Jack Ziebell, Aaron Hall, Harry Sheezel and Zac Fisher.'
 
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I get that, but it depends on what you paid for him I guess. There's a fair bit of variance in his scores last year with 7 scores over 135 and 7 scores below 91. I'm not sure that I'll start him but he's in the flex position for now, I reckon those higher scores are the thing that's pushing me in that direction.
I think the progression of Darcy doesn't help him at all, i don't see him averaging more than 110 and shares the buy with North, Port and Carlton which could be tricky.
 
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Long time listener first time caller. I see a lot of talk about the flex when as far as I can see it warrants none. All it is is a vehicle to avoid your lowest score. You make your team of 31 as best you can and then each week put a premo in that position who plays as early as possible. I can’t see any additional flexibility in taking a ruck. R1 or R2 gets injured and doesn’t play… the flex just takes their spot as an emergency would. I would say the goal is to finish your 30 as quick as possible and then the final piece of the puzzle if you can avoid carnage is to bring in the best player you can afford at 31 which would ideally be the best missing from your team mid or ruck…. The flex does allow you to take a risk with a Matt Flynn or Darcy Fort if Oscar was injured without fear of having to use multiple trades to correct if blows up spectacularly…. That would be the only strategy o see in it…
 
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In the process of picking, will mention some of the other names I looked at...

DEF

Flanders - Some upside potential but most likely I think he's priced fairly, round 0 bye and then round 2 as well, not ideal.
Ryan - Starts hot which definitely has appeal. Like Flanders, feels fairly priced.
Whitfield - Round 0 bye, terrible durability history and I think fairly priced.
Zorko - Round 0 bye, age, role and fairly priced is a non-starter for me.
McGovern - Fully priced, durability.
Houston - Round 0 bye and the new team is enough for me.
Martin/Ridley/McGrath/Redman - Round 0 bye, cannibalism.
Clark - Actually really like him, 109 average from round 10, best bye. Will be very high on my watchlist (WL). Forward tags are probably my biggest concern here which is the best negative.
Newman - Quite like him but with Doch back will need to see how they set up. Lower on my WL but on it.
NWM - Like Clark, very high on my WL, I like Sinclair and Clark more at this point but I could very well roll with all 3!
Holmes/Sicily/Stewart/Blakey - I actually like all 4 as picks but the round 0 bye to me really hurts them all given I don't see a marked difference to Sinclair or Clark who don't have the bye. Holmes hamstrings scare me, Stewart with tags and just his age, Sicily with a whole new support crew and Blakey just needing to hit a level he never has.
Dale - I think he's pretty fairly priced but decent bye and will watch preseason to confirm. Definitely on the WL.
Hinge - I quite like him, will watch closely, durability is a huge issue for him though.
Duggan - Will watch but unlikely.
Short - Great price, definitely very high on my watch list with Rioli gone. Needs a good preseason though.
Bergman - Will watch, someone will be eating up the Houston points, he's a decent chance. I expect it ends up committee but he does mark very well so he has the upside potential if he gets a lot of it.
Mills - Watching. At a price where round 0 goes out the window if he's fit and in the right role. Both are questions to be answered. He really hasn't been fit for a couple of years though and not convinced the achilles/knee issues wont be permanent from here.
Coleman - A watch for round 1, the early byes probably make him more of a trade target, especially if not there for round 0. On the WL though.

