Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN
- Thread starter freowho
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Wow! You could argue there are zero premium mids there … obviously one if Oliver bounces back.
I think @Impromptu started a no premium mid side one year!
I think @Impromptu started a no premium mid side one year!
See my other posts for a bit more info, but the short answer is probably “no”.
If you have a premo in the flex position, you’ve either (1) shifted an existing premium there from another line, or (2) raided other lines from a cash perspective to get a premium in the flex spot. So you’re forgoing points elsewhere to increase the flex spot’s scoring.
In scenario (1) it’s literally point for point, ie no net change.
In scenario (2) it depends on how well you’ve saved the cash on other lines and how well you’ve spent it in the flex spot.
[The main caveat is that you don’t want your flex player to be a late out due to the lack of an E on that line.]
The scoring distribution (high ceiling, high floor or whatever) of the player that you put in the flex spot isn’t particularly significant. You’re still just adding a 23rd player, and dropping the lowest scorer. You could put a volatile KPF type like Lynch at F6, and a premium forward like Moore in the flex spot, or you could switch the two around, and you’ll score exactly the same.
It’s about who is on field, not who is in the flex spot.
If you have a premo in the flex position, you’ve either (1) shifted an existing premium there from another line, or (2) raided other lines from a cash perspective to get a premium in the flex spot. So you’re forgoing points elsewhere to increase the flex spot’s scoring.
In scenario (1) it’s literally point for point, ie no net change.
In scenario (2) it depends on how well you’ve saved the cash on other lines and how well you’ve spent it in the flex spot.
[The main caveat is that you don’t want your flex player to be a late out due to the lack of an E on that line.]
The scoring distribution (high ceiling, high floor or whatever) of the player that you put in the flex spot isn’t particularly significant. You’re still just adding a 23rd player, and dropping the lowest scorer. You could put a volatile KPF type like Lynch at F6, and a premium forward like Moore in the flex spot, or you could switch the two around, and you’ll score exactly the same.
It’s about who is on field, not who is in the flex spot.
I think I’ve said something along those lines at some point, but the more and more I think on the flex (and take some learnings from bbl) the more I don’t think there is one right answer. Instead it’ll be around what the objectives are for a particular round.
Keeping it open for a trade later in the round will be useful early where the target might be a rookie but need to see if they’re named. Also handy if you are set on a trade out from an early game but aren’t sold on the position you’re trading in to. This will be less important later in the season when there are more DPPs, but early it’ll be good if it means you can get a SPP from any line.
One thing I will say around the no E for flex is that this is very unlikely to be an issue. It’ll be very rare that the flex spot is the last player you have, and so there should always be the option to swap them with a player from another line to unlock an E score. Where it could be problematic is when you’ve set up to take loops already, but that comes back to the whole objective thing. If you’re taking loops all over you probably just lock a safe player in the flex spot when you can!
For me the absolute value of the flex position is in the options it unlocks. Each round will have different benefits so I’d encourage everyone to keep an open mind when assessing how they’d use the flex spot!
Keeping it open for a trade later in the round will be useful early where the target might be a rookie but need to see if they’re named. Also handy if you are set on a trade out from an early game but aren’t sold on the position you’re trading in to. This will be less important later in the season when there are more DPPs, but early it’ll be good if it means you can get a SPP from any line.
One thing I will say around the no E for flex is that this is very unlikely to be an issue. It’ll be very rare that the flex spot is the last player you have, and so there should always be the option to swap them with a player from another line to unlock an E score. Where it could be problematic is when you’ve set up to take loops already, but that comes back to the whole objective thing. If you’re taking loops all over you probably just lock a safe player in the flex spot when you can!
For me the absolute value of the flex position is in the options it unlocks. Each round will have different benefits so I’d encourage everyone to keep an open mind when assessing how they’d use the flex spot!
I think your last line here is key and one that is tripping up people early. The player in the flex spot is less important that what it does to your overall 23.
