Discussion 2025: Super Early SC Planning Thread - gutsroy team picker #526

[Post Nut Clarity]

Definitely, but Doc has become very tempting.

Yeah, I’d be leaning towards Doc as well! I know his been training with the mids but with Newman out, it wouldn’t surprise me if we opted to use his experience down back now!

 

[Juzzo]

Is JFK playing?

I'm not too keen on Smith and JFH to start. JFH is clearly F1 but his price isn't really ever going to get out of reach without an injury and can be one less premo taken into that packed bye. If I'm not picking Smith then I'm doubling up on risk taking the money to another line and going against the safety of numbers.

 

[Under The Dome]

Is JFK playing?

Right letters wrong order

 

[wogitalia]

Have been thinking a lot on the idea of running very light in the forward line with JHF (F1) and Caleb Daniel (F2). I have serious doubts on Macrae and Smith reaching the heights we are hoping for, but those ownership numbers will make it very difficult not to select them. A lot of the talk around Macrae is that he wasn't given a chance last year, but maybe there was a reason for this (other than Bevo being Bevo). Has hit 30 now, and some players can fall away quickly. Smith has just come off an ACL, has had many other issues in his career so far, has only ave over 91 once, and has moved to a new team, and has two byes. Not exactly priced unbelievably low either. Of the two I would definitely lean towards Macrae as he has proven himself in the past. Of course this only works if enough rookie priced players make themselves available, but certainly opens up the ability to run deeper in the backline and midfield. In a year where the foward line scoring seems like the weakest line anyway, could give a good advantage to start with more premiums across the other lines. Also very unlikely that any of the forwards are going to reach a price point that is out of reach similar to Flanders, Heeney, and Zorko last year. Preseason games might change my whole thinking of course, but anyone else contemplating something similar?

Complete opposite for me. The value there is just irresistible given how low the keeper threshold is up forward.

Looking at the top 15 starting forwards:

JHF - Definitely has upside but loaded midfield to get more minutes in, especially for an extremely one way runner.
Moore - Has hit just about as high as anyone in his role ever manages, maybe some upside in a side that is getting stronger but also a role that tends to throw up a few down games which makes upgrade plausible.
Rankine - Can argue either way on him, great bye and terrible durability/brain more or less cancel out.
Jackson - Same as Rankine only it's an inverse where it's Darcy's terrible durability that you're backing. Hard to make the case he's not overpriced if Darcy is there though but also at an age where you expect young KP types to actually progress, we often forget how far ahead of the curve he has been.
Hogan - Exceptional season last year on freakishly high goal kicking accuracy, reversion to the mean seems probably.
Daniels - Exceptional season durability wise for him. Could theoretically push a bit higher but same sort of role as Moore so would think that's towards his high end target.
McKay - Strong season but in line with what you'd expect.
Cameron - Solid average, has been better but age profile suggests the downward trend is probably to continue.
ANB - New team, wild range of possible outcomes here. Definitely could rise if role was great in preseason.
Treacy - Young KPF who has developed well, similar to Hogan, freakishly high goal accuracy pads him, so will likely decline in that area so needs improvement elsewhere. Still, KPF in the last decade rarely go past 100.
Waterman - See Treacy only even more of a career outlier type season.
Curnow - Underpriced on his best after injury found its way back into his life. Still seems 100 would be on his high end outcome.
Baker - Like ANB, has a couple of potential roles that would be juicy, still even if he played as a pure mid, I think 105 is the high end expectation.
Miers - Like Moore, hard role to be consistent and not really shown a midfield role is on the cards.
Keays - Will likely tag and thus is about the right price.

So basically of those 15 I'd say you could break into 2 rough categories:

105+ Possible - JHF, Rankine, Jackson & Baker
<100 ceiling - The rest

You could probably break that <100 into a second group of "likely <90", imo.

So all that basically says to me that the current premium cut off of 90 is only going vertical if one of two things happen, guys from outside the top 15 go moon or heavy position changes. There aren't any very obvious 100+ forward changes right now. Maybe Heeney, Rozee or Sheezel looking through but wouldn't bet on any. There will be some but not expecting huge names.

