Discussion 2025: Cash Cows

[Darkie]

I think we might have too high an expectation on first year rookies. In the past 3 drafts only 5 players have managed to average over 70 in their first year.
This is not exhaustive, but I just took a look at a few of the top non KP players from the past 3 drafts
2021
JHF 63.4
Callaghan 55.4
Naicos 91.3 (averaged 77.73 in first 11 games)
Rachelle 52.2
Ward 63.8
Erasmus 41.8
NWM 51.8

2022
Ashcroft 84.5 (averaged 77.56 first 9 games)
Sheezel 99.5
Wardlaw 65.4
Humphrey 59.3
McKenzie 48.6
Ginbey 63.5
Philippou 63.5

2023
Watson 65.5
Windsor 59.6
Mckercher 88.5 (averaged 77.67 first 9 games)
Duursma. 36.1
Reid 80.5 (averaged 73.22 first 9 games)
Sanders 62.9

So across the last 3 drafts, only 5 managed to average over 70. Three of those played off half back (Naicos, Sheezel, Mckercher). The only 2 playing more midfield were Ashcroft and Reid.
apologies if I have missed someone, but I guess my point is for O’Driscoll, a 70 point return for the same price point as the top end rookies is actually a really good result and potentially puts him at the pointy end of the list.

Some great info here.

The thing that stood out for me is the draft picks that the 70+ scorers went at:

H Reid - pick 1
McKercher - pick 2
W Ashcroft - pick 2, possibly 1 if not father-son
Sheezel - pick 3
N Daicos - pick 4, would have been 1 or 2 if not father-son

So they were basically all top 3 pick quality. 4 of the 5 essentially being #1 or 2, with Sheezel only one spot behind.

This suggests to me that if coaches are forecasting 70+ from their new draftees, they likely need to be extremely high draft picks - or have some other unusual factor (eg playing HBF) in their favour.

Other young players take longer to come on.

 

[freowho]

Some great info here.

The thing that stood out for me is the draft picks that the 70+ scorers went at:

H Reid - pick 1
McKercher - pick 2
W Ashcroft - pick 2, possibly 1 if not father-son
Sheezel - pick 3
N Daicos - pick 4, would have been 1 or 2 if not father-son

So they were basically all top 3 pick quality. 4 of the 5 essentially being #1 or 2, with Sheezel only one spot behind.

This suggests to me that if coaches are forecasting 70+ from their new draftees, they likely need to be extremely high draft picks - or have some other unusual factor (eg playing HBF) in their favour.

Other young players take longer to come on.

This year was supposedly a very high pedigree class. Yet Lalor was a bit speculative!

 

[wogitalia]

Some great info here.

The thing that stood out for me is the draft picks that the 70+ scorers went at:

H Reid - pick 1
McKercher - pick 2
W Ashcroft - pick 2, possibly 1 if not father-son
Sheezel - pick 3
N Daicos - pick 4, would have been 1 or 2 if not father-son

So they were basically all top 3 pick quality. 4 of the 5 essentially being #1 or 2, with Sheezel only one spot behind.

This suggests to me that if coaches are forecasting 70+ from their new draftees, they likely need to be extremely high draft picks - or have some other unusual factor (eg playing HBF) in their favour.

Other young players take longer to come on.

Worth noting that only Daicos wasn't in the first 2 midfielders taken as well, Daicos being 3rd and almost certainly pushed back by the F/S shenanigans.

I don't love the top picks this year though. Lalor feels a bit more JHF than the above list. FOS I don't love the role, funnily enough has a lot of Finn Callaghan about it, who was the 2nd midfielder between JHF and Daicos. Jagga I like but I'm not sure he can win the role at Carlton, if he does he's on the Ashcroft path and I think will do very well but that's a tough midfield to break into for a kid. Draper is in a similar position to Jagga, Crows have a fair few established mids he has to beat, expect his role wont be good if he does play. Ashcroft I don't like this year, can't see the midfield minutes so role will be bad and not sure if he's even best 22. Maybe he can take a wing spot but then it's still in the FOS commentary. Be interesting to see if they do squeeze him in somewhere. The two Melbourne boys both with the same issues.

Travaglia definitely has a chance at a bad side.

It's likely one of these will become an obvious choice by round 1 but I think it's a talented group that's mostly in bad situations.

On the flipside there's a ton of non-top pick "rookies" that look very decent this year, so not a huge issue, imo.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Lalor I'm fairly wary of at price. His calling card is his inside game but it's a bit different bullying other kids versus the likes of Patrick Cripps who he will face round one. He probably will need time to adjust to the level of the AFL.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Maric not named in the Eagles squad for Monday and played for the ‘B’ team in their most recent intra club. Doesn’t seem as though he’s in their round 1 plans.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Maric not named in the Eagles squad for Monday and played for the ‘B’ team in their most recent intra club. Doesn’t seem as though he’s in their round 1 plans.

I don't rate him at all as a player from what I've seen.

 

[TopBillings]

Maric not named in the Eagles squad for Monday and played for the ‘B’ team in their most recent intra club. Doesn’t seem as though he’s in their round 1 plans.

Interesting.

