Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[BlufBlufShuv]

Thanks for your response. I'm not under any illusions that this strategy will work but if I can pick the right midpricers and rookies I think there could be some merit.

What I'm hoping is that the best 18 from the bye rounds also benefits this strategy. I must say I'll have to be very savvy with trading as I will need to trade the right midpricers to the fallen premos.

I'm also tailoring my side to exploit what I deem as value in the cap e.g strong forward line midpricers and high end midpricers in the midfield.

I don't fully trust too many backline premiums either. Maybe I've talked myself into that but if I can spread the funds around I think that 400k will not be the 70+ points per week extra that it is valued at.

If I can get an extra 150-200k cash generation and by using boosts I can hopefully make up some of the lost points.

I don't really think I will be behind when it comes to trades because I still have that 400k there and while it could be seen as one extra trade of a rookie to premium I think in reality if I can spread it around over several trades i shouldn't be behind in trades...it will just be the overall points.

Anyway, I'm glad to generate some discussion. I need to think about it a bit more too but I'm pretty much committed. I'll be aiming for 400kish but will be flexible too. If I get a team I want with 300k in the bank, I'll take it. I will be pretty strict about leaving 300k or more though.

I looked at this approach last year and am again this season. I think this season its probably closer to optimal and a better approach than what it was for last season.

The very big flaw the "Full Spend" approach has is that every season there are failed premos: last year Tom Stewart, Sicily, Dawson, Tim English etc. Which is to say going full spend doesn't mean you are a premo ahead of those that don't, and in fact you are well behind if you pick the wrong extra premo. It's a very big assumption to make that a player will definitely be a premo or worth close to their starting value when we have failures every season with starting "premos".

This season the mid-price/value plays look a lot stronger to me relative to last season, they are also a lot stronger when you compare them to the rookie priced players when comparing 2024 rookies/MPs to 2025 rookies/MPs. There were a lot of seasoned rookie price players last year, Matt Roberts, Jeremy Sharp, Sam Darcy, Oli Dempsey, Kai Lohmann etc. We were awash in great cash-gen options in 2024. You were miles ahead last season if you picked Oli Dempsey as a starter over say a James Jordon. GnR was a pretty good approach last season as a result. Last year was apparently a fantastic AFL draft but these players aren't seasoned at all and most will make no impact for us in fantasy formats in 2025. We're hoping a player like Angus Sheldrick puts his hand up but at this stage outside of him and maybe one or two others the cash gen options look slim.

So where is the cash gen coming from? Leaves us with the MPs which as a whole to me look a lot better this season than last; there's also a very good chance some MP/cut-price premos get full premo status the way I look at it (Clarry for example, Bailey Smith etc).

Which is to say if you pick your team and have some cash left over I don't really have a problem with it in 2025, at this stage at least.

 

[Darkie]

Thanks for your response. I'm not under any illusions that this strategy will work but if I can pick the right midpricers and rookies I think there could be some merit.

What I'm hoping is that the best 18 from the bye rounds also benefits this strategy. I must say I'll have to be very savvy with trading as I will need to trade the right midpricers to the fallen premos.

I'm also tailoring my side to exploit what I deem as value in the cap e.g strong forward line midpricers and high end midpricers in the midfield.

I don't fully trust too many backline premiums either. Maybe I've talked myself into that but if I can spread the funds around I think that 400k will not be the 70+ points per week extra that it is valued at.

If I can get an extra 150-200k cash generation and by using boosts I can hopefully make up some of the lost points.

I don't really think I will be behind when it comes to trades because I still have that 400k there and while it could be seen as one extra trade of a rookie to premium I think in reality if I can spread it around over several trades i shouldn't be behind in trades...it will just be the overall points.

Anyway, I'm glad to generate some discussion. I need to think about it a bit more too but I'm pretty much committed. I'll be aiming for 400kish but will be flexible too. If I get a team I want with 300k in the bank, I'll take it. I will be pretty strict about leaving 300k or more though.

It will be interesting to see how it goes. Experimenting is likely to show you something different about the game and perhaps it has a big longer term payoff even if it doesn’t fire for you in 2025.

I think the extra rookie you select will be roughly your 15th favorite, so $150-200k would be a very good result from that spot, but if you can get a discount on a premium that others can’t access, that does add to the cash generated/saved from that spot.

