Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

Do you start a $669k Gawn?

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So have I got this right for Bailey Smith (Holmes as well) + Coleman & Mills with the Round 3 Bye

Round 0 - doesn't count for SC
Round 1 - plays
Round 2 - plays
Round 3 - BYE

so his price changes before Round 4

so either start him or wait until Round 4 to bring him in (part of correction trades or is that just a waste ?)

Estimate 90+90+50 = 230

Start all 3 of Coleman , Mills & Smith could be down approximately 120 points in Round 3 🤔

Find rookies to score equivalent probably not trading them out though after Round 3

Start a rookie though (instead of Coleman , Mills , Smith ) 50 + 50 + 50 = 150 so worse off

Money saved wouldn't turn 2 rookies into2 extra starting premiums
Round 3 is definitely one to keep an eye on, but the impact is not quite as significant thanks to the flex addition and best 18.

Assuming the difference between starting Coleman, Mills and Smith vs someone starting 3 other player is the only difference between teams, and that you are able to still field 23 on field with rookies, then you are only down points if the 3 players the other team started aren't in the bottom 5 scores.

For simplicity sake, let's say your top 15 scores are the same.

Team A (with Coleman et al) scores 70, 70, 70, 60, 60, 60, 50, 30 from the other 8 players, meaning with the bottom 5 scores dropping off it's 210 points.

Team B (without) scores 90, 80, 70, 70, 70, 60, 60, 50 from the other 8 players, meaning once the bottom 5 scores drop off it's 240 points.

Because you get to drop 5 scores, the odds are your actual worst scores included and the other teams worst scores won't be far apart, with the likelihood being they are just dropping off better quality bottom 5 scores.

Very simplistic take and there are variables depending on who the other team selects instead of those 3 (1 premium and 2 rookies would be slightly different) but the overall impact will be the same. My view is in the early bye rounds, it's the high ceiling scores that separate the pack, not the bottom end scores. So while there could be impact and it's worth assessing, I don't think it's a straight up deal breaker vs other teams if it means you have a better quality overall squad.
 
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Round 3 is definitely one to keep an eye on, but the impact is not quite as significant thanks to the flex addition and best 18.

Assuming the difference between starting Coleman, Mills and Smith vs someone starting 3 other player is the only difference between teams, and that you are able to still field 23 on field with rookies, then you are only down points if the 3 players the other team started aren't in the bottom 5 scores.

For simplicity sake, let's say your top 15 scores are the same.

Team A (with Coleman et al) scores 70, 70, 70, 60, 60, 60, 50, 30 from the other 8 players, meaning with the bottom 5 scores dropping off it's 210 points.

Team B (without) scores 90, 80, 70, 70, 70, 60, 60, 50 from the other 8 players, meaning once the bottom 5 scores drop off it's 240 points.

Because you get to drop 5 scores, the odds are your actual worst scores included and the other teams worst scores won't be far apart, with the likelihood being they are just dropping off better quality bottom 5 scores.

Very simplistic take and there are variables depending on who the other team selects instead of those 3 (1 premium and 2 rookies would be slightly different) but the overall impact will be the same. My view is in the early bye rounds, it's the high ceiling scores that separate the pack, not the bottom end scores. So while there could be impact and it's worth assessing, I don't think it's a straight up deal breaker vs other teams if it means you have a better quality overall squad.
I am glad that's the simplistic take 😀 hate to work through the complicated one.

I think I almost understand it

So Team A (with Coleman , Mills and Smith) would be relying on player 19 , 20 & 21 as cover/scores essentially for the Round 3 Bye.

Nice to get some luck from D7 & D8 that round as a possible bonus

Hopefully Travaglia , B Allan & El-Hawli are all still playing in Round 4

Probably easier to just start all 3 (assuming Coleman is right to go from the start)

Monitor Holmes as a early upgrade , looks like Geelong's second Bye is Round 16
 
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So have I got this right for Bailey Smith (Holmes as well) + Coleman & Mills with the Round 3 Bye

Round 0 - doesn't count for SC
Round 1 - plays
Round 2 - plays
Round 3 - BYE

so his price changes before Round 4

so either start him or wait until Round 4 to bring him in (part of correction trades or is that just a waste ?)

