Position 2025: MIDFIELDERS DISCUSSION

[Rowsus]

Weird year for Green

132 + (6)
120 > 131 (0)
116 > 119 (5)
97 > 115 (2)
72 > 96 (9)
5 (1)

It's a little outside the normal distribution you see for a 107 average.
7 years ago I posted a thread on the distribution of scores across certain SC averages.
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/the-anatomy-of-a-sc-average.3728/
When you compare the numbers, it's not miles off.

Players that averaged 100 or 110 from 2011 to 2017

There were 90 players that fitted the criteria I was looking at, and between them they played 1,743 games for me to analyse, or an average of 19.4 games/season. A smaller sample size than the previous one, as expected, but big enough to say it should hold up to scrutiny.

It may surprise some of you, that not only is it expected for a 110/game player to have a score below 66 (that on average is a 53!), but also another score below 77, and another 2 scores on top of that below 88. Those 4 games typically average 70, and yet the player goes onto average 110. In many cases there is a reason for one of two of these poor scores ie. injured during the game etc, but the bottom line is, they are typically there!

 

[Chumpion]

After doing a bit of data digging trying to find potential breakouts and undervalued players, one player in particular has stood out to me so far. I was not considering this player whatsoever before this I did this research but now I'm having a really hard time leaving them out.

Will Day (23) 2024, 16 games/14 full games
SC Avg: 91.2
Adj Avg: 100.6 (excluding subbed games)
PPM: 1.06, top 20 of all midfielders last year
PPD (points per disposal): 4.7, 2nd highest of all midfielders behind Bont

(PPD is a good indicator to which players rely on lots of touches for points, generally 4 is an above average score. Accumulator players such as Parish, Whitfield etc average around 3 PPD. 4.7 is a really nice number for Day in that there's a bit of safety in that he doesn't need to rack it up to score, very similar to Bont.)

After having a slow start coming off injury he averaged 111 after returning to his normal TOG%, this also includes a tagged game in R21 by Bedford scoring a 53.

I didn't really understand the hype around this pick but now I'm starting to get it, I'll still have to look into his scoring breakdowns but going off raw data this is looking like it could be a very promising. Personally the only risks I see is the small sample size, it would be nice to have a bit more data but his previous season was fairly similar by the numbers. His body is another issue but starting him mitigates that. Probably the biggest one is the tag risk, he'll be the #1 target for that and can see him getting a few early.

I'm sort of wondering if there's merit to fading until after the bye and picking him up for his soft run afterward as his first couple of games are historically tough for mids. Likely he gets tagged in the GWS game as well. Probably a round 0 decision.

Absolute jet and has huge potential, but for me I think there is a bit too much risk attached to starting him and given the tag/injury concerns there is a good chance his price never gets unreachable.

Everyone has their own approaches but for me the key thing I look for when spending up on a player is certainty. Nothing kills a season more than having to play merry-go-round with $450-$500k players that haven't worked or are "just" not hitting genuine premium levels. They become a stone around the neck because they aren't your biggest problem but also are leaking points to others. For me, Day fits the too risky category where I don't see the potential for him starting at premium levels being higher than the reasons I can see him hurting my team. I'd rather pay %550k because I was wrong than have to deal with a $450k issue at a time where everyone else is looking at upgrading and adding premiums to their team.

 

[donnybuang]

I’m getting flashbacks of last year, and they’re not good ones!!!

More than happy to pass on him for now & potentially take the punt on him if he starts slow and comes down in price!

Yep, I traded him in the week of that 5 point game.

 

[Post Nut Clarity]

Yep, I traded him in the week of that 5 point game.

Ouch!!! I started with him so got to experience the good and the bad.

 

[wogitalia]

Absolute jet and has huge potential, but for me I think there is a bit too much risk attached to starting him and given the tag/injury concerns there is a good chance his price never gets unreachable.

Everyone has their own approaches but for me the key thing I look for when spending up on a player is certainty. Nothing kills a season more than having to play merry-go-round with $450-$500k players that haven't worked or are "just" not hitting genuine premium levels. They become a stone around the neck because they aren't your biggest problem but also are leaking points to others. For me, Day fits the too risky category where I don't see the potential for him starting at premium levels being higher than the reasons I can see him hurting my team. I'd rather pay %550k because I was wrong than have to deal with a $450k issue at a time where everyone else is looking at upgrading and adding premiums to their team.