 

[OnTopBar]

I'm at a bit of a loss trying to work out whether Cummings is a worthwhile starting selection. I know he has been recruited to fill the HB distributor position which releases Dawson to his thing. He's Mid only for now but will likely pick up DPP status after round 6. He has scored well in the past but can butcher the ball, has a high kick-HB ratio which can be good though.

Currently running with Bont, Green, Dawson, Oliver and Peatling, so it'd be overkill to have 3 Crows in M1-M5, trouble is I can see upside in Dawson and Peatling is a great stepping stone if given the mid minutes.

 

[freowho]

I'm at a bit of a loss trying to work out whether Cummings is a worthwhile starting selection. I know he has been recruited to fill the HB distributor position which releases Dawson to his thing. He's Mid only for now but will likely pick up DPP status after round 6. He has scored well in the past but can butcher the ball, has a high kick-HB ratio which can be good though.

Currently running with Bont, Green, Dawson, Oliver and Peatling, so it'd be overkill to have 3 Crows in M1-M5, trouble is I can see upside in Dawson and Peatling is a great stepping stone if given the mid minutes.

Adelaide have a great bye setup. No early bye and rnd 15 so you can slingshot during the middle byes. You can carry a few players and Cumming and Peatling are only there for cash. If Cumming has kick ins he could be worth a go.

 

[Manikato1]

Adelaide have a great bye setup. No early bye and rnd 15 so you can slingshot during the middle byes. You can carry a few players and Cumming and Peatling are only there for cash. If Cumming has kick ins he could be worth a go.

Cumming currently out with yet another hamstring injury which have plagued him last few years. I think that adds another risk to a speculative pick. If he stays fit and gets the role then he could be a great stepping stone though.

 

[Arsenal]

Here was my attempt prior to new year, still need to tinker with form and selection leading into R0.

I've got big question mark on Phillipou and Daniel, i'm not convinced they'll fire and will most likely just clog my list with no real value to trade. Way to many risky options this year heading into the season.

I also feel i'm too rookie heavy, may need to lighten the three back line premo's to bring in another mid-ranger. Whilst i think they'll drop in value early it

 

[Under The Dome]

Here was my attempt prior to new year, still need to tinker with form and selection leading into R0.

I've got big question mark on Phillipou and Daniel, i'm not convinced they'll fire and will most likely just clog my list with no real value to trade. Way to many risky options this year heading into the season.

I also feel i'm too rookie heavy, may need to lighten the three back line premo's to bring in another mid-ranger. Whilst i think they'll drop in value early it

View attachment 82332

3 missing R2, 4 missing R3 and 1 missing R4.

 

[wogitalia]

What do SCS coaches think of Tim Taranto's prospects this season.
At around $509K, he's priced at 94.5 which I reckon is well under what he has shown before. Up to the R15 bye in his first season at Richmond he was averaging around 120 ... not sure why he really dropped off after that. Last year was very much injury interupted.
He's around prime 26/27 age & if he's fully fit, what can he average this season?

Body is a big issue as he just doesn't seem capable of staying fit, I feel like he was injured late in 2023 and played through it which was the big drop off.

Other issue is his disposal is putrid which always makes it a lot harder to put up points. His rookie season his only real season with a positive ratio (2020 COVID), so he just needs a lot more activity to score well. In a bad team that can be harder as less ball to go around in general.

He's definitely on the watch list though, decent price and bye combination. Feels like the Adelaide and Melbourne guys are similar value with an even better bye though, so does make it likely he's a more unique pick barring a monster preseason demanding selection.

 

[dlanod]

You'd be brave. Coleman seems the obvious other selection at the price range.

I love Coleman and he's penciled in given how long away from the season we are but everything from the club suggests he won't be back until about a month or so into the season (he's had a couple of cleanups after the initial surgery, so it's not been as clean a recovery as others).

 

[dlanod]

Good on you for trying to come up with a different approach, especially if your approach to date isn’t working for you.

I can see a benefit in starting to upgrade earlier, but in banking 400k to start, I think you are effectively starting one upgrade behind other teams. Ie the first upgrade (or first two half upgrades) are essentially catching you up to where other teams start, and you have likely foregone some points while you are one premium short.