Estimate 90+90+50 = 230

Start all 3 of Coleman , Mills & Smith could be down approximately 120 points in Round 3 🤔

Find rookies to score equivalent probably not trading them out though after Round 3

Start a rookie though (instead of Coleman , Mills , Smith ) 50 + 50 + 50 = 150 so worse off

Money saved wouldn't turn 2 rookies into2 extra starting premiums
As far as I understand the round 0 scores count towards BE's and are 'live', meaning a price rise in round 2 for those players with round 3 & 4 byes. Very handy to get a look at rookies and MP's that fit in that bracket.

I don't think that the points loss from a MP is as great as we think it might be. If you're starting 5 rookies (including flex) then you would assume that those 5 scores would drop off (excluding unforeseen injuries/late outs). There's also the ability to loop across 3 lines effectively giving 26 scores where you can drop (possibly) up to 8 scores. I would think that there's a distinct possibility that an 80/85 could be the 18th scorer. Of course this scenario is with no players having a bye.

One player missing will see the 19th best score, two players missing will see the 20th best score and so. I had a bit of a look last year and found that the 4th highest rookie score (on average) was around 70 for the early part of the 2023 season, obviously this can change year to year depending on the quality of the rookies, those scores were incrementally better up to the best rookie scores of 90+

You could well find that the points loss is more likely 20 + 15 + 10 = 45 rather than the 120 - 150
 
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Round 3 is definitely one to keep an eye on, but the impact is not quite as significant thanks to the flex addition and best 18.

Very simplistic take and there are variables depending on who the other team selects instead of those 3 (1 premium and 2 rookies would be slightly different) but the overall impact will be the same. My view is in the early bye rounds, it's the high ceiling scores that separate the pack, not the bottom end scores. So while there could be impact and it's worth assessing, I don't think it's a straight up deal breaker vs other teams if it means you have a better quality overall squad.
This was very evident last season, those teams that started with the high end players and by virtue of that, had a weaker lower end, got off to a good start.

Having less early byes and also finishing in round 4 rather than round 6 might see that effect diminished.
 
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As far as I understand the round 0 scores count towards BE's and are 'live', meaning a price rise in round 2 for those players with round 3 & 4 byes. Very handy to get a look at rookies and MP's that fit in that bracket.

I don't think that the points loss from a MP is as great as we think it might be. If you're starting 5 rookies (including flex) then you would assume that those 5 scores would drop off (excluding unforeseen injuries/late outs). There's also the ability to loop across 3 lines effectively giving 26 scores where you can drop (possibly) up to 8 scores. I would think that there's a distinct possibility that an 80/85 could be the 18th scorer. Of course this scenario is with no players having a bye.

One player missing will see the 19th best score, two players missing will see the 20th best score and so. I had a bit of a look last year and found that the 4th highest rookie score (on average) was around 70 for the early part of the 2023 season, obviously this can change year to year depending on the quality of the rookies, those scores were incrementally better up to the best rookie scores of 90+

You could well find that the points loss is more likely 20 + 15 + 10 = 45 rather than the 120 - 150
So price rise in Round 2 does that mean before Round 2 starts or at the end of Round 2 ?

Confused on that one

I certainly don't think my starting side will only have 5 onfield rookies in it though so might need a re-think

So you are saying a starting side of 18 premium/mid pricers + 5 rookies ?

Do you consider the likes of Lynch & SPP as mid pricers or rookies ?

I probably have a core of 9 premiums , 6 mid pricers + Lynch & Powell-Pepper so might be on the right starting track

So if 4th was around 70 need to find out 5th , 6th , 7th , 8th etc etc

But agree for Round 3

Smith gets replaced by onfield player 19
Mills gets replaced by onfield player 21
Coleman gets replaced by onfield player 22

+ possibly Ed Allan and J Martin missing as well

I was just using the three of them averaging 90 (maybe to high) so was thinking my rookie replacement for that round would be 50 each , so about a 120 loss
 
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Yeah, Lynch and PP as MP's.

Current iteration has 4 rookies, not sure about it yet, tried to structure things around all of the byes and there's good looping possibilities over the early byes

1737508871791.png
 
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As far as I understand the round 0 scores count towards BE's and are 'live', meaning a price rise in round 2 for those players with round 3 & 4 byes. Very handy to get a look at rookies and MP's that fit in that bracket.