So the likely outcome is that you can probably have 3-4 guys at 90+ if you paid the right price for them as keepers. I would say that if more than 2 of the 105+ possible guys did it I'd be fairly surprised at this point in time.

Which leaves us to the value picks...

Starting at 16th onward:

Wood - Has averaged 90+. Least upside so needs to go higher than some of the others.
Darcy - Not my personal pick but big talent.
Greene - Multiple seasons at 90+, albeit as a forward has only ever scraped in. r0 hurts here given he's not likely to go big unless he's playing mid.
Rayner - Not mine but did finish last year pretty well.
Bolton - Decent case can be made.
Kennedy - Depending on the role, ditto.
Macdonald - Another who can have a case made.
Pickett - Case could be made. ANB role now opened up, who takes it? Chandler also worth a mention here.
Macrae - Obvious case with a perfect bye. Last year and his rookie year the only ones under 94 in his career. The question is whether he was Bevoed or there's something more sinister to Bevo suddenly freezing him out a season and a half ago when he was one of the best mids in the league.
Smith - Twice 90+, Geelong have an excellent record of let's call it "rehabilitating" players.
Graham - What will the role be?
Thilthorpe - Immense potential here.
Williams - Newman injury, I doubt he's the choice but who knows.
Lukosius - Where will they play him? Been a mid 80s or better type as a defender.
JUH - Top talent at the age he could break out a bit.
Watson - Serious talent.
Rachele - How will they use him? Can he get back to being a potential star?
Parker - Role dependent but as a mid, he's right up there.
DBJ - Does he replace Houston? I doubt it but he's a strong scorer off HB.
Stringer - New team, contract chasing.
Sanders - Kid is a stud, does Bevo unleash him?
Phillipou - Monster finish to last year after finally getting to play midfield.
Allen - Season from hell, does he bounce back, another immense talent.
Daniel - If he's at HB, will be pretty much a lock at that price.
Hobbs - Another top talent held back so far.

There's a few other guys with the potential but when picking any of the above, they only need to be realistic chances at 90 and they can work.

I'm genuinely considering picking a couple as mids because I think the value here is pretty extreme and it's heightened by so much of it also not being r0 neutered. Only really Smith of the guys that are most selected have the r0 factor, albeit a lot in the 12/13 byes still.

I personally think a very good case can be made that 5 of the top 6 forwards, before position changes, could come from that midprice group. All of Parker, Daniel, Macrae, Smith, Williams, Bolton, Greene and Kennedy have best seasons that would have them as a top 4 starting forward. I wouldn't argue that a very good case can be made for none of them as well but, imo, the forwards with by far the lowest keeper cut off are the best place to chase value. A forward priced at 380k only needs to be 20 points better to be a keeper, defenders need 35, mids 40 and rucks 45 to realistically obtain the same result, that's a pretty huge margin of error variance.

Will almost certainly be a very unique strategy to go against it though, absolutely could work, but so gutsy. Also worth noting that if their bodies allow it, very decent chance that Lynch, SPP, Martin, Curtin and Spargo, all as FWD only could be among the very best rookie on-field options this year, which is going to make for some extremely interesting decisions. You either have to take some of those DPP value picks as MID/FLEX picks, not take them or field weaker rookies elsewhere and bench those guys. The rookie crop actually is a very good reason for why your strategy could work out very well. Normally you take midprice picks because the rookies are bad, this year has that weird mix of very good potential rookies and midpricers being taken as genuine premium options.

For mine what it makes very hard is justifying picking any of the premiums, even JHF who I do like as a potential breakout pick.

 

[KLo30]

Is the magic number this year 5379?

I've been using 5389 in my data.

 

[Manikato1]

Is JFK playing?

Absolutely!

"We choose to play SC in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and the others, too."

Apologies to JFK and Ted Sorensen. And seven years after this speech they won it too.

 

[Under The Dome]

Complete opposite for me. The value there is just irresistible given how low the keeper threshold is up forward.