If look back at my first 6-8 rounds last year, there was almost always 1 truly poor score I wish I could have replaced. We don’t have extra cash which means if we built our 2024 SC structure we’d have enough left for maybe a mid pricer. Assuming that mid pricer scores reasonably, I’d still only be dropping that poor score I had each week! So I don’t think we should be getting exotic with the flex in the first 3rd of the year.
It’ll be the back end of the year where we see the benefits of a 3rd ruck vs 9th mid, or the ability to use a 24th premium to give extra depth to cover.
Personally my early strategy will probably be to focus on cash gen by being able to go 1 deeper on a line that has the best rookies, or get the 31st best rookie I missed on last year.
If look back at my first 6-8 rounds last year, there was almost always 1 truly poor score I wish I could have replaced. We don’t have extra cash which means if we built our 2024 SC structure we’d have enough left for maybe a mid pricer. Assuming that mid pricer scores reasonably, I’d still only be dropping that poor score I had each week! So I don’t think we should be getting exotic with the flex in the first 3rd of the year.
It’ll be the back end of the year where we see the benefits of a 3rd ruck vs 9th mid, or the ability to use a 24th premium to give extra depth to cover.
Personally my early strategy will probably be to focus on cash gen by being able to go 1 deeper on a line that has the best rookies, or get the 31st best rookie I missed on last year.
I'm less worried about it being a DPP player. There are so many bye rounds this year that there's going to be plenty of loop options. And in reality, other than a few rounds last year I usually had one player on my bench either injured, dropped or suspended that could be a loop. I also make sure I've got DPP potential across my lines anyway either on field or with rookies. Sure there's an occasion here and there where it's not the most ideal loop. But I don't see the need of having the DPP in the flex position when they could just be on field anyway as a DPP offering the same level of flexibility?
To me, the flex position, at least early on, gives you a chance to have an extra player from one line, ideally who will make bulk cash. And when Rucks are the obvious scoring line, I think that's where I'll go to begin with. An extra ruck over an extra DPP player feels like the easier choice for me - particularly with the bye structure and the likes of TDK/Xerri/English all sharing a bye and then Marshall and Darcy sharing one the following week. Currently thinking Xerri / Darcy and then have Flynn. All dependent upon him getting the No. 1 spot.
I agree with an earlier comment though - don't think there'll be a particular 'must do' strategy with the flex position and one week my thoughts might work - the next, your extra DPP will outperform.
To me, the flex position, at least early on, gives you a chance to have an extra player from one line, ideally who will make bulk cash. And when Rucks are the obvious scoring line, I think that's where I'll go to begin with. An extra ruck over an extra DPP player feels like the easier choice for me - particularly with the bye structure and the likes of TDK/Xerri/English all sharing a bye and then Marshall and Darcy sharing one the following week. Currently thinking Xerri / Darcy and then have Flynn. All dependent upon him getting the No. 1 spot.
I agree with an earlier comment though - don't think there'll be a particular 'must do' strategy with the flex position and one week my thoughts might work - the next, your extra DPP will outperform.
I'm not thinking loophole - the reason for flex is you get all the benefits and none of the uncertainty. Flex him in over a 50 scorer and he scores 30? That's fine. Someone scores 80 so you lock him in, but Lynch gets 160? You get it for free. And ultimately he's going to make some cash too, so you can offload him when appropriate instead of having cash locked up in someone you only get some of the time. Flex is perfect for those high variance players.
But again, only if he's fully fit through the preseason. Otherwise he's fairly pointless - he's $180k for a reason.
But again, only if he's fully fit through the preseason. Otherwise he's fairly pointless - he's $180k for a reason.
I can’t speak for everyone, but I would say to some extent, especially early in the season.
The main thing is to ensure that player isn’t a late out that you have zero cover for. Late outs are themselves quite rare, and for it to be a player you own, are relying on on field, and to have no ability to cover that spot, is a few hoops to jump through.
You can largely address that risk by picking someone who tends to play every game (a Merrett type)/isn’t under a cloud/doesnt play in the last game or two of the round, etc.
