Discussion 2025: Cash Cows
- Thread starter freowho
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I think a few of the rookies priced players have put their hands up recently, Tsatas was fantastic to my eyes today, Draper and Curtin looked very good yesterday. Jagga should be a lock for most teams. Zac Reid looks to play rd 1 (durability obviously an issue). Conor Stone seems probable and I think we do get at least another GWS rookie priced player for r 1. That's before we get to possibles like Knevitt, L Ashcroft etc. The small forwards are a bit of a trap usually but Kako and Davidson could be OK. Jack Martin could be an option, maybe Prior in defense.
I'm overall more worried about defensive rookies at this stage than other lines and that will probably dictate the structure in my starting team.
I'm overall more worried about defensive rookies at this stage than other lines and that will probably dictate the structure in my starting team.
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Issue with Reidy is just actually watching him play. Hopefully he looks good tonight. He has a very limited footballing background and I'm pretty certain didn't really play a full season at ruck at any level until 2022. He played one game in 2021, but that was unrelated to injury. That lack of grounding shows at the AFL level.
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I liked the look of the following today (no order):
Whitlock - Really solid for North in the intra-club in the ones with all their KP defenders playing, slotted in as a 3rd tall and looked very decent. Extra points for the super rare and extremely valuable D/F positioning.
Reid - Pure bench but was solid and the potential is obvious, surely has to play if fit.
Hayes - More of an alternative, basically if Reid isn't there round 1 I'd think he's the guy who replaces him. Also a bench only guy.
Konstanty - Good pressure small forward in a team lacking that badly. Another bench up to potential loop option up forward.
Davidson - Really looked good on the wing for WB, cheap forward option that would be strong loop to fieldable level if he wins that role. Dogs haven't really got any great wingers so he's definitely got a chance to claim one.
Hansen Jr - Covering a lot more ground than last year, I don't think he's likely to be needed but one of him and Konstanty likely to be there, obviously the cheaper price and better fantasy profile of Konstanty would be preferable.
Kako - Another small forward at a premium price. He was really solid today and he does a bit of everything which can help the scoring. Tackle work the most important aspect. Similar to Konstanty he's bench to loopable for mine.
Erasmus - Think he gets pushed out when Young and Bolton slot in but he's a chance and he can score in the right role.
NOD - Strong scoring potential that he's proven in the past. Definitely a spot there if he can win it and he's got the potential that justifies playing him over some of the other options. A couple of names that could hurt him weren't playing though.
O'Sullivan - Wing role, elite talent. At that price you ideally want reliable on field scoring, albeit lot of best 18 to start the season eases that a bit, he's got the potential for big scores though in the role.
Tsatas - Top draft pick helps, he was very good today. The question is what impact Parish and Durham have on his role, has not been good outside that role so far and doesn't really have the skillset that makes it likely so probably has to beat one of them out for the 4th midfield spot (Merrett and Caldwell the other two). If he could show some polish with the ball that would really help, he was okay in this area as a junior so there's hope but it was a hot mess today, it would be a massive bonus if he can show that skill because right now Merrett is the only guy in their midfield who is even at a below average level as a kick (Merrett is in the elite of the elite) as all of Caldwell, Parish and Durham can butcher by foot so would be huge if he can be the other spread and kick option as that would differentiate.
Prior - I don't think he's there round one if everyone is available but he's fringe and will score better than most if he is playing.
El-Hawli - He was very underwhelming but in the side in a role they do need on the wing. Be nice to see him get a bit more ball next game, was pretty tough conditions for the wingers with Bailey Williams, Jones and Harmes all struggling to impact as well. Davidson was the best of the lot and he wasn't exactly prolific either.
Urquhart - I doubt he plays early without injuries but he looks a very good downgrade option in the future if he does break in. He was actually probably the most impressive of anyone on this list but it was for the 2nds and that Kanga midfield is loaded.
Whitlock - Really solid for North in the intra-club in the ones with all their KP defenders playing, slotted in as a 3rd tall and looked very decent. Extra points for the super rare and extremely valuable D/F positioning.
Reid - Pure bench but was solid and the potential is obvious, surely has to play if fit.
Hayes - More of an alternative, basically if Reid isn't there round 1 I'd think he's the guy who replaces him. Also a bench only guy.
Konstanty - Good pressure small forward in a team lacking that badly. Another bench up to potential loop option up forward.
Davidson - Really looked good on the wing for WB, cheap forward option that would be strong loop to fieldable level if he wins that role. Dogs haven't really got any great wingers so he's definitely got a chance to claim one.
Hansen Jr - Covering a lot more ground than last year, I don't think he's likely to be needed but one of him and Konstanty likely to be there, obviously the cheaper price and better fantasy profile of Konstanty would be preferable.
Kako - Another small forward at a premium price. He was really solid today and he does a bit of everything which can help the scoring. Tackle work the most important aspect. Similar to Konstanty he's bench to loopable for mine.
Erasmus - Think he gets pushed out when Young and Bolton slot in but he's a chance and he can score in the right role.
NOD - Strong scoring potential that he's proven in the past. Definitely a spot there if he can win it and he's got the potential that justifies playing him over some of the other options. A couple of names that could hurt him weren't playing though.
O'Sullivan - Wing role, elite talent. At that price you ideally want reliable on field scoring, albeit lot of best 18 to start the season eases that a bit, he's got the potential for big scores though in the role.