Can definitely attest to this.

Throw in his bye negating a huge amount of the value if he does work and I tend to agree that he's a very risky pick. That's without either of us mentioning his absolutely horrific durability record either.

He definitely could be a fantastic pick, agree he's got a ton of talent but he's extremely risky in a price region you generally want a bit more safety.

I say this knowing that it's going to take a bit to get me off the Harley Reid wagon that has similar issues, though his injury today definitely has loosened the nuts on a couple of the wheels...

It feels weird to me how few midfielders I've already narrowed my selection group down to right now.

Basically have Bont, Butters, Serong, Cripps, Brayshaw, LDU, Green, Crouch, Petracca, Dawson, Young, Richards, Rozee, Taranto, Parish, Oliver, Cerra, Ashcroft and Reid as the only guys above 400k I'm really looking at. A few names may throw themselves up there and several of those names are very speculative in themselves. Really the only decision I'm struggling with is how to deal with the r12 bye as my favourites basically all have it. Pretty much going to have to forsake at least two of Rozee, Butters, Cripps, Bont and LDU. I'm kind of hoping Rozee plays forward a lot and rules himself out as a starting pick. LDU I think is my first picked right now so picking from the others is very hard as all have strong cases. Not liking how heavy that r13 bye is starting to look in my drafts either, strong chance that I've got two missing from each line bar rucks come the bye!

 

[Chumpion]

Can definitely attest to this.

Throw in his bye negating a huge amount of the value if he does work and I tend to agree that he's a very risky pick. That's without either of us mentioning his absolutely horrific durability record either.

He definitely could be a fantastic pick, agree he's got a ton of talent but he's extremely risky in a price region you generally want a bit more safety.

I say this knowing that it's going to take a bit to get me off the Harley Reid wagon that has similar issues, though his injury today definitely has loosened the nuts on a couple of the wheels...

It feels weird to me how few midfielders I've already narrowed my selection group down to right now.

Basically have Bont, Butters, Serong, Cripps, Brayshaw, LDU, Green, Crouch, Petracca, Dawson, Young, Richards, Rozee, Taranto, Parish, Oliver, Cerra, Ashcroft and Reid as the only guys above 400k I'm really looking at. A few names may throw themselves up there and several of those names are very speculative in themselves. Really the only decision I'm struggling with is how to deal with the r12 bye as my favourites basically all have it. Pretty much going to have to forsake at least two of Rozee, Butters, Cripps, Bont and LDU. I'm kind of hoping Rozee plays forward a lot and rules himself out as a starting pick. LDU I think is my first picked right now so picking from the others is very hard as all have strong cases. Not liking how heavy that r13 bye is starting to look in my drafts either, strong chance that I've got two missing from each line bar rucks come the bye!

Yeah round 12 is become a huge problem! So many of favourite or most confident picks have that bye and I’m having a real challenge working out who I can cut! I almost need some preseason issues to split them otherwise it’s a headache waiting to happen. saving grace is there is a mix of rookies, MPers and premiums, so some of them are meant to be traded at some point. Maybe I just accept I’ll need to trade them going into their bye and worry about the rest later…

 

[BIGB0Y]

Can definitely attest to this.

Throw in his bye negating a huge amount of the value if he does work and I tend to agree that he's a very risky pick. That's without either of us mentioning his absolutely horrific durability record either.

He definitely could be a fantastic pick, agree he's got a ton of talent but he's extremely risky in a price region you generally want a bit more safety.

I say this knowing that it's going to take a bit to get me off the Harley Reid wagon that has similar issues, though his injury today definitely has loosened the nuts on a couple of the wheels...

It feels weird to me how few midfielders I've already narrowed my selection group down to right now.