Had him locked in @ F5 maybe he’s not a lock as I thought he was

 

[warewolves]

I think we might have too high an expectation on first year rookies. In the past 3 drafts only 5 players have managed to average over 70 in their first year.
This is not exhaustive, but I just took a look at a few of the top non KP players from the past 3 drafts
2021
JHF 63.4
Callaghan 55.4
Naicos 91.3 (averaged 77.73 in first 11 games)
Rachelle 52.2
Ward 63.8
Erasmus 41.8
NWM 51.8

2022
Ashcroft 84.5 (averaged 77.56 first 9 games)
Sheezel 99.5
Wardlaw 65.4
Humphrey 59.3
McKenzie 48.6
Ginbey 63.5
Philippou 63.5

2023
Watson 65.5
Windsor 59.6
Mckercher 88.5 (averaged 77.67 first 9 games)
Duursma. 36.1
Reid 80.5 (averaged 73.22 first 9 games)
Sanders 62.9

So across the last 3 drafts, only 5 managed to average over 70. Three of those played off half back (Naicos, Sheezel, Mckercher). The only 2 playing more midfield were Ashcroft and Reid.
apologies if I have missed someone, but I guess my point is for O’Driscoll, a 70 point return for the same price point as the top end rookies is actually a really good result and potentially puts him at the pointy end of the list.

Thats a very good point you make about O’Driscoll @Singapore Flyers. It’s also his fourth year in the system.. he’s scored Ok in the past as well.. think I’ll be taking him before any of the comparably priced first year rookies.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Maric not named in the Eagles squad for Monday and played for the ‘B’ team in their most recent intra club. Doesn’t seem as though he’s in their round 1 plans.

Interesting.

Had him locked in @ F5 maybe he’s not a lock as I thought he was

this is the last chance for the eagles to look at several potential SPP additions due to a recent long term injury to Sheeds, only one will be selected.

to allow for this, several players not selected per Rhino

re Maric, think he is one of 7 to 8 defenders that will be used in a game, which may limit his upside. Good kick, however players like Ginbey have the role to start a quarter I expect.

 

[Professor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891041124136939694

View: https://Twitter.com/Jim_Kotsakis/status/1891041124136939694

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891059582320926969

View: https://Twitter.com/Jim_Kotsakis/status/1891059582320926969

 

[Erek22]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891041124136939694

View: https://Twitter.com/Jim_Kotsakis/status/1891041124136939694

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891059582320926969

View: https://Twitter.com/Jim_Kotsakis/status/1891059582320926969

Was hoping Shananhan or Barnett would be in that squad.

 

[Russty_]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891041124136939694

View: https://Twitter.com/Jim_Kotsakis/status/1891041124136939694

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1891059582320926969

View: https://Twitter.com/Jim_Kotsakis/status/1891059582320926969

Jim, with the connections! I like knowing a celebrity

 

[Professor]

Jim, with the connections! I like knowing a celebrity

lol, far from it Russ.

 

[Spots]

I don't rate him at all as a player from what I've seen.

He seems a pretty smart footballer from what I’ve seen, have seen him make some really good decisions on field. Doesn’t necessarily make him a good footballer though.

 

[Spots]

I feel this is definitely the year to be jumping on the 2nd and 3rd year rookies who are finally cracking it into the seniors. Hewett, NOD, Tsatas, etc. just need to find a few basement price players for the bench to generate cash with their 50’s and 60’s.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Big watch on Bo Allan today in WC’s practice match against Richmond. Hoping that he plays a solid game in a nice half-back role.

I don’t know about anybody else, but he is absolutely crucial to my structure at D6 as I can’t think of any other cheap rookie in defence that I’m comfortable with fielding at this point in time.

 

[BIGB0Y]

Big watch on Bo Allan today in WC’s practice match against Richmond. Hoping that he plays a solid game in a nice half-back role.

I don’t know about anybody else, but he is absolutely crucial to my structure at D6 as I can’t think of any other cheap rookie in defence that I’m comfortable with fielding at this point in time.

He is my D6 also, hopefully he goes well. Also looking at Jacob Blight for the tigers. I'm also fielding Hewett in the fwd line.

 

[Singapore Flyers]

He is my D6 also, hopefully he goes well. Also looking at Jacob Blight for the tigers. I'm also fielding Hewett in the fwd line.

K Smith is another hopeful for me. Early days there was talk of him having a distributor role off half back. But I fear he has dropped down the pecking order in preseason. I also have Hutchinson at the moment. I checked the ownership and he is 1%. I didn’t realize he’d be such a Pod. But with so many good cheaper options available, I can understand it.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

K Smith is another hopeful for me. Early days there was talk of him having a distributor role off half back. But I fear he has dropped down the pecking order in preseason. I also have Hutchinson at the moment. I checked the ownership and he is 1%. I didn’t realize he’d be such a Pod. But with so many good cheaper options available, I can understand it.

I was also hopeful for Smith earlier this pre-season but he’s constantly been on the ‘B’ team in match sims.

Unfortunately we won’t be able to learn a whole lot from a Richmond perspective with the team they’re fielding today.

 

[Juzzo]

Big watch on Bo Allan today in WC’s practice match against Richmond. Hoping that he plays a solid game in a nice half-back role.

I don’t know about anybody else, but he is absolutely crucial to my structure at D6 as I can’t think of any other cheap rookie in defence that I’m comfortable with fielding at this point in time.

Whitlock maybe