Looking at the top 15 starting forwards:

JHF - Definitely has upside but loaded midfield to get more minutes in, especially for an extremely one way runner.
Moore - Has hit just about as high as anyone in his role ever manages, maybe some upside in a side that is getting stronger but also a role that tends to throw up a few down games which makes upgrade plausible.
Rankine - Can argue either way on him, great bye and terrible durability/brain more or less cancel out.
Jackson - Same as Rankine only it's an inverse where it's Darcy's terrible durability that you're backing. Hard to make the case he's not overpriced if Darcy is there though but also at an age where you expect young KP types to actually progress, we often forget how far ahead of the curve he has been.
Hogan - Exceptional season last year on freakishly high goal kicking accuracy, reversion to the mean seems probably.
Daniels - Exceptional season durability wise for him. Could theoretically push a bit higher but same sort of role as Moore so would think that's towards his high end target.
McKay - Strong season but in line with what you'd expect.
Cameron - Solid average, has been better but age profile suggests the downward trend is probably to continue.
ANB - New team, wild range of possible outcomes here. Definitely could rise if role was great in preseason.
Treacy - Young KPF who has developed well, similar to Hogan, freakishly high goal accuracy pads him, so will likely decline in that area so needs improvement elsewhere. Still, KPF in the last decade rarely go past 100.
Waterman - See Treacy only even more of a career outlier type season.
Curnow - Underpriced on his best after injury found its way back into his life. Still seems 100 would be on his high end outcome.
Baker - Like ANB, has a couple of potential roles that would be juicy, still even if he played as a pure mid, I think 105 is the high end expectation.
Miers - Like Moore, hard role to be consistent and not really shown a midfield role is on the cards.
Keays - Will likely tag and thus is about the right price.

So basically of those 15 I'd say you could break into 2 rough categories:

105+ Possible - JHF, Rankine, Jackson & Baker
<100 ceiling - The rest

You could probably break that <100 into a second group of "likely <90", imo.

So all that basically says to me that the current premium cut off of 90 is only going vertical if one of two things happen, guys from outside the top 15 go moon or heavy position changes. There aren't any very obvious 100+ forward changes right now. Maybe Heeney, Rozee or Sheezel looking through but wouldn't bet on any. There will be some but not expecting huge names.

So the likely outcome is that you can probably have 3-4 guys at 90+ if you paid the right price for them as keepers. I would say that if more than 2 of the 105+ possible guys did it I'd be fairly surprised at this point in time.

Which leaves us to the value picks...

Starting at 16th onward:

Wood - Has averaged 90+. Least upside so needs to go higher than some of the others.
Darcy - Not my personal pick but big talent.
Greene - Multiple seasons at 90+, albeit as a forward has only ever scraped in. r0 hurts here given he's not likely to go big unless he's playing mid.
Rayner - Not mine but did finish last year pretty well.
Bolton - Decent case can be made.
Kennedy - Depending on the role, ditto.
Macdonald - Another who can have a case made.
Pickett - Case could be made. ANB role now opened up, who takes it? Chandler also worth a mention here.
Macrae - Obvious case with a perfect bye. Last year and his rookie year the only ones under 94 in his career. The question is whether he was Bevoed or there's something more sinister to Bevo suddenly freezing him out a season and a half ago when he was one of the best mids in the league.
Smith - Twice 90+, Geelong have an excellent record of let's call it "rehabilitating" players.
Graham - What will the role be?
Thilthorpe - Immense potential here.
Williams - Newman injury, I doubt he's the choice but who knows.
Lukosius - Where will they play him? Been a mid 80s or better type as a defender.
JUH - Top talent at the age he could break out a bit.
Watson - Serious talent.
Rachele - How will they use him? Can he get back to being a potential star?
Parker - Role dependent but as a mid, he's right up there.
DBJ - Does he replace Houston? I doubt it but he's a strong scorer off HB.
Stringer - New team, contract chasing.
Sanders - Kid is a stud, does Bevo unleash him?
Phillipou - Monster finish to last year after finally getting to play midfield.
Allen - Season from hell, does he bounce back, another immense talent.
Daniel - If he's at HB, will be pretty much a lock at that price.
Hobbs - Another top talent held back so far.

There's a few other guys with the potential but when picking any of the above, they only need to be realistic chances at 90 and they can work.