I don't think that the points loss from a MP is as great as we think it might be. If you're starting 5 rookies (including flex) then you would assume that those 5 scores would drop off (excluding unforeseen injuries/late outs). There's also the ability to loop across 3 lines effectively giving 26 scores where you can drop (possibly) up to 8 scores. I would think that there's a distinct possibility that an 80/85 could be the 18th scorer. Of course this scenario is with no players having a bye.

One player missing will see the 19th best score, two players missing will see the 20th best score and so. I had a bit of a look last year and found that the 4th highest rookie score (on average) was around 70 for the early part of the 2023 season, obviously this can change year to year depending on the quality of the rookies, those scores were incrementally better up to the best rookie scores of 90+

You could well find that the points loss is more likely 20 + 15 + 10 = 45 rather than the 120 - 150
So just looking back at Daicos price from last season

It changed after the completion of Round 2.

So 3 games played (Round 0 , 1 & 2).

So looks like Coleman , Mills & Smith's price will change after Round 2 (assuming they all play the first 3 rounds) , then Round 3 Bye

Round zero , why not just make it Best 12 or 14 then allow for a complete reset of team (if we want to) for Round 1
 
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Guns n Rookies worked well in the early byes season and I went a little more in the MPM. Only started getting those points back after R6 at minimal intervals as the quality of second wave rookies backed up the GnR play.
 
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Guns n Rookies worked well in the early byes season and I went a little more in the MPM. Only started getting those points back after R6 at minimal intervals as the quality of second wave rookies backed up the GnR play.
What really helped the GnR teams were that the guns came out firing but more so, the top rookies did the same. I went with a few MP's as well and can remember doing quite well until those GnR teams overtook me, mainly because of the looped, higher scoring rookies.

I'm not sure that the same will apply this year though, I've gone pretty heavy (so far) with MP's although the old addage of impacted cash gen is bopping around.
 
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I think a lot of people are over thinking the Flex position and how it works, basically its like every round now uses a bye round type of scoring where for a bye rounds you get best 18 but could have more than 18 playing.

Its the same now for all normal rounds where its best 22 and you could have 23 playing.
Same rules apply for Captains, Emg, looping etc.

Noting if your Flex doesn't play you have no emg to take their place which if why people have mentioned having someone reliable to play there.
Secondly having a person that plays late in the round and is dpp can be helpful if mid round there is a late out and you need to make some trades as it gives how more flexibility around your trade. ie you want to trade out a mid for a back but have no d/m dpp you could move your flex to the mid spot if they have mid status, then a back to flex then trade in a back.
 
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Likelihood of every AFL club’s prospective round one debutants rated

With all clubs back for the new year and Opening Round under two months away, we look at every team’s possible round one debutants and how likely they are to play.

6 min read
January 22, 2025 - 5:00AM

Clubs have returned from their December breaks and have been quick to launch into match simulations to start the new year.

With less than 50 days until the first bounce of the 2025 home-and-away season, teams now have a clearer picture of what their respective best 23 looks like, and who is likely a chance to make a debut.

Our experts have watched training closely this pre-season to see which bolters are ready to make the step up and debut at the start of the campaign.

ADELAIDE
The hometown draftee and top prospect Sid Draper has turned heads so far this pre-season. The No.4 selection was snapped up by the Crows after being firmly in the conversation for the top pick taken, and Draper’s explosive tendencies will give Adelaide a different look in the centre square. Tyler Welsh is likely start his career in the SANFL.

Verdict: Lock him in

BRISBANE
Levi Ashcroft was touted as the best player in the draft class throughout his under-18s campaign, and while he was a father-son selection to the reigning premiers there is an expectation he slots straight into their best 22. Ashcroft has been impressive during the summer, and while he’s unlikely to walk straight into the starting midfield, the No.5 pick should feature in Opening Round. Sam Marshall may be forced to begin his career in the VFL, while key forward Ty Gallop is a project player.

Verdict: Lock him in

CARLTON
Jagga Smith has declared he wants to join skipper Patrick Cripps and star Sam Walsh in Carlton’s first centre bounce of 2025, and the new Blue has looked the goods during match simulation to start the calendar year. Ben and Lucas Camporeale have both been strong in the pre-season and could play early, while Harry O’Farrell is a long term prospect.

