Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN
- Thread starter freowho
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Due to the Early bye for Ascroft.
Reid Cerra Ashcroft.
I am trying to convince myself this year could be a changing of the old Premo to the new crop of the Games MID field superstars. Even throw Day into the mix. My current midfield looks exposed unless this new batch of talent can do the job. Big Risk, as none of the GAMES top 10 MIDS from last season currently in the Line up.
Reid, enough has been written about him in the past 12 months. No chance he plays anywhere else but on ball. Another preseason nearly over and should be stronger with improved endurance. I am expecting a 15pts bump in pts and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes close to a 105+ average to the byes RD15. Jury still out on if to start him. Currently in my team.
Cerra, never really got going last year with annoying soft tissue injuries, with a strong preseason i expect him move towards his 2023 avg of 105+. Don't expect a tag at any point in the season. Currently in my starting line up.
Ashcroft, "superstar" I defiantly want a Lions Mid in the team straight after the early bye as the next bye is RD16 which is great. Great price point and again another one that was coming off injury last year, with a good preseason and absolute lock for RD4. Currently the decision who to start (BAZ LOCKED) Homes in DEF or Ashcroft. Currently Holmes as i believe he is keeper level this year. A sideway trade will be needed early to get Ashcroft into the team. Will go really close to top 10 MID status this year if fit.
Reid Cerra Ashcroft.
I am trying to convince myself this year could be a changing of the old Premo to the new crop of the Games MID field superstars. Even throw Day into the mix. My current midfield looks exposed unless this new batch of talent can do the job. Big Risk, as none of the GAMES top 10 MIDS from last season currently in the Line up.
Reid, enough has been written about him in the past 12 months. No chance he plays anywhere else but on ball. Another preseason nearly over and should be stronger with improved endurance. I am expecting a 15pts bump in pts and it wouldn't surprise me if he goes close to a 105+ average to the byes RD15. Jury still out on if to start him. Currently in my team.
Cerra, never really got going last year with annoying soft tissue injuries, with a strong preseason i expect him move towards his 2023 avg of 105+. Don't expect a tag at any point in the season. Currently in my starting line up.
Ashcroft, "superstar" I defiantly want a Lions Mid in the team straight after the early bye as the next bye is RD16 which is great. Great price point and again another one that was coming off injury last year, with a good preseason and absolute lock for RD4. Currently the decision who to start (BAZ LOCKED) Homes in DEF or Ashcroft. Currently Holmes as i believe he is keeper level this year. A sideway trade will be needed early to get Ashcroft into the team. Will go really close to top 10 MID status this year if fit.
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I agree. I can see a world where there are 20 midfielders in the 105-110 range, either a few busting into 110-115. The big question for me is how many we have 115 plus. I am seeing Bont as the genuine 120+ guy. Butters, Naicos and Merrett as genuine 115+. They all look fairly to perhaps slightly over priced. So how many, if any can you start? I think we will need to start at least 2-4 guys from that sea of 20. Oliver is probably one that can go 120 again, so well with the low starting price. so finding the other 3 might be again be just the value play. Who are the lowest priced guys you think can make 105. Not fully convinced Cerra has the durability or the capacity to be 105. Day has the skill, but also a question on durability. I like Ashcroft as the most likely, but whether he’s a start or a sideways trade. Reid is the hardest to guess. Bad team. Sometimes tries to do too much. Gives away a few frees. Can get sat on. Is it 2025 or 2026 when he is a must have? The other one not attracting as much attention is Young from Freo. I think he’s a real chance, but are there too many mouths to feed? And they did like him drifting forward.
I guess it comes down to where you set the bar for being a keeper.
Going on last years averages and this years availability then:
The 7th best player in Defence was Sinclair at 110
The 9th best Mid was Merrett at 115
The 3rd best ruck was Marshall at 112 with Xerri at 120 and Gawn at 124
The 7th best Forward was Mackay at 87
My worry with all of those picks is that you're getting players that are projected lower than M8, which will then require 1.5/2 trades each to upgrade them
Going on last years averages and this years availability then:
The 7th best player in Defence was Sinclair at 110
The 9th best Mid was Merrett at 115
The 3rd best ruck was Marshall at 112 with Xerri at 120 and Gawn at 124
The 7th best Forward was Mackay at 87
My worry with all of those picks is that you're getting players that are projected lower than M8, which will then require 1.5/2 trades each to upgrade them
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1. Cerra, only one I have confidence in that could be a top mid out of the 3 you listed. As long as he stays on the park he’ll score but only picking if he has a full uninterrupted pre season. Went to Qatar as well which has had mixed results for other players.