I'm genuinely considering picking a couple as mids because I think the value here is pretty extreme and it's heightened by so much of it also not being r0 neutered. Only really Smith of the guys that are most selected have the r0 factor, albeit a lot in the 12/13 byes still.

I personally think a very good case can be made that 5 of the top 6 forwards, before position changes, could come from that midprice group. All of Parker, Daniel, Macrae, Smith, Williams, Bolton, Greene and Kennedy have best seasons that would have them as a top 4 starting forward. I wouldn't argue that a very good case can be made for none of them as well but, imo, the forwards with by far the lowest keeper cut off are the best place to chase value. A forward priced at 380k only needs to be 20 points better to be a keeper, defenders need 35, mids 40 and rucks 45 to realistically obtain the same result, that's a pretty huge margin of error variance.

Will almost certainly be a very unique strategy to go against it though, absolutely could work, but so gutsy. Also worth noting that if their bodies allow it, very decent chance that Lynch, SPP, Martin, Curtin and Spargo, all as FWD only could be among the very best rookie on-field options this year, which is going to make for some extremely interesting decisions. You either have to take some of those DPP value picks as MID/FLEX picks, not take them or field weaker rookies elsewhere and bench those guys. The rookie crop actually is a very good reason for why your strategy could work out very well. Normally you take midprice picks because the rookies are bad, this year has that weird mix of very good potential rookies and midpricers being taken as genuine premium options.

For mine what it makes very hard is justifying picking any of the premiums, even JHF who I do like as a potential breakout pick.

I like the DBJ shout and Port has just recruited small forwards with SPP coming back aswell.

 

[Baglimit]

It's an interesting discussion regarding the forwards this year. I, for one, am interested to hear what's everyone's expectations about the scoring line, ie: what is expected from F1 down to F6 in completed teams.

We've lost Flanders, Zorko and Heeney who were by far the outstanding scorers with averages of 119, 110 and 117 respectively. I can't see any of the current candidates reaching those heights. If I look at the next 6 highest averages from last year then they range from 98 to 87 with Moore, Jackson, Hogan, Brett Daniels, Cameron and Caldwell filling those spots.

Would I be correct in assuming that the range of 90-100 would be the keeper score required on that line? Of course, subject to role changes and breakouts.

Absolutely

 

[bluesbrothers]

Complete opposite for me. The value there is just irresistible given how low the keeper threshold is up forward.

Looking at the top 15 starting forwards:

JHF - Definitely has upside but loaded midfield to get more minutes in, especially for an extremely one way runner.
Moore - Has hit just about as high as anyone in his role ever manages, maybe some upside in a side that is getting stronger but also a role that tends to throw up a few down games which makes upgrade plausible.
Rankine - Can argue either way on him, great bye and terrible durability/brain more or less cancel out.
Jackson - Same as Rankine only it's an inverse where it's Darcy's terrible durability that you're backing. Hard to make the case he's not overpriced if Darcy is there though but also at an age where you expect young KP types to actually progress, we often forget how far ahead of the curve he has been.
Hogan - Exceptional season last year on freakishly high goal kicking accuracy, reversion to the mean seems probably.
Daniels - Exceptional season durability wise for him. Could theoretically push a bit higher but same sort of role as Moore so would think that's towards his high end target.
McKay - Strong season but in line with what you'd expect.
Cameron - Solid average, has been better but age profile suggests the downward trend is probably to continue.
ANB - New team, wild range of possible outcomes here. Definitely could rise if role was great in preseason.
Treacy - Young KPF who has developed well, similar to Hogan, freakishly high goal accuracy pads him, so will likely decline in that area so needs improvement elsewhere. Still, KPF in the last decade rarely go past 100.
Waterman - See Treacy only even more of a career outlier type season.
Curnow - Underpriced on his best after injury found its way back into his life. Still seems 100 would be on his high end outcome.
Baker - Like ANB, has a couple of potential roles that would be juicy, still even if he played as a pure mid, I think 105 is the high end expectation.
Miers - Like Moore, hard role to be consistent and not really shown a midfield role is on the cards.
Keays - Will likely tag and thus is about the right price.

So basically of those 15 I'd say you could break into 2 rough categories:

105+ Possible - JHF, Rankine, Jackson & Baker
<100 ceiling - The rest

You could probably break that <100 into a second group of "likely <90", imo.