Verdict: Lock him in

COLLINGWOOD
Harry Demattia has impressed during his first season in the black and white despite not earning a senior berth, and he is the most likely uncapped player to break through after a wretched run with injuries. He recently signed an extension at the Pies to take him through until 2027. Joel Cochran joined the Magpies after the Swans chose not to bid on the Academy player, and has shown flashes during the limited match play work he’s completed. A dashing tall defender, Cochran has traits similar to fellow Sydney academy junior Nick Blakey and he models his game on Hawthorn’s Josh Weddle. But an early debut seems unlikely despite Collingwood needing to fill a key defensive hole.

Verdict: Unlikely

ESSENDON
Essendon is a chance to have multiple debutants to kick off the season, with Isaac Kako already one of the club’s best small forwards, and last year’s mid-season draftee Saad El-Hawli lauded for his ball use. El-Hawli has featured heavily in the Bombers’ stronger side during match simulations and is the main distributor off half back. Angus Clarke is also pushing for an early debut, impressing in the running drills, while Kayle Gerreyn, Rhys Unwin and Zak Johnson could all feature at some point in 2025 but are unlikely to start the season in the senior team.

Verdict: Lock him in

FREMANTLE
The Dockers are still toying with how the back six looks in 2025, with a rebounding half back position to pair with Jordan Clark currently open for the taking. While he was drafted as a midfielder, Murphy Reid has spent some time down back during the summer. His class by hand and foot was impressive during his draft campaign and he’s continued to impress since arriving in Perth. A midfield role may be harder to crack into for Reid.

Verdict: In the air

GEELONG

The Cats do not have a standout debutant prospect heading into 2025, but second-year ruck Mitch Edwards is the likeliest of the bunch. Toby Conway is yet to join in on main training completely as he battles injuries, there are question marks over Rhys Stanley’s production as the stand-alone ruck, and Mark Blicavs and Sam De Koning should be played in defence to sure up the club’s key back stocks. Edwards has impressed in the pre-season and looks to be the next man up.

Verdict: Unlikely

GOLD COAST
Academy star Leo Lombard won a VFL premiership with the Suns as a 16 year old, and while the Suns are stocked in the midfield he has shown his ability to play forward. Not only that, he is as tough as they come and has been a constant performer in his first summer with the AFL program. He’ll start his career forward and pinch hit in the midfield, but he could also be prone to play as the starting substitute.
Verdict: In the air

GWS GIANTS
The Giants shocked the AFL when they drafted Cody Angove in the first round, but it is not likely fans see him in Opening Round. Oliver Hannaford was another draftee that could snag an early debut, but the versatile James Leake is impressing in western Sydney and could get a nod as the Giants try to fill the voids left by departing players.

Verdict: In the air

HAWTHORN
Midfield bull Cody Anderson has started his Hawthorn career almost exclusively up forward during training drills and match simulations this summer, bringing his elite tackling pressure to the forward 50. It’s a tough forward line to break into, with Dylan Moore, Connor Macdonald, Jack Ginnivan and Nick Watson the Hawks’ preferred small forwards.

Verdict: Unlikely

MELBOURNE
Melbourne left the first night of the draft with two star midfielders in Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay, with both showing signs early in their first summers at the club. Lindsay is spending time off half back and on the outside of the midfield contests, looking like a potential replacement for the role Angus Brayshaw vacated when he retired at the start of last season.

Verdict: In the air

NORTH MELBOURNE
Plenty of attention has been on No.2 draftee Finn O’Sullivan, but North Melbourne’s most impressive draftee so far has arguably been No.57 pick Luke Urquhart. The Western Australian added to what is now deep midfield stocks at the Roos, but Urquhart’s mature frame and hard-nosed pressure has impressed track watchers this summer. He is prone to blazing away with his kicks and not lowering his eyes, but he could play forward to start his career and get games early.

Verdict: In the air

PORT ADELAIDE
First round forward Joe Berry didn’t take long to impress his Power teammates, dominating off the flank in a bid for a round 1 debut. He was compared to Robbie Gray in his draft year, says he idolises the Port Adelaide legend, and even replicated a clutch goal from the boundary line to win a match simulation drill that had fans reminiscing of Gray’s genius around the sticks.