Tsatas - Top draft pick helps, he was very good today. The question is what impact Parish and Durham have on his role, has not been good outside that role so far and doesn't really have the skillset that makes it likely so probably has to beat one of them out for the 4th midfield spot (Merrett and Caldwell the other two). If he could show some polish with the ball that would really help, he was okay in this area as a junior so there's hope but it was a hot mess today, it would be a massive bonus if he can show that skill because right now Merrett is the only guy in their midfield who is even at a below average level as a kick (Merrett is in the elite of the elite) as all of Caldwell, Parish and Durham can butcher by foot so would be huge if he can be the other spread and kick option as that would differentiate.
Prior - I don't think he's there round one if everyone is available but he's fringe and will score better than most if he is playing.
El-Hawli - He was very underwhelming but in the side in a role they do need on the wing. Be nice to see him get a bit more ball next game, was pretty tough conditions for the wingers with Bailey Williams, Jones and Harmes all struggling to impact as well. Davidson was the best of the lot and he wasn't exactly prolific either.
Urquhart - I doubt he plays early without injuries but he looks a very good downgrade option in the future if he does break in. He was actually probably the most impressive of anyone on this list but it was for the 2nds and that Kanga midfield is loaded.
Uncontested players always look good in preseason games. We already have exposed form from O'Driscoll and it looks like a 60 average. He could be a better player this time around but the role looks the same. If we do have a lot of players in his price range he wouldn't be the near the top of the list.
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I think we might have too high an expectation on first year rookies. In the past 3 drafts only 5 players have managed to average over 70 in their first year.
This is not exhaustive, but I just took a look at a few of the top non KP players from the past 3 drafts
2021
JHF 63.4
Callaghan 55.4
Naicos 91.3 (averaged 77.73 in first 11 games)
Rachelle 52.2
Ward 63.8
Erasmus 41.8
NWM 51.8
2022
Ashcroft 84.5 (averaged 77.56 first 9 games)
Sheezel 99.5
Wardlaw 65.4
Humphrey 59.3
McKenzie 48.6
Ginbey 63.5
Philippou 63.5
2023
Watson 65.5
Windsor 59.6
Mckercher 88.5 (averaged 77.67 first 9 games)
Duursma. 36.1
Reid 80.5 (averaged 73.22 first 9 games)
Sanders 62.9
So across the last 3 drafts, only 5 managed to average over 70. Three of those played off half back (Naicos, Sheezel, Mckercher). The only 2 playing more midfield were Ashcroft and Reid.
apologies if I have missed someone, but I guess my point is for O’Driscoll, a 70 point return for the same price point as the top end rookies is actually a really good result and potentially puts him at the pointy end of the list.
This is not exhaustive, but I just took a look at a few of the top non KP players from the past 3 drafts
2021
JHF 63.4
Callaghan 55.4
Naicos 91.3 (averaged 77.73 in first 11 games)
Rachelle 52.2
Ward 63.8
Erasmus 41.8
NWM 51.8
2022
Ashcroft 84.5 (averaged 77.56 first 9 games)
Sheezel 99.5
Wardlaw 65.4
Humphrey 59.3
McKenzie 48.6
Ginbey 63.5
Philippou 63.5
2023
Watson 65.5
Windsor 59.6
Mckercher 88.5 (averaged 77.67 first 9 games)
Duursma. 36.1
Reid 80.5 (averaged 73.22 first 9 games)
Sanders 62.9
So across the last 3 drafts, only 5 managed to average over 70. Three of those played off half back (Naicos, Sheezel, Mckercher). The only 2 playing more midfield were Ashcroft and Reid.
apologies if I have missed someone, but I guess my point is for O’Driscoll, a 70 point return for the same price point as the top end rookies is actually a really good result and potentially puts him at the pointy end of the list.
Interesting one for O'Driscoll is that Sharp got to 76.3 @ their Bye last season.
But do they play "fat" wing or "narrow" wing and which one is which out of O'Driscoll & Sharp ?
Remember watching a few Freo games last season and Sharp just kept running up and down and barely being used at all.
Agree though 65-70 at his starting price could/should make some reasonable 💰.
Wait and see what happens in the next few games
But do they play "fat" wing or "narrow" wing and which one is which out of O'Driscoll & Sharp ?
Remember watching a few Freo games last season and Sharp just kept running up and down and barely being used at all.
Agree though 65-70 at his starting price could/should make some reasonable 💰.
Wait and see what happens in the next few games
Good post.
Thought I'd have a closer look. I didn't include Sheezel because he is a unicorn. Rozee had an impressive first year as well as a high half forward.
We actually had 4 good wingers last year that I thought of quickly.
And the players in the bottom image are all a bit special.
I highlighted the 90+ scores in yellow.
Even though these 4 wingers all worked out, they are still relying on games that are less likely to happen, less yellow, compared to players with kick ins and CBA's.
The other thing I found interesting was how Daicos, Ashcroft and McKercher all got a second wind. Hard decision to hold but maybe looping off the bench is a consideration. While Reid flatlined.
Thought I'd have a closer look. I didn't include Sheezel because he is a unicorn. Rozee had an impressive first year as well as a high half forward.
We actually had 4 good wingers last year that I thought of quickly.
And the players in the bottom image are all a bit special.
I highlighted the 90+ scores in yellow.
Even though these 4 wingers all worked out, they are still relying on games that are less likely to happen, less yellow, compared to players with kick ins and CBA's.
The other thing I found interesting was how Daicos, Ashcroft and McKercher all got a second wind. Hard decision to hold but maybe looping off the bench is a consideration. While Reid flatlined.