So all that basically says to me that the current premium cut off of 90 is only going vertical if one of two things happen, guys from outside the top 15 go moon or heavy position changes. There aren't any very obvious 100+ forward changes right now. Maybe Heeney, Rozee or Sheezel looking through but wouldn't bet on any. There will be some but not expecting huge names.

So the likely outcome is that you can probably have 3-4 guys at 90+ if you paid the right price for them as keepers. I would say that if more than 2 of the 105+ possible guys did it I'd be fairly surprised at this point in time.

Which leaves us to the value picks...

Starting at 16th onward:

Wood - Has averaged 90+. Least upside so needs to go higher than some of the others.
Darcy - Not my personal pick but big talent.
Greene - Multiple seasons at 90+, albeit as a forward has only ever scraped in. r0 hurts here given he's not likely to go big unless he's playing mid.
Rayner - Not mine but did finish last year pretty well.
Bolton - Decent case can be made.
Kennedy - Depending on the role, ditto.
Macdonald - Another who can have a case made.
Pickett - Case could be made. ANB role now opened up, who takes it? Chandler also worth a mention here.
Macrae - Obvious case with a perfect bye. Last year and his rookie year the only ones under 94 in his career. The question is whether he was Bevoed or there's something more sinister to Bevo suddenly freezing him out a season and a half ago when he was one of the best mids in the league.
Smith - Twice 90+, Geelong have an excellent record of let's call it "rehabilitating" players.
Graham - What will the role be?
Thilthorpe - Immense potential here.
Williams - Newman injury, I doubt he's the choice but who knows.
Lukosius - Where will they play him? Been a mid 80s or better type as a defender.
JUH - Top talent at the age he could break out a bit.
Watson - Serious talent.
Rachele - How will they use him? Can he get back to being a potential star?
Parker - Role dependent but as a mid, he's right up there.
DBJ - Does he replace Houston? I doubt it but he's a strong scorer off HB.
Stringer - New team, contract chasing.
Sanders - Kid is a stud, does Bevo unleash him?
Phillipou - Monster finish to last year after finally getting to play midfield.
Allen - Season from hell, does he bounce back, another immense talent.
Daniel - If he's at HB, will be pretty much a lock at that price.
Hobbs - Another top talent held back so far.

There's a few other guys with the potential but when picking any of the above, they only need to be realistic chances at 90 and they can work.

I'm genuinely considering picking a couple as mids because I think the value here is pretty extreme and it's heightened by so much of it also not being r0 neutered. Only really Smith of the guys that are most selected have the r0 factor, albeit a lot in the 12/13 byes still.

I personally think a very good case can be made that 5 of the top 6 forwards, before position changes, could come from that midprice group. All of Parker, Daniel, Macrae, Smith, Williams, Bolton, Greene and Kennedy have best seasons that would have them as a top 4 starting forward. I wouldn't argue that a very good case can be made for none of them as well but, imo, the forwards with by far the lowest keeper cut off are the best place to chase value. A forward priced at 380k only needs to be 20 points better to be a keeper, defenders need 35, mids 40 and rucks 45 to realistically obtain the same result, that's a pretty huge margin of error variance.

Will almost certainly be a very unique strategy to go against it though, absolutely could work, but so gutsy. Also worth noting that if their bodies allow it, very decent chance that Lynch, SPP, Martin, Curtin and Spargo, all as FWD only could be among the very best rookie on-field options this year, which is going to make for some extremely interesting decisions. You either have to take some of those DPP value picks as MID/FLEX picks, not take them or field weaker rookies elsewhere and bench those guys. The rookie crop actually is a very good reason for why your strategy could work out very well. Normally you take midprice picks because the rookies are bad, this year has that weird mix of very good potential rookies and midpricers being taken as genuine premium options.

For mine what it makes very hard is justifying picking any of the premiums, even JHF who I do like as a potential breakout pick.

