Yeah the value is pretty tempting this year but remember there is a trap.
At the end of the year, you want to be running full premium or you will be losing ground in the overall and losing finals in your leagues.
The 10 MPs You mention with 7 having a view to being permanent is a concern. (Not having a go at you. I've got the same dilemma)
Fact is, it's majorly unlikely that you'll get 7 out of those 10 being best 6 or 8 in their line and that means they'll need upgrading. As a rule of thumb, it's 3 to upgrade a rookie to a premium and 2 to upgrade an MP.
In your example, if I read it right, you've started 6 premos, meaning you are at least 17 premos short of your desired end game. So immediately, that's a minimum of 2 * 17 = 34 trades up to 3 * 17 = 51 of your 40 trades.
As you mentioned, some of those MPs will be keepers so that drops those numbers a bit. However, you'll also note that we haven't yet earmarked any trades for corrections (4) and injuries (8).
So yep... heaps of value there but I reckon we could easily get trapped taking too much of a good thing
Most of that list are cheap enough to be picked for cash generation.
I'm personally looking like loading up in the forwards for the DPP as the keeper threshold is so much lower there that it greatly increase the keeper threshold.
Looking at the names available though:
Mills - Definitely has keeper potential, at his best he has #1 DEF potential.
Doedee - No keeper potential, imo but priced at 48 with 3 seasons of 80+ and a fourth at 77 has him capable of making 200k if the role is right. I'm not sure it will be as, imo, Andrews is a far better version of his best role, but we'll see.
Coleman - Keeper potential but I'd be surprised if he's available for round 1 the way things are looking. Similar to Doedee, he's got 200k potential though, which just makes him an expensive above average rookie type.
Bergman - I haven't seen his name mentioned a lot but he's very high on my radar, someone has to replace Houston and he's got the bonus of also being an excellent intercept marker. Evans also worth a mention here potentially.
Roberts - Posted above but there's some indicators he could put up keeper numbers.
There's a few others here as well.
Oliver - Obviously keeper potential.
Peatling - Very low keeper potential. He's awkwardly priced where the cash generation is also tough to pull off. Will be a big watch in preseason though, if he shows 100+ potential then that changes the equation.
Cumming - Borderline keeper potential as a DEF. Fitness the big question here but he's been mid 90s a couple of times when fit in teams with a lot of other strong rebounding options at GWS, at the Crows he'd be by far their clear best rebounder alongside Laird. Whether he can be fit enough to actually get on the park is the huge question here, price is fine.
Reid - Prodigious talent, I will be watching very closely in the preseason, if his engine is improved he could definitely push towards 110+ as early as this season. I'd put him in that Bont/Oliver category who went 103 and 111 in their 2nd seasons, I think he's a fair bit more refined than either of them were as well. In short, I rate him very highly.
My major concern on the mids is that there's very few bailout options popping up right now, albeit the rookie group looks strong so that's always an option.
Flynn - No keeper potential, imo, but if he's playing and fit he's got 200k in him and will outscore just about any other option at that price. No guarantee though.
Conway - Not as well priced and has the bye issue that Flynn doesn't but he's another to watch, very good ruckman who I think could push towards the 90s if he gets the #1 gig and none of the Cat's ruck shenanigans, I think the first is likely but the second might be even more likely unfortunately. Would really need to be cemented at that price.
Rucks are high risk because there's no way out of it when it fails. If Boyd is playing, starting him in the flex could be worthwhile as #1 ruck is a fairly good pathway to 80. The Marshall factor really makes me question that. Barnett playing as a KPD could be another option here but in a pretty good rookie crop I'm not sure you'd want him on field, albeit does provide a bit more security at least if you were to go Flynn/Boyd at R2/Flex.
Forwards are an absolute gold mine...
Macrae - #1 forward potential, he could be washed but if he's not then he's likely to be #1. Has had just one season outside of last season in his last 11 that wouldn't be the #1 forward on starting numbers and that was still good enough for 4th.
Daniel - #1 forward potential. 102 his best season as a rebounding defender.
Smith - Keeper potential. Has pushed close to 100 before. Mid 90s should probably do it.
Parker - Keeper potential. Will depend greatly on role and how they use him, their midfield is actually loaded so it was an odd team for mine for him to choose but if he's in the first 4 mids, he's probably a 90+ guy.
Maric - Keeper potential. Very much worth watching. Good ball using HB in a team that desperately needs that is the projected role. If he has it, no reason he can't put up 90s.
Phillipou - #1 forward potential. Elite talent that should have a pure midfield role this year and good protection around him with Steele and Macrae.
Bolton - Keeper potential, I'm not sure he's worth it over the less expensive names above given similar or even lower upside but do expect him to either flame out completely or push back towards the 90s of his past. Just depends on whether his head is in it, with some early bad signs but we'll see.
Greene - Keeper potential. Had a mare last year but one to watch.
Wood - Ditto.
Baker - Keeper potential. Role the question. I have no idea how they use him but as either a mid or HB, he's definitely got keeper potential. If it's forward then he's overpriced.
Kennedy - Keeper potential. I don't expect he gets the midfield role but if he does, then he scores very well.
Graham - Keeper potential. Always scored well as an inside mid, rarely used there as his role at Richmond was always to cover defensively for Martin after Lambert was done doing that. If he's in the first midfield group he could score very well. Eagles have big decisions there, to me it's Yeo and Reid and then a cluster of different types, Kelly is a butcher that runs well, Baker is classy but unproven, Graham is grunt (probably least needed alongside Yeo/Reid) and then there's a few of the kids who could put hands up also.
Thilthorpe - Keeper potential. This one is less likely, imo, but it's there. Was very limited last year after horrendous preseason but if he's fit he could take the league by storm, tremendous abilities.
Lukosius - No idea how they're using him. Given some of the forward injuries, that's seeming more likely now. As a defender though he's worth watching.
There's another 5 or 6 as well but basically, you've got a ton of options. Somehow almost none of the list above have the r0 bye either, it's actually crazy to rattle off 14 names and only 2 have the bye.
Obviously not all of that list will work. There's almost certainly only room for 2 of the 3 Eagles for example. Many are positional related and are probably less likely than likely to get the ideal roles but I'd personally be surprised if that list of 14 (and the other 5 or 6) don't produce 4 or 5 keeper options. The only way I really see it would be if there were some extreme DPP changes that change the landscape, for example Sheezel, Petracca, Bont, Heeney and Rozee types getting forward status and then unleashed into the mids. I'd bet good money that one of Macrae or Phillipou is a keeper (I'd bet on both also heading into the preseason).
My latest draft actually has 5 of that list in my team and I'm definitely open to another 3 of them if it works out that way. Doesn't hurt that many are DPP. A pretty sizeable chunk are also well and truly cheap enough to make 150k+ if they do only manage to move into the 80s region.