MID
Butters - Very strong option, I still don't trust his body and not convinced where more points can come from so pretty fairly priced. That bye is going to take some managing also.
Neale - He's a gun but at his age, with more help, I wouldn't be surprised if they manage him a bit more. Also the early byes.
Daicos - If not for the round 0 factor, I'd probably start him. Will get tagged heavily though. Wouldn't be shocked if he's a 130 guy though, probably an early trade target.
Heeney - With his durability record and round 0, not high on my radar right now. Will watch in preseason though as proved to be a 130 guy when fit last year.
Treloar - I prefer Bont or Butters to be honest. Durability always been a concern and his age doesn't help that.
Serong - Really like him, tags towards end of last year hurt though and will continue I think. Very high on my WL.
Merrett - Round 0 is really my only issue here.
Dunkley - Another where round 0 and durability are both concerns, albeit durability a lot less at Brisbane where they have miracle water.
Cripps - Durability record and ball usage, he's pretty much at the right price for him. Maybe can push 120 if things go perfect but we all know he can crater to the 90s as well.
Brayshaw - I always have a hard time with more outside guys that can't kick, makes SC a very hard battle. That said, he closed out last year well after struggling to find his place behind Young and Serong and has been very durable, has a great bye. He's very much on the WL.
Steele - Too many injuries the past couple of years, think he's fairly priced.
Walsh - Durability has also been an issue but if he has a perfect preseason then he's going to race up the watchlist. He's kind of similar to Brayshaw though, the outside guys who can't kick are always fighting the uphill battle.
Gulden - Too many other mids in the way of a genuine midfield role, so will have too many really bad games. Throw in round 0 and he's a pure upgrade target for me.
Anderson - Round 0, throw in the can't kick basket. Upgrade target maybe.
Green - Round 0 is my issue here, would probably start him otherwise with that 5 and the month that followed it in anchoring his average.
Crouch/Yeo/Libba/Miller/Kelly - Throw them in the trust issues pile.
Warner - Round 0 and far too inconsistent and susceptible to tags. Upgrade target, if anything.
Dawson - Very strong watchlist. Hasn't been good when Crouch plays but there's a lot of upside if he figures it out. For whatever reason his kicking was a disaster last year.
Rowell - If he wasn't cursed by round 0, I'd be very strongly considering him.
Young/Richards - Like them an awful lot, definitely on the radar but a pretty faint bleep right now.
Newcombe - Will be watching but round 0 deads this, did finish well last year after a disastrous start.
Day - Round 0 again, durability also a major problem, he's so good though.
Parish - Round 0 makes it very hard but will watch closely, the price point is insanely tempting if he's fit and in the right role.
Wardlaw - Watching. Think it's a year or two away but I love the way he goes about it.
De Goey - Round 0 probably wipes but very cheap for what he can do.
Ashcroft - R0 strikes again, kids a stud and wouldn't be surprised if he pushes to 110 region.
Reid - Very similar vibe, honestly wouldn't be surprised if he pushes towards the 110+ region either. For a 2nd year player, tags are my real concern and that's kind of absurd. If he was 350k, I think I'd start him.
Coniglio - R0 probably saves me but another at a very tempting price.
Bruhn - R0 eliminates but I think he could take the jump this year.
Cumming - Will watch for role but an exquisite price if his body is right and he's playing HBF.
Guthrie - Similar to Cumming, albeit R0 makes it harder and not sure his role exists anymore. Anyone below here I've thrown in the rookie category.

RUC
Gawn - Fairly priced for mine.
Xerri - Also pretty fairly priced.
Marshall - Ditto. As someone who loves to hunt value it's hard to see on all 3, would probably grab Marshall on that factor of this trio.
Nank - Feels maxed out and more likely to go backwards.
English - To me, has the most upside of the top tier guys but will watch.
Witts - Bad back at his age/size is a real concern to me. That one off season also stands out. His backup is also a serious talent and I expect they blood him some more this year. R0 the death knell.
Grundy - Fairly priced at this point, definitely a case for a bit of upside but not sure it's really worth chasing.
Cameron/Meek/OMc/Briggs - Can make a case for a few points here or there for all but R0 is a killer.
Darcy - Would need to see a lot, the fact that there's already articles of "how fit he is" showing up with pictures of him still looking overweight is the concern. You can almost make out some definition in one of his arms in the best of the photos. Looking fat is better than obese but he still doesn't look like he's in AFL shape. Given Jackson is there and we now have a season and a half of him being no good with Jackson there, it's definitely an awkward position. He's absolutely on the WL though.
Sweet/ROB - WL only at this point, I think both are a bit underpriced though but I can't see the upside to make it worthwhile.
Conway - One to watch if he wins the #1 gig outright but R0 killer.
I assume SuperCoach starts at Round 1 like last season? In this case, I presume it is advantageous to start players who have already had a Bye in round 0 as they will only have one further Bye for the rest of the season? But you seem to have eliminated a lot of players due to having the round 0 Bye….. I’m a bit confused. Have I misinterpreted what you are saying? (Or maybe I’m just tired after a long year 😋)
 
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I assume SuperCoach starts at Round 1 like last season? In this case, I presume it is advantageous to start players who have already had a Bye in round 0 as they will only have one further Bye for the rest of the season? But you seem to have eliminated a lot of players due to having the round 0 Bye….. I’m a bit confused. Have I misinterpreted what you are saying? (Or maybe I’m just tired after a long year 😋)
Round zero isn't a bye though, the 8 teams that play round zero get two byes, the first ones are rounds 2, 3 and 4.
The other 10 teams all have their one bye in the mid season byes, rounds 12 to 15.
Round zero playing teams have their 2nd bye in the mid season rounds but from 14 to 16.
 