2. Ashcroft, has the bad bye and has been in the rehab group most of pre season. Should still be a fine pick.
3. Reid, only guy I haven’t considered or had a lot of thought about. Personal preference but I don’t really like picking players from bad teams, Yeo likely missing the start of the year probably won’t help him either. He’s a generational talent though so won’t surprise me if he went to another level.
Fwiw I think all of these could be great picks, just comes down to personal preference.
2. Ashcroft, has the bad bye and has been in the rehab group most of pre season. Should still be a fine pick.
3. Reid, only guy I haven’t considered or had a lot of thought about. Personal preference but I don’t really like picking players from bad teams, Yeo likely missing the start of the year probably won’t help him either. He’s a generational talent though so won’t surprise me if he went to another level.
Fwiw I think all of these could be great picks, just comes down to personal preference.
We've made a dedicated thread to collect and archive preseason training, match sime and games. This will make it easier to find the information as preseason ramps up to games.
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2025-preseason-training-match-sim-game-notes.5454/
In addition, the dedicated position threads have been created for 2025. Please keep discussion of players in these threads. There is no discussion in the Preseason Training, Match Sim & Game Notes thread, so that information can be easily found.
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2025-preseason-training-match-sim-game-notes.5454/
In addition, the dedicated position threads have been created for 2025. Please keep discussion of players in these threads. There is no discussion in the Preseason Training, Match Sim & Game Notes thread, so that information can be easily found.
Thanks for the feed back, currently want to have 3 of the 400k crop and for me oliver and day are locks. Just tossing up on the other 3 I've put a line threw parish. I'm leaning more towards reid atm, if it wasn't for all the rookies in the midfield i would be tempted to start all 5 off them.
It worked for me 6-7 years ago i started a lot of 400k players in coniglio marc murphy of the top off my head it really paid off. By round 5-6 i was actually ranked 1st in Australia that only lasted for a few weeks and a couple poor decision and dropped off. It feels like the same this year lots off value in that range.
It worked for me 6-7 years ago i started a lot of 400k players in coniglio marc murphy of the top off my head it really paid off. By round 5-6 i was actually ranked 1st in Australia that only lasted for a few weeks and a couple poor decision and dropped off. It feels like the same this year lots off value in that range.
Adding to this not much talk about Anderson from the Suns or Green from GWS, could be massive POD if you are willing to burn some trades early. Perryman from the Pies also will be on watch for role with DPP status. Seems to be many options this year across all lines. But history tells up more than half will not live up to expectations.
I currently thinking 6 sideway trades before RD 6 just to try and get some POD. Play the game of chance, bit of fun.
Sinclair Clark Holmes Perryman Mills
Anderson, Green, Reid, Ashcroft, Day, Oliver
Xerri Nank
Macrae Smith Phillipou Daniels
Flex Gawn- TDK if news come out of the Baggers camp that TDK will start as Solo RK
Bold text will be the Sideways trades. I am thinking this will mean missing those early rookie bolters.? But i am trying to avoid the expensive rookies. Early signs looks as if we may get (6) 119k to choose from for bench options.
Crazy thinking but goodness if they all fire.....
Thoughts.
I currently thinking 6 sideway trades before RD 6 just to try and get some POD. Play the game of chance, bit of fun.
Sinclair Clark Holmes Perryman Mills
Anderson, Green, Reid, Ashcroft, Day, Oliver
Xerri Nank
Macrae Smith Phillipou Daniels
Flex Gawn- TDK if news come out of the Baggers camp that TDK will start as Solo RK
Bold text will be the Sideways trades. I am thinking this will mean missing those early rookie bolters.? But i am trying to avoid the expensive rookies. Early signs looks as if we may get (6) 119k to choose from for bench options.
Crazy thinking but goodness if they all fire.....
Thoughts.
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Hey @Eagling - nice bit of analytical work there and good to see you leading the mid-pricer/value charge for season 2025.
It seems like we go thru this Guns V MPM every year & I imagine it will continue on forever.
I have generally gone for the mid-pricers but havent had any success, but I'm stubbornly going there again.
The starting squad is a unique point in the season.