Firstly, great write up!!
In all my teams up until the last week I have had had Macrae and Smith in the FWDs along with JHF and CDaniel (and currently I only have Macrae and CDaniel). I agree that you definitely don't need to ave as high to be a premium pick, and that it opens the door for so many of those mid priced players being viable. But that is a lot of options to choose from and be wrong. If you can start the guys like SSP, Lynch etc, and they can average even 70, the points you are able to gain on everyone else by having an extra couple of mid/def premiums could be very important. Very few of the FWDs are going to get out of range price wise, so it is also the ideal line to have to be upgrading the most. It does mean you need to nail the premium picks on other lines though, as you have less spots available for getting the best premiums through upgrade season. I will almost certainly change back and forth on this throughout the preseason. The team looks so much stronger though with 4 mid and back premiums vs the 2 and 3 I had before trying the structure. It will be hard to bet against the ownership counts however, which I expect will only increase from what they already are.

 

[Vicwood]

Have been thinking a lot on the idea of running very light in the forward line with JHF (F1) and Caleb Daniel (F2). I have serious doubts on Macrae and Smith reaching the heights we are hoping for, but those ownership numbers will make it very difficult not to select them. A lot of the talk around Macrae is that he wasn't given a chance last year, but maybe there was a reason for this (other than Bevo being Bevo). Has hit 30 now, and some players can fall away quickly. Smith has just come off an ACL, has had many other issues in his career so far, has only ave over 91 once, and has moved to a new team, and has two byes. Not exactly priced unbelievably low either. Of the two I would definitely lean towards Macrae as he has proven himself in the past. Of course this only works if enough rookie priced players make themselves available, but certainly opens up the ability to run deeper in the backline and midfield. In a year where the foward line scoring seems like the weakest line anyway, could give a good advantage to start with more premiums across the other lines. Also very unlikely that any of the forwards are going to reach a price point that is out of reach similar to Flanders, Heeney, and Zorko last year. Preseason games might change my whole thinking of course, but anyone else contemplating something similar?

Agreed, Macrae over Smith. ACL are difficult to come back from, i am sure one of the member has some stats on this.??

Geelong have a lot of potential players that can run through the midfield, Saints less. Currently i am preferring Holmes over Smith as i believe Holmes is a lock for a full time mid role this year, and can line up in DEF?MID status for SC.

F1 JFH or Rankine leaning JFH as Rankine finds ways to get injured with his all or nothing approach.
F2 Macrae is a must have, as i cannot see anything else but full time on ball.
F3 Daniels if confirmed HB role. Early mail is yes. But also a risky option as he is moving into a new team and the ROOS have several options at HB. Pre Season will tell us more.

Now not much talk on Riley Sanders from WB. Could be one to keep a eye on during pre-season Games.

 

[Vicwood]

Definitely, but Doc has become very tempting.

Yes indeed........

 

[OnTopBar]

Firstly, great write up!!
In all my teams up until the last week I have had had Macrae and Smith in the FWDs along with JHF and CDaniel (and currently I only have Macrae and CDaniel). I agree that you definitely don't need to ave as high to be a premium pick, and that it opens the door for so many of those mid priced players being viable. But that is a lot of options to choose from and be wrong. If you can start the guys like SSP, Lynch etc, and they can average even 70, the points you are able to gain on everyone else by having an extra couple of mid/def premiums could be very important. Very few of the FWDs are going to get out of range price wise, so it is also the ideal line to have to be upgrading the most. It does mean you need to nail the premium picks on other lines though, as you have less spots available for getting the best premiums through upgrade season. I will almost certainly change back and forth on this throughout the preseason. The team looks so much stronger though with 4 mid and back premiums vs the 2 and 3 I had before trying the structure. It will be hard to bet against the ownership counts however, which I expect will only increase from what they already are.

The thing that I'm finding difficult is that the midfield is stacked with rookies that look like they'll debut early, whether their production is worthwhile when stacked up with the high starting prices is something yet to be gauged. All of Jagga, Lalor, Smillie, Lindsay, FOS, Ashcroft and Draper (if his back is ok) could be viable starting picks, throw in Lombard and Bo Allen as well.

Combine that with the value picks like Oliver, Peatling, Docherty and maybe Cumming then there's not much room for 4 premiums, just Bont at this stage for me.