Basically have Bont, Butters, Serong, Cripps, Brayshaw, LDU, Green, Crouch, Petracca, Dawson, Young, Richards, Rozee, Taranto, Parish, Oliver, Cerra, Ashcroft and Reid as the only guys above 400k I'm really looking at. A few names may throw themselves up there and several of those names are very speculative in themselves. Really the only decision I'm struggling with is how to deal with the r12 bye as my favourites basically all have it. Pretty much going to have to forsake at least two of Rozee, Butters, Cripps, Bont and LDU. I'm kind of hoping Rozee plays forward a lot and rules himself out as a starting pick. LDU I think is my first picked right now so picking from the others is very hard as all have strong cases. Not liking how heavy that r13 bye is starting to look in my drafts either, strong chance that I've got two missing from each line bar rucks come the bye!

How many north players you starting with? I've currently got 4 without LDU.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Does anyone see any impact on Marcus Bontempelli due to the unavailability of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan?

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Does anyone see any impact on Marcus Bontempelli due to the unavailability of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan?

Treloar missing too. No impact.

 

[Singapore Flyers]

Does anyone see any impact on Marcus Bontempelli due to the unavailability of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan?

It’s a possibility. With Darcy Naughton and JUH, Bont drifting forward perhaps made the forward line too big. So as much as they like him forward, the balance wasn’t there. With Treloar out, they maybe don’t have the full luxury of Bont spending too much time forward. If their midfield becomes Richards, Libba, with a share of Bont, Kennedy and Sanders (and anyone else Bevo wants to surprise us with), it feels like their stellar midfield regresses a little.

 

[wogitalia]

How many north players you starting with? I've currently got 4 without LDU.

Outside injury I can't see any way I don't have Sheezel, he's in a different league to every other defender option.

I've got Parker and Daniel until they prove that they're not options. They're both firmly in that "prove you're not the right pick" part of the list for me. I'm not sold that Parker is a keeper, I dare say they will lean a bit early on but will probably be looking to phase him out through the season to give more time to Wardlaw, McKercher, O'Sullivan and the likes but could be wrong and they may use him all year.

Xerri is very high on my list but I'm not at all settled in the rucks, I think I prefer Gawn just for the bye but if Xerri looks like he finished last year I'll have a hard time not starting him.

I think I have LDU in the mids ahead of Xerri in the rucks if it came down to it.

Definitely watching McKercher, O'Sullivan, Duursma, CCJ, Bergman and Goater as well, not sure on return dates for a few of them but would consider if they're there at round one. To be fair only McKercher is a bye factor of that group unless the CCJ/Goater types are returning a lot later and become downgrade options.

So probably looking at somewhere in the 3-5 range right now.

Problem is there's also a few Dogs, Port and Carlton guys I like also so going to take some managing.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Outside injury I can't see any way I don't have Sheezel, he's in a different league to every other defender option.

I've got Parker and Daniel until they prove that they're not options. They're both firmly in that "prove you're not the right pick" part of the list for me. I'm not sold that Parker is a keeper, I dare say they will lean a bit early on but will probably be looking to phase him out through the season to give more time to Wardlaw, McKercher, O'Sullivan and the likes but could be wrong and they may use him all year.

Xerri is very high on my list but I'm not at all settled in the rucks, I think I prefer Gawn just for the bye but if Xerri looks like he finished last year I'll have a hard time not starting him.

I think I have LDU in the mids ahead of Xerri in the rucks if it came down to it.

Definitely watching McKercher, O'Sullivan, Duursma, CCJ, Bergman and Goater as well, not sure on return dates for a few of them but would consider if they're there at round one. To be fair only McKercher is a bye factor of that group unless the CCJ/Goater types are returning a lot later and become downgrade options.

So probably looking at somewhere in the 3-5 range right now.

Problem is there's also a few Dogs, Port and Carlton guys I like also so going to take some managing.

Thats the problem, the round 12 byes is a killer. Ive capped myself with 3 north players when easily i could pick 5. Xerri, Sheezel and Daniels are close to must haves imo. Where Parker is still awkwardly priced and wont hurt if he did ave 90, LDU is a gun but how much will he go up in price if he was ave 115-120... would rather butters and bont before LDU regardless an they all share the same bye.