Players from 2024 are basically priced at a parity value - using their 2024 average and the magic number.
Untried rookies are priced from a nominal average of about 36 ppg down to 22 ppg
So if all players play to their starting prices all coaches will all score the same..
But of course that nominal scoring wont happen!
I have a notion of free points - the points a player scores in excess of what you pay for.
ie If I pick Max Holmes at his starting price of $533K, I am effectively paying for 99 points.
Should he score 109, I am getting 10 points for free.
In my simplistic view then, the coach who can pick the players that produce the most free points will win**. -
I have tried to model this concept of free points in a comparative way between a straw-man Guns & Rookies squad against a straw-man Mid-Pricer line-up.
In doing so, I have had to make quite a few assumptions, so hopefully they stand up to scrutiny from the SCS gang.
This first panel sets out my starting assumptions..
It shows the straw-man prices I have assigned to each of my 3 players categories - these prices are averages.
Then I have designed 2 starting squads
- blue for an extreme Guns & Rookies line-up
- green for an extreme Mid-Pricer line-up
This next panel is a bit superfluous, but it moves into the realm of SC points & shows how those 2 squads would score (using a Magic# of 5389)- if the 23 scoring players were counted - you can see they are equivalent.
So to model what will happen with 8 bench players who dont contribute to the weekly score..
For simplicity, I'll ignore captains scores and the best 22 of 23 rule.
The G&R team will have 10 on-field rookies, the MP team will have 5 on-field rookies.
To further simplify things, I'm assuming the MP team has picked the best 5 rookies to field - so both sqauds have the same 5 tier1 rookies, but the G&R team is fielding 5 tier2 rookies.
Since my overall objective is to measure the notion of free points they are integral to this step.
I'm assuming Guns are fairly priced in both squads - no free points.
I'm assuming tier1 rookies will score at 70 ppg (37.5 free points)
Then I'm going to make a leap and say that the MP coach has picked players who can outscore their nominal starting value.
In my model - the only way that the G&R coach can keep up, is if their Tier2 rookies produce the same quantity of free points.
This is what looks like if the 12 mid-pricers in the MP squad go at 10 ppg above par - blue highlighted cell.
The MP squad of 23 will score a total of 1901 pts on these assumptions.
I have shown the G&R squad with the same score - but this will only be achieved if the the Tier2 rookies can generate an average 24 free points - (salmon highlighted cell) - thats a scoring at about 56 ppg.
This is the modelling if the Mid-pricers reach 15 free points.
This is getting very tough for the G&R team (on my assumptions) as then the tier2's are going at 68 ppg - so they are effectively equivalent to tier1's.
So - all things being equal and if all my assumptions are reasonable, it comes down to which of the free-point scenarios you think is more achievable? This final summary table distils everything down.
The first column shows the range of free points that the MP team might achieve.
The middle column is the number of free points the tier2 rookies in the G&R squad would need to keep up.
The third column is the ppg that goes with the column 2 free pts.
I'd reckon, the the tier2 rookies would be able to get low 60's - so the mid-pricers would need to have around 12 points of value.. so you probably need to get it up to around 15 free points.
** obviously the analysis is just for the static nature of the start - all sorts of other possibilities arise when trades come into play.
It seems like we go thru this Guns V MPM every year & I imagine it will continue on forever.
I have generally gone for the mid-pricers but havent had any success, but I'm stubbornly going there again.
The starting squad is a unique point in the season.
Players from 2024 are basically priced at a parity value - using their 2024 average and the magic number.
Untried rookies are priced from a nominal average of about 36 ppg down to 22 ppg
So if all players play to their starting prices all coaches will all score the same..
But of course that nominal scoring wont happen!
I have a notion of free points - the points a player scores in excess of what you pay for.
ie If I pick Max Holmes at his starting price of $533K, I am effectively paying for 99 points.
Should he score 109, I am getting 10 points for free.
In my simplistic view then, the coach who can pick the players that produce the most free points will win**. -
I have tried to model this concept of free points in a comparative way between a straw-man Guns & Rookies squad against a straw-man Mid-Pricer line-up.
In doing so, I have had to make quite a few assumptions, so hopefully they stand up to scrutiny from the SCS gang.
This first panel sets out my starting assumptions..
It shows the straw-man prices I have assigned to each of my 3 players categories - these prices are averages.