Verdict: Lock him in
 
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RICHMOND
Josh Smillie has been one of the few draftees to feature heavily in match simulations early in their Richmond careers, with the tall midfielder impressive with his movement and ball use. With such a rapid turnover of their list, the Tigers are likely to blood a few players in round 1, with No.1 draftee Sam Lalor another option if healthy. Key forwards Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong and Tom Sims will be fighting out for a position to pair with Tom Lynch, while Luke Trainor would be hopeful of an early game with Noah Balta suspended.

Verdict: Lock him in

ST KILDA
Tobie Travaglia was brought in as a rebounding defender with plenty of class by foot, but the top-10 pick is already eyeing a midfield role in 2025. Travaglia has worked closely with Jack Steele so far this pre-season and has impressed throughout the summer. Alix Tauru has battled injury so far this pre-season and would be unlikely to feature from the start of the campaign, while mature ruck Harry Boyd could pair with Rowan Marshall as the club looks to bolster its key forward stocks.

Verdict: Lock him in

SYDNEY
It will be hard to crack into the grand finalist’s side, but mature age recruit Riley Bice has been impressive so far this summer and looks to be the best chance at the Swans. Bice is a smart ball user and will play off half back or potentially on a wing at Sydney, and while Sydney is stacked in both those positions Bice has been a constant performer this off-season.

Verdict: In the air

WEST COAST
Bo Allan has been the obvious choice as a bigger bodied draftee, but Hamish Davis looks ready-made as a product as well. Both Allan and Davis have big frames that are ready for the rigours of an AFL campaign, with Allan pushing for a role in the midfield and Davis likely to start up forward. Allan would have a slight edge over Davis in the race for a debut. In one memorable passage of play, Allan stormed through traffic and hit Jake Waterman lace out.

Verdict: Lock him in

WESTERN BULLDOGS
Lachie Jaques is a classy rebounding defender from the Geelong Falcons and could help fill a hole off half back for the Western Bulldogs. Caleb Daniel had an inconsistent season in 2024 and was traded in the off-season, but with Ed Richards tipped for more midfield minutes it opens up another distributing role in defence. He spent some time during a match simulation up forward and kicked two goals, showing some versatility. Cooper Hynes could also play midfield or forward early as a bigger body, but Jaques is an early candidate after impressing with his smart ball use.

Verdict: In the air
 
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I am glad that's the simplistic take 😀 hate to work through the complicated one.

I think I almost understand it

So Team A (with Coleman , Mills and Smith) would be relying on player 19 , 20 & 21 as cover/scores essentially for the Round 3 Bye.

Nice to get some luck from D7 & D8 that round as a possible bonus

Hopefully Travaglia , Allan & El-Hawli are all still playing in Round 4

Probably easier to just start all 3 (assuming Coleman is right to go from the start)

Monitor Holmes as a early upgrade , looks like Geelong's second Bye is Round 16
Yeah the byes change the equation a bit, because it's not that you have a mid pricer replaced by a rookie, but you have them replaced by your best 3 of your bottom 5 rookie scores, which should be better than a non bye round.
 
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This was very evident last season, those teams that started with the high end players and by virtue of that, had a weaker lower end, got off to a good start.

Having less early byes and also finishing in round 4 rather than round 6 might see that effect diminished.
Yeah it will be interesting to see how it goes with the slightly different bye pattern. I suspect the benefit will still be there but maybe not as pronounced.
 
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If you have 21 players playing plus the flex it just takes all 22 scores.

If you have 22 playing plus the flex the lowest score of the 23 will drop out.
If you have a player out, what takes precedence - the emergency or the flex? I'm assuming it's the emergency?
 
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If you have a player out, what takes precedence - the emergency or the flex? I'm assuming it's the emergency?
The flex doesn't cover a missing player, it is an extra position on field that allows for your worst score to drop off. So if you have a player on field that doesn't play, you either get an E score if you have cover for that spot, or that donut becomes your default 23rd score.

The flex is purely a positional thing, not a replacement score or any other fancy thing.

Separate to the flex position is a new rule that makes your team "best 22" in rounds that don't have a bye. This means in those rounds, you will lose your lowest score regardless of where it is or how it happens.
 