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1734867863956.png

So I'm chopping and changing a lot trying to tweak the side. I'm more concerned with the structural side of things over the exact personnel, though in some cases the personnel inform the structure; because sometimes there's no equivilent player at the same price. Doing this months from the start of the season is a big exercise in futility.

The biggest hurdle I need to address is building a team from the bottom up. So many seasons I start with overvaluing my bottom half-dozen players who just clog my bench in the magoos and don't make more than $50k, so I want my bench to be consistently playing this year. Even if they average about 50; it's fine if they keep motoring along with green dots. I think I've done okay at this early stage balancing bench JS and scoring potential.

I won't be going line by line, instead I'll be going by predicted value strata.

Potentially Overpriced:

Sheezel.

So I've been reluctant to overspend anywhere in the team, but the question is, can you always pick at value? Sheezel is probably my only solid C choice early on, even if he could be 2-3 ppg overpriced.

Fairly Priced:

Clark, LDU, JHF, Rankine.

If these players all finished between +/- 2.5 ppg of their starting price I wouldn't be surprised. People well overestimate how many points a player can average overall. And some might rightfully point out that picking someone like LDU isn't worth it if I think he's going to average 110. But I'd say that the story would change if I was bullish on him going 115-120. The other side of the coin is that the players going 115-120 have more risk of dropping, so a solid 110 option at fair starting value isn't so bad. The other thing is that overall average doesn't matter, what matters is the price one pays and the average in one's team. The other issue is structure. Rankine was my last picked 'premium' but I think he keeps my best 23 extremely solid.

Potential Value Keepers:

NWM, Petracca, Dawson, Oliver, TDK, Macrae, B. Smith.

So these players go between a few ppg of upside, potential list cloggers to potential best of line picks at massive discount. If the season averages of these players ended up being 105, 110, 110, 110, 110, 95, 100 that would be a decent return to me.

Potential Value Keepers with Cash Cow upside.

Mills, Coleman, Flynn, Philipou, Daniel.

Basically the same as above but with the exit of potentially being able to cash them in if they don't work. On the flip side, if they fail early, a complete restructure could be extremely costly.

Cash Cows: 14

Now is this the best strategy? How many top of the line players should one have, even if they overspend. How many top of the line players from 2024 will end up being top of line in 2025. Who will cruise at $630k+ for the whole season? Who will cruise at $630k for the first quarter/third/half of the season before crashing and burning everyone who picked them. Who will go the other way?

I wanted to go a full value side with literally millions in the bank but I calculated I had to average something like 2600 ppr from Round 7 to have a chance of winning overall; even if my side was the absolute best in the comp by the end of upgrade season there's no way I could guarantee that happening, even if I managed to get 25-26 gun premiums, I'd still be relying on nailing fielding choices and there's diminishing returns on the value of each premium beyond a full side. Maybe a strategy like that could still work for hunting late season weekly prizes or cash leagues though; always buying at value and never spending over $550k, for instance. But also, I think it's important to remember not spend cash just because one has it. I always forget that rule.
 
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Cash Cows: 14

Now is this the best strategy? How many top of the line players should one have, even if they overspend. How many top of the line players from 2024 will end up being top of line in 2025. Who will cruise at $630k+ for the whole season? Who will cruise at $630k for the first quarter/third/half of the season before crashing and burning everyone who picked them. Who will go the other way?
While the following numbers are not line specific and are across the board perhaps I can add these in to your bowl of confusion stew. A few weeks ago I looked at players that ave 110 or more and where they ended up the season after that.

In 2022 there were 22 players that ave 110 or more. In 2023, of those 22 only 6 improved their ave. Four of the 2022 top five dropped by double digits and the other Oliver dropped by 6 points. This does need a bit of context in that Oliver missed a string of games mid season. However in raw number terms although he dropped from 127 to 121 and that cost cash etc you cannot say a player ave 121 is bad pick. Likewise you may be splitting hairs with someone like Brayshaw who went from 112 to 109.