Then I have designed 2 starting squads
- blue for an extreme Guns & Rookies line-up
- green for an extreme Mid-Pricer line-up
This next panel is a bit superfluous, but it moves into the realm of SC points & shows how those 2 squads would score (using a Magic# of 5389)- if the 23 scoring players were counted - you can see they are equivalent.
So to model what will happen with 8 bench players who dont contribute to the weekly score..
For simplicity, I'll ignore captains scores and the best 22 of 23 rule.
The G&R team will have 10 on-field rookies, the MP team will have 5 on-field rookies.
To further simplify things, I'm assuming the MP team has picked the best 5 rookies to field - so both sqauds have the same 5 tier1 rookies, but the G&R team is fielding 5 tier2 rookies.
Since my overall objective is to measure the notion of free points they are integral to this step.
I'm assuming Guns are fairly priced in both squads - no free points.
I'm assuming tier1 rookies will score at 70 ppg (37.5 free points)
Then I'm going to make a leap and say that the MP coach has picked players who can outscore their nominal starting value.
In my model - the only way that the G&R coach can keep up, is if their Tier2 rookies produce the same quantity of free points.
This is what looks like if the 12 mid-pricers in the MP squad go at 10 ppg above par - blue highlighted cell.
The MP squad of 23 will score a total of 1901 pts on these assumptions.
I have shown the G&R squad with the same score - but this will only be achieved if the the Tier2 rookies can generate an average 24 free points - (salmon highlighted cell) - thats a scoring at about 56 ppg.
This is the modelling if the Mid-pricers reach 15 free points.
This is getting very tough for the G&R team (on my assumptions) as then the tier2's are going at 68 ppg - so they are effectively equivalent to tier1's.
So - all things being equal and if all my assumptions are reasonable, it comes down to which of the free-point scenarios you think is more achievable? This final summary table distils everything down.
The first column shows the range of free points that the MP team might achieve.
The middle column is the number of free points the tier2 rookies in the G&R squad would need to keep up.
The third column is the ppg that goes with the column 2 free pts.
I'd reckon, the the tier2 rookies would be able to get low 60's - so the mid-pricers would need to have around 12 points of value.. so you probably need to get it up to around 15 free points.
** obviously the analysis is just for the static nature of the start - all sorts of other possibilities arise when trades come into play.
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Very tough but would lean towards Cameron. Limited upside for Hogan in regards to his goal tally as you would expect a decline, so would rely on his involvement around the ground to increase or get close to Cameron’s unless Cameron becomes more of a stay at home forward. Would not consider either as starting selections due to the poor return on investment relative to what you can receive on other lines and all of the perceived value options up forward. Ideally would only come into consideration when their prices have dipped to the mid to high three hundred range or low four hundreds.
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Pretty happy with how my teams looking & don’t think I’ll touch it until preseason games commence!
I’m all aboard the J. Short train and don’t see why he can’t get back to an average of at least 98 like he did in the 2021, 2022 & 2023 season!
This year there appears to be a great deal of rookie priced players that have been in the system for a number of years… Hopefully the likes of Smith, El-Hawli, O’Driscall, E. Allan, Tsatas, Sheldrick, Hewett, Erasmus, Lynch, Powell-Pepper, Curtain & Stone are all named for round 1!!!
Would love any thoughts/feedback/criticism!
I’m all aboard the J. Short train and don’t see why he can’t get back to an average of at least 98 like he did in the 2021, 2022 & 2023 season!
This year there appears to be a great deal of rookie priced players that have been in the system for a number of years… Hopefully the likes of Smith, El-Hawli, O’Driscall, E. Allan, Tsatas, Sheldrick, Hewett, Erasmus, Lynch, Powell-Pepper, Curtain & Stone are all named for round 1!!!
Would love any thoughts/feedback/criticism!
Got a question for the masses ...
- have $129,600 to spend on a defender most likely to play
- already have Hawli, Smith, Allen etc ...
- Reid I could take but still have scorch marks over him from last season ....
- currently have Busslinger but open to suggestions ...
Happy with the rest of my team ... won't post it because it is very unique for now and my "structure" would probably be laughed at ...
- have $129,600 to spend on a defender most likely to play
- already have Hawli, Smith, Allen etc ...
- Reid I could take but still have scorch marks over him from last season ....
- currently have Busslinger but open to suggestions ...
Happy with the rest of my team ... won't post it because it is very unique for now and my "structure" would probably be laughed at ...