Is there a pricing benefit you see from structuring up this way? I can see some potential if you can buy discounted premos that others can’t access, but whether this is a big advantage may depend on whether a premium that isn’t widely owned cops a very low score in one of the first few rounds.

I've tried variations on this and there's a sweet spot where, if you're happy with your team, keeping $100k-200k in the bank can be helpful. It allows you to switch an underperforming midpricer to a overperforming mid/keeper early on for the price of one trade.

$400k, to me, is way too much to keep though. I can't see how you're doing that without seriously compromising your team.

 

[warewolves]

Ivan Soldo coming in as backup after the bye may have changed positioning at ruck contests. I wouldn't rule out a slight coaching alteration coming at the bye either.

Taranto has often looked more a Fantasy option more than a SC option. This year again I think he will be a popular Fantasy choice. But as a SC choice I am not so sure. He does feel like a 100-105 sort of player. For me that’s then a question of whether you strategizing value plays with a view of upgrading them, or whether you looking at starting him in the hope he is a keeper. I think he might represent a little value as a stepping stone, but I don’t see him as a keeper

Body is a big issue as he just doesn't seem capable of staying fit, I feel like he was injured late in 2023 and played through it which was the big drop off.

Other issue is his disposal is putrid which always makes it a lot harder to put up points. His rookie season his only real season with a positive ratio (2020 COVID), so he just needs a lot more activity to score well. In a bad team that can be harder as less ball to go around in general.

He's definitely on the watch list though, decent price and bye combination. Feels like the Adelaide and Melbourne guys are similar value with an even better bye though, so does make it likely he's a more unique pick barring a monster preseason demanding selection.

Thanks for your thoughts on Taranto.

I suspect a lot will just pass over him - he's been around a while and didn't hit the headlines in 2024.
Just the same he's only 26/27 and should be at the peak of his career.

Admittedly he has missed games in 2020, 2022 & 2024 but mostly due to impact injuries I think - at least no history of chronic hamstrings.
The Tiges have lost/moved on Dusty, Graham, Baker & Bolton, so TT looks very much the main man in their mids.
I see him getting heaps of mid-minutes and maybe enough to compensate for his hack kicks.

 

[OnTopBar]

Adelaide have a great bye setup. No early bye and rnd 15 so you can slingshot during the middle byes. You can carry a few players and Cumming and Peatling are only there for cash. If Cumming has kick ins he could be worth a go.

Cumming currently out with yet another hamstring injury which have plagued him last few years. I think that adds another risk to a speculative pick. If he stays fit and gets the role then he could be a great stepping stone though.

The plethora of Mid only rookies compounds things somewhat. So to fit him into my structure requires the dropping of a Mid premo which then gives me an X v's Y v's Z scenario.

Green - Rivers - Marshall - Sims
V's
Cumming - Sheezel - Gawn - Fort

I think option 2 outscores option 1 with the added bonus of better cash generation and stepping stone ability

 

[Darkie]

I've tried variations on this and there's a sweet spot where, if you're happy with your team, keeping $100k-200k in the bank can be helpful. It allows you to switch an underperforming midpricer to a overperforming mid/keeper early on for the price of one trade.

$400k, to me, is way too much to keep though. I can't see how you're doing that without seriously compromising your team.

I agree that having a bit in the kitty is very helpful - it adds a lot of flexibility.

The ability to boost reduces the need to keep cash in the kitty, but I still think it’s quite beneficial.

I used to think that any more than a small amount in the bank was wasted points, but now my preference is probably to have somewhere around the amount you’ve mentioned if I can do it without too big a compromise to starting side.

 

[freowho]

The first image is my non rookie power rankings at the moment. I don't follow the rookies closely enough to make a list and will wait for preseason games. It's in order of how influential I think a player could be. Ability to make cash, provide value, stability, captains scores, take advantage of byes or separate themselves from others on their line.
It doesn't necessarily mean they get picked in that order.
For example, Horne Francis and Rankine could be very influential players this year because they can separate themselves within their line more than players on other lines can. But depending on where the cash cows fall I might start Brayshaw and Green instead, also knowing they will probably give me more early points. Where as the role that Brayshaw and Green play could be played by half a dozen other players.
The second image is of players who are still in consideration and might be needed depending how things play out. They are in order of preference within their main position.