Then taking those 2023 players in the 110 Club you look at 2024 and again there are only 4 players that improved. Again 4 of the top 5 from 2023 dropped by double digits with only Bont dropping in single digits. But again dropping from 130 to 126 isn’t the worst result. The special mention in those that improved goes to Neale who after ave 123 in 2022 returned to a 120 ave. I think players who have hit above 120 and then drop below it rarely get back to that level (there was a post a few years ago by someone to that effect).

I suspect that in 2025 we will again see a lot of 110 Club members from 2024 drop out because many appear to have had spike years. The players that went 110 or above in 2024 that were not there in 2023 include Gawn (return to form so maybe no surprise), Xerri, Flanders, Sheezel, Treloar, Heeney, Ryan, Whitfield, Nank, Brayshaw, Sinclair, P Cripps, McGovern, Zorko. I think there are a few candidates for a drop in ave in that lot.
 
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Got the message when editing my BBL team that my SC Plus trial ends today, so it's only a short term deal.

I should see if I can find time over the weekend to recreate my Excel team picker from a few years ago (if I can find it), should be possible with the data Beg2Differ provided. Definitely wasn't flashy but it seemed to work.
Couldn't find a working version of the team picker I created a few years back, so created another one from scratch tonight. It's quite basic and plain, but it should be easy to use (it is more user friendly than the previous version anyway). It should be useful for anyone without SC Plus to start creating teams until SC opens anyway.

Let me know if there's any issues.

Thanks to @Beg2Differ for the player data used to create this.
 

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I think will day is going to explode this year. The double bye is the only reason I'm not starting him. differently daicos and day are my first to upgrades.
 
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View attachment 81650

So I'm chopping and changing a lot trying to tweak the side. I'm more concerned with the structural side of things over the exact personnel, though in some cases the personnel inform the structure; because sometimes there's no equivilent player at the same price. Doing this months from the start of the season is a big exercise in futility.

The biggest hurdle I need to address is building a team from the bottom up. So many seasons I start with overvaluing my bottom half-dozen players who just clog my bench in the magoos and don't make more than $50k, so I want my bench to be consistently playing this year. Even if they average about 50; it's fine if they keep motoring along with green dots. I think I've done okay at this early stage balancing bench JS and scoring potential.

I won't be going line by line, instead I'll be going by predicted value strata.

Potentially Overpriced:

Sheezel.

So I've been reluctant to overspend anywhere in the team, but the question is, can you always pick at value? Sheezel is probably my only solid C choice early on, even if he could be 2-3 ppg overpriced.

Fairly Priced:

Clark, LDU, JHF, Rankine.

If these players all finished between +/- 2.5 ppg of their starting price I wouldn't be surprised. People well overestimate how many points a player can average overall. And some might rightfully point out that picking someone like LDU isn't worth it if I think he's going to average 110. But I'd say that the story would change if I was bullish on him going 115-120. The other side of the coin is that the players going 115-120 have more risk of dropping, so a solid 110 option at fair starting value isn't so bad. The other thing is that overall average doesn't matter, what matters is the price one pays and the average in one's team. The other issue is structure. Rankine was my last picked 'premium' but I think he keeps my best 23 extremely solid.

Potential Value Keepers:

NWM, Petracca, Dawson, Oliver, TDK, Macrae, B. Smith.

So these players go between a few ppg of upside, potential list cloggers to potential best of line picks at massive discount. If the season averages of these players ended up being 105, 110, 110, 110, 110, 95, 100 that would be a decent return to me.

Potential Value Keepers with Cash Cow upside.

Mills, Coleman, Flynn, Philipou, Daniel.

Basically the same as above but with the exit of potentially being able to cash them in if they don't work. On the flip side, if they fail early, a complete restructure could be extremely costly.

Cash Cows: 14

Now is this the best strategy? How many top of the line players should one have, even if they overspend. How many top of the line players from 2024 will end up being top of line in 2025. Who will cruise at $630k+ for the whole season? Who will cruise at $630k for the first quarter/third/half of the season before crashing and burning everyone who picked them. Who will go the other way?