Like everyone I guess, I like chasing value and there's also a few in the backline with Mills, Rivers and Coleman (if fit) who's currently sitting at D5, just leaving room for 2 starting premos. I'm aiming for 'set n forget' rucks this year trying to eliminate the trade (points) merry-go-round of the last couple of years.

My major concern is that I only have 2 starting premos in the mids and there's question marks over one of those (Oliver) meaning that I have to focus most, if not all, of my upgrades on that line. Of course, mids are the most expensive and will take the most amount of trades when upgrading. What I'm going to need are stepping stones, Peatling fits that bill and Cumming might as well. Some of those forward value plays might have to be used as well given that replacing premos on that line should be the easiest.

My current forward line below gives me a bit of scope and flexibility, Macrae should get mid status as well.

 

[freowho]

The thing that I'm finding difficult is that the midfield is stacked with rookies that look like they'll debut early, whether their production is worthwhile when stacked up with the high starting prices is something yet to be gauged. All of Jagga, Lalor, Smillie, Lindsay, FOS, Ashcroft and Draper (if his back is ok) could be viable starting picks, throw in Lombard and Bo Allen as well.

Combine that with the value picks like Oliver, Peatling, Docherty and maybe Cumming then there's not much room for 4 premiums, just Bont at this stage for me.

Like everyone I guess, I like chasing value and there's also a few in the backline with Mills, Rivers and Coleman (if fit) who's currently sitting at D5, just leaving room for 2 starting premos. I'm aiming for 'set n forget' rucks this year trying to eliminate the trade (points) merry-go-round of the last couple of years.

My major concern is that I only have 2 starting premos in the mids and there's question marks over one of those (Oliver) meaning that I have to focus most, if not all, of my upgrades on that line. Of course, mids are the most expensive and will take the most amount of trades when upgrading. What I'm going to need are stepping stones, Peatling fits that bill and Cumming might as well. Some of those forward value plays might have to be used as well given that replacing premos on that line should be the easiest.

My current forward line below gives me a bit of scope and flexibility, Macrae should get mid status as well.

View attachment 82940

Massive jump to AFL and not many rookies score well with forward roles, and not many get enough midfield minutes. I'd be surprised if all the high priced rookies people are talking up will be worthwhile. If they have backline roles than that is way more tempting.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

There are other rookies that have been in the system a while, people may have forgotten about.

 

[Connoisseur]

Agreed, Macrae over Smith. ACL are difficult to come back from, i am sure one of the member has some stats on this.??.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661816110398976001

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5482352/

 

[Toothless Tigers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1661816110398976001

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5482352/

What is a pass mark scoring wise for:

 

[donnybuang]

Have been thinking a lot on the idea of running very light in the forward line with JHF (F1) and Caleb Daniel (F2). I have serious doubts on Macrae and Smith reaching the heights we are hoping for, but those ownership numbers will make it very difficult not to select them. A lot of the talk around Macrae is that he wasn't given a chance last year, but maybe there was a reason for this (other than Bevo being Bevo). Has hit 30 now, and some players can fall away quickly. Smith has just come off an ACL, has had many other issues in his career so far, has only ave over 91 once, and has moved to a new team, and has two byes. Not exactly priced unbelievably low either. Of the two I would definitely lean towards Macrae as he has proven himself in the past. Of course this only works if enough rookie priced players make themselves available, but certainly opens up the ability to run deeper in the backline and midfield. In a year where the foward line scoring seems like the weakest line anyway, could give a good advantage to start with more premiums across the other lines. Also very unlikely that any of the forwards are going to reach a price point that is out of reach similar to Flanders, Heeney, and Zorko last year. Preseason games might change my whole thinking of course, but anyone else contemplating something similar?

I wouldn't be making JHF that guy. All his high scores happened when Rozee was injured. He's probably overpriced a touch, unless Butters or Rozee go down.

 

[bluesbrothers]

The thing that I'm finding difficult is that the midfield is stacked with rookies that look like they'll debut early, whether their production is worthwhile when stacked up with the high starting prices is something yet to be gauged. All of Jagga, Lalor, Smillie, Lindsay, FOS, Ashcroft and Draper (if his back is ok) could be viable starting picks, throw in Lombard and Bo Allen as well.