I probably won't start Bont and Gawn due to age and price. I'm hoping to get the same output for less spend from other players.
Bont's AF score declined quite a lot last year which I find to be a better indicator of general output.

 

[Ironhawk]

The first image is my non rookie power rankings at the moment. I don't follow the rookies closely enough to make a list and will wait for preseason games. It's in order of how influential I think a player could be. Ability to make cash, provide value, stability, captains scores, take advantage of byes or separate themselves from others on their line.
It doesn't necessarily mean they get picked in that order.
For example, Horne Francis and Rankine could be very influential players this year because they can separate themselves within their line more than players on other lines can. But depending on where the cash cows fall I might start Brayshaw and Green instead, also knowing they will probably give me more early points. Where as the role that Brayshaw and Green play could be played by half a dozen other players.
The second image is of players who are still in consideration and might be needed depending how things play out. They are in order of preference within their main position.

View attachment 82465

View attachment 82467
I probably won't start Bont and Gawn due to age and price. I'm hoping to get the same output for less spend from other players.
Bont's AF score declined quite a lot last year which I find to be a better indicator of general output.

I didn't realise Bont was 30.

Interesting tables, agree with a lot of these rankings.

 

[freowho]

I didn't realise Bont was 30.

Interesting tables, agree with a lot of these rankings.

30 this year. The age is how old they will be in 2025.

 

[Ironhawk]

30 this year. The age is how old they will be in 2025.

Got it. He will still be 29 for the whole season though, as his birthday is in November. Not that it makes a lot of difference, I just start getting hesitant about picking players once they hit their 30's, and didn't have Bont in that list.

 

[Shannon]

Amazing analysis @freowho, much kudos

Just on Bont, he is the most reliable VC/Capt option every week & is so durable - rarely misses a game/ can play through niggles.

Average of 126.4 last year & 129.7 the previous year - to me he is the modern day GAJ. Just has the perfect SC game & champion data love him.

No early bye & just 1 bye overall in round 12 - that ticks another box for me when looking at super premiums.

First 4 games are v North, Collingwood, Carlton & Freo

Last 3 v North :- 123,157 + 169

Last 3 v Coll :- 186,123 +125

Last 3 v Carl :- 108, 112 + 105

Last 3 v Freo :- 162, 102 + 114 (scored 182 4th last game v Freo btw)

So his record v the teams he plays to start the season is excellent, Carlton the only one that is slighty unders.

 

[Santoz]

The first image is my non rookie power rankings at the moment. I don't follow the rookies closely enough to make a list and will wait for preseason games. It's in order of how influential I think a player could be. Ability to make cash, provide value, stability, captains scores, take advantage of byes or separate themselves from others on their line.
It doesn't necessarily mean they get picked in that order.
For example, Horne Francis and Rankine could be very influential players this year because they can separate themselves within their line more than players on other lines can. But depending on where the cash cows fall I might start Brayshaw and Green instead, also knowing they will probably give me more early points. Where as the role that Brayshaw and Green play could be played by half a dozen other players.
The second image is of players who are still in consideration and might be needed depending how things play out. They are in order of preference within their main position.

View attachment 82465

View attachment 82467
I probably won't start Bont and Gawn due to age and price. I'm hoping to get the same output for less spend from other players.
Bont's AF score declined quite a lot last year which I find to be a better indicator of general output.

This table has been valuable in showing me the headache I'll have come Round 12 with 5 starters out and not owning Bont or JHF, who I'll have to look to get in after the round.

It's also highlighted to me how important having Daicos and Flanders will be for balance throughout the rest of the byes.

Finally, Nic Martin & Merrett may be early upgrade targets after their first bye to again help with balance throughout the bye rounds.

 

[bluesbrothers]

Curious to hear what people are expecting out of Callum Mills. I know he has averaged over 110 twice, but that was playing pure mid I'm pretty sure. Got moved around a lot more the next year and dropped down to an 87 ave (included a 4). Came back in the back end last year and didn't score great either. Has the new coach suggested where he will play him yet? I haven't selected him at this stage, and not sure if I'm being a little irrational on his scoring potential.