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Great discussions all.

My view is if you are worried that your Flex is a late out (but has no EMG) then at the start of every round, look for the early games for players you have in the non-Flex position, then substitute that player to the flex position, so you know that your Flex has played.

For example only, first or second game of the round involves FREO that you may have (B: Ryan, Serong, Darcy, Shai).

If your Flex is:
  1. Flex FWD (Paul Vander Haar) - substitute Vander Haar to FWD and Shai to Flex
  2. Flex MID (Alan Ezard) - substitute Ezard to Mid and Serong to Flex
  3. Flex DEF (Anthony Daniher) - substitute Daniher to DEF and Ryan to Flex
  4. Flex RUC (Paul Salmon) - substitute Salmon to Ruck and Darcy to Flex.
This way if any of the original Flex players (Vander Haar, Ezard, Daniher, Salmon) are out, it doesn't matter as your substituted FLEX has been played. BTW the Essendon players are there just to illustrate the positional flex players :)
 
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https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/st...h/news-story/96230216357ace1c3fdb8349bce07165

Captain Max Gawn and star midfielder Christian Petracca were back on light duties, but it was ball magnet Clayton Oliver who stole the show at Melbourne’s Wednesday morning training session.

Oliver participated in the full session and trained superbly as he looks to put a disastrous 2024 campaign behind him.

The star midfielder was unable to find his best footy last year after a pre-season plagued by off-field issues, but all signs point towards him becoming one of the competition’s most dominant players once more.


It was during match simulation where Oliver came into his own and showed he is ready and raring to go for a monster 2025 season.

Oliver was dominant through the midfield finding plenty of the footy. He was strong around the coalface, regularly shovelling the ball out to his outside runners.

But it was his work rate that really caught the eye. Oliver worked hard all session getting to as many contests as possible and running hard so that he could become another option for teammates.

He’s not known for his ball use, but Oliver rarely wasted a possession at Gosch’s Paddock on Wednesday, often finding forwards on a lead with neat kicks inside 50.

He tackled strongly and corralled when necessary, but it was the multiple diving smothers that were most impressive, Oliver literally throwing everything he could at the footy.

His defensive work rate was high, but he was just as impressive from an offensive standpoint. Oliver ran hard for handball receives and linked up with teammates, often getting multiple touches in a chain. He sold some candy late in match simulation, busted a handful of tackles, and was more than happy to tuck the ball under his arm, have a bounce and provide some run and carry.
Screen Shot 2025-01-22 at 12.29.28 pm.png

Oliver hard to resist now, track observers saying it is very noticeable how much weight he has lost also.
 
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https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/st...h/news-story/96230216357ace1c3fdb8349bce07165

Captain Max Gawn and star midfielder Christian Petracca were back on light duties, but it was ball magnet Clayton Oliver who stole the show at Melbourne’s Wednesday morning training session.

Oliver participated in the full session and trained superbly as he looks to put a disastrous 2024 campaign behind him.

The star midfielder was unable to find his best footy last year after a pre-season plagued by off-field issues, but all signs point towards him becoming one of the competition’s most dominant players once more.


It was during match simulation where Oliver came into his own and showed he is ready and raring to go for a monster 2025 season.

Oliver was dominant through the midfield finding plenty of the footy. He was strong around the coalface, regularly shovelling the ball out to his outside runners.

But it was his work rate that really caught the eye. Oliver worked hard all session getting to as many contests as possible and running hard so that he could become another option for teammates.

He’s not known for his ball use, but Oliver rarely wasted a possession at Gosch’s Paddock on Wednesday, often finding forwards on a lead with neat kicks inside 50.

He tackled strongly and corralled when necessary, but it was the multiple diving smothers that were most impressive, Oliver literally throwing everything he could at the footy.

His defensive work rate was high, but he was just as impressive from an offensive standpoint. Oliver ran hard for handball receives and linked up with teammates, often getting multiple touches in a chain. He sold some candy late in match simulation, busted a handful of tackles, and was more than happy to tuck the ball under his arm, have a bounce and provide some run and carry.
View attachment 83120

Oliver hard to resist now, track observers saying it is very noticeable how much weight he has lost also.
Gawn did his duties for the day ;)
 
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