Combine that with the value picks like Oliver, Peatling, Docherty and maybe Cumming then there's not much room for 4 premiums, just Bont at this stage for me.

Like everyone I guess, I like chasing value and there's also a few in the backline with Mills, Rivers and Coleman (if fit) who's currently sitting at D5, just leaving room for 2 starting premos. I'm aiming for 'set n forget' rucks this year trying to eliminate the trade (points) merry-go-round of the last couple of years.

My major concern is that I only have 2 starting premos in the mids and there's question marks over one of those (Oliver) meaning that I have to focus most, if not all, of my upgrades on that line. Of course, mids are the most expensive and will take the most amount of trades when upgrading. What I'm going to need are stepping stones, Peatling fits that bill and Cumming might as well. Some of those forward value plays might have to be used as well given that replacing premos on that line should be the easiest.

My current forward line below gives me a bit of scope and flexibility, Macrae should get mid status as well.

View attachment 82940

I have to say I have almost always preferred a guns and rookies approach, and often try to avoid midpricers unless they are an absolute obvious pick. I too was sitting with only Bont and Butters as premiums in the mids for a long time, and the high price rookies taking up the other spots. I worry how many of those rookies are really going to give us what we need for cash generation. Currently with 4 premiums in the mids, I still have room for 7 of them which is more than enough and allows to be a little more picky with who I think can score enough/be subbed the least. For example, I have left Ashcroft out for now, as he has been recovering from shoulder surgery the whole preseason so far, and is going into a team that just won the GF and has a few players returning from injury to go into that team. In terms of midpricers in the midfield, it is very up in the air in terms of scoring, injury and position in their teams. Will Oliver get back to his premium scoring? Obviously if he looks good in preseason he is a walk up start. Docherty is getting older, and has been injured so so many times. Cumming was injured every five minutes at the giants, and Peatling, while showing glimpses last year, wasn't able to secure his position in the GWS side as a full time mid. Does he have limitations that prevented him or was it the coach being stubborn. I always find there are so many question marks over most midpricers that lead me to ignore them. Of course some will work and I would never tell someone not to go with one, or all of them. And the more you got right, the better position you would be in. It's hard sometimes to look at players and wonder how much of your own bias gets in the way of whether you should or shouldn't pick them. That's why discussions on them are so valuable and interesting.

 

[bluesbrothers]

I wouldn't be making JHF that guy. All his high scores happened when Rozee was injured. He's probably overpriced a touch, unless Butters or Rozee go down.

Possibly. There is talk that he plays a bit more mid this year with Rozee playing forward a bit more (though hard to tell if that is what is wanted by Port supporters, as opposed to what is being trained). Natural progression also comes in to play, making him the most likely to be the highest scoring FWD at this early stage. Add in the high ownership, and it's hard to ignore having him.

 

[OnTopBar]

Massive jump to AFL and not many rookies score well with forward roles, and not many get enough midfield minutes. I'd be surprised if all the high priced rookies people are talking up will be worthwhile. If they have backline roles than that is way more tempting.

Yep, there's quite a few that bear consideration for now though.

Jagga: A proper ball pig, but really just suited to a mid role, can be effective forward. Whether there's a place for him in the midfield will be the question, Walsh will be over his hammy but I have concerns about whether his back will hold up for a full season, looks like Doc was training with the mids but should be moved back if the initial prognosis on Newman is as bad as it looks. Jagga did perform well against the bigger bodies in the magoos, but is still very slight, so might get knocked around too much.

Travaglia: Defence only, a real scrapper, but should have a good role off HB

Lindsay: Quite possibly the best kick in the draft and is very well suited to a HB role, there might be room for him with Rivers moving to a more mid focused role.

Bo Allen: Def/Mid, played as a defensive mid in the WAFL with high tackle numbers which should give a good base to his scoring, has a fair bit of toe and might be used off HB but could see midfield minutes.

Lalor: Another with an exceptional defensive game, will rotate mid and forward. Has been training with the mids and providing he's fit enough should debut early with some opportunity.

Smillie: A bit like Lalor but not as strong defensively and more suited to a mid/def rotation, again training with the mids.

The others also look to have forward roles and probably not a high enough production to warrant their prices.