Discussion 2025: Super Early SC Planning Thread - gutsroy team picker #526
- Thread starter freowho
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I don't love either pick.
Have Peatling and Cumming both added to the mix, neither has scored well with Crouch in the side.
I expect Laird stays at HB and I think he's basically fair priced but Cumming could impact that negatively. If he gets DEF that's a nice security blanket though but it's not a reason to start him unless you'd start him as a MID only.
Dawson can bounce back maybe but his scoring with Crouch is a genuine concern and have to think Peatling is more of the same in that regard. Does Rankine go through there also? I doubt he kicks as poorly as last year, that was an aberration for a beautiful kick so there's upside on that issue.
I guess the question is which one do you think 120 is more likely from? Likely going to need 110 at a minimum from either of them based on last year as 110 was top 14 cutoff but 115 was top 8. Both have proven they can do those numbers but can they get back to it? Again, Crouch wasn't there when they were good.
Both are very much on my watchlist as starting picks to see how preseason shapes up and what their roles are.
Have Peatling and Cumming both added to the mix, neither has scored well with Crouch in the side.
I expect Laird stays at HB and I think he's basically fair priced but Cumming could impact that negatively. If he gets DEF that's a nice security blanket though but it's not a reason to start him unless you'd start him as a MID only.
Dawson can bounce back maybe but his scoring with Crouch is a genuine concern and have to think Peatling is more of the same in that regard. Does Rankine go through there also? I doubt he kicks as poorly as last year, that was an aberration for a beautiful kick so there's upside on that issue.
I guess the question is which one do you think 120 is more likely from? Likely going to need 110 at a minimum from either of them based on last year as 110 was top 14 cutoff but 115 was top 8. Both have proven they can do those numbers but can they get back to it? Again, Crouch wasn't there when they were good.
Both are very much on my watchlist as starting picks to see how preseason shapes up and what their roles are.
According to the latest HS podcast, here are the Top 20 owned players (team picker):
Bailey Smith (81%)
Caleb Daniel (77%)
Jack Macrae (70%)
Levi Ashcroft (67%)
Jason Horne-Francis (66%)
Tristan Xerri (66%)
Jagga Smith (66%)
Bo Allan (65%)
Saad El-Hawli (64%)
Keidean Coleman (64%)
Sid Draper (62%)
Harry Sheezel (61%)
Nick Daicos (58%)
Marcus Bontempelli (57%)
Tobie Travaglia (53%)
Elijah Hewett (53%)
Josh Smillie (52%)
Callum Mills (49%)
Clayton Oliver (44%)
Isaac Kako (43%)
Bailey Smith (81%)
Caleb Daniel (77%)
Jack Macrae (70%)
Levi Ashcroft (67%)
Jason Horne-Francis (66%)
Tristan Xerri (66%)
Jagga Smith (66%)
Bo Allan (65%)
Saad El-Hawli (64%)
Keidean Coleman (64%)
Sid Draper (62%)
Harry Sheezel (61%)
Nick Daicos (58%)
Marcus Bontempelli (57%)
Tobie Travaglia (53%)
Elijah Hewett (53%)
Josh Smillie (52%)
Callum Mills (49%)
Clayton Oliver (44%)
Isaac Kako (43%)
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Have been thinking a lot on the idea of running very light in the forward line with JHF (F1) and Caleb Daniel (F2). I have serious doubts on Macrae and Smith reaching the heights we are hoping for, but those ownership numbers will make it very difficult not to select them. A lot of the talk around Macrae is that he wasn't given a chance last year, but maybe there was a reason for this (other than Bevo being Bevo). Has hit 30 now, and some players can fall away quickly. Smith has just come off an ACL, has had many other issues in his career so far, has only ave over 91 once, and has moved to a new team, and has two byes. Not exactly priced unbelievably low either. Of the two I would definitely lean towards Macrae as he has proven himself in the past. Of course this only works if enough rookie priced players make themselves available, but certainly opens up the ability to run deeper in the backline and midfield. In a year where the foward line scoring seems like the weakest line anyway, could give a good advantage to start with more premiums across the other lines. Also very unlikely that any of the forwards are going to reach a price point that is out of reach similar to Flanders, Heeney, and Zorko last year. Preseason games might change my whole thinking of course, but anyone else contemplating something similar?
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Surprised Philippou not on this list.
Four I am currently not running with
Xerri - hard to know if he is underpriced or overpriced. The R12 bye and potentially value options in TDK, Darcy and Flynn keeping me away
JHF - will probably be in the top few forwards, but just not seeing value in the price. Also seeing a number of viable forward rookies. Plus the R12 bye means I think he can wait until after his bye
Sheezel- change in role. Does he play more forward/mid? Plus R12 bye. Potentially he’s the one of the R12 bye players that might eventually tempt me, but for now no.
Naicos - the R3 bye. Will try to make him an early upgrade. Just don’t think I will start with him.
It might seem I am overly sensitive to the byes. Possibly. But it does seem that we will end up with very similar players in our teams, so it’s maybe not a case of if you have them, but when.
Four I am currently not running with
Xerri - hard to know if he is underpriced or overpriced. The R12 bye and potentially value options in TDK, Darcy and Flynn keeping me away
JHF - will probably be in the top few forwards, but just not seeing value in the price. Also seeing a number of viable forward rookies. Plus the R12 bye means I think he can wait until after his bye
Sheezel- change in role. Does he play more forward/mid? Plus R12 bye. Potentially he’s the one of the R12 bye players that might eventually tempt me, but for now no.
Naicos - the R3 bye. Will try to make him an early upgrade. Just don’t think I will start with him.
It might seem I am overly sensitive to the byes. Possibly. But it does seem that we will end up with very similar players in our teams, so it’s maybe not a case of if you have them, but when.
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I'm not too keen on Smith and JHF to start. JHF is clearly F1 but his price isn't really ever going to get out of reach without an injury and can be one less premo taken into that packed bye. If I'm not picking Smith then I'm doubling up on risk taking the money to another line and going against the safety of numbers.
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It's an interesting discussion regarding the forwards this year. I, for one, am interested to hear what's everyone's expectations about the scoring line, ie: what is expected from F1 down to F6 in completed teams.
We've lost Flanders, Zorko and Heeney who were by far the outstanding scorers with averages of 119, 110 and 117 respectively. I can't see any of the current candidates reaching those heights. If I look at the next 6 highest averages from last year then they range from 98 to 87 with Moore, Jackson, Hogan, Brett Daniels, Cameron and Caldwell filling those spots.
Would I be correct in assuming that the range of 90-100 would be the keeper score required on that line? Of course, subject to role changes and breakouts.
We've lost Flanders, Zorko and Heeney who were by far the outstanding scorers with averages of 119, 110 and 117 respectively. I can't see any of the current candidates reaching those heights. If I look at the next 6 highest averages from last year then they range from 98 to 87 with Moore, Jackson, Hogan, Brett Daniels, Cameron and Caldwell filling those spots.
Would I be correct in assuming that the range of 90-100 would be the keeper score required on that line? Of course, subject to role changes and breakouts.