I wanted to go a full value side with literally millions in the bank but I calculated I had to average something like 2600 ppr from Round 7 to have a chance of winning overall; even if my side was the absolute best in the comp by the end of upgrade season there's no way I could guarantee that happening, even if I managed to get 25-26 gun premiums, I'd still be relying on nailing fielding choices and there's diminishing returns on the value of each premium beyond a full side. Maybe a strategy like that could still work for hunting late season weekly prizes or cash leagues though; always buying at value and never spending over $550k, for instance. But also, I think it's important to remember not spend cash just because one has it. I always forget that rule.
Some things to consider. A cheap R2, early injury and its difficult to find that 300-400K to upgrade to a premium. Flynn also has a injury riddle last year. Flynn is great value R3 of flex position.?

On Rankine, Peatling has joined the crows and will fill one of the holes in the Midfield, this kid Draper is a jet who will also demand time in the midfield rotation. Rankine style of play is all in, with his frame, that's injury written all over it.

Laird talk of him moving back to the H/B role, could be interesting if it plays out that way. Chance of a D/M
 
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Some things to consider. A cheap R2, early injury and its difficult to find that 300-400K to upgrade to a premium. Flynn also has a injury riddle last year. Flynn is great value R3 of flex position.?

On Rankine, Peatling has joined the crows and will fill one of the holes in the Midfield, this kid Draper is a jet who will also demand time in the midfield rotation. Rankine style of play is all in, with his frame, that's injury written all over it.

Laird talk of him moving back to the H/B role, could be interesting if it plays out that way. Chance of a D/M
Yeah Rankine is my 'last picked' and I could easily see myself cutting him for someone else.

I'm not fussed about Flynn R2 if he is 1st choice for West Coast. I'm pretty confident Boyd will be #1 ruck for the Saints so moving Flynn to flex doesn't appeal to me unless Conway is solo ruck for the Cats.
 
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Yeah Rankine is my 'last picked' and I could easily see myself cutting him for someone else.

I'm not fussed about Flynn R2 if he is 1st choice for West Coast. I'm pretty confident Boyd will be #1 ruck for the Saints so moving Flynn to flex doesn't appeal to me unless Conway is solo ruck for the Cats.
Whos boyd?
 
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Some things to consider. A cheap R2, early injury and its difficult to find that 300-400K to upgrade to a premium. Flynn also has a injury riddle last year. Flynn is great value R3 of flex position.?

On Rankine, Peatling has joined the crows and will fill one of the holes in the Midfield, this kid Draper is a jet who will also demand time in the midfield rotation. Rankine style of play is all in, with his frame, that's injury written all over it.

Laird talk of him moving back to the H/B role, could be interesting if it plays out that way. Chance of a D/M
Peatling is very high on my watch list and is currently at M5 in my team. If he is given the same role that he had in closing out the season at GWS and there's no reason to think that he won't especially given the demand for him then he's a lock for me.

In his last 8 games he had 2 where he was played as a forward and delivered crap scores, however, in the other 6 he averaged 103, he also scored well in 3 of the other 4 games where he wasn't sub.

He's priced at 70 and an average of 95-100 would make him an excellent stepping stone to a premium keeper before his bye in round 15
 
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Peatling is very high on my watch list and is currently at M5 in my team. If he is given the same role that he had in closing out the season at GWS and there's no reason to think that he won't especially given the demand for him then he's a lock for me.

In his last 8 games he had 2 where he was played as a forward and delivered crap scores, however, in the other 6 he averaged 103, he also scored well in 3 of the other 4 games where he wasn't sub.

He's priced at 70 and an average of 95-100 would make him an excellent stepping stone to a premium keeper before his bye in round 15
Agreed, really liking cummings as well. Ave back to back 90s playing halfback where he will play for Adelaide.
Guns and mid price this year for me.
 
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Surely he doesn't take the mantle of one of the inform rucks in the competition.
Maybe a backup ruck at best?
Saints are chasing another ruckman. They looked at Soldo then dropped the idea and now have Boyd in their sights. Marshall is 29, which is not old in ruck terms but clearly St Kilda have a plan in place given the effort they have put into locking down another ruck. If he stands up to AFL standard you would think he plays regularly and therefore could cut into Marshall ruck time. Played 79 SANFL games for 22 goals.
 
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