[In BBL, players miss for unexpected reasons more often, and there are fewer matches each round to pick a backup player from, so the risk of a late out you can’t cover is greater.]
Even if your flex player is a late out and you can’t or don’t do anything, it’s not the end of the world … you effectively get a 0 as your 23rd score, so it just means you don’t get to drop off the next worst score. This means the impact is less than if it was a typical uncovered late out (ie a donut).
The main thing is to ensure that player isn’t a late out that you have zero cover for. Late outs are themselves quite rare, and for it to be a player you own, are relying on on field, and to have no ability to cover that spot, is a few hoops to jump through.
You can largely address that risk by picking someone who tends to play every game (a Merrett type)/isn’t under a cloud/doesnt play in the last game or two of the round, etc.
[In BBL, players miss for unexpected reasons more often, and there are fewer matches each round to pick a backup player from, so the risk of a late out you can’t cover is greater.]
Even if your flex player is a late out and you can’t or don’t do anything, it’s not the end of the world … you effectively get a 0 as your 23rd score, so it just means you don’t get to drop off the next worst score. This means the impact is less than if it was a typical uncovered late out (ie a donut).
Take into account the Round 2-4 byes and Marshall moves up to 9th (4 mids , 3 rucks , 2 defenders)
Bontempelli 126.4
Gawn 124.1
Butters 120.4
Neale 119.9 Round 3 Bye
Xerri 119.9
Flanders 119.0 Round 2 Bye
Sheezel 118.0
Daicos 117.2 Round 3 Bye
Heeney 116.8 Round 3 Bye
Ryan 116.6
Treloar 116.6
Serong 115.7
Merrett 115.3 Round 4 Bye
Marshall 112.0
Dunkley 111.8 Round 3 Bye
End of the day rookies determine starting sides/structure
Bontempelli 126.4
Gawn 124.1
Butters 120.4
Neale 119.9 Round 3 Bye
Xerri 119.9
Flanders 119.0 Round 2 Bye
Sheezel 118.0
Daicos 117.2 Round 3 Bye
Heeney 116.8 Round 3 Bye
Ryan 116.6
Treloar 116.6
Serong 115.7
Merrett 115.3 Round 4 Bye
Marshall 112.0
Dunkley 111.8 Round 3 Bye
End of the day rookies determine starting sides/structure
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One thing to also consider with the flex position is that for 3 of the first 4 rounds you’ll drop 5 scores (being best 18). So a late out in that round is pretty irrelevant as you’ll still drop 4 other scores. From round 5 to the mid season byes we’ll be upgrading, and so having the freedom to take the best option or shuffle things around will be very helpful. This is why I don’t love the 3 premium ruck from found 1 plan - you have nowhere to go if things change across the early rounds..
Completely different formats
BBL is fixture based
AFL is trying to get to full premium ASAP
6 of the 9 BBL rounds had DGR's so may have been a case of having a DGR player as Flex.
Bowl only players are generally better than Bat only so allowed a extra Bowler only player onfield (I don't like comparing BBL to AFL but I guess the equivalent would be fielding a extra M or R @ Flex once at full premium as they are more than likely averaging higher than a D or F)
People certainly could have used their Flex as a VC especially if their first game of the double was the opening game of the round.
End of the day in AFL SC you are just getting 23 scores of which the best 22 count so hopefully it helps in those rounds where a premium unfortunately does get injured early.
BBL is fixture based
AFL is trying to get to full premium ASAP
6 of the 9 BBL rounds had DGR's so may have been a case of having a DGR player as Flex.
Bowl only players are generally better than Bat only so allowed a extra Bowler only player onfield (I don't like comparing BBL to AFL but I guess the equivalent would be fielding a extra M or R @ Flex once at full premium as they are more than likely averaging higher than a D or F)
People certainly could have used their Flex as a VC especially if their first game of the double was the opening game of the round.
End of the day in AFL SC you are just getting 23 scores of which the best 22 count so hopefully it helps in those rounds where a premium unfortunately does get injured early.