 

[donnybuang]

Thats the problem, the round 12 byes is a killer. Ive capped myself with 3 north players when easily i could pick 5. Xerri, Sheezel and Daniels are close to must haves imo. Where Parker is still awkwardly priced and wont hurt if he did ave 90, LDU is a gun but how much will he go up in price if he was ave 115-120... would rather butters and bont before LDU regardless an they all share the same bye.

You just know LDU is going to throw in a sequence of 70-80ish scores at some stage and drop down to 400k

 

[Peter56]

meaning he's always going to be at risk of a poor score or run of poor scores. He strikes me as the sort of player that "could" average 115 but it'll have a significant number of sub 100 scores o***et by his high ceiling games.

Would this make Green a good flex candidate? 🤔

 

[Connoisseur]

Would this make Green a good flex candidate? 🤔

Best not to view any starting premium/premium as a flex candidate, otherwise why bother paying for their services or at max price if you have no confidence they can be in your best 18 or 22 in any given round. On field positioning does not matter for the dropped score and best to retain flexibility. Later in the season once you have reached “full premium”/ “no rookies”, then you may opt for a couple more higher variance options.

 

[Chumpion]

Would this make Green a good flex candidate? 🤔

I would strongly strongly STRONGLY encourage everyone to not view any player as a flex player because of the high ceiling but low floor. Especially early.
The benefit of the best 22 from 23 is you drop an unexpected bad score. Intentionally setting up the team to increase the likelihood or risk of bad scores is foolish.
Late season with a full premium team there could be more appetite for a risky HF/LC player, but that should be the furthest thinking while rookies are still on field.
Basically ask yourself, “would I have picked this player with last year’s rules?” If yes, fair play. If no, don’t change that just because the flex position exists this year.

 

[Arsenal]

I've got one spot which i've been flipping between, Green/LDU/Anderson/Rowell & Steele. Green is coming out on top but i really want to pick Anderson as a POD. Although at that price range $550-599 you've got a decent amount of players to choose from including Cripps/Erol/Sinclair. I'm losing sleep at night!

 

[Russty_]

I've got one spot which i've been flipping between, Green/LDU/Anderson/Rowell & Steele. Green is coming out on top but i really want to pick Anderson as a POD. Although at that price range $550-599 you've got a decent amount of players to choose from including Cripps/Erol/Sinclair. I'm losing sleep at night!

I think Anderson could be a great pod and has proven he can ton up and then some. He just needs to get rid of those odd 50 ish type scores which he got 3 of last year.

 

[quezydilla]

After doing a bit of data digging trying to find potential breakouts and undervalued players, one player in particular has stood out to me so far. I was not considering this player whatsoever before this I did this research but now I'm having a really hard time leaving them out.

Will Day (23) 2024, 16 games/14 full games
SC Avg: 91.2
Adj Avg: 100.6 (excluding subbed games)
PPM: 1.06, top 20 of all midfielders last year
PPD (points per disposal): 4.7, 2nd highest of all midfielders behind Bont

(PPD is a good indicator to which players rely on lots of touches for points, generally 4 is an above average score. Accumulator players such as Parish, Whitfield etc average around 3 PPD. 4.7 is a really nice number for Day in that there's a bit of safety in that he doesn't need to rack it up to score, very similar to Bont.)

After having a slow start coming off injury he averaged 111 after returning to his normal TOG%, this also includes a tagged game in R21 by Bedford scoring a 53.

I didn't really understand the hype around this pick but now I'm starting to get it, I'll still have to look into his scoring breakdowns but going off raw data this is looking like it could be a very promising. Personally the only risks I see is the small sample size, it would be nice to have a bit more data but his previous season was fairly similar by the numbers. His body is another issue but starting him mitigates that. Probably the biggest one is the tag risk, he'll be the #1 target for that and can see him getting a few early.

I'm sort of wondering if there's merit to fading until after the bye and picking him up for his soft run afterward as his first couple of games are historically tough for mids. Likely he gets tagged in the GWS game as well. Probably a round 0 decision.

My plan is to start Cerra and because we know that might be a rollercoaster, potentially pivot to Day/Ashcroft after their byes if Cerra goes pearshaped and the other booms.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1889071161646125534